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Input files for the ForClim model (version 4.0.1) used in the associated paper. They can be used to to reproduce results of the simulation study. The ForClim model, including the source code, executable and documentation, is freely available under an Open Access license from the website of the original developers at https://ites-fe.ethz.ch/openaccess/. The original climatic dataset used to generate the ForClim input climate files at each site in South Tyrol is freely available at https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.924502 while the CHELSA climate data for future scenarios are available at https://www.chelsa-climate.org. If interested in using this dataset for a research study or a project, please contact Marco Mina ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Hillebrand L, Marzini S, Crespi A, Hiltner U & Mina M (2023) Contrasting impacts of climate change on protection forests of the Italian Alps. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 6, 2023 https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1240235 ABSTRACT. Protection forests play a key role in protecting settlements, people, and infrastructures from gravitational hazards such as rockfalls and avalanches in mountain areas. Rapid climate change is challenging the role of protection forests by altering their dynamics, structure, and composition. Information on local- and regional-scale impacts of climate change on protection forests is critical for planning adaptations in forest management. We used a model of forest dynamics (ForClim) to assess the succession of mountain forests in the Eastern Alps and their protective effects under future climate change scenarios. We investigated eleven representative forest sites along an elevational gradient across multiple locations within an administrative region, covering wide differences in tree species structure, composition, altitude, and exposition. We evaluated protective performance against rockfall and avalanches using numerical indices (i.e., linker functions) quantifying the degree of protection from metrics of simulated forest structure and composition. Our findings reveal that climate warming has a contrasting impact on protective effects in mountain forests of the Eastern Alps. Climate change is likely to not affect negatively all protection forest stands but its impact depends on site and stand conditions. Impacts were highly contingent to the magnitude of climate warming, with increasing criticality under the most severe climate projections. Forests in lower-montane elevations and those located in dry continental valleys showed drastic changes in forest structure and composition due to drought-induced mortality while subalpine forests mostly profited from rising temperatures and a longer vegetation period. Overall, avalanche protection will likely be negatively affected by climate change, while the ability of forests to maintain rockfall protection depends on the severity of expected climate change and their vulnerability due to elevation and topography, with most subalpine forests less prone to loosing protective effects. Proactive measures in management should be taken in the near future to avoid losses of protective effects in the case of severe climate change in the Alps. Given the heterogeneous impact of climate warming, such adaptations can be aided by model-based projections and high local resolution studies to identify forest stand types that might require management priority for maintaining protective effects in the future.

Data from: 30 Years Brings Changes to the Arthropod Community of Kibale National Park, Uganda by Opito, E.A., T. Alanko, U. Kalbitzer, M. Nummelin, P. Omeja, A. Valtonen, and Colin A. Chapman. 2023, Biotropica, Article DOI: 10.1111/btp.13206

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.AerChemMIP.HAMMOZ-Consortium.MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The MPI-ESM1.2-HAM climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: HAM2.3, atmos: ECHAM6.3 (spectral T63; 192 x 96 longitude/latitude; 47 levels; top level 0.01 hPa), atmosChem: sulfur chemistry (unnamed), land: JSBACH 3.20, ocean: MPIOM1.63 (bipolar GR1.5, approximately 1.5deg; 256 x 220 longitude/latitude; 40 levels; top grid cell 0-12 m), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC6, seaIce: unnamed (thermodynamic (Semtner zero-layer) dynamic (Hibler 79) sea ice model). The model was run by the ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Max Planck Institut fur Meteorologie, Germany; Forschungszentrum Julich, Germany; University of Oxford, UK; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland; Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Germany; Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) at ETH Zurich, Switzerland (HAMMOZ-Consortium) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 250 km, ocnBgchem: 250 km, seaIce: 250 km.

Suitability maps (raster format: geotiff) of Quercus frainetto, computed using the ForestFocus European dataset of species presence/absence. The adopted suitability model estimates the optimal environmental conditions for European tree species under present and future climates. Available years: 2000, 2020, 2050, 2080. For year 2000 the observed (WorldClim) climate conditions have been used. For years 2020, 2050, 2080 the climate conditions simulated for the climate change scenarios A2 and B2 have been used (by means of the climate models CCCMA, CSIRO, HANDCM3 and of an ensemble model of them).

This dataset contains spatial predictions of the potential environmental spaces for pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost areas. The potential environmental spaces, i.e. conditions where climate, topography and soil properties are suitable for landform presence, were predicted with statistical ensemble modelling employing geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution (~1 km). In addition to the baseline period (1950-2000), the predictions are provided for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). The resulting dataset consists of five spatial predictions for each landform in GeoTIFF format.The data provide new information on 1) the fine-scale spatial distribution of permafrost landforms in the Northern Hemisphere, 2) the potential future alterations in the environmental suitability for permafrost landforms due to climate change, and 3) the circumpolar distribution of various ground ice types, and can 4) facilitate efforts to inventory permafrost landforms in incompletely mapped areas.

