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Abstract This paper describes a computer simulation model constructed in the summer of 2000. It was used to simulate the general patterns of power plant construction that might appear in an electric system with approximately the same loads, resources and markets as those in California. The paper begins with background on restructuring in California and a review of previous research on construction. The paper then describes the computer model by presenting several simulations with qualitatively different patterns of construction. The simulations reveal that construction could appear in a steady, even fashion, causing power plants to come on line exactly in time to meet the profitability goals of investors. But this is not the dominant pattern. The more likely pattern shows construction lagging behind the growth in demand, allowing prices to climb to surprisingly high values during peak periods in the summer. When new power plants are completed, they come on line in great numbers causing a bust in wholesale prices. The boom/bust pattern of construction is common in industries such as commodities and real estate, and there are good reasons to believe that a boom could appear in the electric industry. Electricity consumers would certainly benefit from a boom in construction. Unfortunately, waiting for the boom is a difficult challenge with the current mix of state and federal rules in California. The paper concludes with a summary of recent events that have led to the demise of the California approach to deregulation and to the state's entry into the power business.

Abstract Wood use for residential space heating has become an important topic of study in the US Pacific northwest. This article presents wood use profiles, estimates on the amount of electricity (kWh) wood use displaces and reasons that house-holds use wood. The data indicate that many households can easily switch between wood and electricity for space heating. One conclusion is that utilities in this region should be cognizant of large possible swings in electricity demand resulting from changes in electricity prices and availability of wood. In general, wood use has the potential to complicate regional energy planning efforts to fashion cost-effective residential conservation programmes.

Abstract This paper provides the first estimates of China's global developmental finance institutions in general and China's policy bank lending to foreign governments for energy in particular. According to the China Global Energy Finance database, between 2000 and 2017, China Development Bank (CDB) and China Export-Import Bank (CHEXIM) provided $225.75 billion in overseas energy development finance. We find that: China's ‘policy banks’ and funds have doubled the availability of global development finance –and hold more assets than the major Western-backed MDBs operating in developing countries. With the onset of a new family of funds and multilateral development banks co-financed by China, China is poised to be the largest development lender in the world as Western-backed MDBs appear stagnated in their ability to increase their capital bases. China's global energy portfolio is heavily exposed to country, macroeconomic, climate, and social risks, however. To mitigate such risks and meet the broader sustainable development challenge for the 21st Century, China's development finance will need to shift the composition of its global energy lending in a significant manner.

The global warming debate has neglected and thus underestimated the importance of technical change in considering reduction in greenhouse gases and adaptation to climate change. Relevant quantitative cases of long-run technical change during the past 100 years are presented in computing, communications, transport, energy, and agriculture. A noteworthy technological trajectory is that of decarbonization, or decreasing carbon intensity of primary energy. If human societies have not yet reached the end of the history of technology, the cost structure for mitigation and adaptation changes could be cheap.

Abstract Among natural gas producing nations, there has been some concern about how the Asia Pacific will meet future demand for energy. We argue that natural gas, both regional and global, will play a vital role. Estimates of potential gas consumption in the region are analyzed and used to develop consensus projections to 2030. These consumption profiles are compared with gas supply estimates including indigenous, pipeline and LNG for the Asia Pacific market. From this analytical framework, we find that demand will be sufficiently large to accommodate supplies from diverse sources including North America, the Middle East, Central Asia, Russia, and the Asia Pacific itself. An important policy implication is that gas producing and consuming nations should benefit from promoting gas trade and not be concerned about a situation of potential lack of demand coupled with oversupply.

Abstract The United States (US) Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Mandatory Reporting Program (GHGRP) is designed to collect accurate and timely facility-level emissions data that might be used by policy makers to support sound climate policy decisions in the future. After reviewing the US Inventory and the expected improvements under GHGRP, we find that the benefits of GHGRP are minimal and quite possibly zero while the cost of implementation is relatively high, that the stated goal of reducing emissions uncertainty is not met by the program in its current form, and that the additional emissions data to be collected is likely not needed given the ongoing non-committal environment of US GHG regulation. Our review also highlights the need for EPA to make its US Inventory GHG models accessible to the public, which would enable a more thorough review of its assumptions and methods by the broader scientific community.

Abstract Under the sponsorship of the US Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, staff at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) studied the Rebuild America program for the purpose of identifying key factors associated with successful operations. This involved performing a quantitative analysis of the relationships between program results and selected characteristics of the partnerships as well as soliciting opinion data from partnership representatives regarding the factors related to good performance. The statistical analysis revealed that partnership age and the number of projects per partnership were both positively related to all the results measures tested, by themselves and in the presence of each other. The factors most frequently mentioned by the interviewed partnership representatives as influencing good partnership performance were: general assistance from the Rebuild America representative; open communications among all partners; existence of a “champion” for the partnership; support from the relevant city or state government; effective marketing to attract new partners; strong community interest; quick return on investment; interaction with other community organizations; and continuity of funding. A full discussion of all study findings can be found in the ORNL Report entitled an examination of Rebuild America partnership accomplishments and the factors influencing them (ORNL/CON-490, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN).

How to set policy in the presence of uncertainty has been central in debates over climate policy. Concern about costs has motivated the proposal for a cap-and-trade program for carbon dioxide, with a "safety valve" that would mitigate against spikes in the cost of emission reductions by introducing additional emission allowances into the market when marginal costs rise above the specified allowance price level. We find two significant problems, both stemming from the asymmetry of an instrument that mitigates only against a price increase. One is that most important examples of price volatility in cap-and-trade programs have occurred not when prices spiked, but instead when allowance prices collapsed. Second, a single-sided safety valve may have unintended consequences for investment. We illustrate that a symmetric safety valve provides environmental and welfare improvements relative to the conventional one-sided approach.