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  • This is the API endpoint for RouteE energy prediction, which can be used to get both single vehicle link or route energy estimates and transportation network-wide energy consumption estimates for a variety of vehicles. This enables external researchers and transportation engineers to access and utilize NREL's growing library of pre-trained vehicle models for prediction of transportation energy consumption. This API provides three endpoints: - /route: Energy estimation of a vehicle over a planning link or sequence of links (route). - /network: Network-wide estimation of energy consumption for all vehicle traffic in the desired area. - /compass: Energy-optimal “eco-routing” between input origin and destination coordinates (Currently in beta for Denver metro area only).

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Daniel Pauly; Manuel Dureuil; Maria Lourdes Deng Palomares; Giuseppe Scarcella; +6 Authors

    AbstractThe Law of the Sea and regional and national laws and agreements require exploited populations or stocks to be managed so that they can produce maximum sustainable yields. However, exploitation level and stock status are unknown for most stocks because the data required for full stock assessments are missing. This study presents a new method [abundance maximum sustainable yields (AMSY)] that estimates relative population size when no catch data are available using time series of catch-per-unit-effort or other relative abundance indices as the main input. AMSY predictions for relative stock size were not significantly different from the “true” values when compared with simulated data. Also, they were not significantly different from relative stock size estimated by data-rich models in 88% of the comparisons within 140 real stocks. Application of AMSY to 38 data-poor stocks showed the suitability of the method and led to the first assessments for 23 species. Given the lack of catch data as input, AMSY estimates of exploitation come with wide margins of uncertainty, which may not be suitable for management. However, AMSY seems to be well suited for estimating productivity as well as relative stock size and may, therefore, aid in the management of data-poor stocks.

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    ICES Journal of Marine Science
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
    License: OUP Standard Publication Reuse
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    ICES Journal of Marine Science
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    CNR ExploRA
    Article . 2019
    Data sources: CNR ExploRA
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ ICES Journal of Mari...arrow_drop_down
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      ICES Journal of Marine Science
      Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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      ICES Journal of Marine Science
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      CNR ExploRA
      Article . 2019
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    Authors: Herbert Siegel; Gaute Lavik; Carolin R. Löscher; Harald Schunck; +17 Authors

    In Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems nutrient-rich waters are transported to the ocean surface, fuelling high photoautotrophic primary production. Subsequent heterotrophic decomposition of the produced biomass increases the oxygen-depletion at intermediate water depths, which can result in the formation of oxygen minimum zones (OMZ). OMZs can sporadically accumulate hydrogen sulfide (H2S), which is toxic to most multicellular organisms and has been implicated in massive fish kills. During a cruise to the OMZ off Peru in January 2009 we found a sulfidic plume in continental shelf waters, covering an area >5500 km(2), which contained ∼2.2×10(4) tons of H2S. This was the first time that H2S was measured in the Peruvian OMZ and with ∼440 km(3) the largest plume ever reported for oceanic waters. We assessed the phylogenetic and functional diversity of the inhabiting microbial community by high-throughput sequencing of DNA and RNA, while its metabolic activity was determined with rate measurements of carbon fixation and nitrogen transformation processes. The waters were dominated by several distinct γ-, δ- and ε-proteobacterial taxa associated with either sulfur oxidation or sulfate reduction. Our results suggest that these chemolithoautotrophic bacteria utilized several oxidants (oxygen, nitrate, nitrite, nitric oxide and nitrous oxide) to detoxify the sulfidic waters well below the oxic surface. The chemolithoautotrophic activity at our sampling site led to high rates of dark carbon fixation. Assuming that these chemolithoautotrophic rates were maintained throughout the sulfidic waters, they could be representing as much as ∼30% of the photoautotrophic carbon fixation. Postulated changes such as eutrophication and global warming, which lead to an expansion and intensification of OMZs, might also increase the frequency of sulfidic waters. We suggest that the chemolithoautotrophically fixed carbon may be involved in a negative feedback loop that could fuel further sulfate reduction and potentially stabilize the sulfidic OMZ waters.

