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    Authors: Alma Mendoza‐Ponce; Rogelio O. Corona‐Núñez; Luzma Fabiola Nava; Francisco Estrada; +6 Authors

    Le changement d'utilisation des terres/de couverture est la principale cause de dégradation des écosystèmes terrestres. Cependant, ses impacts seront exacerbés en raison du changement climatique et de la croissance démographique, entraînant une expansion agricole en raison de la demande accrue de denrées alimentaires et de la baisse des rendements agricoles dans certaines zones tropicales. Les stratégies internationales visant à atténuer les impacts du changement climatique et du changement du couvert terrestre sont difficiles dans les régions en développement. Cette étude vise à évaluer des alternatives pour minimiser les impacts de ces menaces dans le cadre de trajectoires socio-économiques, dans l'une des régions les plus biologiquement riches du Guatemala et du Mexique. Cette étude est située dans le bassin versant d'Usumacinta, une région transfrontalière qui partage une histoire commune, avec des propriétés biophysiques et des contraintes économiques similaires qui ont conduit à d'importants changements dans l'utilisation/la couverture des terres. Pour comprendre les impacts sur la déforestation et les émissions de carbone des différentes pratiques de gestion des terres, nous avons développé trois scénarios (1) : le statu quo (BAU), (2) un scénario de réduction des émissions visant à réduire la déforestation et la dégradation (REDD+) et (3) zéro déforestation à partir de 2030 sur la base des engagements internationaux. Nos résultats suggèrent que d'ici 2050, la couverture terrestre naturelle pourrait réduire de 22,3 et 12,2% son étendue dans les scénarios BAU et REDD +, respectivement par rapport à 2012. Cependant, le scénario zéro déforestation montre que d'ici 2050, il serait possible d'éviter de perdre 22,4 % du bassin versant boisé (1,7 million d'hectares) et d'en récupérer 5,9 % (0,4 million d'hectares). En termes de séquestration du carbone, les projets REDD + peuvent réduire les pertes de carbone dans la végétation naturelle, mais une politique de zéro déforestation peut doubler la séquestration du carbone produite par les projets REDD + uniquement. Cette étude montre que pour réduire les pressions sur les écosystèmes, en particulier dans les régions fortement marginalisées avec des migrations importantes, il est nécessaire de mettre en œuvre des politiques transfrontalières de gestion des terres qui intègrent également des stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté. El cambio en el uso/cobertura de la tierra es la principal causa de la degradación de los ecosistemas terrestres. Sin embargo, sus impactos se exacerbarán debido al cambio climático y al crecimiento de la población, impulsando la expansión agrícola debido a una mayor demanda de alimentos y menores rendimientos agrícolas en algunas áreas tropicales. Las estrategias internacionales destinadas a mitigar los impactos del cambio climático y el cambio en la cobertura del uso de la tierra son un desafío en las regiones en desarrollo. Este estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar alternativas para minimizar los impactos de estas amenazas bajo trayectorias socioeconómicas, en una de las regiones biológicamente más ricas de Guatemala y México. Este estudio se encuentra en la cuenca de Usumacinta, una región transfronteriza que comparte una historia común, con propiedades biofísicas y limitaciones económicas similares que han llevado a grandes cambios en el uso/cobertura de la tierra. Para comprender los impactos en la deforestación y las emisiones de carbono de las diferentes prácticas de gestión de la tierra, desarrollamos tres escenarios (1): negocios como siempre (BAU), (2) un escenario de reducción de emisiones destinado a reducir la deforestación y la degradación (REDD+) y (3) cero deforestación a partir de 2030 en función de los compromisos internacionales. Nuestros resultados sugieren que para 2050, la cobertura natural de la tierra podría reducir el 22.3 y el 12.2% de su extensión bajo los escenarios BAU y REDD +, respectivamente, en comparación con 2012. Sin embargo, el escenario de deforestación cero muestra que para 2050, sería posible evitar la pérdida del 22,4% de la cuenca forestal (1,7 millones de ha) y recuperar el 5,9% (0,4 millones de hectáreas) de la misma. En términos de secuestro de carbono, los proyectos REDD + pueden reducir las pérdidas de carbono en la vegetación natural, pero una política de deforestación cero puede duplicar el secuestro de carbono producido solo por los proyectos REDD +. Este estudio muestra que para reducir las presiones sobre los ecosistemas, particularmente en regiones altamente marginadas con una migración significativa, es necesario implementar políticas transfronterizas de gestión de la tierra que también integren estrategias de alivio de la pobreza. Land-use/cover change is the major cause of terrestrial ecosystem degradation. However, its impacts will be exacerbated due to climate change and population growth, driving agricultural expansion because of higher demand of food and lower agricultural yields in some tropical areas. International strategies aimed to mitigate impacts of climate change and land use-cover change are challenging in developing regions. This study aims to evaluate alternatives to minimize the impacts of these threats under socioeconomic trajectories, in one of the biologically richest regions in Guatemala and Mexico. This study is located at the Usumacinta watershed, a transboundary region that shares a common history, with similar biophysical properties and economic constraints which have led to large land use/cover changes. To understand the impacts on deforestation and carbon emissions of different land-management practices, we developed three scenarios (1): business as usual (BAU), (2) a reducing emissions scenario aimed to reduce deforestation and degradation (REDD+), and (3) zero-deforestation from 2030 onwards based on the international commitments. Our results suggest that by 2050, natural land cover might reduce 22.3 and 12.2% of its extent under the BAU and REDD + scenarios, respectively in comparison with 2012. However, the zero-deforestation scenario shows that by 2050, it would be possible to avoid losing 22.4% of the forested watershed (1.7 million ha) and recover 5.9% (0.4 million hectares) of it. In terms of carbon sequestration, REDD + projects can reduce the carbon losses in natural vegetation, but a zero-deforestation policy can double the carbon sequestration produced by REDD + projects only. This study shows that to reduce the pressures on ecosystems, particularly in regions highly marginalized with significant migration, it is necessary to implement transboundary land-management policies that also integrate poverty alleviation strategies. استخدام الأراضي/تغيير الغطاء هو السبب الرئيسي لتدهور النظام الإيكولوجي الأرضي. ومع ذلك، ستتفاقم آثاره بسبب تغير المناخ والنمو السكاني، مما يؤدي إلى التوسع الزراعي بسبب ارتفاع الطلب على الغذاء وانخفاض الغلة الزراعية في بعض المناطق الاستوائية. تشكل الاستراتيجيات الدولية الرامية إلى التخفيف من آثار تغير المناخ وتغير استخدام الأراضي تحدياً في المناطق النامية. تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تقييم البدائل لتقليل آثار هذه التهديدات في إطار المسارات الاجتماعية والاقتصادية، في واحدة من أغنى المناطق بيولوجيًا في غواتيمالا والمكسيك. تقع هذه الدراسة في مستجمع مياه أوسوماسينتا، وهي منطقة عابرة للحدود تشترك في تاريخ مشترك، مع خصائص فيزيائية حيوية مماثلة وقيود اقتصادية أدت إلى تغييرات كبيرة في استخدام الأراضي/تغطيتها. لفهم تأثيرات ممارسات إدارة الأراضي المختلفة على إزالة الغابات وانبعاثات الكربون، وضعنا ثلاثة سيناريوهات (1): العمل كالمعتاد (BAU)، (2) سيناريو خفض الانبعاثات الذي يهدف إلى الحد من إزالة الغابات وتدهورها (REDD+)، و (3) إزالة الغابات الصفرية اعتبارًا من عام 2030 فصاعدًا بناءً على الالتزامات الدولية. تشير نتائجنا إلى أنه بحلول عام 2050، قد يقلل الغطاء الأرضي الطبيعي بنسبة 22.3 و 12.2 ٪ من مداه في إطار سيناريو العمل الاعتيادي وسيناريو خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية، على التوالي مقارنة بعام 2012. ومع ذلك، يُظهر سيناريو إزالة الغابات الصفرية أنه بحلول عام 2050، سيكون من الممكن تجنب فقدان 22.4 ٪ من مستجمعات المياه الحرجية (1.7 مليون هكتار) واستعادة 5.9 ٪ (0.4 مليون هكتار) منها. من حيث عزل الكربون، يمكن لمشاريع خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية أن تقلل من خسائر الكربون في الغطاء النباتي الطبيعي، ولكن سياسة إزالة الغابات الصفرية يمكن أن تضاعف عزل الكربون الناتج عن مشاريع خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية فقط. تُظهر هذه الدراسة أنه للحد من الضغوط على النظم الإيكولوجية، لا سيما في المناطق المهمشة للغاية مع الهجرة الكبيرة، من الضروري تنفيذ سياسات إدارة الأراضي العابرة للحدود التي تدمج أيضًا استراتيجيات التخفيف من حدة الفقر.

