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This dataset includes the current version of the indicative distribution maps and profiles for Ecosystem Functional Groups - Level 3 of IUCN Global Ecosystem Typology (v2.1). Please refer to Keith et al. (2020) and Keith et al. (2022). The descriptive profiles provide brief summaries of key ecological traits and processes for each functional group of ecosystems to enable any ecosystem type to be assigned to a group. Maps are indicative of global distribution patterns and are not intended to represent fine-scale patterns. The maps show areas of the world containing major (value of 1, coloured red) or minor occurrences (value of 2, coloured yellow) of each ecosystem functional group. Minor occurrences are areas where an ecosystem functional group is scattered in patches within matrices of other ecosystem functional groups or where they occur in substantial areas, but only within a segment of a larger region. Most maps were prepared using a coarse-scale template (e.g. ecoregions), but some were compiled from higher resolution spatial data where available (see details in profiles). Higher resolution mapping is planned in future publications. We emphasise that spatial representation of Ecosystem Functional Groups does not follow higher-order groupings described in respective ecoregion classifications. Consequently, when Ecosystem Functional Groups are aggregated into functional biomes (Level 2 of the Global Ecosystem Typology), spatial patterns may differ from those of biogeographic biomes. Differences reflect the distinctions between functional and biogeographic interpretations of the term, “biome”. The PLuS Alliance supported a workshop in London to initiate development. DAK, EN, RTK, JRFP, JAR & NJM were supported by ARC Linkage Grants LP170101143 and LP180100159 and the MAVA Foundation. The IUCN Commission on Ecosystem Management supported travel for DAK to present aspects of the research to peers and stakeholders at International Congresses on Conservation Biology in 2017 and 2019, and at meetings in Africa, the middle east, and Europe. {"references": ["Keith, David et al. (Eds.) (2020) 'The IUCN Global Ecosystem Typology v2.0: Descriptive profiles for Biomes and Ecosystem Functional Groups'. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), Gland. DOI:10.2305/IUCN.CH.2020.13.en.", "Keith, David et al. (2022) 'A function-based typology for Earth's ecosystems'. Nature DOI:10.1038/s41586-022-05318-4"]}

# Long-term changes in taxonomic and functional composition of European marine fish communities The GitHub linked repository is here: [European_demersal_fish_assemblages (](https://github.com/auroreRECE/European_demersal_fish_assemblages)DOI [10.5281/zenodo.11190119](https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.11190119)) ## Overview This project is dedicated to studying the influence of environmental conditions and fishing on the functional and taxonomic structure of a demersal fish community in Europe. This GitHub repository provides the code of the Receveur et al. (2024) publication in Ecography. ## Data files description ### df\_MFA.csv This file contains the coordinates resulting from the Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA): * X : the row numbers ; * ID_unique : a unique ID number corresponding to the trawls ; * Dim.1 : the coordinate of each trawl on the first MFA dimension ; * Dim.2 : the coordinate of each trawl on the second MFA dimension ; * Dim.3 : the coordinate of each trawl on the third MFA dimension ; ### df\_PCA.csv This file contains the coordinates * X : the row numbers ; * ID_unique : a unique ID number corresponding to the trawls ; * Dim.1 : the coordinate of each trawl on the first PCA dimension ; * Dim.2 : the coordinate of each trawl on the second PCA dimension ; * Dim.3 : the coordinate of each trawl on the third PCA dimension ; ### df\_env.csv This file contains the following environmental parameters: * X : the row numbers ; * ID_unique : a unique ID number corresponding to the trawls ; * Year : the Year of each trawl ; * Quarter : the Quarter of each trawl ; * Ecoregion : the Ecoregion where each trawl has been done; * Survey : the name of the Survey ; * x_my_spatial_id : the longitude of the ICES rectangle where the trawl has been done ; * y_my_spatial_id : the latitude of the ICES rectangle where the trawl has been done ; * my_spatial_id : an ID for the ICES rectangle where