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Abstract Urban planners, local authorities, and energy policymakers often develop strategic sustainable energy plans for the urban building stock in order to minimize overall energy consumption and emissions. Planning at such scales could be informed by building stock modeling using existing building data and Geographic Information System-based mapping. However, implementing these processes involves several issues, namely, data availability, data inconsistency, data scalability, data integration, geocoding, and data privacy. This research addresses the aforementioned information challenges by proposing a generalized integrated methodology that implements bottom-up, data-driven, and spatial modeling approaches for multi-scale Geographic Information System mapping of building energy modeling. This study uses the Irish building stock to map building energy performance at multiple scales. The generalized data-driven methodology uses approximately 650,000 Irish Energy Performance Certificates buildings data to predict more than 2 million buildings’ energy performance. In this case, the approach delivers a prediction accuracy of 88% using deep learning algorithms. These prediction results are then used for spatial modeling at multiple scales from the individual building level to a national level. Furthermore, these maps are coupled with available spatial resources (social, economic, or environmental data) for energy planning, analysis, and support decision-making. The modeling results identify clusters of buildings that have a significant potential for energy savings within any specific region. Geographic Information System-based modeling aids stakeholders in identifying priority areas for implementing energy efficiency measures. Furthermore, the stakeholders could target local communities for retrofit campaigns, which would enhance the implementation of sustainable energy policy decisions.

Abstract The urge to increase renewable energy penetration into the power supply mix has been frequently highlighted in response to climate change. South Korea was analyzed as a case study for which the government has shown motivation to increase renewable energy penetration. Herein, a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) including solar and wind energies were selected due to their relatively stable and mature technology. In addition, Power-to-X has been incorporated to cover other renewable energy options such as hydrogen and synthetic natural gas (SNG). Therefore, an approach of forecasting the weather characteristics and demand loading over a relatively long timeframe was implemented via deep learning techniques (LSTM and GRU) and statistical approaches (Fbprophet and SARIMA), respectively. A deployment strategy incorporating HRES and Power-to-X is then proposed in correspondence to the forecasted results of the 15 regions considered in this study. An extension of this, the reliability of the designed system is further assessed based on the probability of the demand losses with the aid of Monte-Carlo simulation. With the proposed deployment strategy, a total annual cost of 9.88 × 1011 $/year and a greenhouse gas reduction of 1.24 × 106 tons/year are expected for a 35% renewable energy penetration. However, only SNG shows relatively competitive cost (at 23.20 $/m3 SNG), whereas the average costs of electricity (0.133 $/kWh) and hydrogen (7.784 $/kg H2) across the regions are yet to be competitive compared to the current market prices. Nonetheless, the priority of deployment across regions has been identified via TOPSIS.

This special edition to be published in Applied Energy brings together a range of papers that explore the complex, multi-dimensional and inter-related issues associated with the supply or value chains that make up energy systems and how a focus on them can bring new insights for energy security in a low carbon transition.\ud \ud Dealing with the trilemma of maintaining energy security, reducing greenhouse gas emissions and maintaining affordability for economies and end users are key issues for all countries, but there are synergies and trade-offs in simultaneously dealing with these different objectives. Currently, industrialised energy systems are dominated by supply chains based on fossil fuels and these, for the most part, have been effective in enabling energy security and affordability. However, they are increasingly struggling to do this, particularly in respect to efforts to tackle climate change, given that the energy sector is responsible for around two-thirds of the global greenhouse gas emissions [1]. A key challenge is therefore how to decarbonise energy systems, whilst also ensuring energy security and affordability. This special issue, through a focus on supply chains, particularly considers the interactions and relationships between energy security and decarbonisation.\ud \ud Energy security is a property of energy systems and their ability to withstand short-term shocks and longer-term stresses depends on other important system properties including resilience, robustness, flexibility and stability [2]. Energy systems are essentially a supply chain comprising of multiple and interrelated sub-chains based around different fuels, technologies, infrastructures, and actors, operating at different scales and locations – from extraction/imports and conversion through to end use [3]. These supply chains have become increasingly globalised and are influenced by the on-going shifts in global supply and demand. Thus the aim of this special issue is to explore and discuss how to enable the development of a secure and sustainable energy system through a better understanding of both existing and emerging low carbon energy supply chains as well as of new approaches to the design and management of energy systems. In part, because moving from a system dominated by fossil fuels to one based on low carbon creates a new set of risks and uncertainties for energy security as well as new opportunities.\ud \ud A large number of submissions from over 18 countries were received for this special edition and 16 papers were accepted after peer review. These address a variety of issues and we have chosen to discuss the findings under two key themes, although many of the papers cut across these: (1) Insights from, and for, supply chain analysis. (2) Insights for energy security and its management. We then provide in (3) a summary of insights and research gaps. Table 1 provides a snapshot of the areas covered by the papers showing: theme (s); empirical domains; and geographical coverage.

