• Energy Research
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Tourism is an important economic sector that has a significant impact on sustainability indicators, such as GHG emissions and cohesion. Local policy makers are increasingly challenged to manage the urban tourism system at large. As part of a EU funded project, the authors have conceptualized sustainable urban tourism as the ‘management of competing values’ represented in a conceptual model of ecology, visitability, livability, equity, economic growth and smart citizenship. A simulation game was designed and implemented to improve social learning about these competing values. The game was played in six European cities, with around 15 local policy-makers and stakeholders in each session. The players indicated a high level of satisfaction with the game and social learning. In order to understand to what extent the game is able to validate and communicate the competing values model, the start and end states of the tourism values of the cities, as logged in the game’s dashboard, were analyzed in a comparative manner. The analysis shows significant differences in how cities manage sustainable tourism, with marked differences in ecology and smart citizenship. The differences in tourism issues and policy making styles demonstrate the value of a simulation approach to support future planning processes.

Fuel moisture limits the availability of fuel to wildfires in many forest areas worldwide, but the effects of climate change on moisture constraints remain largely unknown. Here we addressed how climate affects fuel moisture in pine stands from Catalonia, NE Spain, and the potential effects of increasing climate aridity on burned area in the Pyrenees, a mesic mountainous area where fire is currently rare. We first quantified variation in fuel moisture in six sites distributed across an altitudinal gradient where the long-term mean annual temperature and precipitation vary by 6-15 °C and 395-933 mm, respectively. We observed significant spatial variation in live (78-162%) and dead (10-15%) fuel moisture across sites. The pattern of variation was negatively linked (r = |0.6|-|0.9|) to increases in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and in the Aridity Index. Using seasonal fire records over 2006-2020, we observed that summer burned area in the Mediterranean forests of Northeast Spain and Southern France was strongly dependent on VPD (r = 0.93), the major driver (and predictor) of dead fuel moisture content (DFMC) at our sites. Based on the difference between VPD thresholds associated with large wildfire seasons in the Mediterranean (3.6 kPa) and the maximum VPD observed in surrounding Pyrenean mountains (3.1 kPa), we quantified the "safety margin" for Pyrenean forests (difference between actual VPD and that associated with large wildfires) at 0.5 kPa. The effects of live fuel moisture content (LFMC) on burned area were not significant under current conditions, a situation that may change with projected increases in climate aridity. Overall, our results indicate that DFMC in currently fire-free areas in Europe, like the Pyrenees, with vast amounts of fuel in many forest stands, may reach critical dryness thresholds beyond the safety margin and experience large wildfires after only mild increases in VPD, although LFMC can modulate the response.

Although much is known about factors influencing short-term implementation, little is known about what factors are relevant for the long-term sustainment of innovations. In the Dutch National Quality Improvement Program for Palliative Care, innovations were implemented in 76 implementation projects.To give insight into the sustainment strategies used and factors facilitating and hindering sustainment.Online questionnaire with prestructured and open questions sent to the contact persons for 76 implementation projects, 2-6.5 years after the start.Information was gathered on 63 implementation projects (response 83%). Most projects took place in home care, general practices, and/or nursing homes. Sustainment was attained in 60% of the implementation projects. Six often applied strategies were statistically significantly related to sustainment: 1) realizing coherence between the innovation and the strategic policy of the organization; 2) arranging to have a specific professional responsible for the use of the innovation; 3) integrating the innovation into the organization's broader palliative care policy; 4) arranging accessibility of the innovation; 5) involving management in the implementation project; and 6) giving regular feedback about the implementation. In three-quarters of the projects, barriers and facilitators were encountered relating to characteristics of the care organizations, such as employee turnover and ratification of the project by the management.Applying the six strategies enhances sustainment. The organization plays a decisive role in the sustainment of innovations in palliative care. Engaging the management team in implementation projects from early onset is of utmost importance.

Earth’s biodiversity and human societies face pollution, overconsumption of natural resources, urbanization, demographic shifts, social and economic inequalities, and habitat loss, many of which are exacerbated by climate change. Here, we review links among climate, biodiversity, and society and develop a roadmap toward sustainability. These include limiting warming to 1.5°C and effectively conserving and restoring functional ecosystems on 30 to 50% of land, freshwater, and ocean “scapes.” We envision a mosaic of interconnected protected and shared spaces, including intensively used spaces, to strengthen self-sustaining biodiversity, the capacity of people and nature to adapt to and mitigate climate change, and nature’s contributions to people. Fostering interlinked human, ecosystem, and planetary health for a livable future urgently requires bold implementation of transformative policy interventions through interconnected institutions, governance, and social systems from local to global levels.

