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A “Well-to-Propeller” Life Cycle Assessment of maritime transport was performed with a European geographical focus. Four typical types of vessels with specific operational profiles were assessed: a container vessel and a tanker (both with 2-stroke engines), a passenger roll-on/roll-off (Ro-Pax) and a cruise vessel (both with 4-stroke engines). All main engines were dual fuel operated with Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) or Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). Alternative onshore and offshore fuel supply chains were considered. Primary energy use and greenhouse gas emissions were assessed. Raw material extraction was found to be the most impactful life cycle stage (~90% of total energy use). Regarding greenhouse gases, liquefaction was the key issue. When transitioning from HFO to LNG, the systems were mainly influenced by a reduction in cargo capacity due to bunkering requirements and methane slip, which depends on the fuel supply chain (onshore has 64% more slip than offshore) and the engine type (4-stroke engines have 20% more slip than 2-stroke engines). The combination of alternative fuel supply chains and specific operational profiles allowed for a complete system assessment. The results demonstrated that multiple opposing drivers affect the environmental performance of maritime transport, a useful insight towards establishing emission abatement strategies.

AbstractOcean ecosystems are at the forefront of the climate and biodiversity crises, yet we lack a unified approach to assess their state and inform sustainable policies. This blueprint is designed around research capabilities and cross-sectoral partnerships. We highlight priorities including integrating basin-scale observation, modelling and genomic approaches to understand Atlantic oceanography and ecosystem connectivity; improving ecosystem mapping; identifying potential tipping points in deep and open ocean ecosystems; understanding compound impacts of multiple stressors including warming, acidification and deoxygenation; enhancing spatial and temporal management and protection. We argue that these goals are best achieved through partnerships with policy-makers and community stakeholders, and promoting research groups from the South Atlantic through investment and engagement. Given the high costs of such research (€800k to €1.7M per expedition and €30–40M for a basin-scale programme), international cooperation and funding are integral to supporting science-led policies to conserve ocean ecosystems that transcend jurisdictional borders.

In the coming decades, environmental change like warming and acidification will affect life in the ocean. While data on single stressor effects on fish are accumulating rapidly, we still know relatively little about interactive effects of multiple drivers. Of particular concern in this context are the early life stages of fish, for which direct effects of increased CO2 on growth and development have been observed. Whether these effects are further modified by elevated temperature was investigated here for the larvae of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus), a commercially important fish species. Over a period of 32 days, larval survival, growth in size and weight, and instantaneous growth rate were assessed in a crossed experimental design of two temperatures (10°C and 12°C) with two CO2 levels (400 μatm and 900 μatm CO2) at food levels mimicking natural levels using natural prey. Elevated temperature alone led to increased swimming activity, as well as decreased survival and instantaneous growth rate (Gi). The comparatively high sensitivity to elevated temperature in this study may have been influenced by low food levels offered to the larvae. Larval size, Gi and swimming activity were not affected by CO2, indicating tolerance of this species to projected "end of the century" CO2 levels. A synergistic effect of elevated temperature and CO2 was found for larval weight, where no effect of elevated CO2 concentrations was detected in the 12°C treatment, but a negative CO2 effect was found in the 10°C treatment. Contrasting CO2 effects were found for survival between the two temperatures. Under ambient CO2 conditions survival was increased at 12°C compared to 10°C. In general, CO2 effects were minor and considered negligible compared to the effect of temperature under these mimicked natural food conditions. These findings emphasize the need to include biotic factors such as energy supply via prey availability in future studies on interactive effects of multiple stressors.

The Instituto Español de Oceanografía (IEO, Spanish Institute of Oceanography) has maintained different monitoring programs in the Spanish Mediterranean waters (Western Mediterranean) since 1992. All these monitoring programs were unified in 2007 under the current program RADMED (series temporales de datos oceanográficos en el Mediterráneo), which is devoted to the in situ multidisciplinary sampling of the water column of coastal and open-sea waters by means of periodic oceanographic campaigns. These campaigns, together with a network of tide-gauges, are part of the IEO Observing system (IEOOS). In some cases, the temperature and salinity time series collected in the frame of these monitoring programs are now more than 30 years long, whereas sea level time series date to the beginning of the 1940s. This information has been complemented with international databases and has been analyzed in numerous works by the Grupo mediterráneo de Cambio Climático (GCC; Mediterranean Climate Change Group) for more than 20 years. These works have been devoted to the detection and quantification of the changes that climate change is producing on the physical, chemical, and biological properties of the Spanish Mediterranean waters. In this work, we review the results obtained by the GCC since 2005 in relation to the changes in the physical properties of the sea: water column temperature, salinity, and density, heat content, mixed layer depth, and sea level. Time series and results are updated from the last works, and the reliability of the existing time series for the detection of climatologies and long-term trends are analyzed. Furthermore, the different sources of uncertainty in the estimation of linear trends are considered in the present work. Besides this review and update of the results obtained from the data collected in the frame of the IEOOS, we conduct a review of the existing monitoring capabilities from other institutions in the Spanish Mediterranean waters and a review of results dealing with climate change in the Spanish Mediterranean obtained by such institutions. In particular, we include a review of the results obtained by SOCIB (Servicio de Observación y Predicción Costero de las Islas Baleares; Balearic Islands costal observing and forecasting system) in relation to the study of marine heat waves and the warming of the sea surface, and the results corresponding to the intense warming of the Catalan continental shelf at L’Estartit oceanographic station. All these results evidence that the surface Spanish Mediterranean waters are warming up at a rate higher than that affecting the global ocean (>2 °C/100 years). This warming and a salinity increase are also observed along the whole water column. Marine heat waves are increasing their intensity, frequency, and duration since 1982, and coastal sea level is increasing at a rate of 2.5 mm/yr. The salinity increase seems to have compensated for the warming, at least at surface and intermediate waters where no significant trends have been detected for the density. This could also be the reason for the lack of significant trends in the evolution of the mixed layer depth. All these results highlight the importance of monitoring the water column and the necessity of maintaining in situ sampling programs, which are essential for the study of changes that are occurring throughout the Spanish Mediterranean waters.

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

AbstractAimThe aim was to evaluate the effects of climate warming on biodiversity across spatial scales (i.e., α‐, β‐ and γ‐diversity) and the effects of patch openness and experimental context on diversity responses.LocationGlobal.Time period1995–2017.Major taxa studiedFungi, invertebrates, phytoplankton, plants, seaweed, soil microbes and zooplankton.MethodsWe compiled data from warming experiments and conducted a meta‐analysis to evaluate the effects of warming on different components of diversity (such as species richness and equivalent numbers) at different spatial scales (α‐, β‐ and γ‐diversity, partitioning β‐diversity into species turnover and nestedness components). We also investigated how these effects were modulated by system openness, defined as the possibility of replicates being colonized by new species, and experimental context (duration, mean temperature change and ecosystem type).ResultsExperimental warming did not affect local species richness (α‐diversity) but decreased effective numbers of species by affecting species dominance. Warming increased species spatial turnover (β‐diversity), although no significant changes were detected at the regional scale (γ‐diversity). Site openness and experimental context did not significantly affect our results, despite significant heterogeneity in the effect sizes of α‐ and β‐diversity.Main conclusionsOur meta‐analysis shows that the effects of warming on biodiversity are scale dependent. The local and regional inventory diversity remain unaltered, whereas species composition across temperature gradients and the patterns of species dominance change with temperature, creating novel communities that might be harder to predict.