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    Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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    PLoS ONE
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    Authors: Nikolaos I. Xiros; Erdem Aktosun;

    The hydrodynamic forces on an oscillating circular cylinder are predicted using neural networks under flow conditions where Vortex-Induced Vibrations (VIV) are known to occur. The derived neural network approximators are then incorporated in a dynamical model that allows prediction of the cylinder motion given flow conditions and initial conditions. Using experimental data, a minimum-least-squares compensator is tuned that includes linear stiffness and damping su-perimposed with a constant force offset. The compensator is decoupled, i.e., with equations in-dependent for each degree of freedom. By applying the neural network approximators and the derived compensator simulated experiments can be performed. These simulated experiments show that the compensator which cancels the linear components and any bias in the hydrody-namic forces effectively stabilizes the VIV motion. To support this time-domain analysis is per-formed along with phase-plane investigations. Maximum Lyapunov exponent analysis is also shown.

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    Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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      Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
      Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Wanxin Fu; Minjie Wei;

    Once a distribution network failure occurs, it can spread to the traffic network through the coupling point, causing electric vehicles (EVs) to change their charging paths. To address this problem, this paper presents an EV charging path planning approach that considers coupled faults in the distribution-transportation network. First, the cascading failure model of the distribution-transportation network and the model for choosing charging stations are presented to transfer the information of coupling faults propagation and coupling points power interaction to the follow-up path planning scheme. Second, a time occupancy road resistance model that considers congested and unobstructed traffic states is proposed to calculate the road section travel time, based on the analysis results of the evolution process of road traffic flow queuing using traffic wave theory. For the speed and density parameters in the traffic wave model, values are calculated using the logistics speed-density model and the time occupancy model. Third, a multi-objective optimization function that integrates travel cost and coupling network operation state is determined from the perspective of hindering the propagation of coupling faults. The function is solved to recommend optimal charging paths using an improved A* searching algorithm. Finally, a 90-bus road network and three 33-bus distribution networks are selected as examples to verify the veracity and validity of the proposed model and method. The research results demonstrate that the proposed method can alleviate traffic congestion.

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    Frontiers in Energy Research
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      Frontiers in Energy Research
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      Frontiers in Energy Research
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    Authors: Østergaard, Poul Alberg; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok;

    The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol 7 (2015)

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  • Authors: Gonder, J.; Markel, T.; Simpson, A.; Thornton, M.;

    Highlights opportunities using GPS travel survey techniques and systems simulation tools for plug-in hybrid vehicle design improvements, which maximize the benefits of energy efficiency technologies.

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    Authors: Nagelkerken, Ivan; Goldenberg, Silvan U; Ferreira, Camilo M; Ullah, Hadayet; +1 Authors

    As human activities intensify, the structures of ecosystems and their food webs often reorganize. Through the study of mesocosms harboring a diverse benthic coastal community, we reveal that food web architecture can be inflexible under ocean warming and acidification and unable to compensate for the decline or proliferation of taxa. Key stabilizing processes, including functional redundancy, trophic compensation, and species substitution, were largely absent under future climate conditions. A trophic pyramid emerged in which biomass expanded at the base and top but contracted in the center. This structure may characterize a transitionary state before collapse into shortened, bottom-heavy food webs that characterize ecosystems subject to persistent abiotic stress. We show that where food web architecture lacks adjustability, the adaptive capacity of ecosystems to global change is weak and ecosystem degradation likely. In order to allow full comparability with other ocean acidification data sets, the R package seacarb (Gattuso et al, 2021) was used to compute a complete and consistent set of carbonate system variables, as described by Nisumaa et al. (2010). In this dataset the original values were archived in addition with the recalculated parameters (see related PI). The date of carbonate chemistry calculation by seacarb is 2021-03-09.

