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Project: GCOS Earth Heat Inventory - A study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory (EHI), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period from 1960 to present. Summary: The file “GCOS_EHI_1960-2020_Earth_Heat_Inventory_Ocean_Heat_Content_data.nc” contains a consistent long-term Earth system heat inventory over the period 1960-2020. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere which is driving global warming. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system from this accumulated heat – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system - is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This dataset is based on a study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory published in von Schuckmann et al. (2020), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960-2020. The dataset also contains estimates for global ocean heat content over 1960-2020 for different depth layers, i.e., 0-300m, 0-700m, 700-2000m, 0-2000m, 2000-bottom, which are described in von Schuckmann et al. (2022). This version includes an update of heat storage of global ocean heat content, where one additional product (Li et al., 2022) had been included to the initial estimate. The Earth heat inventory had been updated accordingly, considering also the update for continental heat content (Cuesta-Valero et al., 2023).

AbstractThe Law of the Sea and regional and national laws and agreements require exploited populations or stocks to be managed so that they can produce maximum sustainable yields. However, exploitation level and stock status are unknown for most stocks because the data required for full stock assessments are missing. This study presents a new method [abundance maximum sustainable yields (AMSY)] that estimates relative population size when no catch data are available using time series of catch-per-unit-effort or other relative abundance indices as the main input. AMSY predictions for relative stock size were not significantly different from the “true” values when compared with simulated data. Also, they were not significantly different from relative stock size estimated by data-rich models in 88% of the comparisons within 140 real stocks. Application of AMSY to 38 data-poor stocks showed the suitability of the method and led to the first assessments for 23 species. Given the lack of catch data as input, AMSY estimates of exploitation come with wide margins of uncertainty, which may not be suitable for management. However, AMSY seems to be well suited for estimating productivity as well as relative stock size and may, therefore, aid in the management of data-poor stocks.

In Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems nutrient-rich waters are transported to the ocean surface, fuelling high photoautotrophic primary production. Subsequent heterotrophic decomposition of the produced biomass increases the oxygen-depletion at intermediate water depths, which can result in the formation of oxygen minimum zones (OMZ). OMZs can sporadically accumulate hydrogen sulfide (H2S), which is toxic to most multicellular organisms and has been implicated in massive fish kills. During a cruise to the OMZ off Peru in January 2009 we found a sulfidic plume in continental shelf waters, covering an area >5500 km(2), which contained ∼2.2×10(4) tons of H2S. This was the first time that H2S was measured in the Peruvian OMZ and with ∼440 km(3) the largest plume ever reported for oceanic waters. We assessed the phylogenetic and functional diversity of the inhabiting microbial community by high-throughput sequencing of DNA and RNA, while its metabolic activity was determined with rate measurements of carbon fixation and nitrogen transformation processes. The waters were dominated by several distinct γ-, δ- and ε-proteobacterial taxa associated with either sulfur oxidation or sulfate reduction. Our results suggest that these chemolithoautotrophic bacteria utilized several oxidants (oxygen, nitrate, nitrite, nitric oxide and nitrous oxide) to detoxify the sulfidic waters well below the oxic surface. The chemolithoautotrophic activity at our sampling site led to high rates of dark carbon fixation. Assuming that these chemolithoautotrophic rates were maintained throughout the sulfidic waters, they could be representing as much as ∼30% of the photoautotrophic carbon fixation. Postulated changes such as eutrophication and global warming, which lead to an expansion and intensification of OMZs, might also increase the frequency of sulfidic waters. We suggest that the chemolithoautotrophically fixed carbon may be involved in a negative feedback loop that could fuel further sulfate reduction and potentially stabilize the sulfidic OMZ waters.

