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AbstractCrustose coralline algae (CCA) are a group of calcifying red macroalgae crucial to tropical coral reefs because they form crusts that cement together the reef framework1. Previous research into the responses of CCA to ocean warming (OW) and ocean acidification (OA) have found reductions in calcification rates and survival2,3, with magnitude of effect being species-specific. Responses of CCA to OW and OA could be linked to evolutionary divergence time and/or their underlying molecular biology, the role of either being unknown in CCA. Here we showSporolithon durum, a species from an earlier diverged lineage that exhibits low sensitivity to climate stressors, had little change in metabolic performance and did not significantly alter the expression of any genes when exposed to temperature and pH perturbations. In contrast,Porolithon onkodes, a species from a recently diverged lineage, reduced photosynthetic rates and had over 400 significantly differentially expressed genes in response to experimental treatments, with differential regulation of genes relating to physiological processes. We suggest earlier diverged CCA may be resistant to OW and OA conditions predicted for 2100, whereas taxa from more recently diverged lineages with demonstrated high sensitivity to climate stressors may have limited ability for acclimatisation.

Thermal generation is a vital component of mature and reliable electricity markets. As the share of renewable electricity in such markets grows, so too do the challenges associated with its variability. Proposed solutions to these challenges typically focus on alternatives to primary generation, such as energy storage, demand side management, or increased interconnection. Less attention is given to the demands placed on conventional thermal generation or its potential for increased flexibility. However, for the foreseeable future, conventional plants will have to operate alongside new renewables and have an essential role in accommodating increasing supply-side variability.\ud \ud This paper explores the role that conventional generation has to play in managing variability through the sub-system case study of Northern Ireland, identifying the significance of specific plant characteristics for reliable system operation. Particular attention is given to the challenges of wind ramping and the need to avoid excessive wind curtailment. Potential for conflict is identified with the role for conventional plant in addressing these two challenges. Market specific strategies for using the existing fleet of generation to reduce the impact of renewable resource variability are proposed, and wider lessons from the approach taken are identified.

In an idealised industrial ecosystem (IE), firms and organisations utilise each other's material and energy flows including wastes and by-products to reduce the system's virgin material and energy input as well as the waste and emission output from the system as a whole, and contribute to sustainable development (SD). IE complements the more conventional individual flow, product, process, organisation, individual actor or sector-focused environmental management approaches and tools with network or systems level approaches. The first research objective of this paper is to construct indicators for IE. The second task is to test the use of these indicators with "what if?" material and energy flow scenarios for the energy and waste system of Satakunta region in Finland including 28 municipalities. Using literature analysis as a source, we arrive at environmental indicators of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents, and at economic indicators of fuel, energy and waste management costs and revenues. The social indicators show the employment effects of the waste management system. The scenarios analyse the current situation (0-scenario) against alternative situations in the future. The future scenarios are developed according to the known and anticipated trends in international and national policy and legislation. The indicator application in the scenarios produces social, environmental and economic effects of waste management in four categories: direct negative, direct positive, indirect negative and indirect positive. Industrial ecosystem theory emphasises the utilisation of wastes as a resource with value alongside the objective of reducing waste. Therefore, the indirect positive effects of waste management are important, as well as the conventional focus of waste management, which has usually been on direct positive effects. The main difficulties in our argument are the system boundary definition, the qualitatively different nature of environmental, economic and social effects and indicators as well as the lack of qualitative or interview data on the preferences and interests of the actors involved.

ABSTRACTWind power forecasts are useful tools for power load balancing, energy trading and wind farm operations. Long range monthly‐to‐seasonal forecasting allows the prediction of departures from average weather conditions beyond traditional weather forecast timescales, months in advance. However, it has not yet been demonstrated how these forecasts can be optimally transformed to wind power. The predictable part of a seasonal forecast is for longer monthly averages, not daily averages, but to use monthly averages misses information on variability. To investigate, here a model relating average weather conditions to average wind power output was built, based on the relationship between instantaneous wind speed and power production and incorporating fluctuations in air density due to temperature and wind speed variability. Observed monthly average power output from UK stations was used to validate the model and to investigate the optimal temporal resolution for the data used to drive the model. Multiple simulations of wind power were performed based on reanalysis data, making separate simulations based on monthly, daily and sub‐daily averages, using a distribution defined by the mean across the period to incorporate information on variability. Basing the simulation on monthly averages alone is sub‐optimal: using daily average winds gives the highest correlation against observations. No improvement over this is gained by using sub‐daily averages or including temperature variability. This signifies that to transform seasonal forecasts to wind power a compromise must be made between using the daily averages with debatable skill and the more predictable monthly averages, losing information on day‐to‐day variability.

