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# Coral reef state influences resilience to acute climate-mediated disturbances\_Table S1 [https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.rfj6q57gz](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.rfj6q57gz) The dataset provides a summary of all publications included in the analysis for this study and the key statistics obtained from the studies and used in the analyses. The dataset includes details about the publication, spatial identifiers (e.g. realm, province, ecoregion) unique site code, information on the disturbance type and timing, the pre-and post-disturbance coral cover, the 5-year annual recovery rate, the recovery shape and recovery completeness classifications. Please see details Methods in the journal article "Coral reef state influences resilience to acute climate-mediated disturbances" as published in Global Ecology and Biogeography. ## Description of the data and file structure Each column provides the following information: | Column | Detail | | ------ | ------ | | Realm | All studies were assigned to an ‘ecoregion’, ‘province’ and ‘realm’ based on their spatial location in Spalding et al. (2007)’s spatial classification system for coastal and shelf waters. | | Province | All studies were assigned to an ‘ecoregion’, ‘province’ and ‘realm’ based on their spatial location in Spalding et al. (2007)’s spatial classification system for coastal and shelf waters. | | Ecoregion | All studies were assigned to an ‘ecoregion’, ‘province’ and ‘realm’ based on their spatial location in Spalding et al. (2007)’s spatial classification system for coastal and shelf waters. | | Unique study identifier | Unique identifiers for the lowest sampling unit in the dataset. In cases where there were data for different regions, reefs, islands/atolls, sites, reef zones, depths, and/or multiple disturbances within a publication or time-series, data from these publications were divided into separate ‘studies’. | | Publication/Dataset | Unique identifiers for the publication or dataset (generally the surname of the first author followed by the year of publication). | | Publication title | Title of the publication or dataset from which the data were sourced. | | Publication year | Year the publication from the which the data were sourced was published. | | Country/Territory | Name of the country or location from which the data came. | | Site latitude | Latitude of the study site from where the data came. | | Site longitude | Longitude of the study site from where the data came. | | Disturbance type | Classification of disturbance: Temperature stress, Cyclone/ severe storm, Runoff or Multiple. | | Disturbance.year | Year of the disturbance. | | Mean coral cover pre-disturbance | Pre-disturbance coral cover as extracted from the publication or dataset as the closest data point prior to disturbance. If there is an NA value in this column then there was no pre-disturbance data available and a measure of impact was not calculated. | | Mean coral cover post-disturbance | Post-disturbance coral cover as extracted from the publication or dataset as the closest data point prior to disturbance. If there is an NA value in this column then there was no pre-disturbance data available and a measure of impact was not calculated. | | Impact (lnRR) | Impact measure: the log response ratio of pre- to post-disturbance percentage coral cover. If there is an NA value in this column then there was no pre-disturbance data available and a measure of impact was not calculated. | | Time-averaged recovery rate | Recovery rate as percentage coral cover per year in the approximate 5-year time window following disturbance. See main Methods text in manuscript for more detail. If there is an NA value in this column then the available time-series following disturbance did not satisfy the criteria for inclusion in the calculation of recovery rate. | | Recovery shape | Recovery shape category: linear, accelerating, decelerating, logistic, flatline or null. If there is an NA value in this column then the available time-series following disturbance did not satisfy the criteria for inclusion in classification of recovery shape. | | Recovery completeness | Recovery completeness category: complete recovery – coral is observed to reach its pre-disturbance coral cover, signs of recovery – a positive trajectory but not reaching pre-disturbance cover in the time period examined, undetermined – no clear pattern in recovery, the null model was the top model, no recovery – the null model was the top model but the linear model had slope and standard error in slope near zero and further decline – the top model had a