the trawl has been done ; * depth : the bottom depth (meters) ; * depth_span : the bottom depth variability (maximum depth of the ICES cell - minimum depth) (meters) ; * chloro_mea: the mean chlorophyll-a concentration (mg/m³) ; * mlotst_mea : the mean mixed layer depth (meters) ; * oxy_bottom_mea : the mean bottom dissolved oxygen (umol/l) ; * oxy_surf_mea : the mean surface dissolved oxygen (umol/l) ; * temp_bottom_mea : the mean bottom temperature (°C) ; * temp_surf_mea : the mean surface temperature (°C) ; * curr_surf_mea : the mean surface current strength (m/s) ; * curr_bottom_mea : the mean bottom current strength (m/s) ; * sal_surf_mea : the mean surface salinity (PSU) ; * chloro_std : the standard deviation of chlorophyll-a concentration (mg/m³) ; * mlotst_std : the standard deviation of mixed layer depth (meters) ; * oxy_bottom_std : the standard deviation of bottom dissolved oxygen (umol/l) ; * oxy_surf_std : the standard deviation of surface dissolved oxygen (umol/l) ; * temp_bottom_std : the standard deviation of bottom temperature (°C) ; * temp_surf_std : the standard deviation of surface temperature (°C) ; * curr_surf_std : the standard deviation of surface current strength (m/s) ; * curr_bottom_std : the standard deviation of bottom current strength (m/s) ; * sal_surf_std : the standard deviation of surface salinity (PSU). ## Raw Data sources ### Biological data Trawls content is publicly available for the North East Atlantic (DATRAS database). Mediterranean data (MEDITS database) are available upon request to Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (MARE DATACOLLECTIONFRAMEWORK). The project uses the following surveys: | Survey Code | Survey name | Area | Period | References | | :---------- | :----------------------------------------------------- | :------------------------------------- | :-------: | :--------: | | BITS | Baltic International Trawl Survey | Baltic Sea | 1994-2019 | 4 | | BTS | Beam Trawl Survey | Celtic Sea; English Channel; North Sea | 1997-2019 | 7 | | BTS-VIII | Beam Trawl Survey – Bay of Biscay | Bay of Biscay | 2011-2019 | 7 | | DWS | Deepwater Survey | Irish Sea | 2006-2007 | 8 | | DYFS | Inshore Beam Trawl Survey | Southern North Sea | 2002-2019 | 7 | | EVHOE | French Southern Atlantic Bottom trawl Survey | Bay of Biscay and Celtic Sea | 2003-2019 | 1 | | FR-CGFS | French Channel ground Survey | English Channel | 1997-2019 | 2 | | IE-IAMS | Irish Anglerfish and megrim Survey | Scottish rockall and Irish Sea | 2016-2019 | 2 | | IE-IGFS | Irish Groundfish | Ireland Shelf Sea | 2003-2019 | 2 | | MEDITS | International bottom trawl survey in the Mediterranean | Mediterranean Sea | 1994-2018 | 9 | | NIGFS | Northern Ireland Groundfish Survey | Irish Sea | 2009-2019 | 2 | | NS-IBTS | North Sea International Bottom Trawl Survey | North Sea | 1997-2019 | 2 | | PT-IBTS | Portuguese International Bottom Trawl Survey | Portugal Shelf Sea | 2003-2017 | 2 | | ROCKALL | Scottish Rockall Survey (until 2010) | Rockall plateau | 2003-2009 | 2 | | SCOROC | Scottish Rockall Survey (from 2011) | Scottish plateau | 2011-2019 | 2 | | SCOWCGFS | Scottish West Coast Groundfish Survey | Scottish west coast | 2011-2019 | 2 | | SNS | Sole Net Survey | Southern North Sea | 2002-2019 | 7 | | SP-ARSA | Spanish Gulf of Cadiz Bottom Trawl Survey | Spain | 2003-2019 | 6 | | SP-NORTH | Spanish North Bottom Trawl Survey | North of Spain | 2003-2019 | 2 | | SP-PORC | Spanish Porcupine Bottom Trawl Survey | Irish Sea | 2003-2019 | 5 | | SWC-IBTS | Scottish West Coast International Bottom Trawl Survey | Scotland Shelf Sea | 1999-2010 | 2 | ### Trait data The complete traits data table is available upon request. It is a combination of the publicly available PANGAEA database, Fishbase information, and inference based on the FISHLIFE project. ### Environmental variables The data used are all publicly available on the Copernicus website. ### Fishing data The data used are all publicly available on the Global Fishing Watch website. ## Recommended Citation Please use the following citation: Receveur, A., Leprieur F., Ellingsen K., Keith D., Kleisner K., McLean M., Mérigot B., Mills K., Mouillot D., Rufino M., Trindade-Santos I., Van Hoey G., Albouy C., Auber A. Data for “Long-term changes in taxonomic and functional composition of European marine fish communities.” Dryad Digital Repository. (2024). doi.org/10.5061/dryad.x69p8czsj ## Acknowledgments This research is a product of