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This paper is concerned with the risk management practices of an electricity retailer motivated by the Dutch electricity market. We examine the effectiveness of the existing base- and peak-load futures contracts as a risk management tool for the electricity retailers. We analytically characterize the retailer’s optimal hedging policy as a function of the serial correlation of the prices and the demand profiles of its customers. We find that the retailer typically over-hedges in the futures market, and the over-hedging amount increases when both base- and peak-load contracts are used. Our findings indicate that although the existing contracts in the futures market are quite efficient to replicate the exposure from profiled customers, when industrial consumers and renewable generation are included to the retailer’s portfolio, the effectiveness of such contracts decreases substantially. In our motivating example, hedging the risk of the profiled customers with base-load contracts, the firm may reduce the variance of its cash flows by 85.9%. In addition to the base-load contracts, including peak-load contracts into the hedging portfolio of the retailer increases the efficiency of hedging to 89.3%. However, when we consider the aggregate portfolio of the retailer including profiled customers, industrial consumers and renewable contracts, the efficiency of hedging through the existing futures contracts goes down as low as 32.8% during certain periods. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.

Abstract Life cycle assessment (LCA) of slow pyrolysis biochar systems (PBS) in the UK for small, medium and large scale process chains and ten feedstocks was performed, assessing carbon abatement and electricity production. Pyrolysis biochar systems appear to offer greater carbon abatement than other bioenergy systems. Carbon abatement of 0.7–1.3 t CO2 equivalent per oven dry tonne of feedstock processed was found. In terms of delivered energy, medium to large scale PBS abates 1.4–1.9 t CO2e/MWh, which compares to average carbon emissions of 0.05–0.30 t CO2e/MWh for other bioenergy systems. The largest contribution to PBS carbon abatement is from the feedstock carbon stabilised in biochar (40–50%), followed by the less certain indirect effects of biochar in the soil (25–40%)—mainly due to increase in soil organic carbon levels. Change in soil organic carbon levels was found to be a key sensitivity. Electricity production off-setting emissions from fossil fuels accounted for 10–25% of carbon abatement. The LCA suggests that provided 43% of the carbon in the biochar remains stable, PBS will out-perform direct combustion of biomass at 33% efficiency in terms of carbon abatement, even if there is no beneficial effect upon soil organic carbon levels from biochar application.

Abstract The recently developed minimum bubbling criterion of Brandani and Zhang [19] for a prediction of the minimum bubbling point was validated using an experimental determination of the minimum bubbling points of spherical rigid non-porous powders with various particle size distributions. These powders include a narrow size cut powder, a “natural” size distribution powder and a “bimodal” size distribution powder. The minimum bubbling points were correctly identified using the e d and U d characteristic curves, obtained from a correct interpretation of 1-valve and 2-valve bed collapse curves using the bed collapse model, developed by Cherntongchai and Brandani in [21] . In order to enhance the prediction ability of the stability criterion, an appropriate drag force correlation was introduced into the criterion. Then, it was pointed out that the characteristic parameter of the criterion has a strong dependence on the voidage term as an exponential function. As a result, a simple empirical correlation is proposed. The new stability criterion was, then, tested against a detailed comparison of 700 minimum bubbling points taken from literature. The criterion can very well predict the minimum bubbling voidage for various operating conditions of rigid non-porous materials and predict fairly well the minimum bubbling velocity.

In normal subjects, alcohol increases handwriting size, but the mechanism is not understood. Here we show that the alcohol effect on handwriting can be explained by a selective impairment of kinaesthetic perception. Thirty volunteers (15 male, aged 18-29 years) took part in an open study. They were tested before and after a drink containing vodka intended to produce a blood alcohol concentration of about 80mg/100ml. Tests included kinaesthetic distance estimation, in which volunteers worked with preferred hand and arm behind a screen which hid their movements; visual distance estimation; and measures of handwriting and drawing. Blood alcohol concentration at 55min, based on breathalyser measurements, was 76.7mg/100ml (SD 9.8). When asked to move the hand and mark a distance of 10cm from a starting point, distances estimates increased by 7-10% ( p 0.01). Similar increases were seen for writing words and drawing characters. Signatures were increased in height but not in length. Distances estimated visually were increased much less, by 3-4% ( p 0.05). Tests of psychomotor performance indicated the expected effects of ethanol. These results suggest that ethanol affects writing size by reducing kinaesthetically perceived distances.