Ecosystem services (ES) emerge from the complex interactions of diverse ecosystem components. In turn, the provision of ES is influenced by how they are put to use and environmental drivers such as climate change and land use change (CC-LUC). Researches into CC-LUC impacts on ES have so far focused on biophysical supply rather than ES interactions, making it difficult to design appropriate strategies for natural capital investment and the consequent ecosystem benefits for human well-being. In this study, we built networks from correlations among climatic forcing, land-use intensity and ES for the Xijiang River Basin in southern China, a rapidly urbanizing region with rich endowments of ecosystem assets. The variations in network structure were evaluated under different climate and land use projections up to 2035. We found that the CC-LUC-ES networks were more sensitive to land use change which affected the network structure either by directly influencing biophysical ES supplies or indirectly through altering ES interactions. Sustainable land-use management (i.e., ecological protection priority scenario) coupled with the RCP4.5 emission scenario showed higher improvements for both water-erosion prevention and regulating services. Whereas increasing land-use intensity (i.e., economic development priority scenario) with RCP8.5 resulted in losses of ES synergies and a more heterogenous network of greater integrity. Our approach provides a comprehensive view of the relationships among multiple ES and how they respond to CC-LUC, which can be applied to advance mechanistic hypotheses for ES variations. The results of this study can inform sustainable management strategies by regulating ES interactions in watersheds.

Understanding vulnerabilities of plant populations to climate change could help preserve their biodiversity and reveal new elite parents for future breeding programmes. To this end, landscape genomics is a useful approach for assessing putative adaptations to future climatic conditions, especially in long-lived species such as trees. We conducted a population genomics study of 207 Coffea canephora trees from seven forests along different climate gradients in Uganda. For this, we sequenced 323 candidate genes involved in key metabolic and defence pathways in coffee. Seventy-one single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were found to be significantly associated with bioclimatic variables, and were thereby considered as putatively adaptive loci. These SNPs were linked to key candidate genes, including transcription factors, like DREB-like and MYB family genes controlling plant responses to abiotic stresses, as well as other genes of organoleptic interest, such as the DXMT gene involved in caffeine biosynthesis and a putative pest repellent. These climate-associated genetic markers were used to compute genetic offsets, predicting population responses to future climatic conditions based on local climate change forecasts. Using these measures of maladaptation to future conditions, substantial levels of genetic differentiation between present and future diversity were estimated for all populations and scenarios considered. The populations from the forests Zoka and Budongo, in the northernmost zone of Uganda, appeared to have the lowest genetic offsets under all predicted climate change patterns, while populations from Kalangala and Mabira, in the Lake Victoria region, exhibited the highest genetic offsets. The potential of these findings in terms of ex situ conservation strategies are discussed.

Droughts have increased in frequency, duration, and severity across most of the tropics but their effect on forest communities remain not fully understood. Here we assessed the effects of a severe El Niño-induced drought event on dominant and low abundance understory plant species and the consequent impacts on ecosystem functions in the South American Atlantic Forest. We established 20 permanent plots with contrasting vegetation structure and topography. In each plot, we measured the stem diameter at breast height (DBH) of every understory woody plant (i.e. 1 to 10 cm stem diameter) before and after a severe 4-year drought event to calculate relative growth and mortality rates after drought. Litter biomass, litter nutrient content and soil nutrients, as well as tree canopy cover, were also quantified. High stem density reduced survival to drought for both dominant and low abundance understory woody species. The growth rate of dominant and low abundance species was lower on steeper slopes during the drought. Dominant species were the main contributor of litter biomass production whereas low abundance species were important drivers of litter quality. Overall, our findings suggest that habitats with low tree density and larger trees on flat areas, such as in valleys, can act as refuges for understory plant species during drought periods. These habitats are resource-rich, providing nutrients and water during unfavorable drought periods and might improve forest resilience to climate change in the long term.

Wildfires can have strong negative effects on soil and water resources, especially in headwater areas. The spatially explicit OpenLISEM model was applied to a burned catchment in southern Portugal to quantify the individual and combined impacts of wildfire and rainfall on hydrological and erosion processes. The companion paper has calibrated and assessed model performance in this area before and after a fire. In this study, the model was applied with design storms of six different return periods (0.2, 0.5, 1, 2, 5, and 10 years) to simulate and evaluate pre- and post-wildfire hydrological and erosion responses at the catchment scale. Our results show that rainfall amount and intensity played a more important role than fire occurrence in the catchment discharge and sediment yields. Fire occurrence was found to be an important factor for peak discharge, indicating that high post-fire hydro-sedimentary responses are frequently related to extreme rainfall events. The results also suggest a partial shift from runoff to splash erosion after fire, especially for higher return periods. This can be explained by increased splash erosion in burned upstream areas saturating the sediment transport capacity of surface runoff, limiting runoff erosion in downstream areas. Therefore, the pre-fire erosion risk in the croplands of this catchment was partly shifted to a post-fire erosion risk in upper slope forest and natural areas, especially for storms with lower return periods, although erosion risks in croplands were important both before and after fires. These findings have significant implications to identify areas for post-wildfire stabilization and rehabilitation, which is particularly important given the predicted increase in the occurrence of fires and extreme rainfall events with climate change.

Soil organic matter is essential for preserving and maintaining a range of soil and ecosystem functions as well as supply and store carbon for climate change mitigation. Digital Soil Mapping techniques will be used to obtain a spatially continuous product, especially over permanently vegetated areas. Recently available satellite remote sensing data, with among other systems the Copernicus Sentinel, will be used as input for environmental covariates. Digital Soil Mapping, coupled together with Remote Sensing products, is a powerful tool to produce soil properties maps and monitoring the changes in soil conditions over time.