Caribbean reefs have experienced unprecedented changes in the past four decades. Of great concern is the perceived widespread shift from coral to macroalgal dominance and the question of whether it represents a new, stable equilibrium for coral-reef communities. The primary causes of the shift-grazing pressure (top-down), nutrient loading (bottom-up) or direct coral mortality (side-in)-still remain somewhat controversial in the coral-reef literature. We have attempted to tease out the relative importance of each of these causes. Four insights emerge from our analysis of an early regional dataset of information on the benthic composition of Caribbean reefs spanning the years 1977-2001. First, although three-quarters of reef sites have experienced coral declines concomitant with macroalgal increases, fewer than 10% of the more than 200 sites studied were dominated by macroalgae in 2001, by even the most conservative definition of dominance. Using relative dominance as the threshold, a total of 49 coral-to-macroalgae shifts were detected. This total represents ~35% of all sites that were dominated by coral at the start of their monitoring periods. Four shifts (8.2%) occurred because of coral loss with no change in macroalgal cover, 15 (30.6%) occurred because of macroalgal gain without coral loss, and 30 (61.2%) occurred owing to concomitant coral decline and macroalgal increase. Second, the timing of shifts at the regional scale is most consistent with the side-in model of reef degradation, which invokes coral mortality as a precursor to macroalgal takeover, because more shifts occurred after regional coral-mortality events than expected by chance. Third, instantaneous observations taken at the start and end of the time-series for individual sites showed these reefs existed along a continuum of coral and macroalgal cover. The continuous, broadly negative relationship between coral and macroalgal cover suggests that in some cases coral-to-macroalgae phase shifts may be reversed by removing sources of perturbation or restoring critical components such as the herbivorous sea urchin Diadema antillarum to the system. The five instances in which macroalgal dominance was reversed corroborate the conclusion that macroalgal dominance is not a stable, alternative community state as has been commonly assumed. Fourth, the fact that the loss in regional coral cover and concomitant changes to the benthic community are related to punctuated, discrete events with known causes (i.e. coral disease and bleaching), lends credence to the hypothesis that coral reefs of the Caribbean have been under assault from climate-change-related maladies since the 1970s.

AbstractOcean ecosystems are at the forefront of the climate and biodiversity crises, yet we lack a unified approach to assess their state and inform sustainable policies. This blueprint is designed around research capabilities and cross-sectoral partnerships. We highlight priorities including integrating basin-scale observation, modelling and genomic approaches to understand Atlantic oceanography and ecosystem connectivity; improving ecosystem mapping; identifying potential tipping points in deep and open ocean ecosystems; understanding compound impacts of multiple stressors including warming, acidification and deoxygenation; enhancing spatial and temporal management and protection. We argue that these goals are best achieved through partnerships with policy-makers and community stakeholders, and promoting research groups from the South Atlantic through investment and engagement. Given the high costs of such research (€800k to €1.7M per expedition and €30–40M for a basin-scale programme), international cooperation and funding are integral to supporting science-led policies to conserve ocean ecosystems that transcend jurisdictional borders.

Observational estimates and numerical models both indicate a significant overall decline in marine oxygen levels over the past few decades. Spatial patterns of oxygen change, however, differ considerably between observed and modelled estimates. Particularly in the tropical thermocline that hosts open-ocean oxygen minimum zones, observations indicate a general oxygen decline, whereas most of the state-of-the-art models simulate increasing oxygen levels. Possible reasons for the apparent model-data discrepancies are examined. In order to attribute observed historical variations in oxygen levels, we here study mechanisms of changes in oxygen supply and consumption with sensitivity model simulations. Specifically, the role of equatorial jets, of lateral and diapycnal mixing processes, of changes in the wind-driven circulation and atmospheric nutrient supply, and of some poorly constrained biogeochemical processes are investigated. Predominantly wind-driven changes in the low-latitude oceanic ventilation are identified as a possible factor contributing to observed oxygen changes in the low-latitude thermocline during the past decades, while the potential role of biogeochemical processes remains difficult to constrain. We discuss implications for the attribution of observed oxygen changes to anthropogenic impacts and research priorities that may help to improve our mechanistic understanding of oxygen changes and the quality of projections into a changing future. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world’.

Particulate matter export fuels benthic ecosystems in continental margins and the deep sea, removing carbon from the upper ocean. Gelatinous zooplankton biomass provides a fast carbon vector that has been poorly studied. Observational data of a large-scale benthic trawling survey from 1994 to 2005 provided a unique opportunity to quantify jelly-carbon along an entire continental margin in the Mediterranean Sea and to assess potential links with biological and physical variables. Biomass depositions were sampled in shelves, slopes and canyons with peaks above 1000 carcasses per trawl, translating to standing stock values between 0.3 and 1.4 mg C m(2) after trawling and integrating between 30,000 and 175,000 m(2) of seabed. The benthopelagic jelly-carbon spatial distribution from the shelf to the canyons may be explained by atmospheric forcing related with NAO events and dense shelf water cascading, which are both known from the open Mediterranean. Over the decadal scale, we show that the jelly-carbon depositions temporal variability paralleled hydroclimate modifications, and that the enhanced jelly-carbon deposits are connected to a temperature-driven system where chlorophyll plays a minor role. Our results highlight the importance of gelatinous groups as indicators of large-scale ecosystem change, where jelly-carbon depositions play an important role in carbon and energy transport to benthic systems.