negative trend. If there is an NA value in this column then the available time-series following disturbance did not satisfy the criteria for inclusion in classification of recovery shape. | | Reference | Source for the data. | ## Sharing/Access information Data was derived from the following sources: **Appendix 1. Full list of references providing the data used in impact and recovery analyses supporting Table S1** Arceo, H. O., Quibilan, M. C., Aliño, P. M., Lim, G., & Licuanan, W. Y. (2001). Coral bleaching in Philippine reefs: Coincident evidences with mesoscale thermal anomalies. Bulletin of Marine Science, 69(2), 579-593. Aronson, R. B., Precht, W. F., Toscano, M. A., & Koltes, K. H. (2002). The 1998 bleaching event and its aftermath on a coral reef in Belize. Marine Biology, 141(3), 435-447. Aronson, R. B., Sebens, K. P., & Ebersole, J. P. (1994). Hurricane Hugo's impact on Salt River submarine canyon, St. Croix, US Virgin Islands. Proceedings of the colloquium on global aspects of coral reefs, Miami, 1993, 189-195. Bahr, K. D., Rodgers, K. S., & Jokiel, P. L. (2017). Impact of three bleaching events on the reef resiliency of Kāne'ohe Bay, Hawai'i. Frontiers in Marine Science, 4(DEC). Baird, A. H., Álvarez-Noriega, M., Cumbo, V. R., Connolly, S. R., Dornelas, M., & Madin, J. S. (2018). Effects of tropical storms on the demography of reef corals. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 606, 29-38. Barranco, L. M., Carriquiry, J. D., Rodríguez-Zaragoza, F. A., Cupul-Magaña, A. L., Villaescusa, J. A., & Calderón-Aguilera, L. E. (2016). Spatiotemporal variations of live coral cover in the Northern Mesoamerican reef system, Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. Scientia Marina, 80(2), 143-150. Bastidas, C., Bone, D., Croquer, A., Debrot, D., Garcia, E., Humanes, A., . . . Rodríguez, S. (2012). Massive hard coral loss after a severe bleaching event in 2010 at Los Roques, Venezuela. Revista de Biologia Tropical, 60(SUPPL. 1), 29-37. Booth, D. J., & Beretta, G. A. (2002). Changes in a fish assemblage after a coral bleaching event. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 245, 205-212. Brandl, S. J., Emslie, M. J., & Ceccarelli, D. M. (2016). Habitat degradation increases functional originality in highly diverse coral reef fish assemblages. Ecosphere, 7(11). Brown, D., & Edmunds, P. J. (2013). Long-term changes in the population dynamics of the Caribbean hydrocoral Millepora spp. Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology, 441, 62-70. Brown, V. B., Davies, S. A., & Synnot, R. N. (1990). Long-term Monitoring of the Effects of Treated Sewage Effluent on the Intertidal Macroalgal Community Near Cape Schanck, Victoria, Australia. Botanica Marina, 33(1), 85-98. Bruckner, A. W., Coward, G., Bimson, K., & Rattanawongwan, T. (2017). Predation by feeding aggregations of Drupella spp. inhibits the recovery of reefs damaged by a mass bleaching event. Coral Reefs, 36(4), 1181-1187. Burt, J. 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(2016). 27 years of benthic and coral community dynamics on turbid, highly urbanised reefs off Singapore. Scientific Reports, 6. Guillemot, N., Chabanet, P., & Le Pape, O. (2010). Cyclone effects on coral reef habitats in New Caledonia (South Pacific). Coral Reefs, 29(2), 445-453. Guzmán, H. M., & Cortés, J. (2001). Changes in reef community structure after fifteen years of natural disturbances in the Eastern Pacific (Costa Rica). Bulletin of Marine Science, 69(1), 133-149. Guzman, H. M., Cortes, J., Richmond, R. H., & Glynn, P. W. (1987). Effects of "El Nino - Southern oscillation' 1982/83 in the coral reefs at Isla del Cano, Costa Rica. Revista de Biologia Tropical, 35(2), 325-332. Haapkylä, J., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Flavell, M., & Willis, B. L. (2013). Disease outbreaks, bleaching and a cyclone drive changes in coral assemblages on an inshore reef of the Great Barrier Reef. Coral Reefs, 32(3), 815-824. Hagan, A., & Spencer, T. (2008). Reef resilience and change 1998–2007, Alphonse Atoll, Seychelles. Paper presented at the Proc 11th Int Coral Reef Symp. Harii, S., Hongo, C., Ishihara, M., Ide, Y., & Kayanne, H. (2014). Impacts of multiple disturbances on coral communities at Ishigaki Island, Okinawa, Japan, during a 15 year survey. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 509, 171-180. Harrison, H. B., Álvarez-Noriega, M., Baird, A. H., Heron, S. F., MacDonald, C., & Hughes, T. P. (2018). Back-to-back coral bleaching events on isolated atolls in the Coral Sea. Coral Reefs. Holbrook, S. J., Adam, T. C., Edmunds, P. J., Schmitt, R. J., Carpenter, R. C., Brooks, A. J., . . . Briggs, C. J. (2018). Recruitment Drives Spatial Variation in Recovery Rates of Resilient Coral Reefs. Scientific Reports, 8(1). Hongo, C., & Yamano, H. (2013). Species-Specific Responses of Corals to Bleaching Events on Anthropogenically Turbid Reefs on Okinawa Island, Japan, over a 15-year Period (1995-2009). PLoS ONE, 8(4). 