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AbstractDengue is hyperendemic in Brazil, with outbreaks affecting all regions. Previous studies identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in Brazil, beyond which certain areas, such as South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest, were relatively protected from outbreaks. Recent data shows these barriers are being eroded. In this study, we explore the drivers of this expansion and identify the current limits to the dengue transmission zone. We used a spatio-temporal additive model to explore the associations between dengue outbreaks and temperature suitability, urbanisation, and connectivity to the Brazilian urban network. The model was applied to a binary outbreak indicator, assuming the official threshold value of 300 cases per 100,000 residents, for Brazil’s municipalities between 2001 and 2020. We found a nonlinear relationship between higher levels of connectivity to the Brazilian urban network and the odds of an outbreak, with lower odds in metropoles compared to regional capitals. The number of months per year with suitable temperature conditions for Aedes mosquitoes was positively associated with the dengue outbreak occurrence. Temperature suitability explained most interannual and spatial variation in South Brazil, confirming this geographical barrier is influenced by lower seasonal temperatures. Municipalities that had experienced an outbreak previously had double the odds of subsequent outbreaks, indicating that dengue tends to become established in areas after introduction. We identified geographical barriers to dengue transmission in South Brazil, western Amazon, and along the northern coast of Brazil. Although a southern barrier still exists, it has shifted south, and the Amazon no longer has a clear boundary. Few areas of Brazil remain protected from dengue outbreaks. Communities living on the edge of previous barriers are particularly susceptible to future outbreaks as they lack immunity. Control strategies should target regions at risk of future outbreaks as well as those currently within the dengue transmission zone.Author summaryDengue is a mosquito-borne disease that has expanded rapidly around the world due to increased urbanisation, global mobility and climate change. In Brazil, geographical barriers to dengue transmission exist, beyond which certain areas including South Brazil and the Amazon rainforest are relatively protected from outbreaks. However, we found that the previous barrier in South Brazil has shifted futher south as a result of increased temperature suitability. The previously identified barrier protecting the western Amazon no longer exists. This is particularly concerning as we found dengue outbreaks tend to become established in areas after introduction. Highly influential cities with many transport links had increased odds of an outbreak. However, the most influencial cities had lower odds of an outbreak than cities connected regionally. This study highlights the importance of monitoring the expansion of dengue outbreaks and designing disease prevention strategies for areas at risk of future outbreaks as well as areas in the established dengue transmission zone.

This paper explores to what extent moving towards the 30% GHG emission reductions by 2020 with respect to 1990 in the EU can be considered a transformative target. To do so, we first define the concept of transformative targets from a complex systems perspective and show a novel approach and original results using an extended application of the GEM-E3 model. Traditional macroeconomic models cannot easily handle key synergetic system effects derived from green growth and sustainability policies, and thus require additional features. We analyse the role of semi-endogenous growth driven by learning-by-doing and low-carbon investment expectations following a long-term transformative trajectory.

The upsurge in higher education is considered a key determinant for enhancing green growth. Moreover, ICT development is also the main catalyst of green growth. This research explores the role of higher education and ICT on green growth for China from 1995 to 2020. The study employs auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach for short-run and long-run estimates of green growth. The effect of higher education and ICT on green growth is significantly positive in the long run and short run. The outcomes of the empirical models reveal that financial inclusion is positively associated with green growth in both long run and short run. Moreover, renewable energy consumption is found to have a positive impact on green growth. The findings thus point to the need for policies that promote human capital and ICT infrastructure as a way of accelerating green growth.

This paper presents a study of the socio-technical ordering of time around wood-fuelled heating systems of detached houses. It analyses the sequences and rhythms that organize the work of domestic heating, its synchronization with other daily activities, and tempo as the subjective experience of time in these activities. The study is based on a large, pre-existing Finnish free-form diary collection. We suggest that domestic energy technologies become useable and useful through the gradual embedding that involves the temporal organization of everyday life. As a result, technologies that organize time are not only convenient in an invisible way but also act as taken-for-granted coordinates and rhythms of human pursuits in everyday life. In many countries, wood-fuelled heating systems remain a common renewable energy technology in detached houses and stand as one option to lower related carbon emissions. However, the broader use of wood is compromised by time and convenience.

