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  • Energy Research
  • 13. Climate action
  • 6. Clean water
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  • Authors: Salgueiro, Emília; Magalhães, Vítor; Rebotim, Andreia; Matos, Lélia; +4 Authors

    The CARBO-ACID research cruise (EUROFLEETS+ SEA02_10) was carried out on the RV Ramón Margalef between August 2nd and August 11st, with departing from Vigo – Spain and ending in Lisbon – Portugal. The main objective of this cruise was to collect data and samples to study the potential effects of ocean acidification on carbonate marine organisms (coccolithophores, pteropods, planktonic and benthic foraminifera, and corals) along the Iberian margin. With this objective, oceanographic data and water samples, plankton, cold-water corals and sediment samples were collected during an upwelling season, along two transects coinciding with the two persistent upwelling filaments off the Iberia Margin: the Cape Finisterra and the Cape Roca. In this dataset is guiven all the acquired data recollected onboad. During the CARBO-ACID cruise we did a total of 7 stations, 4 stations along the Cape Finisterra transect (from W to E: CA3, CA2, CA7, CA8) and 3 stations at the Cape Roca (from W to E: CA6, CA5, CA4) transect (Fig). At each station we usually started with a multibeam survey, a CTD and Rosette cast. These initial operations allowed to identify the different water masses present in this area, characterize their physical properties and to recover seawater samples at specific depth levels. The seawater samples were onboard subsampled, preserved in cold conditions or with chemicals and/ or filtered for several further analysis in the shore-based laboratories: DNA, chlorophyll, fitoplankton, coccolithophores, pH, alkalinity, stable isotopic composition, trace elements concentration and Suspend Particulate Matter. Subsequently to these operations, at each station, two vertical tows with a plankton multinet (with 5 nets) were done on the top 700 m of the water column to sample the planktonic communities of the different water depths. After this, sediment samples were recovered with a box-corer to study the past oceanographic conditions, between the pre-industrial Era and the Present, with multi-proxies used in paleoceanography and sedimentology. A total of 10 box-cores were recollected and each of them was onboard sub-sampled for eDNA, enzymes and benthic foraminifera. Fifteen shipek grab samples were recollected at the Fontanelas seamount (Estremadura Spur), station CA6, to characterize the sedimentary cover and to evaluate the presence of deep cold-water corals. Preliminary results show that the stations CA7, CA8 and CA4, located close to the coast, as expected, are the most influenced by the coastal upwelling, exhibiting colder surface water, higher values of fluorescence, and more zooplankton content reflecting higher phyto-zooplankton concentrations, as typical of the upwelling waters. At station CA4 temperature was higher and fluorescence showed lower values, indicative of less phytoplankton, and interpreted as indicating a different upwelling source water from that upwelled further north. Based on the CTD data, the Cape Roca transect is more influenced by the subtropical East North Atlantic Central Water (ENACWst), while the Cape Finisterra transect is more under the influence of the subpolar branch (ENACWsp). Seafloor sediment samples showed significant differences between the stations. Along the northern transect (Cape Finisterra) the seafloor sediments show an increase in grain size from the offshore to the coast. The offshore stations CA3 and CA2 revealed finer grained sediments, CA8 were composed of coarser sand and the station CA7, the shallowest station 77 m, presented the sediment composed mainly of shell fragments and coarse grain sand. Along the southern transect (Cape Roca), the offshore station CA6 (Fontanelas seamount) has coarser sandy sediments with rock clasts and cold-water coral fragments, and the stations CA5 and CA4 with fine sand to muddy sediments. The detailed CA6 bathymetry allowed to verify the existence of small plateaus on the slope of the Fontanelas seamount, where the fossil cold-water corals fragments were found, suggesting that this area is a very interesting system deserving further study with a ROV, and to characterize the corals fields and verify if there are live corals. These recollected data and samples will allow not only to reconstruct the pH variability under different environmental conditions, but also to estimate the biogeochemical changes along the coastal ocean waters as the anthropogenic influence increases. These results will contribute to better understand and model the effects on the biota under the future expected oceans pH changes.

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    Authors: Amadou Thierno Gaye; Xavier Capet; Juliette Mignot; Adama Sylla; +1 Authors

    Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N–20°N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain.