the MAESTRO group funded by the synthesis center CESAB of the French Foundation for Research on Biodiversity (FRB). We thank France Filière Pêche (FFP) who founded the MAESTRO project. We also warmly thank all those who have contributed in any way to the scientific surveys and data collection/provision (European Institutions and scientists implicated in DATRAS-BTS, MEDITS, and DCF). ## References 1. ICES. The EVHOE survey (France). ICES Documents. (1997). Available at: https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00036/14707/12013.pdf 2. ICES. Manual of the IBTS North Eastern Atlantic Surveys. Series of ICES Survey Protocols SISP 15 (2017). doi:10.17895/ices.pub.3519 3. ICES. Manual for the International Bottom Trawl Surveys Revision VIII. Series of ICES Survey Protocols SISP 10 - IBTS IX. (2015). 4. https://ices-library.figshare.com/articles/report/SISP_7_-*Manual_for_the_Baltic_International_Trawl_Surveys_BITS*/19050986 5. https://gis.ices.dk/geonetwork/srv/api/records/ce94a257-c8b3-44f7-9fd0-6bd7449ce073 6. http://ices.dk/sites/pub/CM%20Doccuments/2002/D/D0302A.pdf 7. https://ices-library.figshare.com/articles/report/SISP_14_-*Manual_for_the_Offshore_Beam_Trawl_Surveys_WGBEAM*/19051328 8. https://gis.ices.dk/geonetwork/srv/api/records/936b4fb7-9baa-4dbc-abd0-b1b7bda16406 9. https://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00117/22783/20585.pdf Evidence of large-scale biodiversity degradation in marine ecosystems has been reported worldwide, yet most research has focused on few species of interest or on limited spatiotemporal scales. Here we assessed the spatial and temporal changes in the taxonomic and functional composition of fish communities in European seas over the last 25 years (1994-2019). We then explored how these community changes were linked to environmental gradients and fishing pressure. We show that the spatial variation in fish species composition is more than two times higher than the temporal variation, with a marked spatial continuum in taxonomic composition and a more homogenous pattern in functional composition. The regions warming the fastest are experiencing an increasing dominance and total abundance of r-strategy fish species (lower age of maturity). Conversely, regions warming more slowly show an increasing dominance and total abundance of K-strategy species (high trophic level and late reproduction). Among the considered environmental variables, sea surface temperature, surface salinity, and chlorophyll-a most consistently influenced communities’ spatial patterns, while bottom temperature and oxygen had the most consistent influence on temporal patterns. Changes in communities’ functional composition were more closely related to environmental conditions than taxonomic changes. Our study demonstrates the importance of integrating community-level species traits across multi-decadal scales and across a large region to better capture and understand ecosystem-wide responses and provides a different lens on community dynamics that could be used to support sustainable fisheries management.

Project: GCOS Earth Heat Inventory - A study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory (EHI), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period from 1960 to present. Summary: The file “GCOS_EHI_1960-2020_Earth_Heat_Inventory_Ocean_Heat_Content_data.nc” contains a consistent long-term Earth system heat inventory over the period 1960-2020. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere which is driving global warming. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system from this accumulated heat – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system - is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This dataset is based on a study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory published in von Schuckmann et al. (2020), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960-2020. The dataset also contains estimates for global ocean heat content over 1960-2020 for different depth layers, i.e., 0-300m, 0-700m, 700-2000m, 0-2000m, 2000-bottom, which are described in von Schuckmann et al. (2022). This version includes an update of heat storage of global ocean heat content, where one additional product (Li et al., 2022) had been included to the initial estimate. The Earth heat inventory had been updated accordingly, considering also the update for continental heat content (Cuesta-Valero et al., 2023).