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    Journal of Environmental Management
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Journal of Environmental Management
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/q7...
    Other literature type . 2021
    Data sources: Datacite
    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/v5...
    Other literature type . 2021
    Data sources: Datacite
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ IIASA DAREarrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Journal of Environmental Management
      Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      Journal of Environmental Management
      Article
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: UnpayWall
      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/q7...
      Other literature type . 2021
      Data sources: Datacite
      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/v5...
      Other literature type . 2021
      Data sources: Datacite
      addClaim

      This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Ken E. Giller; Frédéric Baudron; Pytrik Reidsma; João Vasco Silva; +3 Authors

    L'intensification durable a été proposée comme moyen d'atteindre la sécurité alimentaire et de réduire les impacts environnementaux de l'agriculture en se concentrant sur la réduction des écarts de rendement sur les terres agricoles existantes tout en améliorant l'efficacité de l'utilisation des ressources. Il existe un consensus général sur le fait que les régions présentant de grands écarts de rendement peuvent bénéficier le plus d'une intensification durable, mais il n'est pas clair dans quelle mesure cela est durable pour les agriculteurs compte tenu de leurs contraintes actuelles en matière de ressources et de leurs stratégies de subsistance. Ici, nous nous appuyons sur trois études de cas contrastées, pour lesquelles des données détaillées au niveau des champs et des exploitations étaient disponibles pour la décomposition des écarts de rendement, afin d'évaluer le fonctionnement de l'intensification durable des cultures (au niveau des champs) au niveau des exploitations à l'aide d'indicateurs environnementaux et socio-économiques. Bien qu'il existe un grand potentiel d'intensification future (plus de production avec plus d'intrants) de la production céréalière dans le sud de l'Éthiopie, l'utilisation actuelle des intrants dans ces systèmes agricoles n'est pas durable sur les plans économique et environnemental au niveau des exploitations. Il en va de même pour la production de riz dans le centre de Luçon, où une intensification durable (plus de production avec moins d'intrants) peut aider à réduire les écarts de rendement et à améliorer l'efficacité de l'utilisation de l'azote (nue), mais elle n'est pas rentable en raison de la forte dépendance à une main-d' œuvre embauchée coûteuse. Des compromis entre la réduction de l'écart de rendement et la productivité du travail ont également été observés dans les systèmes agricoles susmentionnés. Les fermes arables aux Pays-Bas présentent de faibles écarts de rendement ainsi que des performances économiques, des nue et des excédents d'azote plus élevés que ceux observés dans le sud de l'Éthiopie et le centre de Luçon. Pour améliorer la durabilité environnementale, ces exploitations nécessitent des augmentations de l'efficacité de l'utilisation des ressources et une réduction des impacts environnementaux grâce à une utilisation moindre des intrants (même production avec moins d'intrants). Nous concluons que les investissements publics propices à l'innovation et à une agriculture rentable sont essentiels pour rendre les technologies accessibles et abordables pour les agriculteurs et pour veiller à ce que les écarts de rendement puissent être réduits et que les objectifs de durabilité soient atteints au niveau des exploitations. La intensificación sostenible se ha propuesto como una vía para lograr la seguridad alimentaria y reducir los impactos ambientales de la agricultura, centrándose en reducir las brechas de rendimiento en las tierras agrícolas existentes al tiempo que se mejora la eficiencia en el uso de los recursos. Existe un consenso general de que las regiones con grandes brechas de rendimiento pueden beneficiarse más de la intensificación sostenible, pero no está claro qué tan sostenible es esto para los agricultores dadas sus actuales limitaciones de recursos y estrategias de medios de vida. Aquí, nos basamos en tres estudios de casos contrastantes, para los cuales se disponía de datos detallados a nivel de campo y granja para la descomposición de la brecha de rendimiento, para evaluar cómo funciona la intensificación sostenible de los cultivos (a nivel de campo) a nivel de granja utilizando indicadores ambientales y socioeconómicos. Aunque existe un gran potencial para la intensificación futura (más producción con más insumos) de la producción de cereales en el sur de Etiopía, el uso actual de insumos en estos sistemas agrícolas no es económica y ambientalmente sostenible a nivel de granja. Lo mismo ocurre con la producción de arroz en Luzón Central, donde la intensificación sostenible (más producción con menos insumos) puede ayudar a reducir las brechas de rendimiento y mejorar la eficiencia del uso del N (nue), pero no es rentable debido a la gran dependencia de la costosa mano de obra contratada. También se observaron compensaciones entre el cierre de la brecha de rendimiento y la productividad laboral en los sistemas agrícolas mencionados anteriormente. Las granjas cultivables en los Países Bajos exhiben pequeñas brechas de rendimiento, así como un mayor rendimiento económico, superávit de nue y N en comparación con las observadas en el sur de Etiopía y el centro de Luzón. Para mejorar la sostenibilidad ambiental, estas granjas requieren aumentos en la eficiencia del uso de los recursos y una reducción de los impactos ambientales a través de un menor uso de insumos (mismo producto con menos insumos). Concluimos que las inversiones públicas propicias para la innovación y la agricultura rentable son esenciales para que las tecnologías sean accesibles y asequibles para los agricultores y para garantizar que las brechas de rendimiento se puedan reducir y que los objetivos de sostenibilidad se cumplan a nivel de granja. Sustainable intensification has been proposed as a pathway to achieve food security and reduce environmental impacts of agriculture by focusing on narrowing yield gaps on existing agricultural land while improving resource use efficiencies. There is a general consensus that regions with large yield gaps can benefit most from sustainable intensification but it remains unclear how sustainable this is for farmers given their current resource constraints and livelihood strategies. Here, we draw upon three contrasting case studies, for which detailed data at field and farm levels were available for yield gap decomposition, to assess how sustainable intensification of crops (at field level) works out at farm level using environmental and socio-economic indicators. Although there is large potential for future intensification (more output with more input) of cereal production in southern Ethiopia, current input use in these farming systems is not economically and environmentally sustainable at farm level. The same is true for rice production in Central Luzon where sustainable intensification (more output with less input) can help to narrow yield gaps and improve N use efficiency (NUE) but it is not profitable due to the heavy reliance on costly hired labour. Trade-offs between yield gap closure and labour productivity were also observed in the aforementioned farming systems. Arable farms in the Netherlands exhibit small yield gaps as well as higher economic performance, NUE and N surplus compared to those observed in Southern Ethiopia and Central Luzon. For improving environmental sustainability, these farms require increases in resource-use efficiency and a reduction of the environmental impacts through a lower use of inputs (same output with less input). We conclude that public investments conducive for innovation and profitable farming are essential to make technologies accessible and affordable for farmers and to ensure that yield gaps can be narrowed and sustainability objectives served at the farm level. تم اقتراح التكثيف المستدام كمسار لتحقيق الأمن الغذائي والحد من الآثار البيئية للزراعة من خلال التركيز على تضييق فجوات الغلة على الأراضي الزراعية الحالية مع تحسين كفاءة استخدام الموارد. هناك إجماع عام على أن المناطق التي تعاني من فجوات كبيرة في المحاصيل يمكن أن تستفيد أكثر من التكثيف المستدام ولكن لا يزال من غير الواضح مدى استدامة ذلك بالنسبة للمزارعين نظرًا لقيود الموارد الحالية واستراتيجيات سبل العيش. هنا، نعتمد على ثلاث دراسات حالة متناقضة، حيث كانت البيانات التفصيلية على مستوى الحقل والمزرعة متاحة لتحليل فجوة الغلة، لتقييم كيفية عمل التكثيف المستدام للمحاصيل (على مستوى الحقل) على مستوى المزرعة باستخدام المؤشرات البيئية والاجتماعية والاقتصادية. على الرغم من وجود إمكانات كبيرة للتكثيف المستقبلي (المزيد من الإنتاج مع المزيد من المدخلات) لإنتاج الحبوب في جنوب إثيوبيا، فإن الاستخدام الحالي للمدخلات في هذه النظم الزراعية ليس مستدامًا اقتصاديًا وبيئيًا على مستوى المزرعة. وينطبق الشيء نفسه على إنتاج الأرز في وسط لوزون حيث يمكن أن يساعد التكثيف المستدام (المزيد من المخرجات مع مدخلات أقل) في تضييق فجوات الغلة وتحسين كفاءة الاستخدام (NUE) ولكنه ليس مربحًا بسبب الاعتماد الكبير على العمالة المستأجرة المكلفة. كما لوحظت مفاضلات بين إغلاق فجوة العائد وإنتاجية العمل في النظم الزراعية المذكورة أعلاه. تُظهر المزارع الصالحة للزراعة في هولندا فجوات صغيرة في الغلة بالإضافة إلى أداء اقتصادي أعلى وفائض NUE و N مقارنة بتلك التي لوحظت في جنوب إثيوبيا ووسط لوزون. ولتحسين الاستدامة البيئية، تتطلب هذه المزارع زيادات في كفاءة استخدام الموارد وتقليل الآثار البيئية من خلال استخدام أقل للمدخلات (نفس المخرجات مع مدخلات أقل). نستنتج أن الاستثمارات العامة التي تفضي إلى الابتكار والزراعة المربحة ضرورية لجعل التقنيات في متناول المزارعين وبأسعار معقولة ولضمان تضييق فجوات الغلة وتحقيق أهداف الاستدامة على مستوى المزرعة.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Global Food Securityarrow_drop_down
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    Global Food Security
    Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Global Food Security
    Article
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    Authors: Daoru Liu; Zhigang Ren; Shen Wei; Zhe Song; +2 Authors