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    B2FIND
    Dataset . 2020
    Data sources: B2FIND
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    PANGAEA
    Dataset . 2020
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    PANGAEA
    Dataset . 2021
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: PANGAEA
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      B2FIND
      Dataset . 2020
      Data sources: B2FIND
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      PANGAEA
      Dataset . 2020
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      Dataset . 2021
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    Authors: James W. Heim; Randy L. Vander Wal;

    Rare earth element (REE) permanent magnets (NdFeB) are a critical element in a vast and growing number of industrial applications. In consumer electronics, a broad category encompassing computer, CD, and DVD hard drives, in addition to the ubiquitous cell phones, the nominal NdFeB magnet content may be small, but the global market share for this sector accounts for almost 30% of NdFeB demand, due to a large and continually increasing consumer base. It is estimated that wind turbines that primarily employ permanent magnets will add roughly 110 GW annually of on- and off-shore capability over the next few years. Electric vehicles (EVs) and E-bicycles (EBs) equipped with permanent magnet motors comprise the transportation contribution. Permanent magnet motors have garnered nearly 100% of the market share among EV manufacturers worldwide. Industrial, professional service, and personal robots, most using permanent magnets, are also included in the projected global need for rare earths, particularly Nd and Dy. The sector projects significant growth of approximately 10% across robotic categories. In this paper, we calculate the future demand for Nd and Dy through 2050 across these sectors using a compounded annual growth rate coupled with magnet weight and rare earth content. Uncertainties in the estimates, such as the true global production of Nd, a range of end-product scales and/or unit types in each sector, varied magnet compositions, and the variety of uses within a sector, are all considered.

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    Minerals
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
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    Minerals
    Article . 2023
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      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Precht, William F.; Aronson, Richard B.; Gardner, Toby A.; Gill, Jennifer A.; +11 Authors

    Caribbean reefs have experienced unprecedented changes in the past four decades. Of great concern is the perceived widespread shift from coral to macroalgal dominance and the question of whether it represents a new, stable equilibrium for coral-reef communities. The primary causes of the shift-grazing pressure (top-down), nutrient loading (bottom-up) or direct coral mortality (side-in)-still remain somewhat controversial in the coral-reef literature. We have attempted to tease out the relative importance of each of these causes. Four insights emerge from our analysis of an early regional dataset of information on the benthic composition of Caribbean reefs spanning the years 1977-2001. First, although three-quarters of reef sites have experienced coral declines concomitant with macroalgal increases, fewer than 10% of the more than 200 sites studied were dominated by macroalgae in 2001, by even the most conservative definition of dominance. Using relative dominance as the threshold, a total of 49 coral-to-macroalgae shifts were detected. This total represents ~35% of all sites that were dominated by coral at the start of their monitoring periods. Four shifts (8.2%) occurred because of coral loss with no change in macroalgal cover, 15 (30.6%) occurred because of macroalgal gain without coral loss, and 30 (61.2%) occurred owing to concomitant coral decline and macroalgal increase. Second, the timing of shifts at the regional scale is most consistent with the side-in model of reef degradation, which invokes coral mortality as a precursor to macroalgal takeover, because more shifts occurred after regional coral-mortality events than expected by chance. Third, instantaneous observations taken at the start and end of the time-series for individual sites showed these reefs existed along a continuum of coral and macroalgal cover. The continuous, broadly negative relationship between coral and macroalgal cover suggests that in some cases coral-to-macroalgae phase shifts may be reversed by removing sources of perturbation or restoring critical components such as the herbivorous sea urchin Diadema antillarum to the system. The five instances in which macroalgal dominance was reversed corroborate the conclusion that macroalgal dominance is not a stable, alternative community state as has been commonly assumed. Fourth, the fact that the loss in regional coral cover and concomitant changes to the benthic community are related to punctuated, discrete events with known causes (i.e. coral disease and bleaching), lends credence to the hypothesis that coral reefs of the Caribbean have been under assault from climate-change-related maladies since the 1970s.