La gestion des risques a réduit la vulnérabilité aux inondations et aux sécheresses dans le monde1,2, mais leurs impacts continuent d'augmenter3. Une meilleure compréhension des causes de l'évolution des impacts est donc nécessaire, mais a été entravée par un manque de données empiriques4,5. Sur la base d'un ensemble de données mondiales de 45 paires d'événements qui se sont produits dans la même zone, nous montrons que la gestion des risques réduit généralement les impacts des inondations et des sécheresses, mais fait face à des difficultés pour réduire les impacts d'événements sans précédent d'une ampleur jamais connue auparavant. Si le deuxième événement était beaucoup plus dangereux que le premier, son impact était presque toujours plus élevé. En effet, la gestion n'a pas été conçue pour faire face à de tels événements extrêmes : par exemple, ils ont dépassé les niveaux de conception des digues et des réservoirs. Dans deux cas de réussite, l'impact du deuxième événement, plus dangereux, a été plus faible, en raison de l'amélioration de la gouvernance de la gestion des risques et des investissements élevés dans la gestion intégrée. La difficulté observée à gérer des événements sans précédent est alarmante, étant donné que des événements hydrologiques plus extrêmes sont projetés en raison du changement climatique3. La gestión de riesgos ha reducido la vulnerabilidad a las inundaciones y sequías a nivel mundial1,2, pero sus impactos siguen aumentando3. Por lo tanto, se necesita una mejor comprensión de las causas de los impactos cambiantes, pero se ha visto obstaculizada por la falta de datos empíricos4,5. Sobre la base de un conjunto de datos global de 45 pares de eventos que ocurrieron dentro de la misma área, mostramos que la gestión de riesgos generalmente reduce los impactos de inundaciones y sequías, pero enfrenta dificultades para reducir los impactos de eventos sin precedentes de una magnitud no experimentada anteriormente. Si el segundo evento era mucho más peligroso que el primero, su impacto era casi siempre mayor. Esto se debe a que la gestión no fue diseñada para hacer frente a tales eventos extremos: por ejemplo, superaron los niveles de diseño de diques y embalses. En dos casos de éxito, el impacto del segundo evento, más peligroso, fue menor, como resultado de una mejor gobernanza de la gestión de riesgos y una alta inversión en la gestión integrada. La dificultad observada para gestionar eventos sin precedentes es alarmante, dado que se proyectan eventos hidrológicos más extremos debido al cambio climático3. Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3. أدت إدارة المخاطر إلى تقليل التعرض للفيضانات والجفاف على مستوى العالم1,2، ومع ذلك لا تزال آثارها تتزايد3. لذلك هناك حاجة إلى فهم أفضل لأسباب تغير التأثيرات، ولكن أعيق ذلك بسبب نقص البيانات التجريبية4، 5. على أساس مجموعة بيانات عالمية مكونة من 45 زوجًا من الأحداث التي وقعت داخل نفس المنطقة، نظهر أن إدارة المخاطر تقلل عمومًا من آثار الفيضانات والجفاف ولكنها تواجه صعوبات في الحد من آثار الأحداث غير المسبوقة ذات الحجم الذي لم تشهده من قبل. إذا كان الحدث الثاني أكثر خطورة من الأول، فإن تأثيره كان دائمًا أعلى. وذلك لأن الإدارة لم تكن مصممة للتعامل مع مثل هذه الأحداث المتطرفة: على سبيل المثال، تجاوزت مستويات تصميم السدود والخزانات. في قصتي نجاح، كان تأثير الحدث الثاني، الأكثر خطورة، أقل، نتيجة لتحسين حوكمة إدارة المخاطر والاستثمار العالي في الإدارة المتكاملة. إن الصعوبة الملحوظة في إدارة الأحداث غير المسبوقة تنذر بالخطر، بالنظر إلى أنه من المتوقع حدوث المزيد من الأحداث الهيدرولوجية المتطرفة بسبب تغير المناخ3.

The following project falls within the Rights of Nature movement as a response to the climatic crisis. It is situated in the Alps. From the moment Hannibal managed to lead his Carthagnian army, including their elephants, through the Alps until the construction of modernist glacial skiing resorts and monumental hydroelectric power plants, the Alps have been seen as an object to be overcome and exploited. This resulted in extensive infrastructural projects throughout the whole territory and at all elevations. In order to restore the agency of this living entity, the project repositions the Alps as an active subject with their own right. Moving through three phases – listening to - speaking with - negotiating on behalf of the Alps – results in the foundation for the Parliament of the Alps, composed of a group of people which will act as guardians of the Alps, and the illustration of their most urgent project. The site of the project is the Gepatsch glacier in the Ötztaler Alps in Austria, one of the largest and most rapidly melting glaciers in the territory. Glaciers are a record of time, connecting past, present and future. On one hand, the memory of the past – an archive of human interventions – shedding light on vernacular knowledge practices, gathered in their yearly deposited layers of ice and atmospheric particles. On the other hand a holder of meaning for the future, as their disappearance is causing major changes and challenges within the biophysical environment of diverse biotic and abiotic socioeconomic and cultural systems. The Alps are a true representation of the web of life, as the interdependencies of each part of their ecosystem are vital for the survival of each species. Many elements contribute to it, such as their East to West orientation, their ability and responsibility to collect water from the atmosphere, store it for dry seasons and years, carry it through their veins, and share it equitably and steadily with all living beings which are dependent on freshwater to survive – from the top of ...

