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Climate disasters affect human security and development, moreso in fragile and conflict-affected contexts where population’ capacities to cope with climate change are compromised. Responses to such crises lie at the nexus of humanitarian assistance, development, and peacebuilding. Yet, there are still too few integrated programmatic responses coordinating peacebuilding and climate actions to ensure a progressive human development. This research develops a multi-scalar model to help actors identify thematic areas to inform synergistic efforts and programs at different scales to better coordinate their actions. Findings suggest that climate action and peacebuilding sectors can coordinate actions around climate and conflict risk assessments, the management of land and water resources, ecosystem restoration, nature-based climate adaptation, climate and conflict smart agriculture, natural resources governance, and sustainable market development. These collaborative efforts have the potential to generate co-benefits, such as increased social cohesion and livelihood creation.

Reducing methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice production is an important target for many Asian countries in order to comply with their climate policy commitments. National greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory approaches like the Tier-2 approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are useful to assess country-scale emissions from the agricultural sector. In paddy rice, alternate wetting and drying (AWD) is a promising and well-studied water management technique which, as shown in experimental studies, can effectively reduce CH4 emissions. However, so far little is known about GHG emission rates under AWD when the technique is fully controlled by farmers. This study assesses CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O) fluxes under continuous flooded (CF) and AWD treatments for seven subsequent seasons on farmers’ fields in a pumped irrigation system in Central Luzon, Philippines. Under AWD management, CH4 emissions were substantially reduced (73% in dry season (DS), 21% in wet season (WS)). In all treatments, CH4 is the major contributor to the total GHG emission and is, thus, identified as the driving force to the global warming potential (GWP). The contribution of N2O emissions to the GWP was higher in CF than in AWD, however, these only offset 15% of the decrease in CH4 emission and, therefore, did not jeopardize the strong reduction in the GWP. The study proves the feasibility of AWD under farmers’ management as well as the intended mitigation effect. Resulting from this study, it is recommended to incentivize dissemination strategies in order to improve the effectiveness of mitigation initiatives. A comparison of single CH4 emissions to calculated emissions with the IPCC Tier-2 inventory approach identified that, although averaged values showed a sufficient degree of accuracy, fluctuations for single measurement points have high variation which limit the use of the method for field-level assessments.

Asseng, S. et al. Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production1. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature2. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 °C to 32 °C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each °C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time. We thank the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and its leaders C. Rosenzweig from NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University (USA), J. Jones from University of Florida (USA), J. Hatfield from United States Department of Agriculture (USA) and J. Antle from Oregon State University (USA) for support. We also thank M. Lopez from CIMMYT (Turkey), M. Usman Bashir from University of Agriculture, Faisalabad (Pakistan), S. Soufizadeh from Shahid Beheshti University (Iran), and J. Lorgeou and J-C. Deswarte from ARVALIS—Institut du Végétal (France) for assistance with selecting key locations and quantifying regional crop cultivars, anthesis and maturity dates and R. Raymundo for assistance with GIS. S.A. and D.C. received financial support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). C.S. was funded through USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture award 32011-68002-30191. C.M. received financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). F.E. received support from the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2812ERA115) and E.E.R. was funded through the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5-1). M.J. and J.E.O. were funded through the FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council. K.C.K. and C.N. were funded by the FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). F.T., T.P. and R.P.R. received financial support from FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM); F.T. was also funded through National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071030). C.B. was funded through the Helmholtz project ‘REKLIM—Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects’ Topic 9: ‘Climate Change and Air Quality’. M.P.R. and P.D.A. received funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). G.O’L. was funded through the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Department of Environment and Primary Industries Victoria, Australia. R.C.I. was funded by Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University. E.W. and Z.Z. were funded by CSIRO and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) through the research project ‘Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen’ and by the CSIRO-MoE PhD Research Program. Peer reviewed

Crop adaptation to climate change requires accelerated crop variety introduction accompanied by recommendations to help farmers match the best variety with their field contexts. Existing approaches to generate these recommendations lack scalability and predictivity in marginal production environments. We tested if crowdsourced citizen science can address this challenge, producing empirical data across geographic space that, in aggregate, can characterize varietal climatic responses. We present the results of 12,409 farmer-managed experimental plots of common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in Nicaragua, durum wheat ( Triticum durum Desf.) in Ethiopia, and bread wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) in India. Farmers collaborated as citizen scientists, each ranking the performance of three varieties randomly assigned from a larger set. We show that the approach can register known specific effects of climate variation on varietal performance. The prediction of variety performance from seasonal climatic variables was generalizable across growing seasons. We show that these analyses can improve variety recommendations in four aspects: reduction of climate bias, incorporation of seasonal climate forecasts, risk analysis, and geographic extrapolation. Variety recommendations derived from the citizen science trials led to important differences with previous recommendations.

Reduced river runoff and expected upstream infrastructural developments are both potential threats to irrigation water availability for the downstream countries in Central Asia. Although it has been recurrently mentioned that a reduction in water supply will hamper irrigation in the downstream countries, the magnitude of associated economic losses, economy-wide repercussions on employment rates, and degradation of irrigated lands has not been quantified as yet. A computable general equilibrium model is used to assess the economy-wide consequences of a reduced water supply in Uzbekistan—a country that encompasses more than half of the entire irrigated croplands in Central Asia. Modeling findings showed that a 10–20 % reduction in water supply, as expected in the near future, may reduce the areas to be irrigated by 241,000–374,000 hectares and may cause unemployment to a population of 712–868,000, resulting in a loss for the national income of 3.6–4.3 %. A series of technical, financial, and institutional measures, implementable at all levels starting from the farm to the basin scale, are discussed for reducing the expected water risks. The prospects of improving the basin-wide water management governance, increasing water and energy use efficiency, and establishing the necessary legal and institutional frameworks for enhancing the introduction of needed technological and socioeconomic change are argued as options for gaining more regional water security and equity.

Over the past 70 years, the world has witnessed extraordinary growth in crop productivity, enabled by a suite of technological advances, including higher yielding crop varieties, improved farm management, synthetic agrochemicals, and agricultural mechanization. While this “Green Revolution” intensified crop production, and is credited with reducing famine and malnutrition, its benefits were accompanied by several undesirable collateral effects (Pingali, 2012). These include a narrowing of agricultural biodiversity, stemming from increased monoculture and greater reliance on a smaller number of crops and crop varieties for the majority of our calories. This reduction in diversity has created vulnerabilities to pest and disease epidemics, climate variation, and ultimately to human health (Harlan, 1972). The value of crop diversity has long been recognized (Vavilov, 1992). A global system of genebanks (e.g., www.genebanks.org/genebanks/) was established in the 1970s to conserve the abundant genetic variation found in traditional “landrace” varieties of crops and in crop wild relatives (Harlan, 1972). While preserving crop variation is a critical first step, the time has come to make use of this variation to breed more resilient crops. The DivSeek International Network (https://divseekintl.org/) is a scientific, not-for-profit organization that aims to accelerate such efforts.