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AbstractA better understanding of how climate affects growth in tree species is essential for improved predictions of forest dynamics under climate change. Long-term climate averages (mean climate) and short-term deviations from these averages (anomalies) both influence tree growth, but the rarity of long-term data integrating climatic gradients with tree censuses has so far limited our understanding of their respective role, especially in tropical systems. Here, we combined 49 years of growth data for 509 tree species across 23 tropical rainforest plots along a climatic gradient to examine how tree growth responds to both climate means and anomalies, and how species functional traits mediate these tree growth responses to climate. We showed that short-term, anomalous increases in atmospheric evaporative demand and solar radiation consistently reduced tree growth. Drier forests and fast-growing species were more sensitive to water stress anomalies. In addition, species traits related to water use and photosynthesis partly explained differences in growth sensitivity to both long-term and short-term climate variations. Our study demonstrates that both climate means and anomalies shape tree growth in tropical forests, and that species traits can be leveraged to understand these demographic responses to climate change, offering a promising way forward to forecast tropical forest dynamics under different climate trajectories.

Shrub encroachment influences several ecosystem services in drylands worldwide. Yet, commonly used strategies to reduce encroachment show a low medium-term success, calling for a better understanding of its causes. Previous works identified multiple drivers responsible for this phenomenon, including anthropogenic and environmental causes. However, the relative effect of climate, topography and edaphic factors on shrub encroachment is not fully understood nor has been properly quantified in Mediterranean Basin drylands. Also, understanding how these drivers lead to changes in plant communities' functional traits associated to shrub encroachment is crucial, considering traits influence ecosystem processes and associated ecosystem services. Here, we studied the understory of a Mediterranean dryland ecosystem composed of savanna-like Holm-oak woodlands, along a regional climatic gradient. We specifically assessed (i) how climatic, topographic and edaphic factors influence understory relative shrub cover (RSC) and (ii) their direct and indirect effects (via RSC) on plant functional traits. We studied the mean and diversity of 12 functional traits related to plant regeneration, establishment, and dispersal, at the community-level. We found that, under similar low-intensity land use, topographic and edaphic factors, namely slope variations and soil C:N ratio, were the most important predictors of shrub encroachment, determining communities' functional characteristics. Climate, namely summer precipitation, had a much lesser influence. Our model explained 52% of the variation in relative shrub cover. Climate had a stronger effect on a set of functional traits weakly involved in shrub encroachment, related to flowering and dispersal strategies. We show that shrub encroachment is largely predicted by topo-edaphic factors in Mediterranean drylands subject to conventional low-intensity land use. Hence, management strategies to reduce encroachment need to take these drivers into account for efficient forecasting and higher cost-effectiveness. Our results suggest that climate change might not greatly impact shrub encroachment in the Mediterranean Basin, but may affect functional structure and reduce functional diversity of plant communities, thus affecting ecosystem functioning.

Abstract. This paper aims to assess the spatial variability in the response of CO2 exchange to irradiance across the Arctic tundra during peak season using light response curve (LRC) parameters. This investigation allows us to better understand the future response of Arctic tundra under climatic change. Peak season data were collected during different years (between 1998 and 2010) using the micrometeorological eddy covariance technique from 12 circumpolar Arctic tundra sites, in the range of 64–74° N. The LRCs were generated for 14 days with peak net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using an NEE–irradiance model. Parameters from LRCs represent site-specific traits and characteristics describing the following: (a) NEE at light saturation (Fcsat), (b) dark respiration (Rd), (c) light use efficiency (α), (d) NEE when light is at 1000 μmol m−2 s−1 (Fc1000), (e) potential photosynthesis at light saturation (Psat) and (f) the light compensation point (LCP). Parameterization of LRCs was successful in predicting CO2 flux dynamics across the Arctic tundra. We did not find any trends in LRC parameters across the whole Arctic tundra but there were indications for temperature and latitudinal differences within sub-regions like Russia and Greenland. Together, leaf area index (LAI) and July temperature had a high explanatory power of the variance in assimilation parameters (Fcsat, Fc1000 and Psat, thus illustrating the potential for upscaling CO2 exchange for the whole Arctic tundra. Dark respiration was more variable and less correlated to environmental drivers than were assimilation parameters. This indicates the inherent need to include other parameters such as nutrient availability, substrate quantity and quality in flux monitoring activities.

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.

This study uses cetacean sighting data, acquired via a citizen science programme, to update distributions and spatial trends of whales and dolphins in waters around the Svalbard Archipelago during the period 2005–2019. Distributions, based on kernel density estimates, from an early period (2005–2019) and a recent period (2015–19) were compared to identify potential shifts in distribution in this area, which is experiencing rapid warming and concomitant sea-ice losses. Among the three Arctic endemic cetaceans, white whales (Delphinapterus leucas, also known as beluga) had a stable, coastal distribution throughout the study, whereas narwhals (Monodon monoceros) and bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) were observed only north of the archipelago, but with increasing frequency during the recent period. White-beaked dolphins (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) had a stable distribution along the continental shelf break, west and south of Svalbard. Sperm whale observations shifted from west of Bjørnøya during the early period to being concentrated around the north end of Prins Karls Forland, west of Spitsbergen during the recent period. The four summer-resident baleen whales—blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus), fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) and minke whales (Balaenoptera acutorostrata)—have shifted their distributions from the continental shelf break west of Spitsbergen during the early period into fjords and coastal areas during the recent period. These changes coincide with increased inflows of Atlantic Water into the fjords along the west coast of Spitsbergen and across the north of the archipelago.