Suggested citation: Pörtner, H.O., Scholes, R.J., Agard, J., Archer, E., Arneth, A., Bai, X., Barnes, D., Burrows, M., Chan, L., Cheung, W.L., Diamond, S., Donatti, C., Duarte, C., Eisenhauer, N., Foden, W., Gasalla, M. A., Handa, C., Hickler, T., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Ichii, K., Jacob, U., Insarov, G., Kiessling, W., Leadley, P., Leemans, R., Levin, L., Lim, M., Maharaj, S., Managi, S., Marquet, P. A., McElwee, P., Midgley, G., Oberdorff, T., Obura, D., Osman, E., Pandit, R., Pascual, U., Pires, A. P. F., Popp, A., Reyes-García, V., Sankaran, M., Settele, J., Shin, Y. J., Sintayehu, D. W., Smith, P., Steiner, N., Strassburg, B., Sukumar, R., Trisos, C., Val, A.L., Wu, J., Aldrian, E., Parmesan, C., Pichs-Madruga, R., Roberts, D.C., Rogers, A.D., Díaz, S., Fischer, M., Hashimoto, S., Lavorel, S., Wu, N., Ngo, H.T. 2021. IPBES-IPCC co-sponsored workshop report on biodiversity and climate change; IPBES and IPCC, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.4782538 This report presents the main conclusions of the first-ever IPCC-IPBES co-sponsored workshop which took place in December 2020. The workshop explored diverse facets of the interaction between climate and biodiversity, from current trends to the role and implementation of nature-based solutions and the sustainable development of human society. This report is underpinned by the Scientific Outcome, which includes seven sections, the complete references and the report glossary. You can find the Scientific Outcome here https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4659158

Résumé. Dans chaque cycle d'évaluation du GIEC, une multitude de scénarios sont évalués, avec une portée et une importance différentes dans les différents groupes de travail et rapports spéciaux et leurs chapitres respectifs. Dans les rapports, l'ambition est d'intégrer les connaissances sur les futurs climatiques possibles dans les groupes de travail et les domaines de recherche scientifique sur la base d'un petit ensemble de « voies de cadrage », telles que les voies dites RCP du cinquième rapport d'évaluation du GIEC (AR5) et les scénarios SSP-RCP dans le sixième rapport d'évaluation (AR6). Cette perspective, initiée par les discussions lors de l'atelier du GIEC à Bangkok en avril 2023 sur « l'utilisation des scénarios dans le RE6 et les évaluations ultérieures », est destinée à servir d'une des contributions de la communauté pour mettre en évidence les besoins pour la prochaine génération de voies de cadrage qui est avancée sous l'égide du CMIP pour une utilisation dans le RE7 du GIEC. Ici, nous suggérons un certain nombre d'objectifs de recherche politique qu'un tel ensemble de voies d'encadrement devrait idéalement remplir, y compris les besoins d'atténuation pour atteindre les objectifs de l'Accord de Paris, les risques associés aux stratégies d'élimination du carbone, les conséquences du retard dans la mise en œuvre de cette atténuation, des conseils pour les besoins d'adaptation, les pertes et les dommages, et pour la réalisation de l'atténuation dans le contexte plus large des objectifs de développement sociétal. Sur la base de ce contexte, nous suggérons que la prochaine génération de scénarios climatiques pour les modèles du système terrestre évolue vers des « voies d'émission représentatives » (REP) et suggérons des catégories clés pour ces voies. Ces « voies d'encadrement » devraient répondre aux besoins les plus critiques en matière de politique d'atténuation et d'adaptation au cours des 5 à 10 prochaines années. À notre avis, les catégories les plus importantes sont celles qui sont pertinentes dans le contexte de l'objectif à long terme de l'Accord de Paris, en particulier une action immédiate (dépassement faible) de 1,5 °C et une action retardée (dépassement élevé) de 1,5 °C. Deux autres catégories clés sont une catégorie de trajectoire approximativement conforme aux objectifs politiques actuels (tels qu'exprimés d'ici 2023) à court et à long terme, et