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    Climate Dynamics
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    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climate Dynamics
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    Authors: Chia, E.L.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Bele, M.Y.; +1 Authors

    In Cameroon, as in other countries of the Congo basin region, policy processes and activities related to climate change have been hitherto geared mostly towards mitigation and related questions, with limited concern about adaptation issues. However, the increasing vulnerability of Cameroon to climate variability and change makes adaptation significant to its national climate-change policy. Nonetheless, it remains a challenge to make both adaptation and mitigation occupy the same policy space in Cameroon. This paper builds partly on studies carried out in two community forest carbon initiatives in the southern rainforest of Cameroon. It also argues, supported by existing literature on adaptation and mitigation, that mitigation activities have the potential to produce adaptation outcomes; a situation which avoids duplication of efforts and waste of financial and technical resources, if synergetic options are anticipated and planned. However, whether such integrated approaches succeed and are subsequently reflected in national-level climate policy depends on how actors across different sectors and at different levels engage and carry out their roles. The paper discusses these roles and how they can support each other in pursuing integrated initiatives – a context which is vital for Cameroon.

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    Climate and Development
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu; Chunjing Qiu; Philippe Ciais; Rona L. Thompson; +35 Authors

    Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

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    https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2...
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    Authors: Edith Garot; Thierry Joët; Marie‐Christine Combes; Dany Severac; +1 Authors

    Summary Past climatic fluctuations have played a major role in shaping the current plant biodiversity. Although harbouring an exceptional biota, oceanic islands have received little attention in studies on species demographic history and past vegetation patterns. We investigated the impact of past climatic changes on the effective population size of a tree (Coffea mauritiana) that is endemic to Reunion Island, located in the south‐western Indian Ocean (SWIO). Demographic changes were inferred using summary statistics calculated from genomic data. Using ecological niche modelling and the current distribution of genetic diversity, the paleodistribution of the species was also assessed. A reduction in the effective population size of C. mauritiana during the last glaciation maximum was inferred. The distribution of the species was reduced on the western side of the island, due to low rainfall. It appeared that a major reduction in rainfall and a slight temperature decrease prevailed in the SWIO. Our findings indicated that analyses on the current patterns of intraspecific genetic variations can efficiently contribute to past climatic changes characterisation in remote islands. Identifying area with higher resilience in oceanic islands could provide guidance in forest management and conservation faced to the global climate change.

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    New Phytologist
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    Article . 2020
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      New Phytologist
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    Authors: Li, Jun; Colombier, Michel; Giraud, Pierre-Noël;

    Abstract This paper investigates the optimal choice of building energy efficiency (BEE) standard in the context of centralised urban district heating system in northern China. By employing a techno-economic analysis approach, we demonstrate that the current BEE standard implemented in the Chinese cities should be tightened further in order to achieve a socially optimal level. Without considering the externality costs associated with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, current BEE standards need to be upgraded to the equivalent level of French RT2005 standard coupled with a properly designed district coal-fired Combined Heat and Power (CHP). In contrast, the equivalent efficiency standard of Swedish building code is preferably to be implemented in the case of explicit carbon emission restriction as long as the marginal cost of carbon emission (carbon price) is sufficiently high. The fuel-switching policy (from coal to natural gas) in the urban district heating system would result in significant increase in overall costs if the BEE upgrade is not taken into account simultaneously. It is also found that BEE improvements in northern Chinese cities are more cost-effective than investing in low-carbon technologies such as wind power or Carbon Capture and storage in the EU and US with regard to CO2 emissions mitigation.

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    Energy Policy
    Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
    License: Elsevier TDM
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      Energy Policy
      Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Seferian, Roland;

    Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-ESM2-1.amip' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CNRM-ESM2-1 climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: TACTIC_v2, atmos: Arpege 6.3 (T127; Gaussian Reduced with 24572 grid points in total distributed over 128 latitude circles (with 256 grid points per latitude circle between 30degN and 30degS reducing to 20 grid points per latitude circle at 88.9degN and 88.9degS); 91 levels; top level 78.4 km), atmosChem: REPROBUS-C_v2, land: Surfex 8.0c, ocean: Nemo 3.6 (eORCA1, tripolar primarily 1deg; 362 x 294 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), ocnBgchem: Pisces 2.s, seaIce: Gelato 6.1. The model was run by the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse 31057, France), CERFACS (Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse 31057, France) (CNRM-CERFACS) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

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    World Data Center for Climate
    Dataset . 2023
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      World Data Center for Climate
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    Authors: Frédéric Chevallier; Pierre Regnier; Julia Pongratz; Atul K. Jain; +30 Authors

    Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights on the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions, due to different definitions and component fluxes reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers, that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definition and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to the globe and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, for the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims as an update of regional carbon budgets over the last two decades based on observations, for 10 regions covering the globe, with a better harmonization that the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversions results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes and land use fluxes.