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Three decades of coral reef community dynamics in St. John, USVI: A contrast of scleractinians and octocorals. Ecosphere, 8(1). Van Woesik, R., De Vantier, L. M., & Glazebrook, J. S. (1995). Effects of Cyclone "Joy' on nearshore coral communities of the Great Barrier Reef. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 128(1-3), 261-270. Van Woesik, R., Sakai, K., Ganase, A., & Loya, Y. (2011). Revisiting the winners and the losers a decade after coral bleaching. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 434, 67-76. Vercelloni, J., Kayal, M., Chancerelle, Y., & Planes, S. (2019). Exposure, vulnerability, and resiliency of French Polynesian coral reefs to environmental disturbances. Scientific Reports, 9(1). Walsh, W. J. (1983). Stability of a coral reef fish community following a catastrophic storm. Coral Reefs, 2(1), 49-63. Wilkinson, C. (2004). Status of coral reefs of the world: 2004 (Vol. 2). Queensland, Australia: Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network. Wilkinson, C. R., & Souter, D. (2008). Status of Caribbean coral reefs after bleaching and hurricanes in 2005. Wismer, S., Tebbett, S. B., Streit, R. P., & Bellwood, D. R. (2019). Spatial mismatch in fish and coral loss following 2016 mass coral bleaching. Science of the Total Environment, 650, 1487-1498. Woolsey, E., Bainbridge, S. J., Kingsford, M. J., & Byrne, M. (2012). Impacts of cyclone Hamish at One Tree Reef: Integrating environmental and benthic habitat data. Marine Biology, 159(4), 793-803. Aim: Understand the interplay between resistance and recovery on coral reefs, and investigate dependence on pre- and post-disturbance states, to inform generalisable reef resilience theory across large spatial and temporal scales. Location: Tropical coral reefs globally. Time period: 1966 to 2017. Major taxa studied: Scleratinian hard corals. Methods: We conducted a literature search to compile a global dataset of total coral cover before and after acute storms, temperature stress, and coastal runoff from flooding events. We used meta-regression to identify variables that explained significant variation in disturbance impact, including disturbance type, year, depth, and pre-disturbance coral cover. We further investigated the influence of these same variables, as well as post-disturbance coral cover and disturbance impact, on recovery rate. We examined the shape of recovery, assigning qualitatively distinct, ecologically relevant, population growth trajectories: linear, logistic, logarithmic (decelerating), and a second-order quadratic (accelerating). Results: We analysed 427 disturbance impacts and 117 recovery trajectories. Accelerating and logistic were the most common recovery shapes, underscoring non-linearities and recovery lags. A complex but meaningful relationship between the state of a reef pre- and post-disturbance, disturbance impact magnitude, and recovery rate was identified. Fastest recovery rates were predicted for intermediate to large disturbance impacts, but a decline in this rate was predicted when more than ~75% of pre-disturbance cover was lost. We identified a shifting baseline, with declines in both pre-and post-disturbance coral cover over the 50 year study period. Main conclusions: We breakdown the complexities of coral resilience, showing interplay between resistance and recovery, as well as dependence on both pre- and post-disturbance states, alongside documenting a chronic decline in these states. This has implications for predicting coral reef futures and implementing actions to enhance resilience. The dataset provides a summary of all studies included in the analysis and the key statistics obtained from the studies and used in the analyses for the manuscript entitled "Coral reef state influences resilience to acute climate-mediated disturbances" as published in Global Ecology and Biogeography. The dataset includes details about the publication, spatial identifiers (e.g. realm, province, ecoregion) unique site code, information on the disturbance type and timing, the pre-and post-disturbance coral cover, the 5-year annual recovery rate, the recovery shape and recovery completeness classifications. Please see details Methods in the journal article "Coral reef state influences resilience to acute climate-mediated disturbances" as published in Global Ecology and Biogeography.

