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In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.

Rivers are significant sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs; e.g., CH4 and CO2); however, our understanding of the large-scale longitudinal patterns of GHG emissions from rivers remains incomplete, representing a major challenge in upscaling. Local hotspots and moderate heterogeneities may be overlooked by conventional sampling schemes. In August 2020 and for the first time, we performed continuous (once per minute) CH4 measurements of surface water during a 584-km-long river cruise along the German Elbe to explore heterogeneities in CH4 concentration at different spatial scales and identify CH4 hotspots along the river. The median concentration of dissolved CH4 in the Elbe was 112 nmol L−1, ranging from 40 to 1,456 nmol L−1 The highest CH4 concentrations were recorded at known potential hotspots, such as weirs and harbors. These hotspots were also notable in terms of atmospheric CH4 concentrations, indicating that measurements in the atmosphere above the water are useful for hotspot detection. The median atmospheric CH4 concentration was 2,033 ppb, ranging from 1,821 to 2,796 ppb. We observed only moderate changes and fluctuations in values along the river. Tributaries did not obviously affect CH4 concentrations in the main river. The median CH4 emission was 251 μmol m−2 d−1, resulting in a total of 28,640 mol d−1 from the entire German Elbe. Similar numbers were obtained using a conventional sampling approach, indicating that continuous measurements are not essential for a large-scale budget. However, we observed considerable lateral heterogeneity, with significantly higher concentrations near the shore only in reaches with groins. Sedimentation and organic matter mineralization in groin fields evidently increase CH4 concentrations in the river, leading to considerable lateral heterogeneity. Thus, river morphology and structures determine the variability of dissolved CH4 in large rivers, resulting in smooth concentrations at the beginning of the Elbe versus a strong variability in its lower parts. In conclusion, groin construction is an additional anthropogenic modification following dam building that can significantly increase GHG emissions from rivers.

AbstractWater scarcity is a serious issue on many small coral islands, including the Spermonde Archipelago in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. An important driver behind it is population growth. Additionally, the predicted impacts of climate change will further accelerate the problem. While a lot of scientific attention has been paid to water scarcity in the Pacific, little is known about the situation in Indonesia. The paper presents the results of the first scientific study on water scarcity in an Indonesian Archipelago. It combines an analysis of historical and contemporary documents with a study about local perceptions on water scarcity. 160 people on four case study islands were interviewed about water availability and quality in the past and at present. The results show that although water scarcity is not a new issue, it has increased from the 1960s onwards. Possible anthropogenic and natural drivers behind this development are discussed, and management implications presented. It is argued that management measures need to be island-specific and require local institutions for water management.

Science-based, multinational management of the Baltic Sea offers lessons on amelioration of highly disturbed marine ecosystems.

The responses of macroalgae to ocean acidification could be altered by availability of macronutrients, such as ammonium (NH4+). This study determined how the opportunistic macroalga, Ulva australis responded to simultaneous changes in decreasing pH and NH4+ enrichment. This was investigated in a week-long growth experiment across a range of predicted future pHs with ambient and enriched NH4+ treatments followed by measurements of relative growth rates (RGR), NH4+ uptake rates and pools, total chlorophyll, and tissue carbon and nitrogen content. Rapid light curves (RLCs) were used to measure the maximum relative electron transport rate (rETRmax) and maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (PSII) photochemistry (Fv/Fm). Photosynthetic capacity was derived from the RLCs and included the efficiency of light harvesting (α), slope of photoinhibition (β), and the light saturation point (Ek). The results showed that NH4+ enrichment did not modify the effects of pH on RGRs, NH4+ uptake rates and pools, total chlorophyll, rETRmax, α, β, Fv/Fm, tissue C and N, and the C:N ratio. However, Ek was differentially affected by pH under different NH4+ treatments. Ek increased with decreasing pH in the ambient NH4+ treatment, but not in the enriched NH4+ treatment. NH4+ enrichment increased RGRs, NH4+ pools, total chlorophyll, rETRmax, α, β, Fv/Fm, and tissue N, and decreased NH4+ uptake rates and the C:N ratio. Decreased pH increased total chlorophyll content, rETRmax, Fv/Fm, and tissue N content, and decreased the C:N ratio. Therefore, the results indicate that U. australis growth is increased with NH4+ enrichment and not with decreasing pH. While decreasing pH influenced the carbon and nitrogen metabolisms of U. australis, it did not result in changes in growth.

Health recommendations advocating increased fish consumption need to be placed in the context of the potential collapse of global marine capture fisheries.Literature overview.In economically developed countries, official healthy eating advice is to eat more fish, particularly that rich in omega-3 oils. In many less economically developed countries, fish is a key human health asset, contributing >20% of animal protein intake for 2.6 billion people. Marine ecologists predict on current trends that fish stocks are set to collapse in 40 years, and propose increased restrictions on fishing, including no-take zones, in order to restore marine ecosystem health. Production of fishmeal for aquaculture and other non-food uses (22 MT in 2003) appears to be unsustainable. Differences in fish consumption probably contribute to within-country and international health inequalities. Such inequalities are likely to increase if fish stocks continue to decline, while increasing demand for fish will accelerate declines in fish stocks and the health of marine ecosystems.Urgent national and international action is necessary to address the tensions arising from increasing human demand for fish and seafood, and rapidly declining marine ecosystem health.