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    https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-20...
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    Geoscientific Model Development (GMD)
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    Geoscientific Model Development (GMD)
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    Wageningen Staff Publications
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      Wageningen Staff Publications
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    Authors: Hermann Behling; John Carson; Bronwen S. Whitney; William D. Gosling; +12 Authors

    Abstract. An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation–climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America – 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

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    Authors: Seferian, Roland;

    Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.C4MIP.CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-ESM2-1' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CNRM-ESM2-1 climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: TACTIC_v2, atmos: Arpege 6.3 (T127; Gaussian Reduced with 24572 grid points in total distributed over 128 latitude circles (with 256 grid points per latitude circle between 30degN and 30degS reducing to 20 grid points per latitude circle at 88.9degN and 88.9degS); 91 levels; top level 78.4 km), atmosChem: REPROBUS-C_v2, land: Surfex 8.0c, ocean: Nemo 3.6 (eORCA1, tripolar primarily 1deg; 362 x 294 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), ocnBgchem: Pisces 2.s, seaIce: Gelato 6.1. The model was run by the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse 31057, France), CERFACS (Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse 31057, France) (CNRM-CERFACS) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

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    World Data Center for Climate
    Dataset . 2023
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  • Authors: Salgueiro, Emília; Magalhães, Vítor; Rebotim, Andreia; Matos, Lélia; +4 Authors

    The CARBO-ACID research cruise (EUROFLEETS+ SEA02_10) was carried out on the RV Ramón Margalef between August 2nd and August 11st, with departing from Vigo – Spain and ending in Lisbon – Portugal. The main objective of this cruise was to collect data and samples to study the potential effects of ocean acidification on carbonate marine organisms (coccolithophores, pteropods, planktonic and benthic foraminifera, and corals) along the Iberian margin. With this objective, oceanographic data and water samples, plankton, cold-water corals and sediment samples were collected during an upwelling season, along two transects coinciding with the two persistent upwelling filaments off the Iberia Margin: the Cape Finisterra and the Cape Roca. In this dataset is guiven all the acquired data recollected onboad. During the CARBO-ACID cruise we did a total of 7 stations, 4 stations along the Cape Finisterra transect (from W to E: CA3, CA2, CA7, CA8) and 3 stations at the Cape Roca (from W to E: CA6, CA5, CA4) transect (Fig). At each station we usually started with a multibeam survey, a CTD and Rosette cast. These initial operations allowed to identify the different water masses present in this area, characterize their physical properties and to recover seawater samples at specific depth levels. The seawater samples were onboard subsampled, preserved in cold conditions or with chemicals and/ or filtered for several further analysis in the shore-based laboratories: DNA, chlorophyll, fitoplankton, coccolithophores, pH, alkalinity, stable isotopic composition, trace elements concentration and Suspend Particulate Matter. Subsequently to these operations, at each station, two vertical tows with a plankton multinet (with 5 nets) were done on the top 700 m of the water column to sample the planktonic communities of the different water depths. After this, sediment samples were recovered with a box-corer to study the past oceanographic conditions, between the pre-industrial Era and the Present, with multi-proxies used in paleoceanography and sedimentology. A total of 10 box-cores were recollected and each of them was onboard sub-sampled for eDNA, enzymes and benthic foraminifera. Fifteen shipek grab samples were recollected at the Fontanelas seamount (Estremadura Spur), station CA6, to characterize the sedimentary cover and to evaluate the presence of deep cold-water corals. Preliminary results show that the stations CA7, CA8 and CA4, located close to the coast, as expected, are the most influenced by the coastal upwelling, exhibiting colder surface water, higher values of fluorescence, and more zooplankton content reflecting higher phyto-zooplankton concentrations, as typical of the upwelling waters. At station CA4 temperature was higher and fluorescence showed lower values, indicative of less phytoplankton, and interpreted as indicating a different upwelling source water from that upwelled further north. Based on the CTD data, the Cape Roca transect is more influenced by the subtropical East North Atlantic Central Water (ENACWst), while the Cape Finisterra transect is more under the influence of the subpolar branch (ENACWsp). Seafloor sediment samples showed significant differences between the stations. Along the northern transect (Cape Finisterra) the seafloor sediments show an increase in grain size from the offshore to the coast. The offshore stations CA3 and CA2 revealed finer grained sediments, CA8 were composed of coarser sand and the station CA7, the shallowest station 77 m, presented the sediment composed mainly of shell fragments and coarse grain sand. Along the southern transect (Cape Roca), the offshore station CA6 (Fontanelas seamount) has coarser sandy sediments with rock clasts and cold-water coral fragments, and the stations CA5 and CA4 with fine sand to muddy sediments. The detailed CA6 bathymetry allowed to verify the existence of small plateaus on the slope of the Fontanelas seamount, where the fossil cold-water corals fragments were found, suggesting that this area is a very interesting system deserving further study with a ROV, and to characterize the corals fields and verify if there are live corals. These recollected data and samples will allow not only to reconstruct the pH variability under different environmental conditions, but also to estimate the biogeochemical changes along the coastal ocean waters as the anthropogenic influence increases. These results will contribute to better understand and model the effects on the biota under the future expected oceans pH changes.