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    Part of book or chapter of book . 2020
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    https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.amb...
    Part of book or chapter of book . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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  • This is the API endpoint for RouteE energy prediction, which can be used to get both single vehicle link or route energy estimates and transportation network-wide energy consumption estimates for a variety of vehicles. This enables external researchers and transportation engineers to access and utilize NREL's growing library of pre-trained vehicle models for prediction of transportation energy consumption. This API provides three endpoints: - /route: Energy estimation of a vehicle over a planning link or sequence of links (route). - /network: Network-wide estimation of energy consumption for all vehicle traffic in the desired area. - /compass: Energy-optimal “eco-routing” between input origin and destination coordinates (Currently in beta for Denver metro area only).

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    Authors: Daniel Pauly; Manuel Dureuil; Maria Lourdes Deng Palomares; Giuseppe Scarcella; +6 Authors

    AbstractThe Law of the Sea and regional and national laws and agreements require exploited populations or stocks to be managed so that they can produce maximum sustainable yields. However, exploitation level and stock status are unknown for most stocks because the data required for full stock assessments are missing. This study presents a new method [abundance maximum sustainable yields (AMSY)] that estimates relative population size when no catch data are available using time series of catch-per-unit-effort or other relative abundance indices as the main input. AMSY predictions for relative stock size were not significantly different from the “true” values when compared with simulated data. Also, they were not significantly different from relative stock size estimated by data-rich models in 88% of the comparisons within 140 real stocks. Application of AMSY to 38 data-poor stocks showed the suitability of the method and led to the first assessments for 23 species. Given the lack of catch data as input, AMSY estimates of exploitation come with wide margins of uncertainty, which may not be suitable for management. However, AMSY seems to be well suited for estimating productivity as well as relative stock size and may, therefore, aid in the management of data-poor stocks.

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    ICES Journal of Marine Science
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    ICES Journal of Marine Science
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    CNR ExploRA
    Article . 2019
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      ICES Journal of Marine Science
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    Authors: Herbert Siegel; Gaute Lavik; Carolin R. Löscher; Harald Schunck; +17 Authors

    In Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems nutrient-rich waters are transported to the ocean surface, fuelling high photoautotrophic primary production. Subsequent heterotrophic decomposition of the produced biomass increases the oxygen-depletion at intermediate water depths, which can result in the formation of oxygen minimum zones (OMZ). OMZs can sporadically accumulate hydrogen sulfide (H2S), which is toxic to most multicellular organisms and has been implicated in massive fish kills. During a cruise to the OMZ off Peru in January 2009 we found a sulfidic plume in continental shelf waters, covering an area >5500 km(2), which contained ∼2.2×10(4) tons of H2S. This was the first time that H2S was measured in the Peruvian OMZ and with ∼440 km(3) the largest plume ever reported for oceanic waters. We assessed the phylogenetic and functional diversity of the inhabiting microbial community by high-throughput sequencing of DNA and RNA, while its metabolic activity was determined with rate measurements of carbon fixation and nitrogen transformation processes. The waters were dominated by several distinct γ-, δ- and ε-proteobacterial taxa associated with either sulfur oxidation or sulfate reduction. Our results suggest that these chemolithoautotrophic bacteria utilized several oxidants (oxygen, nitrate, nitrite, nitric oxide and nitrous oxide) to detoxify the sulfidic waters well below the oxic surface. The chemolithoautotrophic activity at our sampling site led to high rates of dark carbon fixation. Assuming that these chemolithoautotrophic rates were maintained throughout the sulfidic waters, they could be representing as much as ∼30% of the photoautotrophic carbon fixation. Postulated changes such as eutrophication and global warming, which lead to an expansion and intensification of OMZs, might also increase the frequency of sulfidic waters. We suggest that the chemolithoautotrophically fixed carbon may be involved in a negative feedback loop that could fuel further sulfate reduction and potentially stabilize the sulfidic OMZ waters.

