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Summary Past climatic fluctuations have played a major role in shaping the current plant biodiversity. Although harbouring an exceptional biota, oceanic islands have received little attention in studies on species demographic history and past vegetation patterns. We investigated the impact of past climatic changes on the effective population size of a tree (Coffea mauritiana) that is endemic to Reunion Island, located in the south‐western Indian Ocean (SWIO). Demographic changes were inferred using summary statistics calculated from genomic data. Using ecological niche modelling and the current distribution of genetic diversity, the paleodistribution of the species was also assessed. A reduction in the effective population size of C. mauritiana during the last glaciation maximum was inferred. The distribution of the species was reduced on the western side of the island, due to low rainfall. It appeared that a major reduction in rainfall and a slight temperature decrease prevailed in the SWIO. Our findings indicated that analyses on the current patterns of intraspecific genetic variations can efficiently contribute to past climatic changes characterisation in remote islands. Identifying area with higher resilience in oceanic islands could provide guidance in forest management and conservation faced to the global climate change.

In recent decades, oceans have been increasingly stressed by human activities that induced significant changes in its abiotic properties. Temperature increase, acidification, deoxygenation, deregulation of ocean currents are some examples of the anthropogenic impact on our oceans. In addition, pollution and overexploitation of marine resources will lead to severe and possibly irreversible changes for marine life. As environmental conditions directly affect the physiology of species, changes in species distribution and trophic interactions have already been observed and are expected to increase in the near future. Predicting future oceans is currently a great challenge for scientists that work to maintain, as best as possible, the goods and services they provide. In this context, ecologists have developed several modeling approaches able to simulate changes in both species distribution (Ecological Niche Models – ENMs) and interactions (static and dynamic food-web models). This chapter explains these two approaches in detail as well as the ways by which these two families of models can be coupled. In each part, the main existing algorithms will be reviewed, with their advantages and limitations, and some key examples retrieved from recent scientific literature will be presented. Finally, we will discuss the current issues of these methods and their potential improvement.

AbstractTiming of breeding, an important driver of fitness in many populations, is widely studied in the context of global change, yet despite considerable efforts to identify environmental drivers of seabird nesting phenology, for most populations we lack evidence of strong drivers. Here we adopt an alternative approach, examining the degree to which different populations positively covary in their annual phenology to infer whether phenological responses to environmental drivers are likely to be (a) shared across species at a range of spatial scales, (b) shared across populations of a species or (c) idiosyncratic to populations.We combined 51 long‐term datasets on breeding phenology spanning 50 years from nine seabird species across 29 North Atlantic sites and examined the extent to which different populations share early versus late breeding seasons depending on a hierarchy of spatial scales comprising breeding site, small‐scale region, large‐scale region and the whole North Atlantic.In about a third of cases, we found laying dates of populations of different species sharing the same breeding site or small‐scale breeding region were positively correlated, which is consistent with the hypothesis that they share phenological responses to the same environmental conditions. In comparison, we found no evidence for positive phenological covariation among populations across species aggregated at larger spatial scales.In general, we found little evidence for positive phenological covariation between populations of a single species, and in many instances the inter‐year variation specific to a population was substantial, consistent with each population responding idiosyncratically to local environmental conditions. Black‐legged kittiwakeRissa tridactylawas the exception, with populations exhibiting positive covariation in laying dates that decayed with the distance between breeding sites, suggesting that populations may be responding to a similar driver.Our approach sheds light on the potential factors that may drive phenology in our study species, thus furthering our understanding of the scales at which different seabirds interact with interannual variation in their environment. We also identify additional systems and phenological questions to which our inferential approach could be applied.

ABSTRACTThe impact of UV‐B radiation (UVBR; 280–320 nm) on lower levels of a natural plankton assemblage (bacteria, phytoplankton and microzooplankton) from the St. Lawrence Estuary was studied during 9 days using several immersed outdoor mesocosms. Two exposure treatments were used in triplicate mesocosms: natural UVBR (N treatment, considered as the control treatment) and lamp‐enhanced UVBR (H treatment, simulating 60% depletion of the ozone layer). A phytoplankton bloom developed after day 3, but no significant differences were found between treatments during the entire experiment for phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a and cell carbon) nor for phytoplankton cell abundances from flow cytometry and optical microscopy of three phytoplankton size classes (picoplankton, nanoplankton and microplankton). In contrast, bacterial abundances showed significantly higher values in the H treatment, attributed to a decrease in predation pressure due to a dramatic reduction in ciliate biomass (∼ 70–80%) in the H treatment relative to the N treatment. The most abundant ciliate species were Strombidinium sp., Prorodon ovum and Tintinnopsis sp.; all showed significantly lower abundances under the H treatment. P. ovum was the less‐affected species (50% reduction in the H treatment compared with that of the N control), contrasting with ∼90% for the other ones. Total specific phytoplanktonic and bacterial production were not affected by enhanced UVBR. However, both the ratio of primary to bacterial biomass and production decreased markedly under the H treatment. In contrast, the ratio of phytoplankton to bacterial plus ciliate carbon biomass showed an opposite trend than the previous results, with higher values in the H treatment at the end of the experiment. These results are explained by the changes in the ciliate biomass and suggest that UVBR can alter the structure of the lower levels of the planktonic community by selectively affecting key species. On the other hand, linearity between particulate organic carbon (POC) and estimated planktonic carbon was lost during the postbloom period in both treatments. On the basis of previous studies, our results can be attributed to the aggregation of carbon released by cells to the water column in the form of transparent exopolymer particles (TEPs) under nutrient limiting conditions. Unexpectedly, POC during such a period was higher in the H treatment than in controls. We hypothesize a decrease in the ingestion of TEPs by ciliates, in coincidence with increased DOC release by phytoplankton cells under enhanced UVBR. The consequences of such results for the carbon cycle in the ocean are discussed.