    In this paper, onsite measurements and a subjective questionnaire were conducted to study the thermal environment and heating condition of bedrooms during the winter in rural areas in China’s hot summer and cold winter (HSCW) region. Indoor and outdoor thermal environmental parameters were measured to evaluate the thermal conditions of bedrooms. Thermal sensation/tendency/acceptance, heating, and health condition were investigated to complete the analysis of attitudes of local residents on the thermal environment of bedrooms, heating and health issues, as well as the analysis of buildings. The observed results demonstrate that occupants in this region have a strong tolerance to low-temperature environments with the 80% acceptable lower temperature of 4.7 °C and a neutral temperature of 10.7 °C, with an average clothing insulation over 2.2 clo. Oversized volume and acreage of buildings and windows induce a lower temperature in the bedroom. Infants have a significant effect on heating requirements, including heating duration and temperature setpoint. Local residents are highly concerned about the costs, safety, and health related to heating and thermal environments. All evidence obtained through this investigation shows that it is beneficial to formulate regulations for the shape, envelope, and centralized heating policy for rural residential buildings in the HSCW region.

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    Authors: Gareth Simpson; Graham Jewitt; Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi; Jessica Badenhorst;

    Abstract There is a need to address resource security and distributional justice in developing countries. People need water, energy, and food to sustain their livelihoods and to achieve sustainable development. The interactions between these resource sectors form the crux of water-energy-food (WEF) nexus assessments. In this study, we have utilised the WEF Nexus Index to analyse 54 African nations for whom sufficient data was available in 2019. The results for several countries were analysed to illustrate the opportunities and constraints for future development. The analysis demonstrates that, for many African countries, policies that undergird investments in energy supply projects are needed to unlock available freshwater resources to meet their food requirements. Such projects can be utilised to enhance the ability of farmers to manage water through drought-proofing rainfed agriculture, an increase in irrigation development, or both. WEF nexus-based studies, policies, and projects must be focussed on the direct and indirect achievement of SDGs 1, 2, 6, 7, and 13, both in terms of access and availability, to ensure distributional justice, especially in the African context. Such actions, combined with broad public participation, can have a ripple effect on other SDGs such as SDGs 5, 10, and 17, thereby reducing inequalities and building partnerships to attain these aspirational goals. The assessment of Africa’s relatively low scores in terms of the WEF Nexus Index does not represent a negative narrative. Instead, it provides an entry point to understanding the underlying challenges, through which more detailed analyses can lead to identified solutions and policies. Many African countries are trapped in an environment that could be termed a ‘poverty-unemployment-inequality nexus’ (due to the interlinkages that exist between these ‘wicked’ problems). The WEF Nexus Index provides high-level insights into these opportunities.

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    https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
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    Authors: Anand Roopsind; T. Trevor Caughlin; Peter van der Hout; Eric Arets; +1 Authors

    AbstractForest degradation accounts for ~70% of total carbon losses from tropical forests. Substantial emissions are from selective logging, a land‐use activity that decreases forest carbon density. To maintain carbon values in selectively logged forests, climate change mitigation policies and government agencies promote the adoption of reduced‐impact logging (RIL) practices. However, whetherRILwill maintain both carbon and timber values in managed tropical forests over time remains uncertain. In this study, we quantify the recovery of timber stocks and aboveground carbon at an experimental site where forests were subjected to different intensities ofRIL(4, 8, and 16 trees/ha). Our census data span 20 years postlogging and 17 years after the liberation of future crop trees from competition in a tropical forest on the Guiana Shield, a globally important forest carbon reservoir. We model recovery of timber and carbon with a breakpoint regression that allowed us to capture elevated tree mortality immediately after logging. Recovery rates of timber and carbon were governed by the presence of residual trees (i.e., trees that persisted through the first harvest). The liberation treatment stimulated faster recovery of timber albeit at a carbon cost. Model results suggest a threshold logging intensity beyond which forests managed for timber and carbon derive few benefits fromRIL, with recruitment and residual growth not sufficient to offset losses. Inclusion of the breakpoint at which carbon and timber gains outpaced postlogging mortality led to high predictive accuracy, including out‐of‐sampleR2values >90%, and enabled inference on demographic changes postlogging. Our modeling framework is broadly applicable to studies that aim to quantify impacts of logging on forest recovery. Overall, we demonstrate that initial mortality drives variation in recovery rates, that the second harvest depends on old growth wood, and that timber intensification lowers carbon stocks.