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    OceanRep
    Article . 2013 . Peer-reviewed
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    PLoS ONE
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    PLoS ONE
    Article . 2014
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      Article . 2014
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    Authors: Nikolaos I. Xiros; Erdem Aktosun;

    The hydrodynamic forces on an oscillating circular cylinder are predicted using neural networks under flow conditions where Vortex-Induced Vibrations (VIV) are known to occur. The derived neural network approximators are then incorporated in a dynamical model that allows prediction of the cylinder motion given flow conditions and initial conditions. Using experimental data, a minimum-least-squares compensator is tuned that includes linear stiffness and damping su-perimposed with a constant force offset. The compensator is decoupled, i.e., with equations in-dependent for each degree of freedom. By applying the neural network approximators and the derived compensator simulated experiments can be performed. These simulated experiments show that the compensator which cancels the linear components and any bias in the hydrody-namic forces effectively stabilizes the VIV motion. To support this time-domain analysis is per-formed along with phase-plane investigations. Maximum Lyapunov exponent analysis is also shown.

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    Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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      Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
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    Authors: Wanxin Fu; Minjie Wei;

    Once a distribution network failure occurs, it can spread to the traffic network through the coupling point, causing electric vehicles (EVs) to change their charging paths. To address this problem, this paper presents an EV charging path planning approach that considers coupled faults in the distribution-transportation network. First, the cascading failure model of the distribution-transportation network and the model for choosing charging stations are presented to transfer the information of coupling faults propagation and coupling points power interaction to the follow-up path planning scheme. Second, a time occupancy road resistance model that considers congested and unobstructed traffic states is proposed to calculate the road section travel time, based on the analysis results of the evolution process of road traffic flow queuing using traffic wave theory. For the speed and density parameters in the traffic wave model, values are calculated using the logistics speed-density model and the time occupancy model. Third, a multi-objective optimization function that integrates travel cost and coupling network operation state is determined from the perspective of hindering the propagation of coupling faults. The function is solved to recommend optimal charging paths using an improved A* searching algorithm. Finally, a 90-bus road network and three 33-bus distribution networks are selected as examples to verify the veracity and validity of the proposed model and method. The research results demonstrate that the proposed method can alleviate traffic congestion.

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    Frontiers in Energy Research
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Frontiers in Energy Research
    Article . 2023
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      Frontiers in Energy Research
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      Frontiers in Energy Research
      Article . 2023
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    Authors: Østergaard, Poul Alberg; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok;

    The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles. International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, Vol 7 (2015)

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  • Authors: Gonder, J.; Markel, T.; Simpson, A.; Thornton, M.;

    Highlights opportunities using GPS travel survey techniques and systems simulation tools for plug-in hybrid vehicle design improvements, which maximize the benefits of energy efficiency technologies.

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    Authors: Nagelkerken, Ivan; Goldenberg, Silvan U; Ferreira, Camilo M; Ullah, Hadayet; +1 Authors

    As human activities intensify, the structures of ecosystems and their food webs often reorganize. Through the study of mesocosms harboring a diverse benthic coastal community, we reveal that food web architecture can be inflexible under ocean warming and acidification and unable to compensate for the decline or proliferation of taxa. Key stabilizing processes, including functional redundancy, trophic compensation, and species substitution, were largely absent under future climate conditions. A trophic pyramid emerged in which biomass expanded at the base and top but contracted in the center. This structure may characterize a transitionary state before collapse into shortened, bottom-heavy food webs that characterize ecosystems subject to persistent abiotic stress. We show that where food web architecture lacks adjustability, the adaptive capacity of ecosystems to global change is weak and ecosystem degradation likely. In order to allow full comparability with other ocean acidification data sets, the R package seacarb (Gattuso et al, 2021) was used to compute a complete and consistent set of carbonate system variables, as described by Nisumaa et al. (2010). In this dataset the original values were archived in addition with the recalculated parameters (see related PI). The date of carbonate chemistry calculation by seacarb is 2021-03-09.

