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A Bayesian network model was developed to assess the combined influence of nutrient conditions and climate on the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms within lakes of diverse hydrology and nutrient supply. Physicochemical, biological, and meteorological observations were collated from 20 lakes located at different latitudes and characterized by a range of sizes and trophic states. Using these data, we built a Bayesian network to (1) analyze the sensitivity of cyanobacterial bloom development to different environmental factors and (2) determine the probability that cyanobacterial blooms would occur. Blooms were classified in three categories of hazard (low, moderate, and high) based on cell abundances. The most important factors determining cyanobacterial bloom occurrence were water temperature, nutrient availability, and the ratio of mixing depth to euphotic depth. The probability of cyanobacterial blooms was evaluated under different combinations of total phosphorus and water temperature. The Bayesian network was then applied to quantify the probability of blooms under a future climate warming scenario. The probability of the “high hazardous” category of cyanobacterial blooms increased 5% in response to either an increase in water temperature of 0.8°C (initial water temperature above 24°C) or an increase in total phosphorus from 0.01 mg/L to 0.02 mg/L. Mesotrophic lakes were particularly vulnerable to warming. Reducing nutrient concentrations counteracts the increased cyanobacterial risk associated with higher temperatures.

SUMMARY China’s growing presence in Africa’s extractive industries has been the subject of much debate in recent years, reflecting concerns about both environmental sustainability and the governance of resource wealth for long-term benefit. In Cameroon, since 2000 the largest timber concession in the country has been held by a Chinese company. This provides an opportunity to take a deeper look at corporate practices in the extractive industry and explore the extent to which corporate behaviour varies between Chinese and non-Chinese companies. Through a general analysis of Cameroonian timber production and trade, and a detailed analysis of two European companies (one FSC-certified) and one Chinese company (without FSC certification), this paper assesses the effects of Chinese capital and China-related trade on rural livelihoods and forest condition in the Cameroonian forestry sector. Our findings suggest that while the Chinese market shapes the trade patterns and management activities of logging companies, it does so irrespective of the companies’ nationality. Also, findings suggest that nationality of firms has a weak influence on the impacts on local livelihoods around the sampled logging concessions in Cameroon.

The basins of the Indus and Ganges rivers cover 2.20 million km2 and are inhabited by more than a billion people. The region is under extreme pressures of population and poverty, unregulated utilization of the resources and low levels of productivity. The needs are: (1) development policies that are regionally differentiated to ensure resource sustainability and high productivity; (2) immediate development and implementation of policies for sound groundwater management and energy use; (3) improvement of the fragile food security and to broaden its base; and (4) policy changes to address land fragmentation and improved infrastructure. Meeting these needs will help to improve productivity, reduce rural poverty and improve overall human development.

Much of New South Wales and southern Queensland suffered from extreme drought from 2017 to 2019. This study models drought and bushfires impacts using VU‐TERM, a multi‐regional, dynamic CGE model. Prolonged drought pushed national real GDP to 0.7 per cent or more below base in 2018–2019 and 2019–2020. NSW’s real GDP fell relative to forecast by 1.1 per cent or $6.9 billion in 2018–2019 and 1.6 per cent or $10.2 billion in 2019–2020. These impacts reflect a severe diminution of farm output, given that agriculture accounts for around 1.6 per cent of NSW’s income. Bushfires exacerbated 2019–2020 losses. We assume that there is a full recovery in seasonal conditions in 2020. However, prolonged drought and bushfire destruction deplete farm capital through depressed investment and diminished herd numbers. Consequently, the income earning capacity of farms in recovery remains below that of a no drought base. The net present value of the national welfare loss is $63 billion, split between $53 billion in losses from drought and $10 billion from bushfires. The latter excludes any valuation of human lives lost, flora, fauna or forestry destruction. In the longer term, adaptation and policy responses will need to reflect the expectation of increased frequency of adverse climatic events.

Peatlands are a critical carbon store comprising 30% of the Earth’s terrestrial soil carbon. Sphagnum mosses comprise up to 90% of peat in the northern hemisphere but impacts of climate change on Sphagnum mosses are poorly understood, limiting development of sustainable peatland management and restoration. This study investigates the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) (800 ppm) and hydrology on the growth of Sphagnum fallax, Sphagnum capillifolium and Sphagnum papillosum and greenhouse gas fluxes from moss–peat mesocosms. Elevated CO2 levels increased Sphagnum height and dry weight but the magnitude of the response differed among species. The most responsive species, S. fallax, yielded the most biomass compared to S. papillosum and S. capillifolium. Water levels and the CO2 treatment were found to interact, with the highest water level (1 cm below the surface) seeing the largest increase in dry weight under eCO2 compared to ambient (400 ppm) concentrations. Initially, CO2 flux rates were similar between CO2 treatments. After week 9 there was a consistent three-fold increase of the CO2 sink strength under eCO2. At the end of the experiment, S. papillosum and S. fallax were greater sinks of CO2 than S. capillifolium and the − 7 cm water level treatment showed the strongest CO2 sink strength. The mesocosms were net sources of CH4 but the source strength varied with species, specifically S. fallax produced more CH4 than S. papillosum and S. capillifolium. Our findings demonstrate the importance of species selection on the outcomes of peatland restoration with regards to Sphagnum’s growth and GHG exchange.