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    Global Change Biology
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    Global Change Biology
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: William Zappa; Martin Junginger; Machteld van den Broek;

    In this study, we model seven scenarios for the European power system in 2050 based on 100% renewable energy sources, assuming different levels of future demand and technology availability, and compare them with a scenario which includes low-carbon non-renewable technologies. We find that a 100% renewable European power system could operate with the same level of system adequacy as today when relying on European resources alone, even in the most challenging weather year observed in the period from 1979 to 2015. However, based on our scenario results, realising such a system by 2050 would require: (i) a 90% increase in generation capacity to at least 1.9 TW (compared with 1 TW installed today), (ii) reliable cross-border transmission capacity at least 140 GW higher than current levels (60 GW), (iii) the well-managed integration of heat pumps and electric vehicles into the power system to reduce demand peaks and biogas requirements, (iv) the implementation of energy efficiency measures to avoid even larger increases in required biomass demand, generation and transmission capacity, (v) wind deployment levels of 7.5 GW y−1 (currently 10.6 GW y−1) to be maintained, while solar photovoltaic deployment to increase to at least 15 GW y−1 (currently 10.5 GW y−1), (vi) large-scale mobilisation of Europe's biomass resources, with power sector biomass consumption reaching at least 8.5 EJ in the most challenging year (compared with 1.9 EJ today), and (vii) increasing solid biomass and biogas capacity deployment to at least 4 GW y−1 and 6 GW y−1 respectively. We find that even when wind and solar photovoltaic capacity is installed in optimum locations, the total cost of a 100% renewable power system (∼530 €bn y−1) would be approximately 30% higher than a power system which includes other low-carbon technologies such as nuclear, or carbon capture and storage (∼410 €bn y−1). Furthermore, a 100% renewable system may not deliver the level of emission reductions necessary to achieve Europe's climate goals by 2050, as negative emissions from biomass with carbon capture and storage may still be required to offset an increase in indirect emissions, or to realise more ambitious decarbonisation pathways.

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    Applied Energy
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Mart-Jan Schelhaas; Rupert Seidl; Pieter Johannes Verkerk; Werner Rammer;

    Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throughout the 20th century 1. Climatic changes were identified as a main driver behind this increase 2, yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe's forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget 3,4, and are hypothesized to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe's forests 5. Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21st century. Based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios we find that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades, and estimate the rate of increase to +0.91·106 m3 of timber per year until 2030. We show that this intensification can offset the effect of management strategies aiming to increase the forest carbon sink, and calculate the disturbance-related reduction of the carbon storage potential in Europe's forests to be 503.4 Tg C in 2021-2030. Our results highlight the considerable carbon cycle feedbacks of changing disturbance regimes, and underline that future forest policy and management will require a stronger focus on disturbance risk and resilience.

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    Nature Climate Change
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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      Nature Climate Change
      Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Lesschen, J.P.; Elbersen, H.W.; Poppens, R.; Galytska, M.; +2 Authors

    Biomass production has both direct effects and indirect effects. Direct effects such as the energy balance and GHG balance can be directly measured, to make sure that impacts are (significantly) below the fossil fuel comparator. In recent years it has also been recognized that the production and use of biomass for energy has indirect effects which are caused by competition for inputs and land. The most important indirect effect is ILUC (indirect land use change) and the associated GHG emissions, which have been quantified in different studies. Avoiding ILUC is now becoming important. An important option is the use of land that would otherwise not be used for food or feed production. This generally means that lower quality or marginal land will be used. Switchgrass is one of the main perennial biomass crops that can produce high biomass yields under low input conditions and which can be established at low cost by seeds. In Ukraine this crop has in recent years been tested, yielding information that can be used to assess the cost and GHG balance of growing the crop, pelletizing, transport to the Netherlands and conversion into electricity. Results show that GHG emissions on low quality soil without ILUC (12.5 g CO2 MJ-1 pellet) are higher than for good quality soil grown switchgrass with ILUC (0.1 g CO2 MJ-1 pellet). Analysis of the costs of growing switchgrass on low productive soils are 22% higher compared to high quality soils. We conclude that ILUC avoidance needs to be quantified and rewarded. Proceedings of the 20th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, 18-22 June 2012, Milan, Italy, pp. 1988-1991

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    https://dx.doi.org/10.5071/20t...
    Conference object . 2012
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      Conference object . 2012
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    Authors: Philippidis, George; Bartelings, Heleen; Helming, John; M'Barek, Robert; +2 Authors

    As the EU is moving towards a low carbon economy and seeks to further develop its renewable energy policy, this paper quantitatively investigates the impact of plausible energy market reforms from the perspective of bio-renewables. Employing a state-of-the-art biobased variant of a computable general equilibrium model, this study assesses the perceived medium-term benefits, risks and trade-offs which arise from an advanced biofuels plan, two exploratory scenarios of a more ‘sustainable’ conventional biofuels plan and a ‘no-mandate’ scenario. Consistent with more recent studies, none of the scenarios considered present significant challenges to EU food-security or agricultural land usage. An illustrative advanced biofuels plan simulation requires non-trivial public support to implement whilst a degree of competition for biomass with (high-value) advanced biomass material industries is observed. On the other hand, it significantly alleviates land use pressures, whilst lignocellulose biomass prices are not expected to increase to unsustainable levels. Clearly, these observations are subject to assumptions on technological change, sustainable biomass limits, expected trends in fossil fuel prices and EU access to third-country trade. With these same caveats in mind, the switch to increased bioethanol production does not result in significant market tensions in biomass markets.

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    Energies
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Energies
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    https://doi.org/10.20944/prepr...
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    https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073...
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    Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Energies
    Article . 2018
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    Wageningen Staff Publications
    Article . 2018
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      Energies
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      Energies
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      https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073...
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      Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
      Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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      Energies
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      Wageningen Staff Publications
      Article . 2018
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    Abstract‘Environmental non-migration’ refers to the spatial continuity of an individual’s residence at the same place despite environmental risk. Moreover, this is a largely under-researched topic, especially within the climate change adaptation discourse, but is increasingly coming to the attention of scientists and policymakers for sustainable adaptation planning. So far, there exists hardly any conceptual and methodical guidelines to study environmental non-migration. Considering this research gap, this paper explores environmental non-migration based on the notion that factors of livelihood resilience can partly explain the decision to non-migration. Here, livelihood resilience is seen as an outcome of the interactions between societal and environmental conditions of an individual household. These conditions inform the decisions (to stay or to migrate) taken in case of a hazard or creeping environmental change. Their influence generalises the spectrum of migration decision-making (to stay or to migrate), which is conceptualised by four broad outcomes categorised into voluntary and involuntary, and non-migrants and migrants. This analytical concept is operationalised through an empirical example in southwest coastal Bangladesh. The results suggest that the Livelihood Resilience Index (LRI) relates to the voluntary nature of migration decisions once they are made. Still, only a household’s resilience cannot predict the decisions the household makes to stay or migrate. The paper concludes that the proposed analytical concept, with its exemplary factors, maybe an initial means to holistically explore migration decisions in the context of natural hazards and climate and environmental change. However, environmental non-migration remains complex and multi-faceted, and its assessment requires deeper examination at various scales.

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    Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    ZENODO
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      Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
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      ZENODO
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    Authors: Alma Mendoza‐Ponce; Rogelio O. Corona‐Núñez; Luzma Fabiola Nava; Francisco Estrada; +6 Authors

    Le changement d'utilisation des terres/de couverture est la principale cause de dégradation des écosystèmes terrestres. Cependant, ses impacts seront exacerbés en raison du changement climatique et de la croissance démographique, entraînant une expansion agricole en raison de la demande accrue de denrées alimentaires et de la baisse des rendements agricoles dans certaines zones tropicales. Les stratégies internationales visant à atténuer les impacts du changement climatique et du changement du couvert terrestre sont difficiles dans les régions en développement. Cette étude vise à évaluer des alternatives pour minimiser les impacts de ces menaces dans le cadre de trajectoires socio-économiques, dans l'une des régions les plus biologiquement riches du Guatemala et du Mexique. Cette étude est située dans le bassin versant d'Usumacinta, une région transfrontalière qui partage une histoire commune, avec des propriétés biophysiques et des contraintes économiques similaires qui ont conduit à d'importants changements dans l'utilisation/la couverture des terres. Pour comprendre les impacts sur la déforestation et les émissions de carbone des différentes pratiques de gestion des terres, nous avons développé trois scénarios (1) : le statu quo (BAU), (2) un scénario de réduction des émissions visant à réduire la déforestation et la dégradation (REDD+) et (3) zéro déforestation à partir de 2030 sur la base des engagements internationaux. Nos résultats suggèrent que d'ici 2050, la couverture terrestre naturelle pourrait réduire de 22,3 et 12,2% son étendue dans les scénarios BAU et REDD +, respectivement par rapport à 2012. Cependant, le scénario zéro déforestation montre que d'ici 2050, il serait possible d'éviter de perdre 22,4 % du bassin versant boisé (1,7 million d'hectares) et d'en récupérer 5,9 % (0,4 million d'hectares). En termes de séquestration du carbone, les projets REDD + peuvent réduire les pertes de carbone dans la végétation naturelle, mais une politique de zéro déforestation peut doubler la séquestration du carbone produite par les projets REDD + uniquement. Cette étude montre que pour réduire les pressions sur les écosystèmes, en particulier dans les régions fortement marginalisées avec des migrations importantes, il est nécessaire de mettre en œuvre des politiques transfrontalières de gestion des terres qui intègrent également des stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté. El cambio en el uso/cobertura de la tierra es la principal causa de la degradación de los ecosistemas terrestres. Sin embargo, sus impactos se exacerbarán debido al cambio climático y al crecimiento de la población, impulsando la expansión agrícola debido a una mayor demanda de alimentos y menores rendimientos agrícolas en algunas áreas tropicales. Las estrategias internacionales destinadas a mitigar los impactos del cambio climático y el cambio en la cobertura del uso de la tierra son un desafío en las regiones en desarrollo. Este estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar alternativas para minimizar los impactos de estas amenazas bajo trayectorias socioeconómicas, en una de las regiones biológicamente más ricas de Guatemala y México. Este estudio se encuentra en la cuenca de Usumacinta, una región transfronteriza que comparte una historia común, con propiedades biofísicas y limitaciones económicas similares que han llevado a grandes cambios en el uso/cobertura de la tierra. Para comprender los impactos en la deforestación y las emisiones de carbono de las diferentes prácticas de gestión de la tierra, desarrollamos tres escenarios (1): negocios como siempre (BAU), (2) un escenario de reducción de emisiones destinado a reducir la deforestación y la degradación (REDD+) y (3) cero deforestación a partir de 2030 en función de los compromisos internacionales. Nuestros resultados sugieren que para 2050, la cobertura natural de la tierra podría reducir el 22.3 y el 12.2% de su extensión bajo los escenarios BAU y REDD +, respectivamente, en comparación con 2012. Sin embargo, el escenario de deforestación cero muestra que para 2050, sería posible evitar la pérdida del 22,4% de la cuenca forestal (1,7 millones de ha) y recuperar el 5,9% (0,4 millones de hectáreas) de la misma. En términos de secuestro de carbono, los proyectos REDD + pueden reducir las pérdidas de carbono en la vegetación natural, pero una política de deforestación cero puede duplicar el secuestro de carbono producido solo por los proyectos REDD +. Este estudio muestra que para reducir las presiones sobre los ecosistemas, particularmente en regiones altamente marginadas con una migración significativa, es necesario implementar políticas transfronterizas de gestión de la tierra que también integren estrategias de alivio de la pobreza. Land-use/cover change is the major cause of terrestrial ecosystem degradation. However, its impacts will be exacerbated due to climate change and population growth, driving agricultural expansion because of higher demand of food and lower agricultural yields in some tropical areas. International strategies aimed to mitigate impacts of climate change and land use-cover change are challenging in developing regions. This study aims to evaluate alternatives to minimize the impacts of these threats under socioeconomic trajectories, in one of the biologically richest regions in Guatemala and Mexico. This study is located at the Usumacinta watershed, a transboundary region that shares a common history, with similar biophysical properties and economic constraints which have led to large land use/cover changes. To understand the impacts on deforestation and carbon emissions of different land-management practices, we developed three scenarios (1): business as usual (BAU), (2) a reducing emissions scenario aimed to reduce deforestation and degradation (REDD+), and (3) zero-deforestation from 2030 onwards based on the international commitments. Our results suggest that by 2050, natural land cover might reduce 22.3 and 12.2% of its extent under the BAU and REDD + scenarios, respectively in comparison with 2012. However, the zero-deforestation scenario shows that by 2050, it would be possible to avoid losing 22.4% of the forested watershed (1.7 million ha) and recover 5.9% (0.4 million hectares) of it. In terms of carbon sequestration, REDD + projects can reduce the carbon losses in natural vegetation, but a zero-deforestation policy can double the carbon sequestration produced by REDD + projects only. This study shows that to reduce the pressures on ecosystems, particularly in regions highly marginalized with significant migration, it is necessary to implement transboundary land-management policies that also integrate poverty alleviation strategies. استخدام الأراضي/تغيير الغطاء هو السبب الرئيسي لتدهور النظام الإيكولوجي الأرضي. ومع ذلك، ستتفاقم آثاره بسبب تغير المناخ والنمو السكاني، مما يؤدي إلى التوسع الزراعي بسبب ارتفاع الطلب على الغذاء وانخفاض الغلة الزراعية في بعض المناطق الاستوائية. تشكل الاستراتيجيات الدولية الرامية إلى التخفيف من آثار تغير المناخ وتغير استخدام الأراضي تحدياً في المناطق النامية. تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تقييم البدائل لتقليل آثار هذه التهديدات في إطار المسارات الاجتماعية والاقتصادية، في واحدة من أغنى المناطق بيولوجيًا في غواتيمالا والمكسيك. تقع هذه الدراسة في مستجمع مياه أوسوماسينتا، وهي منطقة عابرة للحدود تشترك في تاريخ مشترك، مع خصائص فيزيائية حيوية مماثلة وقيود اقتصادية أدت إلى تغييرات كبيرة في استخدام الأراضي/تغطيتها. لفهم تأثيرات ممارسات إدارة الأراضي المختلفة على إزالة الغابات وانبعاثات الكربون، وضعنا ثلاثة سيناريوهات (1): العمل كالمعتاد (BAU)، (2) سيناريو خفض الانبعاثات الذي يهدف إلى الحد من إزالة الغابات وتدهورها (REDD+)، و (3) إزالة الغابات الصفرية اعتبارًا من عام 2030 فصاعدًا بناءً على الالتزامات الدولية. تشير نتائجنا إلى أنه بحلول عام 2050، قد يقلل الغطاء الأرضي الطبيعي بنسبة 22.3 و 12.2 ٪ من مداه في إطار سيناريو العمل الاعتيادي وسيناريو خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية، على التوالي مقارنة بعام 2012. ومع ذلك، يُظهر سيناريو إزالة الغابات الصفرية أنه بحلول عام 2050، سيكون من الممكن تجنب فقدان 22.4 ٪ من مستجمعات المياه الحرجية (1.7 مليون هكتار) واستعادة 5.9 ٪ (0.4 مليون هكتار) منها. من حيث عزل الكربون، يمكن لمشاريع خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية أن تقلل من خسائر الكربون في الغطاء النباتي الطبيعي، ولكن سياسة إزالة الغابات الصفرية يمكن أن تضاعف عزل الكربون الناتج عن مشاريع خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية فقط. تُظهر هذه الدراسة أنه للحد من الضغوط على النظم الإيكولوجية، لا سيما في المناطق المهمشة للغاية مع الهجرة الكبيرة، من الضروري تنفيذ سياسات إدارة الأراضي العابرة للحدود التي تدمج أيضًا استراتيجيات التخفيف من حدة الفقر.

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    Authors: Ken E. Giller; Frédéric Baudron; Pytrik Reidsma; João Vasco Silva; +3 Authors

    L'intensification durable a été proposée comme moyen d'atteindre la sécurité alimentaire et de réduire les impacts environnementaux de l'agriculture en se concentrant sur la réduction des écarts de rendement sur les terres agricoles existantes tout en améliorant l'efficacité de l'utilisation des ressources. Il existe un consensus général sur le fait que les régions présentant de grands écarts de rendement peuvent bénéficier le plus d'une intensification durable, mais il n'est pas clair dans quelle mesure cela est durable pour les agriculteurs compte tenu de leurs contraintes actuelles en matière de ressources et de leurs stratégies de subsistance. Ici, nous nous appuyons sur trois études de cas contrastées, pour lesquelles des données détaillées au niveau des champs et des exploitations étaient disponibles pour la décomposition des écarts de rendement, afin d'évaluer le fonctionnement de l'intensification durable des cultures (au niveau des champs) au niveau des exploitations à l'aide d'indicateurs environnementaux et socio-économiques. Bien qu'il existe un grand potentiel d'intensification future (plus de production avec plus d'intrants) de la production céréalière dans le sud de l'Éthiopie, l'utilisation actuelle des intrants dans ces systèmes agricoles n'est pas durable sur les plans économique et environnemental au niveau des exploitations. Il en va de même pour la production de riz dans le centre de Luçon, où une intensification durable (plus de production avec moins d'intrants) peut aider à réduire les écarts de rendement et à améliorer l'efficacité de l'utilisation de l'azote (nue), mais elle n'est pas rentable en raison de la forte dépendance à une main-d' œuvre embauchée coûteuse. Des compromis entre la réduction de l'écart de rendement et la productivité du travail ont également été observés dans les systèmes agricoles susmentionnés. Les fermes arables aux Pays-Bas présentent de faibles écarts de rendement ainsi que des performances économiques, des nue et des excédents d'azote plus élevés que ceux observés dans le sud de l'Éthiopie et le centre de Luçon. Pour améliorer la durabilité environnementale, ces exploitations nécessitent des augmentations de l'efficacité de l'utilisation des ressources et une réduction des impacts environnementaux grâce à une utilisation moindre des intrants (même production avec moins d'intrants). Nous concluons que les investissements publics propices à l'innovation et à une agriculture rentable sont essentiels pour rendre les technologies accessibles et abordables pour les agriculteurs et pour veiller à ce que les écarts de rendement puissent être réduits et que les objectifs de durabilité soient atteints au niveau des exploitations. La intensificación sostenible se ha propuesto como una vía para lograr la seguridad alimentaria y reducir los impactos ambientales de la agricultura, centrándose en reducir las brechas de rendimiento en las tierras agrícolas existentes al tiempo que se mejora la eficiencia en el uso de los recursos. Existe un consenso general de que las regiones con grandes brechas de rendimiento pueden beneficiarse más de la intensificación sostenible, pero no está claro qué tan sostenible es esto para los agricultores dadas sus actuales limitaciones de recursos y estrategias de medios de vida. Aquí, nos basamos en tres estudios de casos contrastantes, para los cuales se disponía de datos detallados a nivel de campo y granja para la descomposición de la brecha de rendimiento, para evaluar cómo funciona la intensificación sostenible de los cultivos (a nivel de campo) a nivel de granja utilizando indicadores ambientales y socioeconómicos. Aunque existe un gran potencial para la intensificación futura (más producción con más insumos) de la producción de cereales en el sur de Etiopía, el uso actual de insumos en estos sistemas agrícolas no es económica y ambientalmente sostenible a nivel de granja. Lo mismo ocurre con la producción de arroz en Luzón Central, donde la intensificación sostenible (más producción con menos insumos) puede ayudar a reducir las brechas de rendimiento y mejorar la eficiencia del uso del N (nue), pero no es rentable debido a la gran dependencia de la costosa mano de obra contratada. También se observaron compensaciones entre el cierre de la brecha de rendimiento y la productividad laboral en los sistemas agrícolas mencionados anteriormente. Las granjas cultivables en los Países Bajos exhiben pequeñas brechas de rendimiento, así como un mayor rendimiento económico, superávit de nue y N en comparación con las observadas en el sur de Etiopía y el centro de Luzón. Para mejorar la sostenibilidad ambiental, estas granjas requieren aumentos en la eficiencia del uso de los recursos y una reducción de los impactos ambientales a través de un menor uso de insumos (mismo producto con menos insumos). Concluimos que las inversiones públicas propicias para la innovación y la agricultura rentable son esenciales para que las tecnologías sean accesibles y asequibles para los agricultores y para garantizar que las brechas de rendimiento se puedan reducir y que los objetivos de sostenibilidad se cumplan a nivel de granja. Sustainable intensification has been proposed as a pathway to achieve food security and reduce environmental impacts of agriculture by focusing on narrowing yield gaps on existing agricultural land while improving resource use efficiencies. There is a general consensus that regions with large yield gaps can benefit most from sustainable intensification but it remains unclear how sustainable this is for farmers given their current resource constraints and livelihood strategies. Here, we draw upon three contrasting case studies, for which detailed data at field and farm levels were available for yield gap decomposition, to assess how sustainable intensification of crops (at field level) works out at farm level using environmental and socio-economic indicators. Although there is large potential for future intensification (more output with more input) of cereal production in southern Ethiopia, current input use in these farming systems is not economically and environmentally sustainable at farm level. The same is true for rice production in Central Luzon where sustainable intensification (more output with less input) can help to narrow yield gaps and improve N use efficiency (NUE) but it is not profitable due to the heavy reliance on costly hired labour. Trade-offs between yield gap closure and labour productivity were also observed in the aforementioned farming systems. Arable farms in the Netherlands exhibit small yield gaps as well as higher economic performance, NUE and N surplus compared to those observed in Southern Ethiopia and Central Luzon. For improving environmental sustainability, these farms require increases in resource-use efficiency and a reduction of the environmental impacts through a lower use of inputs (same output with less input). We conclude that public investments conducive for innovation and profitable farming are essential to make technologies accessible and affordable for farmers and to ensure that yield gaps can be narrowed and sustainability objectives served at the farm level. تم اقتراح التكثيف المستدام كمسار لتحقيق الأمن الغذائي والحد من الآثار البيئية للزراعة من خلال التركيز على تضييق فجوات الغلة على الأراضي الزراعية الحالية مع تحسين كفاءة استخدام الموارد. هناك إجماع عام على أن المناطق التي تعاني من فجوات كبيرة في المحاصيل يمكن أن تستفيد أكثر من التكثيف المستدام ولكن لا يزال من غير الواضح مدى استدامة ذلك بالنسبة للمزارعين نظرًا لقيود الموارد الحالية واستراتيجيات سبل العيش. هنا، نعتمد على ثلاث دراسات حالة متناقضة، حيث كانت البيانات التفصيلية على مستوى الحقل والمزرعة متاحة لتحليل فجوة الغلة، لتقييم كيفية عمل التكثيف المستدام للمحاصيل (على مستوى الحقل) على مستوى المزرعة باستخدام المؤشرات البيئية والاجتماعية والاقتصادية. على الرغم من وجود إمكانات كبيرة للتكثيف المستقبلي (المزيد من الإنتاج مع المزيد من المدخلات) لإنتاج الحبوب في جنوب إثيوبيا، فإن الاستخدام الحالي للمدخلات في هذه النظم الزراعية ليس مستدامًا اقتصاديًا وبيئيًا على مستوى المزرعة. وينطبق الشيء نفسه على إنتاج الأرز في وسط لوزون حيث يمكن أن يساعد التكثيف المستدام (المزيد من المخرجات مع مدخلات أقل) في تضييق فجوات الغلة وتحسين كفاءة الاستخدام (NUE) ولكنه ليس مربحًا بسبب الاعتماد الكبير على العمالة المستأجرة المكلفة. كما لوحظت مفاضلات بين إغلاق فجوة العائد وإنتاجية العمل في النظم الزراعية المذكورة أعلاه. تُظهر المزارع الصالحة للزراعة في هولندا فجوات صغيرة في الغلة بالإضافة إلى أداء اقتصادي أعلى وفائض NUE و N مقارنة بتلك التي لوحظت في جنوب إثيوبيا ووسط لوزون. ولتحسين الاستدامة البيئية، تتطلب هذه المزارع زيادات في كفاءة استخدام الموارد وتقليل الآثار البيئية من خلال استخدام أقل للمدخلات (نفس المخرجات مع مدخلات أقل). نستنتج أن الاستثمارات العامة التي تفضي إلى الابتكار والزراعة المربحة ضرورية لجعل التقنيات في متناول المزارعين وبأسعار معقولة ولضمان تضييق فجوات الغلة وتحقيق أهداف الاستدامة على مستوى المزرعة.