A detailed pollen record from the Ocean Drilling Program Site 820 core, located on the upper part of the continental slope off the coast of northeast Queensland, was constructed to compare with the existing pollen record from Lynch's Crater on the adjacent Atherton Tableland and allow the production of a regional picture of vegetation and environmental change through the last glacial cycle. Some broad similarities in patterns of vegetation change are revealed, despite the differences between sites and their pollen catchments, which can be related largely to global climate and sea-level changes. The original estimated time scale of the Lynch's Crater record is largely confirmed from comparison with the more thoroughly dated ODP record. Conversely, the Lynch's Crater pollen record has assisted in dating problematic parts of the ODP record. In contrast to Lynch's Crater, which reveals a sharp and sustained reduction in drier araucarian forest around 38,000 yrs BP, considered to have been the result of burning by Aboriginal people, the ODP record indicates, most likely, a stepwise reduction, dating from 140,000 yrs BP or beyond. The earliest reduction shows lack of a clear connection between Araucaria decline and increased burning and suggests that people may not have been involved at this stage. However, a further decline in araucarian forest, possibly around 45,000 yrs BP, which has a more substantial environmental impact and is not related to a time of major climate change, is likely, at least partially, the result of human burning. The suggestion, from the ODP core oxygen isotope record, of a regional sea-surface temperature increase of around 4 degrees C between about 400,000 and 250,000 yrs BP, may have had some influence on the overall decline in Araucaria and its replacement by sclerophyll vegetation. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract Decentralised energy in the UK is rare. Cities in the north of England however lead the UK in terms of sustainable, low-carbon, local/district heating, through the implementation of combined-heat-and-power (CHP) facilities; substantial schemes are installed in several cities, including Barnsley and Sheffield. This paper presents the results from extensive experimental and theoretical feasibility studies, in which the merits of these were explored. Barnsley has a number of biomass-fuelled community energy generators, where pollutant monitoring and mathematical modelling were conducted to assess combustion characteristics and overall system performance. Measured pollutant levels were within the relative emission limits, though emission concentrations (CO, CO2, NO and particles) in the flue gas from the coal boiler were higher than the wood pellet boiler. Sheffield already has a citywide district energy network, centred around a sustainably-sourced waste-to-energy facility; an expansion of this scheme was investigated here. This focuses mainly on the link to a 30 MW wood-fired CHP plant, which could be a significant provider of additional thermal capacity (low-grade heat) to an expanded network. Through identifying heat sources and sinks – potential suppliers and end-users – key areas were identified where a connection to the heat network would be feasible.

AbstractOcean warming is altering the biogeographical distribution of marine organisms. In the tropics, rising sea surface temperatures are restructuring coral reef communities with sensitive species being lost. At the biogeographical divide between temperate and tropical communities, warming is causing macroalgal forest loss and the spread of tropical corals, fishes and other species, termed “tropicalization”. A lack of field research into the combined effects of warming and ocean acidification means there is a gap in our ability to understand and plan for changes in coastal ecosystems. Here, we focus on the tropicalization trajectory of temperate marine ecosystems becoming coral‐dominated systems. We conducted field surveys and in situ transplants at natural analogues for present and future conditions under (i) ocean warming and (ii) both ocean warming and acidification at a transition zone between kelp and coral‐dominated ecosystems. We show that increased herbivory by warm‐water fishes exacerbates kelp forest loss and that ocean acidification negates any benefits of warming for range extending tropical corals growth and physiology at temperate latitudes. Our data show that, as the combined effects of ocean acidification and warming ratchet up, marine coastal ecosystems lose kelp forests but do not gain scleractinian corals. Ocean acidification plus warming leads to overall habitat loss and a shift to simple turf‐dominated ecosystems, rather than the complex coral‐dominated tropicalized systems often seen with warming alone. Simplification of marine habitats by increased CO2 levels cascades through the ecosystem and could have severe consequences for the provision of goods and services.