AbstractTiming of breeding, an important driver of fitness in many populations, is widely studied in the context of global change, yet despite considerable efforts to identify environmental drivers of seabird nesting phenology, for most populations we lack evidence of strong drivers. Here we adopt an alternative approach, examining the degree to which different populations positively covary in their annual phenology to infer whether phenological responses to environmental drivers are likely to be (a) shared across species at a range of spatial scales, (b) shared across populations of a species or (c) idiosyncratic to populations.We combined 51 long‐term datasets on breeding phenology spanning 50 years from nine seabird species across 29 North Atlantic sites and examined the extent to which different populations share early versus late breeding seasons depending on a hierarchy of spatial scales comprising breeding site, small‐scale region, large‐scale region and the whole North Atlantic.In about a third of cases, we found laying dates of populations of different species sharing the same breeding site or small‐scale breeding region were positively correlated, which is consistent with the hypothesis that they share phenological responses to the same environmental conditions. In comparison, we found no evidence for positive phenological covariation among populations across species aggregated at larger spatial scales.In general, we found little evidence for positive phenological covariation between populations of a single species, and in many instances the inter‐year variation specific to a population was substantial, consistent with each population responding idiosyncratically to local environmental conditions. Black‐legged kittiwakeRissa tridactylawas the exception, with populations exhibiting positive covariation in laying dates that decayed with the distance between breeding sites, suggesting that populations may be responding to a similar driver.Our approach sheds light on the potential factors that may drive phenology in our study species, thus furthering our understanding of the scales at which different seabirds interact with interannual variation in their environment. We also identify additional systems and phenological questions to which our inferential approach could be applied.

Space-borne column measurements of formaldehyde (HCHO), a high-yield oxidation product of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), represent important constraints for quantifying net regional fluxes of VOCs. Here, we interpret observed distributions of HCHO columns from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) over tropical South America during 1997–2001. We present the first comparison of year-long in situ isoprene concentrations and fire-free GOME HCHO columns over a tropical ecosystem. GOME HCHO columns and in situ isoprene concentrations are elevated in the wet and dry seasons, with the highest values in the dry season. Previous analysis of the in situ data highlighted the possible role of drought in determining the elevated concentrations during the dry season, inferring the potential of HCHO columns to provide regional-scale constraints for estimating the role of drought on isoprene emissions. The agreement between the observed annual cycles of GOME HCHO columns and Along-Track Scanning Radiometer firecount data over the Amazon basin (correlations typically greater than 0.75 for a particular year) illustrates the potential of HCHO column to provide quantitative information about biomass burning emissions.

Early Science and Technology Studies (STS) scholars recognized that the social construction of knowledge depends on skepticism’s parasitic relationship to background expectations and trust. Subsequent generations have paid less empirical attention to skepticism in science and its relationship with trust. I seek to rehabilitate skepticism in STS – particularly, Merton’s view of skepticism as a scientific norm sustained by trust among status peers – with a study of what I call ‘civil skepticism’. The empirical grounding is a case in contemporary dendroclimatology and the development of a method (‘Blue Intensity’) for generating knowledge about climate change from trees. I present a sequence of four instances of civil skepticism involved in making Blue Intensity more resistant to critique, and hence credible (in laboratory experiments, workshops, conferences, and peer-review of articles). These skeptical interactions depended upon maintaining communal notions of civility among an increasingly extended network of mutually trusted peers through a variety of means: by making Blue Intensity complementary to existing methods used to study a diverse natural world (tree-ring patterns) and by contributing to a shared professional goal (the study of global climate change). I conclude with a sociological theory about the role of civil skepticism in constituting knowledge-claims of greater generality and relevance.

Polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), reported to be cytotoxic at micromolar concentrations for cancer cells in vitro and in vivo, are currently being tested in clinical trials as anti-cancer agents. This study has shown that seven PUFAs all inhibited the growth in vitro of three pancreatic cancer cell lines and the HL-60 leukaemic cell line. Five PUFAs induced cell death within 20-30 h, but two less potent PUFAs induced death between 50 and 75 h. Apoptosis was demonstrated to be the mode of cell death by light, UV fluorescence, and electron microscopy, together with studies of DNA fragmentation. In a time-course study of PUFA-treated Mia-Pa-Ca-2 cells, apoptosis accounted for an average of 80 per cent of the loss of viability, with 'secondary necrosis', a feature of late apoptosis, apparently accounting for the remainder. Correlations were found between the number of fatty acid double bonds and the proportion of cells undergoing apoptosis induced in both Mia-Pa-Ca-2 cells (R = 0.88, P = 0.0001) and HL-60 cells (R = 0.85, P = 0.0001) and inversely with the micromolar concentrations of PUFAs required for 50 per cent inhibition of growth (IC50) of Mia-Pa-Ca-2 cells (R = -0.73, P = 0.05). Cell death was preceded by progressively increasing lipid peroxidation. The extent of PUFA-induced lipid peroxidation, measured as malondialdehyde (MDA), also correlated with the proportion of apoptosis induced in Mia-Pa-Ca-2 cells (R = 0.69, P = 0.025) or HL-60 cells (R = 0.64, P = 0.043), as well as with the number of fatty acid double bonds (R = 0.82, P = 0.0015). PUFA-induced apoptosis was oxidative, being blocked by both vitamin E acetate and sodium selenite, the latter in a critically time-dependent manner. The cytotoxic effects of exposure to a PUFA and to gamma-irradiation simultaneously with, or prior to, the addition of PUFA.