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    Global Food Security
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      Global Food Security
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    Authors: Daoru Liu; Zhigang Ren; Shen Wei; Zhe Song; +2 Authors

    In this paper, onsite measurements and a subjective questionnaire were conducted to study the thermal environment and heating condition of bedrooms during the winter in rural areas in China’s hot summer and cold winter (HSCW) region. Indoor and outdoor thermal environmental parameters were measured to evaluate the thermal conditions of bedrooms. Thermal sensation/tendency/acceptance, heating, and health condition were investigated to complete the analysis of attitudes of local residents on the thermal environment of bedrooms, heating and health issues, as well as the analysis of buildings. The observed results demonstrate that occupants in this region have a strong tolerance to low-temperature environments with the 80% acceptable lower temperature of 4.7 °C and a neutral temperature of 10.7 °C, with an average clothing insulation over 2.2 clo. Oversized volume and acreage of buildings and windows induce a lower temperature in the bedroom. Infants have a significant effect on heating requirements, including heating duration and temperature setpoint. Local residents are highly concerned about the costs, safety, and health related to heating and thermal environments. All evidence obtained through this investigation shows that it is beneficial to formulate regulations for the shape, envelope, and centralized heating policy for rural residential buildings in the HSCW region.

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    Sustainability
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    Authors: Gareth Simpson; Graham Jewitt; Tafadzwanashe Mabhaudhi; Jessica Badenhorst;

    Abstract There is a need to address resource security and distributional justice in developing countries. People need water, energy, and food to sustain their livelihoods and to achieve sustainable development. The interactions between these resource sectors form the crux of water-energy-food (WEF) nexus assessments. In this study, we have utilised the WEF Nexus Index to analyse 54 African nations for whom sufficient data was available in 2019. The results for several countries were analysed to illustrate the opportunities and constraints for future development. The analysis demonstrates that, for many African countries, policies that undergird investments in energy supply projects are needed to unlock available freshwater resources to meet their food requirements. Such projects can be utilised to enhance the ability of farmers to manage water through drought-proofing rainfed agriculture, an increase in irrigation development, or both. WEF nexus-based studies, policies, and projects must be focussed on the direct and indirect achievement of SDGs 1, 2, 6, 7, and 13, both in terms of access and availability, to ensure distributional justice, especially in the African context. Such actions, combined with broad public participation, can have a ripple effect on other SDGs such as SDGs 5, 10, and 17, thereby reducing inequalities and building partnerships to attain these aspirational goals. The assessment of Africa’s relatively low scores in terms of the WEF Nexus Index does not represent a negative narrative. Instead, it provides an entry point to understanding the underlying challenges, through which more detailed analyses can lead to identified solutions and policies. Many African countries are trapped in an environment that could be termed a ‘poverty-unemployment-inequality nexus’ (due to the interlinkages that exist between these ‘wicked’ problems). The WEF Nexus Index provides high-level insights into these opportunities.

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    https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
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    Authors: Anand Roopsind; T. Trevor Caughlin; Peter van der Hout; Eric Arets; +1 Authors

    AbstractForest degradation accounts for ~70% of total carbon losses from tropical forests. Substantial emissions are from selective logging, a land‐use activity that decreases forest carbon density. To maintain carbon values in selectively logged forests, climate change mitigation policies and government agencies promote the adoption of reduced‐impact logging (RIL) practices. However, whetherRILwill maintain both carbon and timber values in managed tropical forests over time remains uncertain. In this study, we quantify the recovery of timber stocks and aboveground carbon at an experimental site where forests were subjected to different intensities ofRIL(4, 8, and 16 trees/ha). Our census data span 20 years postlogging and 17 years after the liberation of future crop trees from competition in a tropical forest on the Guiana Shield, a globally important forest carbon reservoir. We model recovery of timber and carbon with a breakpoint regression that allowed us to capture elevated tree mortality immediately after logging. Recovery rates of timber and carbon were governed by the presence of residual trees (i.e., trees that persisted through the first harvest). The liberation treatment stimulated faster recovery of timber albeit at a carbon cost. Model results suggest a threshold logging intensity beyond which forests managed for timber and carbon derive few benefits fromRIL, with recruitment and residual growth not sufficient to offset losses. Inclusion of the breakpoint at which carbon and timber gains outpaced postlogging mortality led to high predictive accuracy, including out‐of‐sampleR2values >90%, and enabled inference on demographic changes postlogging. Our modeling framework is broadly applicable to studies that aim to quantify impacts of logging on forest recovery. Overall, we demonstrate that initial mortality drives variation in recovery rates, that the second harvest depends on old growth wood, and that timber intensification lowers carbon stocks.