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    Authors: Amadou Thierno Gaye; Xavier Capet; Juliette Mignot; Adama Sylla; +1 Authors

    Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12°N–20°N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain.

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    Climate Dynamics
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    Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climate Dynamics
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      Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Chia, E.L.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Bele, M.Y.; +1 Authors

    In Cameroon, as in other countries of the Congo basin region, policy processes and activities related to climate change have been hitherto geared mostly towards mitigation and related questions, with limited concern about adaptation issues. However, the increasing vulnerability of Cameroon to climate variability and change makes adaptation significant to its national climate-change policy. Nonetheless, it remains a challenge to make both adaptation and mitigation occupy the same policy space in Cameroon. This paper builds partly on studies carried out in two community forest carbon initiatives in the southern rainforest of Cameroon. It also argues, supported by existing literature on adaptation and mitigation, that mitigation activities have the potential to produce adaptation outcomes; a situation which avoids duplication of efforts and waste of financial and technical resources, if synergetic options are anticipated and planned. However, whether such integrated approaches succeed and are subsequently reflected in national-level climate policy depends on how actors across different sectors and at different levels engage and carry out their roles. The paper discusses these roles and how they can support each other in pursuing integrated initiatives – a context which is vital for Cameroon.

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    Climate and Development
    Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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      Climate and Development
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    Authors: Ana Maria Roxana Petrescu; Chunjing Qiu; Philippe Ciais; Rona L. Thompson; +35 Authors

    Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

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    https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2...
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2...
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    Authors: Edith Garot; Thierry Joët; Marie‐Christine Combes; Dany Severac; +1 Authors

    Summary Past climatic fluctuations have played a major role in shaping the current plant biodiversity. Although harbouring an exceptional biota, oceanic islands have received little attention in studies on species demographic history and past vegetation patterns. We investigated the impact of past climatic changes on the effective population size of a tree (Coffea mauritiana) that is endemic to Reunion Island, located in the south‐western Indian Ocean (SWIO). Demographic changes were inferred using summary statistics calculated from genomic data. Using ecological niche modelling and the current distribution of genetic diversity, the paleodistribution of the species was also assessed. A reduction in the effective population size of C. mauritiana during the last glaciation maximum was inferred. The distribution of the species was reduced on the western side of the island, due to low rainfall. It appeared that a major reduction in rainfall and a slight temperature decrease prevailed in the SWIO. Our findings indicated that analyses on the current patterns of intraspecific genetic variations can efficiently contribute to past climatic changes characterisation in remote islands. Identifying area with higher resilience in oceanic islands could provide guidance in forest management and conservation faced to the global climate change.