Figure 1data_Exp 2Figure 1 data: Condition of experimental seedlings in hummocks with contrasting shrub density and tree canopy in Experiment 2: No Trees - Low Shrub biomass (NTLS), No Trees - High Shrub biomass (NTHS), Present Trees - Low Shrub biomass (PTLS) and Present Trees - High shrub biomass (PTHS) during the warmest growing season (2011) and at the end of the experiment (2013). Seedling condition was defined as: healthy (< 50% of the needles turned yellow or brown) or unhealthy (> 50% of the needles turned yellow or brown). Seedlings were 1 month old at plantation time in the July 2010.Table 1_environmental conditions_Exp 1Table 1 data: Environmental conditions and vegetation characteristics in hummocks (circular and bands) and lawns for Experiment 1. Water table depth below surface is an average for the four growing seasons (2010-2013)Table 2_ photosynthesis data_Exp 1Table 2 photosynthesis data: Photosynthesis rates for experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) versus adjacent lawns for Experiment 1.Table 2_seedling responses_Exp 1Table 2 data: Responses of experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) versus adjacent lawns for Experiment 1 after 4 growing seasons. ST: Seeds inserted on top of moss; SB: Seeds inserted below moss; Small seedling (1 month old at plantation time); Large seedling (2 months old at plantation time). Emergence = % of planted seeds emerged after 1 year. Condition = % healthy seedlings. Stem growth corresponds to vertical stem growth for germinating (ST and SB) seedlings and new stem growth for older (small and large) seedlings.Table 3_regression seedling-environment_Exp 1Table 3 data for generalized linear models assessing the responses of experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) and adjacent lawns for Experiment 1 during the whole experimental period (2010-2013). ST: Seedlings from seeds inserted on top of moss; SB: Seedlings from seeds inserted below moss; Small seedling (1 month old at plantation time); Large seedling (2 months old at plantation time). Condition = % healthy seedlings. Growth = stem growth.Table 4_Environmental data_Exp 2Table 4: Environmental conditions in hummocks with contrasting shrub density and tree canopy in Experiment 2: No Trees - Low Shrub biomass (NTLS), No Trees - High Shrub biomass (NTHS), Present Trees - Low Shrub biomass (PTLS) and Present Trees - High shrub biomass (PTHS).Table 4 and Table S5a_seedling performance_Exp 2Table 4: Seedling performance in hummocks with contrasting shrub density and tree canopy in Experiment 2: No Trees - Low Shrub biomass (NTLS), No Trees - High Shrub biomass (NTHS), Present Trees - Low Shrub biomass (PTLS) and Present Trees - High shrub biomass (PTHS). Seedling emergence, condition and survival from seeds inserted below the moss (SB), and from small planted seedlings.Table S3_cox regression (survival analysis)_Exp 1Table S3: Data for Cox survival analysis for experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) versus adjacent lawns during 2010-2013. ST: Seedlings from seeds inserted on top of moss; SB: Seedlings from seeds inserted below moss; Small seedling (1 month old, 10 cm tall at plantation time); Large seedling (2 months old, 30 cm tall at plantation time).Table S4_ regression seedling-environment 2011_Exp 1Table S4: Data for generalized linear models assessing the responses of experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) and adjacent lawns for Experiment 1 in 2011. Small seedling (1 month old, 10 cm tall at plantation time); Large seedling (2 months old, 30 cm tall at plantation time). Condition = % healthy seedlings. Growth = stem growth. Boreal ecosystems are warming roughly twice as fast as the global average, resulting in woody expansion that could further speed up the climate warming. Boreal peatbogs are waterlogged systems that store more than 30% of the global soil carbon. Facilitative effects of shrubs and trees on the establishment of new individuals could increase tree cover with profound consequences for the structure and functioning of boreal peatbogs, carbon sequestration and climate. We conducted two field experiments in boreal peatbogs to assess the mechanisms that explain tree seedling recruitment and to estimate the strength of positive feedbacks between shrubs and trees. We planted seeds and seedlings of Pinus sylvestris in microsites with contrasting water-tables and woody cover and manipulated both shrub canopy and root competition. We monitored seedling emergence, growth and survival for up to four growing seasons and assessed how seedling responses related to abiotic and biotic conditions. We found that tree recruitment is more successful in drier topographical microsites with deeper water-tables. On these hummocks, shrubs have both positive and negative effects on tree seedling establishment. Shrub cover improved tree seedling condition, growth and survival during the warmest growing season. In turn, higher tree basal area correlates positively with soil nutrient availability, shrub biomass and abundance of tree juveniles. Synthesis. Our results suggest that shrubs facilitate tree colonization of peatbogs which further increases shrub growth. These facilitative effects seem to be stronger under warmer conditions suggesting that a higher frequency of warmer and dry summers may lead to stronger positive interactions between shrubs and trees that could eventually facilitate a shift from moss to tree-dominated systems.

Suitability maps (raster format: geotiff) of Fraxinus excelsior, computed using the ForestFocus European dataset of species presence/absence. The adopted suitability model estimates the optimal environmental conditions for European tree species under present and future climates. Available years: 2000, 2020, 2050, 2080. For year 2000 the observed (WorldClim) climate conditions have been used. For years 2020, 2050, 2080 the climate conditions simulated for the climate change scenarios A2 and B2 have been used (by means of the climate models CCCMA, CSIRO, HANDCM3 and of an ensemble model of them).

Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N–20°N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain.