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Research to date has suggested that both individual marine species and ecological processes are expected to exhibit diverse responses to the environmental effects of climate change. Evolutionary responses can occur on rapid (ecological) timescales, and yet studies typically do not consider the role that adaptive evolution will play in modulating biological responses to climate change. Investigations into such responses have typically been focused at particular biological levels (e.g., cellular, population, community), often lacking interactions among levels. Since all levels of biological organisation are sensitive to global climate change, there is a need to elucidate how different processes and hierarchical interactions will influence species fitness. Therefore, predicting the responses of communities and populations to global change will require multidisciplinary efforts across multiple levels of hierarchy, from the genetic and cellular to communities and ecosystems. Eventually, this may allow us to establish the role that acclimatisation and adaptation will play in determining marine community structures in future scenarios.

AbstractAccelerated warming and melting of Arctic sea-ice has been associated with significant increases in phytoplankton productivity in recent years. Here, utilizing a multiproxy approach, we reconstruct an annually resolved record of Labrador Sea productivity related to sea-ice variability in Labrador, Canada that extends well into the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1646 AD). Barium-to-calcium ratios (Ba/Ca) and carbon isotopes (δ13C) measured in long-lived coralline algae demonstrate significant correlations to both observational and proxy records of sea-ice variability, and show persistent patterns of co-variability broadly consistent with the timing and phasing of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results indicate reduced productivity in the Subarctic Northwest Atlantic associated with AMO cool phases during the LIA, followed by a step-wise increase from 1910 to present levels—unprecedented in the last 363 years. Increasing phytoplankton productivity is expected to fundamentally alter marine ecosystems as warming and freshening is projected to intensify over the coming century.

The effects of climate change (CC) on contaminants and their potential consequences to marine ecosystem services and human wellbeing are of paramount importance, as they pose overlapping risks. Here, we discuss how the interaction between CC and contaminants leads to poorly constrained impacts that affects the sensitivity of organisms to contamination leading to impaired ecosystem function, services and risk assessment evaluations. Climate drivers, such as ocean warming, ocean deoxygenation, changes in circulation, ocean acidification, and extreme events interact with trace metals, organic pollutants, excess nutrients, and radionuclides in a complex manner. Overall, the holistic consideration of the pollutants-climate change nexus has significant knowledge gaps, but will be important in understanding the fate, transport, speciation, bioavailability, toxicity, and inventories of contaminants. Greater focus on these uncertainties would facilitate improved predictions of future changes in the global biogeochemical cycling of contaminants and both human health and marine ecosystems.

AbstractClimate change and deoxygenation are affecting fish stocks on a global scale, but disentangling the impacts of these stressors from the effects of overfishing is a challenge. This study was conducted to distinguish between climate change and mismanagement as possible causes for the drastic decline in spawning stock size and reproductive success in cod (Gadus morhua) and herring (Clupea harengus) in the Western Baltic Sea, when compared with the good or satisfactory status and reproductive success of the other commercial species in the area. Available data on water temperature, wind speed, and plankton bloom during the spawning season did not reveal conclusive correlations between years with good and bad reproductive success of cod or herring. Notably, the other commercial species in the area have very similar life history traits suggesting similar resilience against stress caused by climate change or fishing. The study concludes that severe, sustained overfishing plus inappropriate size selectivity of the main fishing gears have caused the decline in spawning stock biomass of cod and herring to levels that are known to have a high probability of impaired reproductive success. It is pointed out that allowed catches were regulated by management and adhered to by the fishers, meaning that unregulated fishing did not occur. Thus, mismanagement (quotas that were too high and gears that selected too small sizes) and not climate change appears to be the primary cause of the bad status of cod and herring in the Western Baltic Sea.

Non-technical summaryWe summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.Technical summaryA synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.Social media summaryHow do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.