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    New Phytologist
    Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
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    Article . 2020
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    Authors: Li, Jun; Colombier, Michel; Giraud, Pierre-Noël;

    Abstract This paper investigates the optimal choice of building energy efficiency (BEE) standard in the context of centralised urban district heating system in northern China. By employing a techno-economic analysis approach, we demonstrate that the current BEE standard implemented in the Chinese cities should be tightened further in order to achieve a socially optimal level. Without considering the externality costs associated with carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, current BEE standards need to be upgraded to the equivalent level of French RT2005 standard coupled with a properly designed district coal-fired Combined Heat and Power (CHP). In contrast, the equivalent efficiency standard of Swedish building code is preferably to be implemented in the case of explicit carbon emission restriction as long as the marginal cost of carbon emission (carbon price) is sufficiently high. The fuel-switching policy (from coal to natural gas) in the urban district heating system would result in significant increase in overall costs if the BEE upgrade is not taken into account simultaneously. It is also found that BEE improvements in northern Chinese cities are more cost-effective than investing in low-carbon technologies such as wind power or Carbon Capture and storage in the EU and US with regard to CO2 emissions mitigation.

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    Energy Policy
    Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
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      Energy Policy
      Article . 2009 . Peer-reviewed
      License: Elsevier TDM
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    Authors: Seferian, Roland;

    Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-ESM2-1.amip' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CNRM-ESM2-1 climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: TACTIC_v2, atmos: Arpege 6.3 (T127; Gaussian Reduced with 24572 grid points in total distributed over 128 latitude circles (with 256 grid points per latitude circle between 30degN and 30degS reducing to 20 grid points per latitude circle at 88.9degN and 88.9degS); 91 levels; top level 78.4 km), atmosChem: REPROBUS-C_v2, land: Surfex 8.0c, ocean: Nemo 3.6 (eORCA1, tripolar primarily 1deg; 362 x 294 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), ocnBgchem: Pisces 2.s, seaIce: Gelato 6.1. The model was run by the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse 31057, France), CERFACS (Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse 31057, France) (CNRM-CERFACS) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

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    World Data Center for Climate
    Dataset . 2023
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Datacite
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      World Data Center for Climate
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    Authors: Frédéric Chevallier; Pierre Regnier; Julia Pongratz; Atul K. Jain; +30 Authors

    Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights on the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions, due to different definitions and component fluxes reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers, that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definition and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to the globe and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, for the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims as an update of regional carbon budgets over the last two decades based on observations, for 10 regions covering the globe, with a better harmonization that the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversions results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes and land use fluxes.

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    https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-20...
    Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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    Geoscientific Model Development (GMD)
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Geoscientific Model Development (GMD)
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    Geoscientific Model Development
    Article . 2022
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2020
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    Wageningen Staff Publications
    Article . 2022
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    https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/vq...
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-20...
      Article . 2020 . Peer-reviewed
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      Article . 2020
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      Wageningen Staff Publications
      Article . 2022
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      https://dx.doi.org/10.60692/vq...
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    Authors: Hermann Behling; John Carson; Bronwen S. Whitney; William D. Gosling; +12 Authors

    Abstract. An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation–climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America – 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

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    CORE
    Article . 2016
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    CORE
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    Climate of the Past (CP)
    Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Seferian, Roland;

    Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.C4MIP.CNRM-CERFACS.CNRM-ESM2-1' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The CNRM-ESM2-1 climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: TACTIC_v2, atmos: Arpege 6.3 (T127; Gaussian Reduced with 24572 grid points in total distributed over 128 latitude circles (with 256 grid points per latitude circle between 30degN and 30degS reducing to 20 grid points per latitude circle at 88.9degN and 88.9degS); 91 levels; top level 78.4 km), atmosChem: REPROBUS-C_v2, land: Surfex 8.0c, ocean: Nemo 3.6 (eORCA1, tripolar primarily 1deg; 362 x 294 longitude/latitude; 75 levels; top grid cell 0-1 m), ocnBgchem: Pisces 2.s, seaIce: Gelato 6.1. The model was run by the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, Toulouse 31057, France), CERFACS (Centre Europeen de Recherche et de Formation Avancee en Calcul Scientifique, Toulouse 31057, France) (CNRM-CERFACS) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 100 km, ocnBgchem: 100 km, seaIce: 100 km.

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    World Data Center for Climate
    Dataset . 2023
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