Passive cooling energy systems are significantly important in achieving efficient design and performative built environment. Encouragingly, there are many passive cooling energy systems at three spatial levels of macro, meso and micro. In this research study, these energy systems are identified and are assessed in a SWOT analysis evaluation. Apart from social and economic implications that are broad and effective for most of passive cooling energy systems, this study focuses on the energy systems’ implications across five indicators of practice, health, environment, energy and policy, which are significant for disciplines of sustainable energy systems and the built environment. This study aims to evaluate the interdependency of each indicator across three spatial levels and then argue for methods that can be considered for potential implementation of passive cooling energy systems. Furthermore, this study offers a holistic overview of all available passive cooling energy systems and argue based on interplay between five indicators across the three studied spatial levels. This study focuses on warmer climate zones (e.g. hot and dry; hot and humid), where passive cooling is expected to me more effective and obligatory. As a result, this study aims to help energy specialists, policy makers, planners and designers to evaluate how they can utilize passive cooling energy systems based on the key studied indicators. Finally, this paper gives an overview of gaps in policy and practice implementation of such systems in practice and their effectiveness at various spatial levels of the built environment.

AbstractClimate change effects along with anthropogenic activities present the main factors that threaten the existence of heritage sites across the north Nile Delta of Egypt close to the coastline of the Mediterranean Sea. Observing the changes in the landscape close to the archaeological sites is an important issue for decision‐makers in terms of reducing the negative impact of natural events and human activities. The coastal heritage sites are becoming strongly threatened by the rising sea level phenomena that will happen due to global warming. Focusing on the distribution of the archaeological sites, this study aims to detect the areas at risk of shoreline erosion or accretion in the northern shoreline of the Nile Delta. In this study, the changes in the northern shoreline of the Nile Delta were observed and calculated during the last hundred years based on the integration between the old topographic maps from surveys in 1900, 1925 and 1945, optical satellite images captured by Landsat in 1972, 1986 and 2000; Sentinel2 2021; and the Radar SRTM data. The results of this study showed that the changes were enormous with a great shoreline erosion process over the last 121 years recorded along the shoreline in the periods between 1900–1925, 1925–1945, 1945–1972, 1972–1986, 1986–2000 and 2000–2021. The areas eroded were about 5.3, 4.7, 5.6, 8.9, 2.5 and 5.4 km2, respectively. Such negative movements caused the loss of two heritage sites, and the expected changes will lead to the loss of additional heritage sites in the next 500 years. Furthermore, a model was suggested for protecting the coastal heritage sites threatened by the risk of submergence. This study can help the decision‐makers to detect the coastal archaeological sites at risk and create innovative solutions for protecting these irreplaceable heritage sites.

The transition to low carbon energy systems poses challenges in terms of energy efficiency. In building refurbishment projects, efficient technologies such as smart controls and heat pumps are increasingly being used as a substitute for conventional technologies with the aim of reducing carbon emissions and determining operational energy and cost savings, together with other benefits. Measured building performance, however, often reveals a significant gap between the predicted energy use (design stage) and actual energy use (operation stage). For this reason, lean and interpretable digital twins are needed for building energy monitoring aimed at persistence of savings and continuous performance improvement. In this research, interpretable regression models are built with data at multiple temporal resolutions (monthly, daily and hourly) and seamlessly integrated with the goal of verifying the performance improvements due to Smart thermostatic radiator valves (TRVs) and gas absorption heat pumps (GAHPs) as well as giving insights on the performance of the building as a whole. Further, as part of modelling research, time of week and temperature (TOWT) approach is reformulated and benchmarked against its original implementation. The case study chosen is Hale Court sheltered housing, located in the city of Portsmouth (UK). This building has been used for the field-testing of innovative technologies such as TRVs and GAHPs within the EU Horizon 2020 project THERMOSS. The results obtained are used to illustrate possible extensions of the use of energy signature modelling, highlighting implications for energy management and innovative building technologies development.