• Energy Research
• 2025-2025close
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Energy forecasting is an essential task in power system operations. Operators usually issue forecasts and leverage them to schedule energy dispatch ahead of time. However, forecast models are typically developed in a way that overlooks the operational value of the forecasts. To bridge the gap, we design a value-oriented point forecasting approach for sequential energy dispatch problems with renewable energy sources. At the training phase, we align the loss function with the overall operation cost function, thereby achieving reduced operation costs. The forecast model parameter estimation is formulated as a bilevel program. Under mild assumptions, we convert the upper-level objective into an equivalent form using the dual solutions obtained from the lower-level operation problems. Additionally, a novel iterative solution strategy is proposed for the newly formulated bilevel program. Under such an iterative scheme, we show that the upper-level objective is locally linear regarding the forecast model output, and can act as the loss function. Numerical experiments demonstrate that, compared to commonly used statistical quality-oriented point forecasting methods, forecasts obtained by the proposed approach result in lower operation costs. Meanwhile, the proposed approach is more computationally efficient than traditional two-stage stochastic programs. Accepted in IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid

Recent years have witnessed exponential growth in developing deep learning models for time series electricity forecasting in power systems. However, most of the proposed models are designed based on the designers’ inherent knowledge and experience without elaborating on the suitability of the proposed neural architectures. Moreover, these models cannot be self-adjusted to dynamically changed data patterns due to the inflexible design of their structures. Although several recent studies have considered the application of the neural architecture search (NAS) technique for obtaining a network with an optimized structure in the electricity forecasting sector, their training process is computationally expensive and their search strategies are not flexible, indicating that the NAS application in this area is still at an infancy stage. In this study, we propose an intelligent automated architecture search (IAAS) framework for the development of time series electricity forecasting models. The proposed framework contains three primary components, that is, network function–preserving transformation operation, reinforcement learning–based network transformation control, and heuristic network screening, which aim to improve the search quality of a network structure. After conducting comprehensive experiments on two publicly available electricity load data sets and two wind power data sets, we demonstrate that the proposed IAAS framework significantly outperforms the 10 existing models or methods in terms of forecasting accuracy and stability. Finally, we perform an ablation experiment to showcase the importance of critical components in the proposed IAAS framework in improving forecasting accuracy. History: Accepted by Ram Ramesh, Area Editor for Data Science and Machine Learning. Funding: J. Yang, G. Jiang, and Y. Chen were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72293562, 72121001, 72101066, 72131005, 71801148, and 72171060]. Y. Chen was supported by the Heilongjiang Natural Science Excellent Youth Fund [YQ2022G004]. Supplemental Material: The software ( Yang et al. 2023 ) that supports the findings of this study is available within the paper and its Supplemental Information ( https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/suppl/10.1287/ijoc.2023.0034 ) as well as from the IJOC GitHub software repository ( https://github.com/INFORMSJoC/2023.0034 ). The complete IJOC Software and Data Repository is available at https://informsjoc.github.io/ .

Global climate challenge is demanding urgent actions for decarbonization, while electric power systems take the major roles in clean energy transition. Due to the existence of spatially and temporally dispersed renewable energy resources and the uneven distribution of carbon emission intensity throughout the grid, it is worth investigating future load planning and demand management to offset those generations with higher carbon emission rates. Such techniques include inter-region utilization of geographically shiftable resources and stochastic renewable energy. For instance, data center is considered to be a major carbon emission producer in the future due to increasing information load, while it holds the capability of geographical load balancing. In this paper, we propose a novel planning and operation model minimizing the system-level carbon emissions via sitting and operating geographically shiftable resources. This model decides the optimal locations for shiftable resources expansion along with power dispatch schedule. To accommodate future system operation patterns and a wide range of operating conditions, we incorporate 20-year fine-grained load and renewables scenarios for grid simulations of realistic sizes (e.g., up to 1888 buses). To tackle the computational challenges coming from the combinatorial nature of such large-scale planning problem, we develop a customized Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) method, which can find reasonable solutions satisfying solution time limits. Besides, MCTS enables flexible time window settings and offline solution adjustments. Extensive simulations validate that our planning model can reduce more than 10\% carbon emission across all setups. Compared to off-the-shelf optimization solvers such as Gurobi, our method achieves up to 8.1X acceleration while the solution gaps are less than 1.5\% in large-scale cases. Accepted at IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

In order to solve the problem of excessive burden of electricity and energy consumption in urban landscape buildings clusters, the study combined data mining algorithms to establish a prediction model for energy-saving renovation of urban landscape building clusters. Firstly, the energy demand and energy consumption of theurban landscape buildings complex were analysed, a mathematical model was established to predict the energy consumption of the building complex. Then, the prediction model of energy-saving retrofitting of building clusters was constructed by combining data mining techniques. The experimental results show that the change trend of total energy consumption is different under different single influencing factors of energy consumption. Among them, the lighting power density factor has the greatest influence on energy consumption, and its annual energy consumption change rate can reach about 0.35. Applying the prediction model to the energy consumption prediction of 15 urban single buildings, it was found that the total energy consumption of the buildings before the retrofit was much higher than that after the retrofit, and the energy-saving rate of the whole observed sample building group was as high as 18.5%, meanwhile, the highest energy-saving rate of the single buildings reached 30.1%.

Electrical load forecasting plays a crucial role in decision-making for power systems, including unit commitment and economic dispatch. The integration of renewable energy sources and the occurrence of external events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, have rapidly increased uncertainties in load forecasting. The uncertainties in load forecasting can be divided into two types: epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty. Separating these types of uncertainties can help decision-makers better understand where and to what extent the uncertainty is, thereby enhancing their confidence in the following decision-making. This paper proposes a diffusion-based Seq2Seq structure to estimate epistemic uncertainty and employs the robust additive Cauchy distribution to estimate aleatoric uncertainty. Our method not only ensures the accuracy of load forecasting but also demonstrates the ability to separate the two types of uncertainties and be applicable to different levels of loads. The relevant code can be found at \url{https://anonymous.4open.science/r/DiffLoad-4714/}. Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2024

Machine learning's application in solar-thermal desalination is limited by data shortage and inconsistent analysis. This study develops an optimized dataset collection and analysis process for the representative solar still. By ultra-hydrophilic treatment on the condensation cover, the dataset collection process reduces the collection time by 83.3%. Over 1,000 datasets are collected, which is nearly one order of magnitude larger than up-to-date works. Then, a new interdisciplinary process flow is proposed. Some meaningful results are obtained that were not addressed by previous studies. It is found that Radom Forest might be a better choice for datasets larger than 1,000 due to both high accuracy and fast speed. Besides, the dataset range affects the quantified importance (weighted value) of factors significantly, with up to a 115% increment. Moreover, the results show that machine learning has a high accuracy on the extrapolation prediction of productivity, where the minimum mean relative prediction error is just around 4%. The results of this work not only show the necessity of the dataset characteristics' effect but also provide a standard process for studying solar-thermal desalination by machine learning, which would pave the way for interdisciplinary study.

Predict+Optimize frameworks integrate forecasting and optimization to address real-world challenges such as renewable energy scheduling, where variability and uncertainty are critical factors. This paper benchmarks solutions from the IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling, focusing on forecasting renewable production and demand and optimizing energy cost. The competition attracted 49 participants in total. The top-ranked method employed stochastic optimization using LightGBM ensembles, and achieved at least a 2% reduction in energy costs compared to deterministic approaches, demonstrating that the most accurate point forecast does not necessarily guarantee the best performance in downstream optimization. The published data and problem setting establish a benchmark for further research into integrated forecasting-optimization methods for energy systems, highlighting the importance of considering forecast uncertainty in optimization models to achieve cost-effective and reliable energy management. The novelty of this work lies in its comprehensive evaluation of Predict+Optimize methodologies applied to a real-world renewable energy scheduling problem, providing insights into the scalability, generalizability, and effectiveness of the proposed solutions. Potential applications extend beyond energy systems to any domain requiring integrated forecasting and optimization, such as supply chain management, transportation planning, and financial portfolio optimization.

Energy management systems (EMS) have traditionally been implemented using rule-based control (RBC) and model predictive control (MPC) methods. However, recent research has explored the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a promising alternative. This paper introduces TreeC, a machine learning method that utilizes the covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy metaheuristic algorithm to generate an interpretable EMS modeled as a decision tree. Unlike RBC and MPC approaches, TreeC learns the decision strategy of the EMS based on historical data, adapting the control model to the controlled energy grid. The decision strategy is represented as a decision tree, providing interpretability compared to RL methods that often rely on black-box models like neural networks. TreeC is evaluated against MPC with perfect forecast and RL EMSs in two case studies taken from literature: an electric grid case and a household heating case. In the electric grid case, TreeC achieves an average energy loss and constraint violation score of 19.2, which is close to MPC and RL EMSs that achieve scores of 14.4 and 16.2 respectively. All three methods control the electric grid well especially when compared to the random EMS, which obtains an average score of 12 875. In the household heating case, TreeC performs similarly to MPC on the adjusted and averaged electricity cost and total discomfort (0.033 EUR/m$^2$ and 0.42 Kh for TreeC compared to 0.037 EUR/m$^2$ and 2.91 kH for MPC), while outperforming RL (0.266 EUR/m$^2$ and 24.41 Kh). Accepted version Knowledge based system