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    Global Change Biology
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    Global Change Biology
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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      Global Change Biology
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    Authors: William Zappa; Martin Junginger; Machteld van den Broek;

    In this study, we model seven scenarios for the European power system in 2050 based on 100% renewable energy sources, assuming different levels of future demand and technology availability, and compare them with a scenario which includes low-carbon non-renewable technologies. We find that a 100% renewable European power system could operate with the same level of system adequacy as today when relying on European resources alone, even in the most challenging weather year observed in the period from 1979 to 2015. However, based on our scenario results, realising such a system by 2050 would require: (i) a 90% increase in generation capacity to at least 1.9 TW (compared with 1 TW installed today), (ii) reliable cross-border transmission capacity at least 140 GW higher than current levels (60 GW), (iii) the well-managed integration of heat pumps and electric vehicles into the power system to reduce demand peaks and biogas requirements, (iv) the implementation of energy efficiency measures to avoid even larger increases in required biomass demand, generation and transmission capacity, (v) wind deployment levels of 7.5 GW y−1 (currently 10.6 GW y−1) to be maintained, while solar photovoltaic deployment to increase to at least 15 GW y−1 (currently 10.5 GW y−1), (vi) large-scale mobilisation of Europe's biomass resources, with power sector biomass consumption reaching at least 8.5 EJ in the most challenging year (compared with 1.9 EJ today), and (vii) increasing solid biomass and biogas capacity deployment to at least 4 GW y−1 and 6 GW y−1 respectively. We find that even when wind and solar photovoltaic capacity is installed in optimum locations, the total cost of a 100% renewable power system (∼530 €bn y−1) would be approximately 30% higher than a power system which includes other low-carbon technologies such as nuclear, or carbon capture and storage (∼410 €bn y−1). Furthermore, a 100% renewable system may not deliver the level of emission reductions necessary to achieve Europe's climate goals by 2050, as negative emissions from biomass with carbon capture and storage may still be required to offset an increase in indirect emissions, or to realise more ambitious decarbonisation pathways.

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    Applied Energy
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    Authors: Mart-Jan Schelhaas; Rupert Seidl; Pieter Johannes Verkerk; Werner Rammer;

    Disturbances from wind, bark beetles, and wildfires have increased in Europe's forests throughout the 20th century 1. Climatic changes were identified as a main driver behind this increase 2, yet how the expected continuation of climate change will affect Europe's forest disturbance regime remains unresolved. Increasing disturbances could strongly impact the forest carbon budget 3,4, and are hypothesized to contribute to the recently observed carbon sink saturation in Europe's forests 5. Here we show that forest disturbance damage in Europe has continued to increase in the first decade of the 21st century. Based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios we find that damage from wind, bark beetles, and forest fires is likely to increase further in coming decades, and estimate the rate of increase to +0.91·106 m3 of timber per year until 2030. We show that this intensification can offset the effect of management strategies aiming to increase the forest carbon sink, and calculate the disturbance-related reduction of the carbon storage potential in Europe's forests to be 503.4 Tg C in 2021-2030. Our results highlight the considerable carbon cycle feedbacks of changing disturbance regimes, and underline that future forest policy and management will require a stronger focus on disturbance risk and resilience.

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    Nature Climate Change
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      Nature Climate Change
      Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Lesschen, J.P.; Elbersen, H.W.; Poppens, R.; Galytska, M.; +2 Authors

    Biomass production has both direct effects and indirect effects. Direct effects such as the energy balance and GHG balance can be directly measured, to make sure that impacts are (significantly) below the fossil fuel comparator. In recent years it has also been recognized that the production and use of biomass for energy has indirect effects which are caused by competition for inputs and land. The most important indirect effect is ILUC (indirect land use change) and the associated GHG emissions, which have been quantified in different studies. Avoiding ILUC is now becoming important. An important option is the use of land that would otherwise not be used for food or feed production. This generally means that lower quality or marginal land will be used. Switchgrass is one of the main perennial biomass crops that can produce high biomass yields under low input conditions and which can be established at low cost by seeds. In Ukraine this crop has in recent years been tested, yielding information that can be used to assess the cost and GHG balance of growing the crop, pelletizing, transport to the Netherlands and conversion into electricity. Results show that GHG emissions on low quality soil without ILUC (12.5 g CO2 MJ-1 pellet) are higher than for good quality soil grown switchgrass with ILUC (0.1 g CO2 MJ-1 pellet). Analysis of the costs of growing switchgrass on low productive soils are 22% higher compared to high quality soils. We conclude that ILUC avoidance needs to be quantified and rewarded. Proceedings of the 20th European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, 18-22 June 2012, Milan, Italy, pp. 1988-1991

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    https://dx.doi.org/10.5071/20t...
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    Authors: Philippidis, George; Bartelings, Heleen; Helming, John; M'Barek, Robert; +2 Authors

    As the EU is moving towards a low carbon economy and seeks to further develop its renewable energy policy, this paper quantitatively investigates the impact of plausible energy market reforms from the perspective of bio-renewables. Employing a state-of-the-art biobased variant of a computable general equilibrium model, this study assesses the perceived medium-term benefits, risks and trade-offs which arise from an advanced biofuels plan, two exploratory scenarios of a more ‘sustainable’ conventional biofuels plan and a ‘no-mandate’ scenario. Consistent with more recent studies, none of the scenarios considered present significant challenges to EU food-security or agricultural land usage. An illustrative advanced biofuels plan simulation requires non-trivial public support to implement whilst a degree of competition for biomass with (high-value) advanced biomass material industries is observed. On the other hand, it significantly alleviates land use pressures, whilst lignocellulose biomass prices are not expected to increase to unsustainable levels. Clearly, these observations are subject to assumptions on technological change, sustainable biomass limits, expected trends in fossil fuel prices and EU access to third-country trade. With these same caveats in mind, the switch to increased bioethanol production does not result in significant market tensions in biomass markets.

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    Energies
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Energies
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    https://doi.org/10.20944/prepr...
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    https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073...
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    Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
    Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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    Energies
    Article . 2018
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    Wageningen Staff Publications
    Article . 2018
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      Energies
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      Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
      Article . 2018 . Peer-reviewed
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      Energies
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      Wageningen Staff Publications
      Article . 2018
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    Abstract‘Environmental non-migration’ refers to the spatial continuity of an individual’s residence at the same place despite environmental risk. Moreover, this is a largely under-researched topic, especially within the climate change adaptation discourse, but is increasingly coming to the attention of scientists and policymakers for sustainable adaptation planning. So far, there exists hardly any conceptual and methodical guidelines to study environmental non-migration. Considering this research gap, this paper explores environmental non-migration based on the notion that factors of livelihood resilience can partly explain the decision to non-migration. Here, livelihood resilience is seen as an outcome of the interactions between societal and environmental conditions of an individual household. These conditions inform the decisions (to stay or to migrate) taken in case of a hazard or creeping environmental change. Their influence generalises the spectrum of migration decision-making (to stay or to migrate), which is conceptualised by four broad outcomes categorised into voluntary and involuntary, and non-migrants and migrants. This analytical concept is operationalised through an empirical example in southwest coastal Bangladesh. The results suggest that the Livelihood Resilience Index (LRI) relates to the voluntary nature of migration decisions once they are made. Still, only a household’s resilience cannot predict the decisions the household makes to stay or migrate. The paper concludes that the proposed analytical concept, with its exemplary factors, maybe an initial means to holistically explore migration decisions in the context of natural hazards and climate and environmental change. However, environmental non-migration remains complex and multi-faceted, and its assessment requires deeper examination at various scales.

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    Humanities & Social Sciences Communications
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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