une catégorie d'émissions plus élevées qui est approximativement conforme aux « politiques actuelles » (telles qu'exprimées d'ici 2023). Nous plaidons également en faveur de la pertinence scientifique et politique de l'exploration de deux « mondes qui auraient pu l'être ». L'une de ces catégories a des trajectoires d'émissions élevées bien au-dessus de ce que les politiques actuelles impliquent, et l'autre a des trajectoires d'émissions très faibles qui supposent que les mesures d'atténuation mondiales visant à limiter le réchauffement à 1,5 °C sans dépassement ont commencé en 2015. Enfin, nous notons que la fourniture en temps opportun de nouvelles informations scientifiques sur les voies est essentielle pour éclairer l'élaboration et la mise en œuvre de la politique climatique. Pour le deuxième bilan mondial dans le cadre de l'Accord de Paris en 2028, et pour éclairer le développement ultérieur des contributions déterminées au niveau national (CDN) jusqu'en 2040, des contributions scientifiques sont nécessaires bien avant 2028. Ces besoins doivent être soigneusement pris en compte dans le calendrier d'élaboration des activités de modélisation communautaire, y compris celles menées dans le cadre du CMIP7. Resumen. En cada ciclo de Evaluación del IPCC, se evalúan una multitud de escenarios, con diferentes alcances y énfasis a lo largo de los diversos Grupos de Trabajo e Informes Especiales y sus respectivos capítulos. Dentro de los informes, la ambición es integrar el conocimiento sobre posibles futuros climáticos en los Grupos de Trabajo y los dominios de investigación científica basados en un pequeño conjunto de "vías de encuadre", como las llamadas vías RCP del Quinto Informe de Evaluación del IPCC (AR5) y los escenarios SSP-RCP en el Sexto Informe de Evaluación (AR6). Esta perspectiva, iniciada por las discusiones en el taller del IPCC en Bangkok en abril de 2023 sobre el "Uso de escenarios en el IE6 y evaluaciones posteriores", pretende servir como una de las contribuciones de la comunidad para resaltar las necesidades de la próxima generación de vías de encuadre que se está avanzando bajo el paraguas del CMIP para su uso en el IE7 del IPCC. Aquí sugerimos una serie de objetivos de investigación de políticas que ese conjunto de vías de encuadre debería cumplir idealmente, incluidas las necesidades de mitigación para cumplir los objetivos del Acuerdo de París, los riesgos asociados con las estrategias de eliminación de carbono, las consecuencias del retraso en la promulgación de esa mitigación, la orientación para las necesidades de adaptación, las pérdidas y los daños, y para lograr la mitigación en el contexto más amplio de los objetivos de desarrollo social. Con base en este contexto, sugerimos que la próxima generación de escenarios climáticos para los Modelos del Sistema Terrestre evolucione hacia 'Vías de Emisión Representativas' (REP) y sugerimos categorías clave para tales vías. Estas "vías de encuadre" deberían abordar las políticas de mitigación y las necesidades de adaptación más críticas en los próximos 5–10 años. En nuestra opinión, las categorías más importantes son las relevantes en el contexto del objetivo a largo plazo del Acuerdo de París, específicamente una vía de acción inmediata (sobrepaso bajo) de 1,5 °C y una vía de acción retardada (sobrepaso alto) de 1,5 °C. Otras dos categorías clave son una categoría de vía aproximadamente en línea con los objetivos políticos actuales (expresados para 2023) a corto y largo plazo, y una categoría de emisiones más altas que está aproximadamente en línea con las "políticas actuales" (expresadas para 2023). También defendemos la relevancia científica y política de explorar dos "mundos que podrían haber sido". Una de estas categorías tiene trayectorias de altas emisiones muy por encima de lo que implican las políticas actuales, y la otra tiene trayectorias de muy bajas emisiones que asumen que la acción de mitigación global en línea con la limitación del calentamiento a 1.5 ° C sin sobrepasar había comenzado en 2015. Finalmente, observamos que el suministro oportuno de nueva información científica sobre las vías es fundamental para informar el desarrollo y la implementación de la política climática. Para el segundo Balance Global bajo el Acuerdo de París en 2028, y para informar el desarrollo posterior de las Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional (NDC) hasta 2040, se requieren insumos científicos mucho antes de 2028. Estas necesidades deben considerarse cuidadosamente en el cronograma de desarrollo de las actividades de modelado comunitario, incluidas las del CMIP7. Abstract. In every IPCC Assessment cycle, a multitude of scenarios are assessed, with different scope and emphasis throughout the various Working Group and Special Reports and their respective chapters. Within the reports, the ambition is to integrate knowledge on possible climate futures across the Working Groups and scientific research domains based on a small set of ‘framing pathways’, such as the so-called RCP pathways from the Fifth IPCC Assessment report (AR5) and the SSP-RCP scenarios in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This perspective, initiated by discussions at the IPCC Bangkok workshop in April 2023 on the “Use of Scenarios in AR6 and Subsequent Assessments”, is intended to serve as one of the community contributions to highlight needs for the next generation of framing pathways that is being advanced under the CMIP umbrella for use in the IPCC AR7. Here we suggest a number of policy research objectives that such a set of framing pathways should ideally fulfil, including mitigation needs for meeting the Paris Agreement objectives, the risks associated with carbon removal strategies, the consequences of delay in enacting that mitigation, guidance for adaptation needs, loss and damage, and for achieving mitigation in the wider context of Societal Development goals. Based on this context we suggest that the next generation of climate scenarios for Earth System Models should evolve towards ‘Representative Emission Pathways’ (REPs) and suggest key categories for such pathways. These ‘framing pathways’ should address the most critical mitigation policy and adaptation needs over the next 5–10 years. In our view the most important categories are those relevant in the context of the Paris Agreement long-term goal, specifically an immediate action (low overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway, and a delayed action (high overshoot) 1.5 °C pathway. Two other key categories are a pathway category approximately in line with current (as expressed by 2023) near- and long-term policy objectives, and a higher emissions category that is approximately in line with “current policies” (as expressed by 2023). We also argue for the scientific and policy relevance in exploring two ‘worlds that could have been’. One of these categories has high emission trajectories well above what is implied by current policies, and the other has very low emission trajectories that assume that global mitigation action in line with limiting warming to 1.5 °C without overshoot had begun in 2015. Finally, we note that timely provision of new scientific information on pathways is critical to inform the development and implementation of climate policy. For the second Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement in 2028, and to inform subsequent development of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2040, scientific inputs are required well before 2028. These needs should be carefully considered in the development timeline of community modelling activities including those under CMIP7. الملخص. في كل دورة تقييم للهيئة الحكومية الدولية المعنية بتغير المناخ، يتم تقييم العديد من السيناريوهات، مع نطاق وتركيز مختلفين في مختلف مجموعات العمل والتقارير الخاصة وفصولها. ضمن التقارير، يتمثل الطموح في دمج المعرفة حول المستقبل المناخي المحتمل عبر مجموعات العمل ومجالات البحث العلمي بناءً على مجموعة صغيرة من "مسارات