Large macroalgal blooms (i.e. green tides of Ulva prolifera) occurred in the southern Yellow Sea, China, yearly from 2007 to 2016. They were among the largest of such outbreaks around the world, and these blooms likely originated along the coast of the Jiangsu Province, China. Understanding the roles of nutrients in the onset of these macroalgal blooms is needed to identify their origin. This study analyzes the spatiotemporal variations in dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus (DIN and PO4-P) and the N/P ratio along the Jiangsu coast from 1996 to 2014 during late-March to April, the months which corresponds to the pre-bloom period of green tides since 2007. A zone of high DIN and PO4-P concentrations has developed along the Jiangsu coast, between the cities of Sheyang and Nantong, since 1996. There was an 18-year trend of increasing DIN concentrations during the pre-bloom period as well as a positive correlation between the U. prolifera biomass and DIN concentrations. Nutrient inputs from rivers and mariculture in the Jiangsu Province may have provided nitrogen that contributed the magnitude of macroalgal blooms that subsequently spread into the southern Yellow Sea.

AbstractThis study sought to identify climate‐change thermal‐stress refugia for reef corals in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. A species distribution modeling approach was used to identify refugia for 12 coral species that differed considerably in their local response to thermal stress. We hypothesized that the local response of coral species to thermal stress might be similarly reflected as a regional response to climate change. We assessed the contemporary geographic range of each species and determined their temperature and irradiance preferences using ak‐fold algorithm to randomly select training and evaluation sites. That information was applied to downscaled outputs of global climate models to predict where each species is likely to exist by the year 2100. Our model was run with and without a 1 °C capacity to adapt to the rising ocean temperature. The results show a positive exponential relationship between the current area of habitat that coral species occupy and the predicted area of habitat that they will occupy by 2100. There was considerable decoupling between scales of response, however, and with further ocean warming some ‘winners’ at local scales will likely become ‘losers’ at regional scales. We predicted that nine of the 12 species examined will lose 24–50% of their current habitat. Most reductions are predicted to occur between the latitudes 5–15°, in both hemispheres. Yet when we modeled a 1 °C capacity to adapt, two ubiquitous species,Acropora hyacinthusandAcropora digitifera, were predicted to retain much of their current habitat. By contrast, the thermally tolerantPorites lobatais expected to increase its current distribution by 14%, particularly southward along the east and west coasts of Australia. Five areas were identified as Indian Ocean refugia, and seven areas were identified as Pacific Ocean refugia for reef corals under climate change. All 12 of these reef‐coral refugia deserve high‐conservation status.

Polar regions are warming faster than the world average and are profoundly affected by changes in the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice, with largely unknown repercussions on the functioning of marine ecosystems. Here, we investigated the impacts of interannual sea-ice variability on coastal benthic communities in Antarctica, focusing on a close-to-pristine area (Adélie Land). We investigated shell growth of the circum-Antarctic bivalve Laternula elliptica, considered a key species in these soft bottom benthic communities. Chondrophores of live-collected clams were prepared using standard sclerochronological methods to study the interannual variability of shell growth from 1996 to 2015. Our results show that the master chronology varied with sea-ice dynamics. When sea ice breaks up too early, sympagic algae do not have time to accumulate sufficiently high biomass, thus strongly limiting the energy input to the benthos. This negatively affects the physiological performance of L. elliptica, thereby altering their population dynamics and hence the functioning of these soft-bottom ecosystems.

Parasites can have strong impacts but are thought to contribute little biomass to ecosystems. We quantified the biomass of free-living and parasitic species in three estuaries on the Pacific coast of California and Baja California. Here we show that parasites have substantial biomass in these ecosystems. We found that parasite biomass exceeded that of top predators. The biomass of trematodes was particularly high, being comparable to that of the abundant birds, fishes, burrowing shrimps and polychaetes. Trophically transmitted parasites and parasitic castrators subsumed more biomass than did other parasitic functional groups. The extended phenotype biomass controlled by parasitic castrators sometimes exceeded that of their uninfected hosts. The annual production of free-swimming trematode transmission stages was greater than the combined biomass of all quantified parasites and was also greater than bird biomass. This biomass and productivity of parasites implies a profound role for infectious processes in these estuaries.