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Abstract Wind climate analysis and modelling is of most importance during site selection for offshore wind farm development. In this regard, reliable long-term wind data are required. Buoy measurements are considered as a reference source in relevant applications including evaluation and calibration of wind data obtained from less reliable sources, combined assessment, blending and homogenization of multi-source wind data, etc. Most of these applications are based on regression techniques elaborated by using the principle of ordinary least squares (OLS). However, wind data usually contain several outliers, which may question the validity of the regression analysis, if not properly considered. This study is focused on the implementation of the most important robust regression methods, which can identify and reveal outliers, and retain at the same time their efficiency. Long-term reference wind data series obtained from buoys at six locations in the Mediterranean Sea are used to calibrate hindcast (model) wind data by applying robust methods and OLS. The obtained results are compared according to several statistical measures. The effects of the calibration methods are also assessed with respect to the available wind power potential. The results clearly suggest that least trimmed squares and L1-estimator perform in all respects better than OLS.

A cal. 20-year-resolution pollen record from Gonghai Lake presented the detailed process of mountain vegetation succession and East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) changes since the last deglaciation in Shanxi Province, North China. Modern vegetation distribution and lake surface pollen assemblages suggested that the fossil pollen mainly came from local and surrounding vegetation in Gonghai Lake, which reflected the elevational changes of plant communities in study area. From 14,700 to 11,100 cal. yr BP, open forests and mountain meadows dominated by shrubs and herbaceous species in surrounding area, suggesting a weak EASM with less precipitation. In the period between 11,100 and 7300 cal. yr BP, bushwoods and grasses were gradually replaced by mixed broadleaf-conifer forest, first developed by pioneer species of Betula and Populus and then replaced by Picea, Pinus, and Quercus, implying an enhanced EASM and increased temperature and precipitation. During the period of 7300–5000 cal. yr BP, warm-fitted trees became expanded and widespread, indicating a climax community of mixed broadleaf-conifer forest and warm and humid climate with higher temperature and sufficient precipitation and the strongest period of EASM. From 5000 to 1600 cal. yr BP, Pinus pollen increased, but Quercus pollen decreased, showing the breakup of the climax community and the recession of the EASM. Since 1600 cal. yr BP, under the threats of land reclamation and deforestation, forest cover sharply decreased, and mountain grass lands were developed. The EASM changes inferred from pollen record of Gonghai Lake were asynchronous to the oxygen isotope records of stalagmites from southern China. We suggest that the existence of remnant Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and relative low sea levels might hampered the northward penetration of the EASM in early Holocene, which caused the maximum monsoon precipitation to reach northern China until mid-Holocene.

A risk framework has been developed to examine the influence of climate change on disease emergence in the United Kingdom. The fish immune response and the replication of pathogens are often correlated with water temperature, which manifest as temperature ranges for infection and clinical diseases. These data are reviewed for the major endemic and exotic disease threats to freshwater fish. Increasing water temperatures will shift the balance in favour of either the host or pathogen, changing the frequency and distribution of disease. A number of endemic diseases of salmonids (e.g. enteric red mouth, furunculosis, proliferative kidney disease and white spot) will become more prevalent and difficult to control as water temperatures increase. Outbreaks of koi herpesvirus in carp fisheries are likely to occur over a longer period each summer. Climate change also alters the threat level associated with exotic pathogens. The risk of viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHSV), infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) and spring viraemia of carp virus (SVCV) declines as infection generally only establishes when water temperatures are less than 14°C for VHSV and IHNV and 17°C for SCVC. The risk of establishment of other exotic pathogens (epizootic haematopoietic necrosis and epizootic ulcerative syndrome) increases. The spread of Lactococcus garvieae northwards in Europe is likely to continue, and thus is more likely to be both introduced and become established. Measures to reduce the threat of exotic pathogens need to be revised to account for the changing exotic diseases threat. Increasing water temperatures and the negative effects of extreme weather events (e.g. storms) are likely to alter the freshwater environment adversely for both wild and farmed salmonid populations, increasing their susceptibility to disease and the likelihood of disease emergence. For wild populations, surveillance and risk mitigation need to be focused on locations where disease emergence, as a result of climate change, is most likely.