Methane emissions from aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems play a crucial role in global warming, which is particularly affecting high-latitude ecosystems. As major contributors to methane emissions in natural environments, the microbial communities involved in methane production and oxidation deserve a special attention. Microbial diversity and activity are expected to be strongly affected by the already observed (and further predicted) temperature increase in high-latitude ecosystems, eventually resulting in disrupted feedback methane emissions. The METHANOBASE project has been designed to investigate the intricate relations between microbial diversity and methane emissions in Arctic, Subarctic and Subantarctic ecosystems, under natural (baseline) conditions and in response to simulated temperature increments. We report here a small subunit ribosomal RNA (16S rRNA) analysis of lake, peatland and mineral soil ecosystems.

Project: IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Supplementary data sets for the Sixth Assessment Report - For the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR6) input/source and intermediate datasets underlying the AR6 were collected and long-term archived. This project compliments CMIP6 data subset and snapshot analyzed for the WGI AR6. Summary: This data set contains detailed elements the sea level projections associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. In particular, it contains relative sea level projections that exclude the background term (representing primarily land subsidence or uplift). It includes probability distributions for all the workflows described in AR6 WGI 9.6.3.2. P-boxes derived from these distributions are available in the sister entry 'IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_PBox'. These data may be of use for users who want to substitute their own estimates of the background term. Regional projections can also be accessed through the NASA/IPCC Sea Level Projections Tool at https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool. See https://zenodo.org/communities/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections for additional related data sets.

Indicators of economic sustainability obtained for the 8 systems of LTS studied. Monoc. = monoculture; sub-trop. = subtropical; IMTA = integrated multi trophic aquaculture; “-“ = no data.

Salmonids are of immense socio-economic importance in much of the world but are threatened by climate change. This has generated a substantial literature documenting effects of climate variation on salmonid productivity in freshwater ecosystems, but there has been no global quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to gain quantitative insight into key factors shaping the effects of climate on salmonid productivity, ultimately collecting 1,321 correlations from 156 studies, representing 23 species across 24 countries. Fisher’s Z was used as the standardized effect size, and a series of weighted mixed-effects models were compared to identify covariates that best explained variation in effects. Patterns in climate effects were complex, and were driven by spatial (latitude, elevation), temporal (time-period, age-class), and biological (range, habitat type, anadromy) variation within and among study populations. These trends were often consistent with predictions based on salmonid thermal tolerances. Namely, warming and decreased precipitation tended to reduce productivity when high temperatures challenged upper thermal limits, while opposite patterns were common when cold temperatures limited productivity. Overall, variable climate impacts on salmonids suggest that future declines in some locations may be counterbalanced by gains in others. In particular, we suggest that future warming should (1) increase salmonid productivity at high latitudes and elevations (especially >60° and >1,500m), (2) reduce productivity in populations experiencing hotter and dryer growing season conditions, (3) favor non-native over native salmonids, and (4) impact lentic populations less negatively than lotic ones. These patterns should help conservation and management organizations identify populations most vulnerable to climate change, which can then be prioritized for protective measures. Our framework enables broad inferences about future productivity that can inform decision-making under climate change for salmonids and other taxa, but more widespread, standardized, and hypothesis-driven research is needed to expand current knowledge. See README document and R code. See README document.

