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Accurate modelling of agricultural management impacts on greenhouse gas emissions and the cycling of carbon and nitrogen is complicated due to interactions between various processes and the disturbance caused by field management. In this study, a process-based model, the Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum System (SPACSYS), was used to simulate the effects of different fertilisation regimes on crop yields, the dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (SN) stocks from 1990 to 2010, and soil CO2 (2007-2010) and N2O (2007-2008) emissions based on a long-term fertilisation experiment with a winter-wheat (Triticum Aestivum L.) and summer-maize (Zea mays L.) intercropping system in Eutric Cambisol (FAO) soil in southern China. Three fertilisation treatments were 1) unfertilised (Control), 2) chemical nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK), and 3) NPK plus pig manure (NPKM). Statistical analyses indicated that the SPACSYS model can reasonably simulate the yields of wheat and maize, the evolution of SOC and SN stocks and soil CO2 and N2O emissions. The simulations showed that the NPKM treatment had the highest values of crop yields, SOC and SN stocks, and soil CO2 and N2O emissions were the lowest from the Control treatment. Furthermore, the simulated results showed that manure amendment along with chemical fertiliser applications led to both C (1017 ± 470 kg C ha(-1) yr(-1)) and N gains (91.7 ± 15.1 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)) in the plant-soil system, while the Control treatment caused a slight loss in C and N. In conclusion, the SPACSYS model can accurately simulate the processes of C and N as affected by various fertilisation treatments in the red soil. Furthermore, application of chemical fertilisers plus manure could be a suitable management for ensuring crop yield and sustaining soil fertility in the red soil region, but the ratio of chemical fertilisers to manure should be optimized to reduce C and N losses to the environment.

Abstract The characteristics of the wind at 10 m height were studied over a period of 32 months. The sampling interval was 20 ms and the averaging time was 10 min. Probability density functions are given for the speed, direction, inclination and intensity of turbulence of the wind. Frequency contour plots are given for wind speed vs solar time, wind speed vs wind direction, wind speed vs global solar irradiance and wind speed vs the intensity of turbulence of the wind. Differences between the results for day and night and between various seasons are examined.

This study compared maize, sorghum and pearl-millet, leading C4 cereals, for the transpiration rate (TR) response to increasing atmospheric and soil water stress. The TR response to transiently increasing VPD (0.9-4.1 kPa) and the transpiration and leaf area expansion response to progressive soil drying were measured in controlled conditions at early vegetative stage in 10-16 genotypes of each species grown in moderate or high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) conditions. Maize grown under moderate VPD conditions restricted TR under high VPD, but not sorghum and pearl millet. By contrast, when grown under high VPD, all species increased TR upon increasing VPD, suggesting a loss of TR responsiveness. Sorghum and pearl-millet grown under high VPD reduced leaf area, but not maize. Upon progressive soil drying, maize reduced transpiration at higher soil moisture than sorghum and pearl millet, especially under high VPD, and leaf area expansion declined at similar or lower soil moisture than transpiration in maize and sorghum. It is concluded that maize conserves water by restricting transpiration upon increasing VPD and under higher soil moisture than sorghum and millet, giving maize significantly higher TE, whereas sorghum and pearl millet rely mostly on reduced leaf area and somewhat on transpiration restriction.

AbstractDengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks, indicating that dengue tends to become established in areas after introduction. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.Author summaryDengue is a mosquito-borne disease that has expanded rapidly around the world due to increased urbanisation, global mobility and climate change. In Brazil, geographical barriers to dengue transmission exist, beyond which certain areas including South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest are relatively protected from outbreaks. However, we found that the previous barrier in South Brazil has shifted futher south as a result of increased temperature suitability. The previously identified barrier protecting the western Amazon no longer exists. This is particularly concerning as we found dengue outbreaks tend to become established in areas after introduction. Highly influential cities with many transport links had increased odds of an outbreak. However, the most influencial cities had lower odds of an outbreak than cities connected regionally. This study highlights the importance of monitoring the expansion of dengue outbreaks and designing disease prevention strategies for areas at risk of future outbreaks as well as areas in the established dengue transmission zone.

Abstract The earth’s climate is changing, with global warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions driven by economic and population growth. Human systems and ecosystems vary in their exposure, mitigation and adaptive capacity, and vulnerability to various forms of climate change. Once mitigation and adaptation efforts have been exhausted, vulnerability remains. Data compiled by the University of Notre Dame covering over 100 nations in 2016 were used to construct a new composite climate change vulnerability index that features endogenously generated weights to aggregate vulnerability indices across six vulnerable sectors. These weights have the potential to inform policy aimed at allocating resources to reduce the cost of limiting vulnerability. The new composite vulnerability index, whose weights differ across sectors and across nations, is compared with the Notre Dame vulnerability index, which uses weights equal across sectors and constant across nations. Although the two indices agree on the identity of the most vulnerable nations, there is a statistically significant difference between the two indices. In addition, a nonparametric statistical test failed to reject the null hypothesis that one sectoral index could be deleted from the composite index without significant loss of information. This also has potentially important policy implications.

This paper explores to what extent moving towards the 30% GHG emission reductions by 2020 with respect to 1990 in the EU can be considered a transformative target. To do so, we first define the concept of transformative targets from a complex systems perspective and show a novel approach and original results using an extended application of the GEM-E3 model. Traditional macroeconomic models cannot easily handle key synergetic system effects derived from green growth and sustainability policies, and thus require additional features. We analyse the role of semi-endogenous growth driven by learning-by-doing and low-carbon investment expectations following a long-term transformative trajectory.

Abstract. The increased resolution of numerical weather prediction models allows nowadays addressing more realistically urban meteorology and air pollution processes. This has triggered new interest in modelling and describing experimentally the specific features and processes of urban areas. Recent developments and results performed within the EU-funded project FUMAPEX on integrated systems for forecasting urban meteorology and air pollution are reported here. Sensitivity studies with respect to optimum resolution, parametrisation of urban roughness and surface exchange fluxes and the role of urban soil layers are carried out with advanced meso- or sub-meso meteorological models. They show that sensible improvements can be achieved by higher model resolution that is accompanied with better description of urban surface features. Recommendations, especially with respect to advanced urban air quality forecasting and information systems, are given together with an assessment of the needed further research and data.