• Energy Research
• 2021-2025close
• CN close
• GB close
• DK close
• Applied Energy close

The rapid development of advanced metering infrastructure provides a new data source—building electrical load profiles with high temporal resolution. Electric load profile characterization can generate useful information to enhance building energy modeling and provide metrics to represent patterns and variability of load profiles. Such characterizations can be used to identify changes to building electricity demand due to operations or faulty equipment and controls. In this study, we proposed a two-path approach to analyze high temporal resolution building electrical load profiles: (1) time-domain analysis and (2) frequency-domain analysis. The commonly adopted time-domain analysis can extract and quantify the distribution of key parameters characterizing load shape such as peak-base load ratio and morning rise time, while a frequency-domain analysis can identify major periodic fluctuations and quantify load variability. We implemented and evaluated both paths using whole-year 15-minute interval smart meter data of 188 commercial office building in Northern California. The results from these two paths are consistent with each other and complementary to represent full dynamics of load profiles. The time- and frequency-domain analyses can be used to enhance building energy modeling by: (1) providing more realistic assumptions about building operation schedules, and (2) validating the simulated electric load profiles using the developed variability metrics against the real building load data.

Efficient integration of solar energy into the electricity mix depends on a reliable anticipation of its intermittency. A promising approach to forecast the temporal variability of solar irradiance resulting from the cloud cover dynamics is based on the analysis of sequences of ground-taken sky images or satellite observations. Despite encouraging results, a recurrent limitation of existing deep learning approaches lies in the ubiquitous tendency of reacting to past observations rather than actively anticipating future events. This leads to a frequent temporal lag and limited ability to predict sudden events. To address this challenge, we introduce ECLIPSE, a spatio-temporal neural network architecture that models cloud motion from sky images to not only predict future irradiance levels and associated uncertainties, but also segmented images, which provide richer information on the local irradiance map. We show that ECLIPSE anticipates critical events and reduces temporal delay while generating visually realistic futures. The model characteristics and properties are investigated with an ablation study and a comparative study on the benefits and different ways to integrate auxiliary data into the modelling. The model predictions are also interpreted through an analysis of the principal spatio-temporal components learned during network training. Manuscript accepted for publication in Applied Energy