Coral reefs in the tropical Pacific region are exposed to a range of anthropogenic local pressures. Climate change is exacerbating local impacts, causing unprecedented declines in coral reef habitats and bringing negative socio-economic consequences to Pacific communities who depend heavily on coral reefs for food, income and livelihoods. Continued increases in greenhouse gas emissions will drive future climate change, which will accelerate coral reef degradation. Traditional systems of resource governance in Pacific island nations provide a foundation to address local pressures and build reef resilience to climate change. Management and adaptation options should build on the regional diversity of governance systems and traditional knowledge to support community-based initiatives and cross-sectoral cooperation to address local pressures and minimize climate change impacts. Such an inclusive approach will offer enhanced opportunities to develop and implement transformative adaptation solutions, particularly in remote and regional areas where centralized management does not extend.

In an increasingly complex waste market, market-based policy instruments, such as disposal taxes, can give incentives for sustainable progress while leaving flexibility for innovation. However, implementation of disposal taxes is often criticised by domestic waste handlers that fear to be outcompeted by competitors in other countries. The article discusses three innovative market-based instruments that limit the impact on international competitiveness: Tradable recycling credits, refunded disposal taxes and differentiated disposal taxes. All three instruments have already been implemented for distinct environmental policies in Europe. In order to illustrate how these instruments can be used for waste policy, the literature review is complemented with a case study on shredder residues from metal-containing waste streams in Belgium. The analysis shows that a conventional disposal tax remains the most efficient, simple and transparent instrument. However, if international competition is a significant issue or if political support is weak, refunded and differentiated disposal taxes can have an added value as second-best instruments. Tradable recycling credits are not an appropriate instrument for use in small waste markets with market power. In addition, refunded taxes create similar incentives, but induce lower transactions costs.

To identify some of the possible environmental factors stimulating the increasingly frequent outbreaks of the scyphomedusa Pelagia noctiluca in the Straits of Messina, we investigated its abundance, growth, reproduction and feeding over a 4-year period, from 2007 to 2011, at two coastal sites. Using either field investigations and manipulative experiments we show that, among the various factors considered, shifts in water temperature (influencing medusae metabolism, growth and reproduction rates) and the size structure of the zooplankton community (their natural preys) can promote the proliferation of P. noctiluca. In particular, we show that increased temperature let jellyfishes to grow more rapidly and reach exceptional sizes. We also report a peculiar opportunistic behavior of P. noctiluca, which makes this species a potentially strong competitor in the pelagic trophic web of the Straits ecosystem. We therefore propose that more frequent P. noctiluca outbreaks stimulated by increasing sea surface temperature and shifts in their prey availability and composition would become, in the near future, a major cause of ecosystem shift.

Among the various quality elements which the Water Framework Directive requires should be monitored are macroalgae. One aspect of these is the presence, in transitional waters particularly, of large blooms of opportunistic macroalgae, such as Ulva and Enteromorpha. Within the United Kingdom (UK) and Republic of Ireland (RoI) there are currently no set ecological quality objectives or standards for macroalgae. Nor are there standard methods for monitoring macroalgal blooms, although various combinations of aerial photography, remote sensing and measurements on the ground are used. This paper attempts to set a logical framework for the prioritisation of sites for monitoring, the development of a tiered monitoring procedure and the derivation of thresholds for classification. Draft threshold limits for percentage cover and biomass of macroalgae have been derived from the literature. The importance of secondary effects and physico-chemical parameters is discussed.

As a consequence of increasing atmospheric CO(2), the world's oceans are warming and slowly becoming more acidic (ocean acidification, OA) and profound changes in marine ecosystems are certain. Calcification is one of the primary targets for studies of the impact of CO(2)-driven climate change in the oceans and one of the key marine groups most likely to be impacted by predicted climate change events are the echinoderms. Echinoderms are a vital component of the marine environment with representatives in virtually every ecosystem, where they are often keystone ecosystem engineers. This paper reviews and analyses what is known about the impact of near-future ocean acidification on echinoderms. A global analysis of the literature reveals that echinoderms are surprisingly robust to OA and that important differences in sensitivity to OA are observed between populations and species. However, this is modulated by parameters such as (1) exposure time with rare longer term experiments revealing negative impacts that are hidden in short or midterm ones; (2) bottlenecks in physiological processes and life-cycle such as stage-specific developmental phenomena that may drive the whole species responses; (3) ecological feedback transforming small scale sub lethal effects into important negative effects on fitness. We hypothesize that populations/species naturally exposed to variable environmental pH conditions may be pre-adapted to future OA highlighting the importance to understand and monitor environmental variations in order to be able to to predict sensitivity to future climate changes. More stress ecology research is needed at the frontier between ecotoxicology and ecology, going beyond standardized tests using model species in order to address multiple water quality factors (e.g. pH, temperature, toxicants) and organism health. However, available data allow us to conclude that near-future OA will have negative impact on echinoderm taxa with likely significant consequences at the ecosystem level.