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The science of statistics contributes to the development and application of tools for the design, analysis, and interpretation of empirical medical studies [...]

The outbreak of SARS-COV-2 disease 2019 (COVID-19) abruptly changed the patterns in electricity consumption, challenging the system operations of forecasting and balancing supply and demand. This is due to the mitigation measures that include lockdown and Work from Home (WFH), which decreased the aggregated demand and remarkably altered its profile. Here, we characterise these changes with various quantitative markers and compare it with pre-COVID-19 business-as-usual data using Great Britain (GB) as a case study. The ripple effects on the generation portfolio, system frequency, forecasting accuracy and imbalance pricing are also analysed. An energy data extraction and pre-processing pipeline that can be used in a variety of similar studies is also presented. Analysis of the GB demand data during the March 2020 lockdown indicates that a shift to WFH will result to a net benefit for flexible stakeholders, such as consumer on variable tariffs. Furthermore, the analysis illustrates a need for faster and more frequent balancing actions, as a result of the increased share of renewable energy in the generation mix. This new equilibrium of energy demand and supply will require a redesign of the existing balancing mechanisms as well as the longer-term power system planning strategies.

The following study sought to examine the social impact of a social enterprise mental health services model by assessing its impact on service accessibility and mental health stigma. A novel approach to case study – a mixed methods design was developed by collecting data from service users, counsellors, and community members of a social enterprise in Toronto, Ontario, using qualitative interviews and the Mental Health Knowledge Schedule (MAKS) survey. Findings show how the social enterprise increases service access and challenges mental health stigma by engaging in a variety of activities, including providing low--cost counselling, diversifying services, offering a positive and safe non--clinical environment, and engaging with the public directly by utilizing a storefront model. As a result of data triangulation analysis, common themes and discrepancies between respondent groups are identified and discussed. No significant relationships were found between mental health stigma and community member demographic characteristics. Insights on replication of this social impact assessment model are discussed.

Abstract Hydropower investment is a priority in many developing countries, as a means to increase electrification rates and promote national development. However, neglect of dam-affected people's needs, can make them vulnerable to the multifaceted impacts of such projects. Using the case of Cambodia's first large dam, the Kamchay dam, this paper reveals social priorities of affected communities and institutional actors linked to environmental and social implications of large hydropower projects using a preference ranking method. Qualitative research revealed concerns among dam-affected communities which included energy access, livelihood changes, environmental impacts, access to natural resources and compensation. Results also reveal divergence between national and local priorities, which in turn brings about an unequal distribution of costs and benefits of the Kamchay Dam between urban and rural areas. The paper provides recommendations to policy-makers, NGOs and international organizations regarding governance issues, consultation processes and mitigation measures.

Abstract It is generally accepted that governments, municipalities, businesses and citizens alike have a role to play in transitioning towards a circular economy (CE). Yet most academic and policy discussions of CE revolve around technological solutions and business models. Although CE also means significant changes to ways of living, these aspects of CE are barely addressed. The citizen role is traditionally assumed to be that of a consumer or user of the newly developed solutions, while also following the guidelines for sorting and recycling. Little is known about how citizens envision being part of the CE, and what skills and competences are relevant for CE. Our study addresses this gap by exploring the perceptions of young adults in Finland on how CE reflects into their everyday lives. Our dataset consists of 249 responses from high school students in Finland to open-ended questions regarding CE. The results highlight that young adults in Finland strongly associate CE with recycling, waste sorting and re-selling/buying second-hand, which is in line with the conventional roles of efficient recyclers and consumers. Although CE harbors wider potential for more active citizen roles related to repair, maintenance and upcycling, these aspects are often overlooked in favor of more familiar lifestyles. Building on the 5R framework for CE and emerging themes from student responses, we bring forward the new roles of upcycler, thrifter, expert/learner, giver/benefactor and conservationist. Supporting these emerging roles is an opportunity for cooperation between young adults, other citizen groups, cities, policy makers and businesses, and a key for jointly advancing the transition to CE.

Abstract Around the world, cities are creating local climate change mitigation strategies and combining strengths in international efforts. In addition to making the strategies, it is important to follow, how they work in practice. The aim of the study is to examine, how climate change mitigation policies and other events affected the consumption-based household carbon footprints in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area (HMA) from 2006 until 2012. The cities of the HMA launched an ambitious climate change mitigation strategy in 2007. Furthermore, the study analyses the changes in the carbon footprints of six different types of urban zone within the HMA: the central pedestrian zone, the fringe of the central pedestrian zone, intensive public transport zone, public transport zone, car zone and the pedestrian zones of subcentres. The results of the study reveal that the average carbon footprint decreased 7% from 2006 to 2012, despite 1% increase in expenditure, which is encouraging. Emissions caused by housing energy consumption and motor fuel consumption decreased the most. Among the urban zones, public transport zone and car zone, which are the two outermost zones of the HMA, had the strongest emission reductions. Cleaner electricity and the improved energy efficiency of buildings had a strong effect. The regression analysis of the study suggests that the central pedestrian zone and the car zone, the two most affluent zones of the HMA, have higher carbon footprints than all the other zones have between them. However, this is only true when income is controlled, not when expenditure is controlled. The economic crisis in 2008, and changes in consumption behaviour because of it, seem to explain the result. The reduction of the average carbon footprint in the HMA was not only due to steered mitigation actions. Increased housing costs seem to have contributed to the decline of consumption-based emissions. The results of the study suggest that to achieve the ambitious international, national and local climate change mitigation targets, stronger measures are needed.

Alcohol intoxication has a dangerous effect on human health and is often associated with a risk of catastrophic injuries and alcohol-related crimes. A demand to address this problem adheres to the design of new sensor systems for the real-time monitoring of exhaled breath. We introduce a new sensor system based on a porous hydrophilic layer of submicron silica particles (SiO2 SMPs) placed on a one-dimensional photonic crystal made of Ta2O5/SiO2 dielectric layers whose operation relies on detecting changes in the position of surface wave resonance during capillary condensation in pores. To make the active layer of SiO2 SMPs, we examine the influence of electrostatic interactions of media, particles, and the surface of the crystal influenced by buoyancy, gravity force, and Stokes drag force in the frame of the dip-coating preparation method. We evaluate the sensing performance toward biomarkers such as acetone, ammonia, ethanol, and isopropanol and test sensor system capabilities for alcohol intoxication assessment. We have found this sensor to respond to all tested analytes in a broad range of concentrations. By processing the sensor signals by principal component analysis, we selectively determined the analytes. We demonstrated the excellent performance of our device for alcohol intoxication assessment in real-time.

Economic models suggest that in many cases, market leakage rates of greenhouse gas abatement reach the two-digit percentage range. Consequently, the Marrakesh Accords require Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to account for leakage. Despite this, most project proponents neglect market leakage for their project, because the influence of an individual project on market prices seems to be negligible. Insufficient leakage accounting is facilitated by a lack of theories and applicable proposals regarding the quantification and attribution of leakage effects. The aim of this paper is to develop a proposal for the attribution of market leakage effects to CDM projects. To this purpose, we identify the transmission mechanisms for CDM project leakage, investigate the current practice of leakage accounting, and analyse alternative attribution methods for leakage effects that are transmitted through price changes. We find that project-specific approaches must fail to take account of such leakage effects. Consequently, we propose to estimate aggregate market leakage effects and attribute them proportionally to individual projects. Our proposal is based on commodity-specific leakage factors which can be applied by project developers to any emission reductions that are associated with a project's leakage-relevant demand or supply changes. The proposal is conservative, equitable, incentive compatible and applicable at manageable costs.