AbstractThe UK government heat strategy is partially based on decarbonisation pathways from the UK MARKAL energy system model. We review how heat provision is represented in UK MARKAL, identifying a number of shortcomings and areas for improvement. We present a completely revised model with improved estimations of future heat demands and a consistent representation of all heat generation technologies. This model represents all heat delivery infrastructure for the first time and uses dynamic growth constraints to improve the modelling of transitions according to innovation theory. Our revised model incorporates a simplified housing stock model, which is used produce highly-refined decarbonisation pathways for residential heat provision. We compare this disaggregated model against an aggregated equivalent, which is similar to the existing approach in UK MARKAL. Disaggregating does not greatly change the total residential fuel consumption in two scenarios, so the benefits of disaggregation will likely be limited if the focus of a study is elsewhere. Yet for studies of residential heat, disaggregation enables us to vary consumer behaviour and government policies on different house types, as well as highlighting different technology trends across the stock, in comparison with previous aggregated versions of the model.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a broad overview of the social and environmental costs and benefits of biofuels in Asia. The major factors that will determine the impacts of biofuels are: (1) their contribution to land-use change, (2) the feedstocks used, and (3) issues of technology and scale. Biofuels offer economic benefits, and in the right circumstances can reduce emissions and make a small contribution to energy security. Feedstocks that involve the conversion of agricultural land will affect food security and cause indirect land-use change, while those that replace forests, wetlands or natural grasslands will increase emissions and damage biodiversity. Biofuels from cellulose, algae or waste will avoid some of these problems, but come with their own set of uncertainties and risks. In order to ensure net societal benefits of biofuel production, governments, researchers, and companies will need to work together to carry out comprehensive assessments, map suitable and unsuitable areas, and define and apply standards relevant to the different circumstances of each country. The greatest benefits may come from feedstocks produced on a modest scale as co-products of smart technologies developed for phytoremediation, waste disposal and emissions reduction.

Abstract Small Mediterranean islands are remote, off-grid communities characterized by carbon intensive electricity systems coupled with high energy consuming desalination technologies to produce potable water. The aim of this study is to propose a novel dynamic, multi-objective optimization approach for improving the sustainability of small islands through the introduction of renewable energy sources. The main contributions of our approach include: (i) dynamic modelling of desalination plant operations, (ii) joint optimization of system design and operations, (iii) multi-objective optimization to explore trade-offs between potentially conflicting objectives. We test our approach on the real case study of the Italian Ustica island by means of a comparative analysis with a traditional non-dynamic, least cost optimization approach. Numerical results show the effectiveness of our approach in identifying optimal system configurations, which outperform the traditional design with respect to different sustainability indicators, limiting the structural interventions, the investment costs and the environmental impacts. In particular, the optimal dynamic solutions able to satisfy the whole water demand allow high levels of penetration of renewable energy sources (up to more than 40%) to be reached, reducing the net present cost by about 2–3 M€ and the CO2 emissions by more than 200 tons/y.

Abstract Cities are the major contributors to energy consumption and CO2 emissions, as well as being leading innovators and implementers of policy measures in climate change mitigation. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is an agglomeration of cities put forward by China to strengthen international cooperation among “Belt and Road” countries and promote low-carbon, inclusive, coordinated and sustainable development. Few studies have discussed the emission characteristics of GBA cities. This study, for the first time, compiles emission inventories of 11 GBA cities and their surroundings based on IPCC territorial emission accounting approach, which are consistent and comparable with the national and provincial inventories. Results show that (a) total emissions increased from 426 Mt in 2000 to 610 Mt in 2016, while emissions of GBA cities increased rapidly by 6.9% over 2000–2011 and peaked in 2014 (334 Mt); (b) raw coal and diesel oil are the top two emitters by energy type, while energy production sector and tertiary industry are the top two largest sectors; (c) GBA cities take the lead in low-carbon development, emitted 4% of total national emissions and contributed 13% of national GDP with less than a third of national emission intensities and less than three-quarters of national per capita emissions; (d) Macao, Shenzhen and Hong Kong have the top three lowest emission intensity in the country; (e) most of GBA cities are experiencing the shift from an industrial economy to a service economy, while Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Foshan and Huizhou reached their peak emissions and Guangzhou, Dongguan and Jiangmen remained decreasing emission tendencies; (g) for those coal-dominate or energy-production cities (i.e. Zhuhai, Zhongshan, Zhaoqing, Maoming, Yangjiang, Shanwei, Shaoguan and Zhanjiang) in mid-term industrialization, total emissions experienced soaring increases. The emission inventories provide robust, self-consistent, transparent and comparable data support for identifying spatial–temporal emission characteristics, developing low-carbon policies, monitoring mitigation progress in GBA cities as well as further emissions-related studies at a city-level. The low-carbon roadmaps designed for GBA cities and their surroundings also provide a benchmark for other developing countries/cities to adapting changing climate and achieve sustainable development.