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In 2015, an estimated 429,000 deaths and 212 million cases of malaria occurred worldwide, while 70% of the deaths occurred in children under five years old. Changes in climatic exposure such as temperature and precipitation makes malaria one of the most climate sensitive outcomes. Using a global malaria mortality dataset for 105 countries between 1980 and 2010, we estimate that the global optimal temperature maximizing all-age malaria mortality is 20.6, lower than previously predicted in the literature. While in the case of child mortality, a significantly lower optimum temperature of 19.3° is estimated. Our results also suggest that in Africa and Asia, the continents where malaria is most prevalent malaria, mortality is maximized at 28.4 and 26.3, respectively. Furthermore, we estimate that child mortality (ages 0-4) is likely to increase by up to 20 percent in some areas due to climate change by the end of the 21st century.

Climate change is a global problem, which affects the various geographical regions at different levels. It is also associated with a wide range of human health problems, which pose a burden to health systems, especially in regions such as Africa. Indeed, across the African continent public health systems are under severe pressure, partly due to their fragile socioeconomic conditions. This paper reports on a cross-sectional study in six African countries (Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, Namibia, Ethiopia, and Kenya) aimed at assessing their vulnerabilities to climate change, focusing on its impacts on human health. The study evaluated the levels of information, knowledge, and perceptions of public health professionals. It also examined the health systems’ preparedness to cope with these health hazards, the available resources, and those needed to build resilience to the country’s vulnerable population, as perceived by health professionals. The results revealed that 63.1% of the total respondents reported that climate change had been extensively experienced in the past years, while 32% claimed that the sampled countries had experienced them to some extent. Nigerian respondents recorded the highest levels (67.7%), followed by Kenya with 66.6%. South Africa had the lowest level of impact as perceived by the respondents (50.0%) when compared with the other sampled countries. All respondents from Ghana and Namibia reported that health problems caused by climate change are common in the two countries. As perceived by the health professionals, the inadequate resources reiterate the need for infrastructural resources, medical equipment, emergency response resources, and technical support. The study’s recommendations include the need to improve current policies at all levels (i.e., national, regional, and local) on climate change and public health and to strengthen health professionals’ skills. Improving the basic knowledge of health institutions to better respond to a changing climate is also recommended. The study provides valuable insights which may be helpful to other nations in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Orphan crops are those crops that did not receive the same attention of the research community as in the case of staples such as wheat, maize, or rice despite their regional and nutritional importance. A relatively recent trend has been promoting their research to improve their productivity and resilience to environmental shocks. However, their impact on consumers’ nutrition has been analysed only considering the crops individually and not in the context of the diet. This is important because an increase in the consumption of one product may trigger changes in the other products that conform to the diet. The purpose of this paper is to assess the potential impact, in terms of food choices and nutrition, of increasing the consumption of orphan crops (represented by millet) in the Kenyan diet. This is carried out using a microeconomic-based methodology, which augments the original consumer problem with a constraint regarding the amount of the orphan crop on the diet. To compute the required elasticities for the method, three demand systems—i.e., for rural, less affluent urban, more affluent urban households—were estimated using the 2015–16 Kenyan Integrated Household Survey and the two-step approach to address the zero consumption for some food categories; the second step was modelled using the Linquad demand model. The results indicate that although the orphan crops have the capacity to improve some of the nutrients (e.g., vitamins and minerals), in net terms, as measured by the aggregated nutritional indicator the improvement is somewhat limited, the improvements occur in the rural and the less affluent population.

AbstractThe dynamic economic behavior in most integrated assessment models linking economic growth to climate change involves a differential equation solved by Jacob Bernoulli in 1695. Using the dynamic integrated climate economy (DICE) model and freezing exogenous variables at initial values, this dynamic is shown to produce implausible projections on a 60‐year time frame. If world capital started at US$1, after 60 years the world economy would be indistinguishable from one starting with 10 times the current capitalization. Such behavior points to uncertainty at the level of the fundamental dynamics, and suggests that discussions of discounting, utility, damage functions, and ethics should be conducted within a more general modeling vocabulary. Lotka Volterra dynamics is proposed as an alternative with greater prime facie plausibility. With near universality, economists assume that economic growth will go on forever. Lotka Volterra dynamics alert us to the possibility of collapse. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2013; 9: 2–6. © 2012 SETAC

I read with interest the commentary article by Bongaarts and Sitruk-Ware.1 I think this commentary is very timely, and I am so glad to see this topic being discussed. However, I wondered whether there could have been more of a focus on the impact of population in developed countries, particularly on the impact of having a child if you are in the most socioeconomically developed subgroup of the population? I would be really interested to hear the commentary authors' views on this. Although …

The Pan-African Consortium for the Evaluation of Anti-Tuberculosis Antibiotics (PanACEA) was designed to build tuberculosis (TB) trial capacity whilst conducting clinical trials on novel and existing agents to shorten and simplify TB treatment. PanACEA has now established a dynamic network of 11 sub-Saharan clinical trial sites and four European research institutions.In 2011, a capacity development program, funded by the European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership (EDCTP), was launched with four objectives, aiming at strengthening collaborating TB research sites to reach the ultimate goal of becoming self-sustainable institutions: networking; training; conducting clinical trials; and infrastructure scaling-up of sites.Assessment in six sub-Saharan TB-endemic countries (Gabon, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia) were performed through a structured questionnaire, site visits, discussion with the PanACEA consortium, setting of milestones and identification of priorities and followed-up with evaluations of each site. The results of this needs-based assessment was then translated into capacity development measures.In the initial phase, over a four-year period (March 2011 - June 2014), the programme scaled-up six sites; conducted a monitoring training program for 11 participants; funded five MSc and four PhD students, fostering gender balance; conducted four epidemiological studies; supported sites to conduct five Phase II studies and formed a sustainable platform for TB research (panacea-tb.net).Our experience of conducting TB clinical trials within the PanACEA programme environment of mentoring, networking and training has provided a sound platform for establishing future sustainable research centres. Our goal of facilitating emergent clinical TB trial sites to better initiate and lead research activities has been mostly successful.

The impacts of climate change on human health have been observed and projected in the Philippines as vector-borne and heat-related diseases have and continue to increase. As a response, the Philippine government has given priority to climate change and health as one of the main research funding topics. To guide in identifying more specific research topics, a scoping review was done to complement the agenda-setting process by mapping out the extent of climate change and health research done in the country. Research articles and grey literature published from 1980 to 2017 were searched from online databases and search engines, and a total of 34 quantitative studies were selected. Fifty-three percent of the health topics studied were about mosquito-borne diseases, particularly dengue fever. Seventy-nine percent of the studies reported evidence of positive associations between climate factors and health outcomes. Recommended broad research themes for funding were health vulnerability, health adaptation, and co-benefits. Other notable recommendations were the development of open data and reproducible modeling schemes. In conclusion, the scoping review was useful in providing a background for research agenda-setting; however, additional analyses or consultations should be complementary for added depth.