This dataset holds information on data and methods for the Melvin et al., 2016 publication entitled Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation. The abstract for this paper is as follows: Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are becoming an important tool for marine conservation and management. Yet while there is an increasing diversity and volume of marine biodiversity data for training SDMs, little practical guidance is available on how to leverage distinct data types to build robust models. We explored the effect of different data types on the fit, performance and predictive ability of SDMs by comparing models trained with four data types for a heavily exploited pelagic fish, the blue shark (Prionace glauca), in the Northwest Atlantic: two fishery-dependent (conventional mark-recapture tags, fisheries observer records) and two fishery-independent (satellite-linked electronic tags, pop-up archival tags). We found that all four data types can result in robust models, but differences among spatial predictions highlighted the need to consider ecological realism in model selection and interpretation regardless of data type. Differences among models were primarily attributed to biases in how each data type, and the associated representation of absences, sampled the environment and summarized the resulting species distributions. Outputs from model ensembles and a model trained on all pooled data both proved effective for combining inferences across data types and provided more ecologically realistic predictions than individual models. Our results provide valuable guidance for practitioners developing SDMs. With increasing access to diverse data sources, future work should further develop truly integrative modeling approaches that can explicitly leverage strengths of individual data types while statistically accounting for limitations, such as sampling biases.  Please see the README document ("README.md") and the accompanying published article: Braun, C. D., M. C. Arostegui, N. Farchadi, M. Alexander, P. Afonso, A. Allyn, S. J. Bograd, S. Brodie, D. P. Crear, E. F. Culhane, T. H. Curtis, E. L. Hazen, A. Kerney, N. Lezama-Ochoa, K. E. Mills, D. Pugh, N. Queiroz, J. D. Scott, G. B. Skomal, D. W. Sims, S. R. Thorrold, H. Welch, R. Young-Morse, R. Lewison. In press. Building use-inspired species distribution models: using multiple data types to examine and improve model performance. Ecological Applications. Accepted. DOI: < article DOI will be added when it is assigned >

Whether marine fish will grow differently in future high pCO2 environments remains surprisingly uncertain. Long-term and whole-life cycle effects are particularly unknown, because such experiments are logistically challenging, space demanding, exclude long-lived species, and require controlled, restricted feeding regimes—otherwise increased consumption could mask potential growth effects. Here, we report on repeated, long-term, food-controlled experiments to rear large populations (>4,000 individuals total) of the experimental model and ecologically important forage fish Menidia menidia (Atlantic silverside) under contrasting temperature (17°, 24°, and 28°C) and pCO2 conditions (450 vs. 2,200 μatm) from fertilization to a third of this annual species' life span. Quantile analyses of trait distributions showed mostly negative effects of high pCO2 on long-term growth. At 17°C and 28°C, but not at 24°C, high pCO2 fish were significantly shorter [17°C: -5 to -9%; 28°C: -3%] and weighed less [17°C: -6 to -18%; 28°C: -8%] compared to ambient pCO2 fish. Reductions in fish weight were smaller than in length, which is why high pCO2 fish at 17°C consistently exhibited a higher Fulton's k (weight/length ratio). Notably, it took more than 100 days of rearing for statistically significant length differences to emerge between treatment populations, showing that cumulative, long-term CO2 effects could exist elsewhere but are easily missed by short experiments. Long-term rearing had another benefit: it allowed sexing the surviving fish, thereby enabling rare sex-specific analyses of trait distributions under contrasting CO2 environments. We found that female silversides grew faster than males, but there was no interaction between CO2 and sex, indicating that males and females were similarly affected by high pCO2. Because Atlantic silversides are known to exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination, we also analyzed sex ratios, revealing no evidence for CO2-dependent sex determination in this species. In order to allow full comparability with other ocean acidification data sets, the R package seacarb (Gattuso et al, 2020) was used to compute a complete and consistent set of carbonate system variables, as described by Nisumaa et al. (2010). In this dataset the original values were archived in addition with the recalculated parameters (see related PI). The date of carbonate chemistry calculation by seacarb is 2020-12-25.

Biomass of ulvoid algae in North Bay, Blakely Island, Washington by species composition.