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    B2FIND
    Dataset . 2020
    Data sources: B2FIND
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    PANGAEA
    Dataset . 2020
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    PANGAEA
    Dataset . 2021
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: PANGAEA
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      B2FIND
      Dataset . 2020
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      PANGAEA
      Dataset . 2020
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    Authors: James W. Heim; Randy L. Vander Wal;

    Rare earth element (REE) permanent magnets (NdFeB) are a critical element in a vast and growing number of industrial applications. In consumer electronics, a broad category encompassing computer, CD, and DVD hard drives, in addition to the ubiquitous cell phones, the nominal NdFeB magnet content may be small, but the global market share for this sector accounts for almost 30% of NdFeB demand, due to a large and continually increasing consumer base. It is estimated that wind turbines that primarily employ permanent magnets will add roughly 110 GW annually of on- and off-shore capability over the next few years. Electric vehicles (EVs) and E-bicycles (EBs) equipped with permanent magnet motors comprise the transportation contribution. Permanent magnet motors have garnered nearly 100% of the market share among EV manufacturers worldwide. Industrial, professional service, and personal robots, most using permanent magnets, are also included in the projected global need for rare earths, particularly Nd and Dy. The sector projects significant growth of approximately 10% across robotic categories. In this paper, we calculate the future demand for Nd and Dy through 2050 across these sectors using a compounded annual growth rate coupled with magnet weight and rare earth content. Uncertainties in the estimates, such as the true global production of Nd, a range of end-product scales and/or unit types in each sector, varied magnet compositions, and the variety of uses within a sector, are all considered.

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    Minerals
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Minerals
    Article . 2023
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      Minerals
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Precht, William F.; Aronson, Richard B.; Gardner, Toby A.; Gill, Jennifer A.; +11 Authors

    Caribbean reefs have experienced unprecedented changes in the past four decades. Of great concern is the perceived widespread shift from coral to macroalgal dominance and the question of whether it represents a new, stable equilibrium for coral-reef communities. The primary causes of the shift-grazing pressure (top-down), nutrient loading (bottom-up) or direct coral mortality (side-in)-still remain somewhat controversial in the coral-reef literature. We have attempted to tease out the relative importance of each of these causes. Four insights emerge from our analysis of an early regional dataset of information on the benthic composition of Caribbean reefs spanning the years 1977-2001. First, although three-quarters of reef sites have experienced coral declines concomitant with macroalgal increases, fewer than 10% of the more than 200 sites studied were dominated by macroalgae in 2001, by even the most conservative definition of dominance. Using relative dominance as the threshold, a total of 49 coral-to-macroalgae shifts were detected. This total represents ~35% of all sites that were dominated by coral at the start of their monitoring periods. Four shifts (8.2%) occurred because of coral loss with no change in macroalgal cover, 15 (30.6%) occurred because of macroalgal gain without coral loss, and 30 (61.2%) occurred owing to concomitant coral decline and macroalgal increase. Second, the timing of shifts at the regional scale is most consistent with the side-in model of reef degradation, which invokes coral mortality as a precursor to macroalgal takeover, because more shifts occurred after regional coral-mortality events than expected by chance. Third, instantaneous observations taken at the start and end of the time-series for individual sites showed these reefs existed along a continuum of coral and macroalgal cover. The continuous, broadly negative relationship between coral and macroalgal cover suggests that in some cases coral-to-macroalgae phase shifts may be reversed by removing sources of perturbation or restoring critical components such as the herbivorous sea urchin Diadema antillarum to the system. The five instances in which macroalgal dominance was reversed corroborate the conclusion that macroalgal dominance is not a stable, alternative community state as has been commonly assumed. Fourth, the fact that the loss in regional coral cover and concomitant changes to the benthic community are related to punctuated, discrete events with known causes (i.e. coral disease and bleaching), lends credence to the hypothesis that coral reefs of the Caribbean have been under assault from climate-change-related maladies since the 1970s.

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    Part of book or chapter of book . 2020
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    https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.amb...
    Part of book or chapter of book . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      https://doi.org/10.1016/bs.amb...
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