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A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects.

Abstract The industry in China has been developing extensively in the last few decades. Large investments in China's industry may cause congestion because congestion is a widely observed economic phenomenon in such a scenario. In order to know the performance and allocate resources well, it is necessary for the Chinese government to measure congestion of the industry. Many scholars have studied this topic by means of data envelopment analysis (DEA). However, previous studies only pay attention to the framework of desirable outputs. In fact, undesirable outputs often accompany desirable outputs in production. Thus, in this study, a new approach for measuring congestion with undesirable outputs is proposed and applied to analyzing congestion of the industry in 31 administrative regions of China. The results show that five regions have congestion in their industry in 2010. Besides, the regions located in the east of the country perform the best in ecological efficiency, followed by regions in central and west China. Based on these findings, this paper proposes some political schemes to improve regional industrial efficiency.

The Chinese households that make up approximately a quarter of world households are facing a residential power tariff reform in which a rising block tariff structure will be implemented, and this tariff mechanism is widely used around the world. The basic principle of the structure is to assign a higher price for higher income consumers with low price elasticity of power demand. To capture the non-linear effects of price and income on elasticities, we set up a translog demand model. The empirical findings indicate that the higher income consumers are less sensitive than those with lower income to price changes. We further put forward three proposals of Chinese residential electricity tariffs. Compared to a flat tariff, the reasonable block tariff structure generates more efficient allocation of cross-subsidies, better incentives for raising the efficiency of electricity usage and reducing emissions from power generation, which also supports the living standards of low income households.

Abstract Energy utilization of crop straw is of high economic, social and ecological benefit. In this paper, based on the beneficiary pays principle, we use biogas production from crop straw as an example and analyze households' willingness to pay (WTP) for the local government-led project on energy utilization of crop straw. “Interpersonal trust” and “institutional trust” variables are introduced to improve the unified theory of acceptance and use of technology (UTAUT) model, on the basis of which, Probit and Interval Regression Models are employed to explore the determinants of households' WTP. Results show that: 1) Most households are willing to pay for biogas utilization of crop straw, and the average expected value of households' WTP is about 20.72 RMB per household monthly; 2) Crop straw program cost and benefit trade-offs, convenience of logistics and technology, and trust factors all play an important role in households’ WTP; 3) If the cultivation of trust is neglected, even if households have high expectations for the ecological performance of biogas production from crop straw, their WTP will not be improved. Conclusions are summarized to provide an important reference for the formulation of policies to improve energy utilization of crop straw in developing countries or regions.

Abstract Using country level panel data from East Asia over the period 1998–2011, this paper examines the implications of international production fragmentation-induced intermediate goods trade on the link between energy consumption and carbon pollution. The paper focuses on the interaction effect between energy consumption and trade in intermediate goods on carbon emission. The empirical results presented suggest that international trade in intermediate goods decreases the positive impact on carbon emission of energy consumption. When compared with the trade in final goods, intermediate goods trade contributes to a greater decrease in carbon pollution resulting from energy consumption. These results confirm that the link between energy consumption and carbon pollution in East Asia is significantly affected by international production fragmentation-induced trade in intermediate goods. The results presented in this paper have some important policy implications.

China faces growing environmental problems as rapid economic growth comes at the cost of excessive resource consumption. Sustainable development can only be realized by reducing energy intensity. Although some general factors that influence energy intensity have been described, less information is available to compare energy intensity in different regions. Here we use existing literature to assess the effects of three internal factors (economic structure, energy consumption structure, and technological progress) on energy intensity in three regions of China. We use panel data from 2000 to 2009 and find that the effects of each factor differ in each region. We further differentiate these effects by decomposing technological progress into three parts using the DEA-Malmquist approach. We find three components of technological change have completely different effects in each region. Furthermore, these findings are applied to propose relevant suggestions to reduce energy intensity in different regions of China.

Following the debate on the implications of international trade for global climate policy, this paper introduces the topic of the economic benefits from trade obtained by exporting countries in relation to the emissions generated in the production of exports. In 2008, 24% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and 20% of the employment around the world were linked to international trade. China “exported” 30% of emissions and hosted 37.5% of the jobs generated by trade worldwide. The European Union and the United States of America were the destination of 25% and 18.4% of the GHG emissions embodied in trade. The imports of these two regions contributed to the creation of 45% of the employment generated by international trade. This paper proposes the idea of including trade issues in international climate negotiations, taking into account not only the environmental burden generated by developed countries when displacing emissions to developing countries through their imports, but also the economic benefits of developing countries producing the goods exported to developed countries.

Abstract This paper explores the use of fuelwood in Third World cities. The importance of fuelwood and the factors which condition its use in cities are set out and three fuelwood problems are identified: the cost to urban consumers, fuel supply security and the impact of urban fuelwood markets on rural areas. Urban fuelwood interventions are evaluated, with four categories identified: interventions in marketing, conservation, increased, wood production and fuel-switching. Of these, fuel-switching by improved supply systems and increased production from smallholders and better management of natural woodlands appear to have the greatest potential. The need for flexibility/community participation in planning is stressed.