التأطير"، مثل ما يسمى مسارات RCP من تقرير التقييم الخامس للهيئة الحكومية الدولية المعنية بتغير المناخ (AR5) وسيناريوهات SSP - RCP في تقرير التقييم السادس (AR6). يهدف هذا المنظور، الذي بدأته المناقشات في ورشة عمل الفريق الحكومي الدولي المعني بتغير المناخ في بانكوك في أبريل 2023 حول "استخدام السيناريوهات في التقرير التقييمي السادس والتقييمات اللاحقة"، إلى أن يكون أحد مساهمات المجتمع لتسليط الضوء على احتياجات الجيل القادم من مسارات التأطير التي يتم تطويرها تحت مظلة الفريق الحكومي الدولي المعني بتغير المناخ لاستخدامها في التقرير التقييمي السابع للفريق الحكومي الدولي المعني بتغير المناخ. نقترح هنا عددًا من أهداف أبحاث السياسات التي يجب أن تلبيها مجموعة مسارات التأطير هذه بشكل مثالي، بما في ذلك احتياجات التخفيف لتحقيق أهداف اتفاق باريس، والمخاطر المرتبطة باستراتيجيات إزالة الكربون، وعواقب التأخير في سن هذا التخفيف، وتوجيه احتياجات التكيف، والخسائر والأضرار، ولتحقيق التخفيف في السياق الأوسع لأهداف التنمية المجتمعية. بناءً على هذا السياق، نقترح أن يتطور الجيل التالي من سيناريوهات المناخ لنماذج النظام الأرضي نحو "مسارات الانبعاثات التمثيلية" (REPs) واقتراح الفئات الرئيسية لمثل هذه المسارات. يجب أن تتناول "مسارات التأطير" هذه أهم سياسات التخفيف واحتياجات التكيف على مدى السنوات الخمس إلى العشر القادمة. من وجهة نظرنا، فإن أهم الفئات هي تلك ذات الصلة في سياق الهدف طويل الأجل لاتفاق باريس، وتحديداً مسار الإجراء الفوري (التجاوز المنخفض) 1.5 درجة مئوية، ومسار الإجراء المتأخر (التجاوز العالي) 1.5 درجة مئوية. هناك فئتان رئيسيتان أخريان هما فئة المسار التي تتماشى تقريبًا مع أهداف السياسة الحالية (كما هو معبر عنه بحلول عام 2023) على المدى القريب والطويل، وفئة الانبعاثات الأعلى التي تتماشى تقريبًا مع "السياسات الحالية" (كما هو معبر عنه بحلول عام 2023). كما ندعو إلى الأهمية العلمية والسياسية لاستكشاف "عالمين كان من الممكن أن يكونا". واحدة من هذه الفئات لديها مسارات انبعاثات عالية أعلى بكثير مما تنطوي عليه السياسات الحالية، والأخرى لديها مسارات انبعاثات منخفضة للغاية تفترض أن إجراءات التخفيف العالمية بما يتماشى مع الحد من الاحترار إلى 1.5 درجة مئوية دون تجاوز قد بدأت في عام 2015. أخيرًا، نلاحظ أن توفير المعلومات العلمية الجديدة في الوقت المناسب حول المسارات أمر بالغ الأهمية لإثراء تطوير وتنفيذ سياسة المناخ. بالنسبة للتقييم العالمي الثاني بموجب اتفاقية باريس في عام 2028، وللإبلاغ عن التطوير اللاحق للمساهمات المحددة وطنيًا (NDCs) حتى عام 2040، هناك حاجة إلى مدخلات علمية قبل عام 2028 بوقت طويل. يجب النظر في هذه الاحتياجات بعناية في الجدول الزمني لتطوير أنشطة النمذجة المجتمعية بما في ذلك تلك الموجودة في إطار CMIP7.

Suggested citation: Pörtner, H.O., Scholes, R.J., Agard, J., Archer, E., Arneth, A., Bai, X., Barnes, D., Burrows, M., Chan, L., Cheung, W.L., Diamond, S., Donatti, C., Duarte, C., Eisenhauer, N., Foden, W., Gasalla, M. A., Handa, C., Hickler, T., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., Ichii, K., Jacob, U., Insarov, G., Kiessling, W., Leadley, P., Leemans, R., Levin, L., Lim, M., Maharaj, S., Managi, S., Marquet, P. A., McElwee, P., Midgley, G., Oberdorff, T., Obura, D., Osman, E., Pandit, R., Pascual, U., Pires, A. P. F., Popp, A., Reyes-García, V., Sankaran, M., Settele, J., Shin, Y. J., Sintayehu, D. W., Smith, P., Steiner, N., Strassburg, B., Sukumar, R., Trisos, C., Val, A.L., Wu, J., Aldrian, E., Parmesan, C., Pichs-Madruga, R., Roberts, D.C., Rogers, A.D., Díaz, S., Fischer, M., Hashimoto, S., Lavorel, S., Wu, N., Ngo, H.T. 2021. IPBES-IPCC co-sponsored workshop report synopsis on biodiversity and climate change; IPBES and IPCC, DOI:10.5281/zenodo.4782538 The Synopsis presents the main conclusions of the first-ever IPCC-IPBES co-sponsored workshop which took place in December 2020. The workshop explored diverse facets of the interaction between climate and biodiversity, from current trends to the role and implementation of nature-based solutions and the sustainable development of human society. This Synopsis is underpinned by the Scientific Outcome, which includes seven sections, the complete references and the report glossary. You can find the Scientific Outcome here https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4659158