AbstractAimIdentifying the mechanisms influencing species' distributions is critical for accurate climate change forecasts. However, current approaches are limited by correlative models that cannot distinguish between direct and indirect effects.LocationNew Hampshire and Vermont, USA.MethodsUsing causal and correlational models and new theory on range limits, we compared current (2014–2019) and future (2080s) distributions of ecologically important mammalian carnivores and competitors along range limits in the northeastern US under two global climate models (GCMs) and a high‐emission scenario (RCP8.5) of projected snow and forest biomass change.ResultsOur hypothesis that causal models of climate‐mediated competition would result in different distribution predictions than correlational models, both in the current and future periods, was well‐supported by our results; however, these patterns were prominent only for species pairs that exhibited strong interactions. The causal model predicted the current distribution of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) more accurately, likely because it incorporated the influence of competitive interactions mediated by snow with the closely related bobcat (Lynx rufus). Both modeling frameworks predicted an overall decline in lynx occurrence in the central high‐elevation regions and increased occurrence in the northeastern region in the 2080s due to changes in land use that provided optimal habitat. However, these losses and gains were less substantial in the causal model due to the inclusion of an indirect buffering effect of snow on lynx.Main conclusionsOur comparative analysis indicates that a causal framework, steeped in ecological theory, can be used to generate spatially explicit predictions of species distributions. This approach can be used to disentangle correlated predictors that have previously hampered understanding of range limits and species' response to climate change.

The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the phenomenon of altered increased temperatures in urban areas compared to their rural surroundings. UHIs grow and intensify under extreme hot periods, such as during heat waves, which can affect human health and also increase the demand for energy for cooling. This study applies remote sensing and land use/land cover (LULC) data to assess the cooling effect of varying urban vegetation cover, especially during extreme warm periods, in the city of Munich, Germany. To compute the relationship between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Land Use Land Cover (LULC), MODIS eight-day interval LST data for the months of June, July and August from 2002 to 2012 and the Corine Land Cover (CLC) database were used. Due to similarities in the behavior of surface temperature of different CLCs, some classes were reclassified and combined to form two major, rather simplified, homogenized classes: one of built-up area and one of urban vegetation. The homogenized map was merged with the MODIS eight-day interval LST data to compute the relationship between them. The results revealed that (i) the cooling effect accrued from urban vegetation tended to be non-linear; and (ii) a remarkable and stronger cooling effect in terms of LST was identified in regions where the proportion of vegetation cover was between seventy and almost eighty percent per square kilometer. The results also demonstrated that LST within urban vegetation was affected by the temperature of the surrounding built-up and that during the well-known European 2003 heat wave, suburb areas were cooler from the core of the urbanized region. This study concluded that the optimum green space for obtaining the lowest temperature is a non-linear trend. This could support urban planning strategies to facilitate appropriate applications to mitigate heat-stress in urban area.

Bark is frequently used in southern African traditional medicine to treat inflammation, yet it remains to be rigorously examined for its immunological and anti-inflammatory activity.Barks obtained from ten important and popular southern Africa plants were evaluated for their anti-inflammatory and immunomodulatory properties against the secretion of some pro-inflammatory cytokines (interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), and interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) as well as chemokines (monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1) and macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-2) in murine RAW 264.7 macrophages.The inhibitory effects of aqueous and ethanol extracts were determined using cytokine multiplex-bead assays in lipopolysaccharide (LPS)-stimulated and unstimulated RAW 264.7 cells.Overall, the ethanol extracts were more potent cytokine inhibitors compared to the aqueous extracts. The LPS-stimulated cells treated with the ethanol extracts of Erythrina lysistemon Hutch., Pterocelastrus rostratus Walp. Syzygium cordatum Hochst. ex Krauss and Warburgia salutaris (G. Bertol.) Chiov., demonstrated significant (p < 0.005) inhibition up to 85% of IL-1β, IL-6, and TNF-α secretion compared to the LPS control. Additionally, P. rostratus and S. cordatum aqueous bark extracts substantially decreased the secretion of all the tested cytokines and chemokines. Chemical investigation of the S. cordatum extract resulted in the identification of four ellagic acid derivatives: ellagic acid 4-O-α-rhamnopyranoside (1), ellagic acid 4-O-α-4″-acetylrhamnopyranoside (2), 3-O-methylellagic acid 4'-O-α-3″-O-acetylrhamnopyranoside (3) and 3-O-methylellagic acid 4'-O-α-4″-O-acetylrhamnopyranoside (4), along with mixtures of ellagic acid 4-O-α-2″-acetylrhamnopyranoside (5), ellagic acid 4-O-α-3″-acetylrhamnopyranoside (6) and ellagic acid (7). Their structures were confirmed by mass spectrometry, NMR spectroscopy, and comparison with data from literature.The cytokine inhibition properties of most of the medicinal plants screened herein are reported for the first time. Our results provide insights into the mechanism of action by which the selected southern African medicinal plants regulate inflammation.