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Abstract In this paper, a medium-term load forecasting model is proposed, intended to be used for the extrapolation of loads containing a small proportion of air conditioners. The main feature of the proposed model is the decomposition of weekly load observations into two independent components: trend line and seasonal variations. The trend line is described by the combination of the polynomial regression and the first-order autoregressive model. The parameters of this model are estimated with the aid of the generalized least-squares method. The seasonal component is modeled via a discrete model, where the weather sensitive cycle is separated from the weather insensitive one. A linear regression model is further proposed in order to associate weather sensitive variations with the exogenous weather variable (temperature). This procedure enabled a simple and efficient convolution of all load components into a single forecasting model. The whole methodology is verified on a real-life example of the peak-load consumption within the power system of former Yugoslavia.

Abstract In this paper, a medium-term load forecasting model is proposed, intended to be used for the extrapolation of loads containing a small proportion of air conditioners. The main feature of the proposed model is the decomposition of weekly load observations into two independent components: trend line and seasonal variations. The trend line is described by the combination of the polynomial regression and the first-order autoregressive model. The parameters of this model are estimated with the aid of the generalized least-squares method. The seasonal component is modeled via a discrete model, where the weather sensitive cycle is separated from the weather insensitive one. A linear regression model is further proposed in order to associate weather sensitive variations with the exogenous weather variable (temperature). This procedure enabled a simple and efficient convolution of all load components into a single forecasting model. The whole methodology is verified on a real-life example of the peak-load consumption within the power system of former Yugoslavia.

Artículos en revistas In this paper we apply stochastic dual dynamic programming decomposition to a nonconvex multistage stochastic hydrothermal model where the nonlinear water head effects on production and the nonlinear dependence between the reservoir head and the reservoir volume are modeled. The nonconvex constraints that represent the production function of a hydro plant are approximated by McCormick envelopes. These constraints are split into smaller regions and the McCormick envelopes are used for each region. We use binary variables for this disjunctive programming approach and solve the problem with a decomposition method. We resort to a variant of the L-shaped method for solving the MIP subproblem with binary variables at any stage inside the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. A realistic large-scale case study is presented. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Artículos en revistas In this paper we apply stochastic dual dynamic programming decomposition to a nonconvex multistage stochastic hydrothermal model where the nonlinear water head effects on production and the nonlinear dependence between the reservoir head and the reservoir volume are modeled. The nonconvex constraints that represent the production function of a hydro plant are approximated by McCormick envelopes. These constraints are split into smaller regions and the McCormick envelopes are used for each region. We use binary variables for this disjunctive programming approach and solve the problem with a decomposition method. We resort to a variant of the L-shaped method for solving the MIP subproblem with binary variables at any stage inside the stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm. A realistic large-scale case study is presented. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Artículos en revistas Liberalization policies, the challenges of integrating distributed generation resources, and the recent flattening of electricity demand due to the economic crisis and technological change have led to lower returns for European electricity suppliers. Innovative and sustainable business models are needed to serve electricity customers while reflecting the operational needs of the system and maintaining supplier financial viability. This paper describes a novel model of Integrated Energy Services that encompasses distributed generation (DG) and demand response (DR) resources for industrial customers. We further reflect on some of the market opportunities and regulatory drivers for the development of similar schemes across Europe. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Artículos en revistas Liberalization policies, the challenges of integrating distributed generation resources, and the recent flattening of electricity demand due to the economic crisis and technological change have led to lower returns for European electricity suppliers. Innovative and sustainable business models are needed to serve electricity customers while reflecting the operational needs of the system and maintaining supplier financial viability. This paper describes a novel model of Integrated Energy Services that encompasses distributed generation (DG) and demand response (DR) resources for industrial customers. We further reflect on some of the market opportunities and regulatory drivers for the development of similar schemes across Europe. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

The development of heat transfer fluids (HTF) and heat storage materials (HSM) is crucial to design concentrating solar plant (CSP). Binary alkaline nitrate mixtures are currently used as sensible thermal energy storage materials. However, multi-component nitrate/nitrite systems were proposed as possible better candidates. In particular, ternaries mixtures containing sodium, potassium, and calcium are extremely promising as thermal fluids, given their reduced toxicity and greater cost-effectiveness. Nevertheless, very few data are present in the scientific literature regarding the correspondent phase diagram, and only the properties of specific compositions are reported. For this reason, a regular solution model was developed and employed in this work, and validated by comparing the simulation results with experimentally obtained phase change values. In particular, given that the common calorimetric techniques are impracticable for detecting the transition temperatures of calcium containing nitrate mixtur...

The development of heat transfer fluids (HTF) and heat storage materials (HSM) is crucial to design concentrating solar plant (CSP). Binary alkaline nitrate mixtures are currently used as sensible thermal energy storage materials. However, multi-component nitrate/nitrite systems were proposed as possible better candidates. In particular, ternaries mixtures containing sodium, potassium, and calcium are extremely promising as thermal fluids, given their reduced toxicity and greater cost-effectiveness. Nevertheless, very few data are present in the scientific literature regarding the correspondent phase diagram, and only the properties of specific compositions are reported. For this reason, a regular solution model was developed and employed in this work, and validated by comparing the simulation results with experimentally obtained phase change values. In particular, given that the common calorimetric techniques are impracticable for detecting the transition temperatures of calcium containing nitrate mixtur...