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A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects.

A brisk building boom of hydropower mega-dams is underway from China to Brazil. Whether benefits of new dams will outweigh costs remains unresolved despite contentious debates. We investigate this question with the "outside view" or "reference class forecasting" based on literature on decision-making under uncertainty in psychology. We find overwhelming evidence that budgets are systematically biased below actual costs of large hydropower dams - excluding inflation, substantial debt servicing, environmental, and social costs. Using the largest and most reliable reference data of its kind and multilevel statistical techniques applied to large dams for the first time, we were successful in fitting parsimonious models to predict cost and schedule overruns. The outside view suggests that in most countries large hydropower dams will be too costly in absolute terms and take too long to build to deliver a positive risk-adjusted return unless suitable risk management measures outlined in this paper can be affordably provided. Policymakers, particularly in developing countries, are advised to prefer agile energy alternatives that can be built over shorter time horizons to energy megaprojects.

This research investigates the relationships among renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and financial development in five sub-Saharan African nations utilizing panel data from 2000 to 2020. Econometric methods are used to ascertain the existence or absence of cross-sectional dependence and the short-run and long-run connections between the following factors: Pesaran cross-sectional dependence (CD) and cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) unit root tests, pooled mean group (PMG), and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimations. The presence of cross-sectional dependence is found and represented with the CIPS unit root test. No significant short-run relationship is found between the variables of the study, yet a significant long-run relationship is present among them. A positive relationship exists between CO2 emissions and financial development, while financial development and renewable energy consumption are found to have negative relationships with CO2 emissions. The study also supports the scale effect of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Additionally, no causality is found among the variables, and impulse response and variance decomposition estimation are carried out to recommend future effects. Policy implications of findings are discussed, with accompanying suggestions.

This research investigates the relationships among renewable energy consumption, economic growth, and financial development in five sub-Saharan African nations utilizing panel data from 2000 to 2020. Econometric methods are used to ascertain the existence or absence of cross-sectional dependence and the short-run and long-run connections between the following factors: Pesaran cross-sectional dependence (CD) and cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) unit root tests, pooled mean group (PMG), and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) estimations. The presence of cross-sectional dependence is found and represented with the CIPS unit root test. No significant short-run relationship is found between the variables of the study, yet a significant long-run relationship is present among them. A positive relationship exists between CO2 emissions and financial development, while financial development and renewable energy consumption are found to have negative relationships with CO2 emissions. The study also supports the scale effect of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Additionally, no causality is found among the variables, and impulse response and variance decomposition estimation are carried out to recommend future effects. Policy implications of findings are discussed, with accompanying suggestions.

SummaryAccording to the World Health Organization (WHO), the COVID‐19 pandemic has been the greatest challenge to humanity since World War II. Spain is one of the countries experiencing severe consequences from the COVID‐19 pandemic outbreak. In such a situation, when the population is quarantined, hospitals are crowded, and industries are shutting down; energy supply becomes a critical and “hard to predict” service. In this way, the study of the impact of COVID‐19 on the selling price of electricity in Spain is highlighted more comprehensively. Given the high level of uncertainty in global energy markets, there is a research gap that needs to be filled, that is, the creation of new decision support mechanisms that can reduce risks and ensure more significant forecasting for investments and energy management to deal with seemingly unprecedented effects experienced through the current pandemic. This study examines and develops econometric models to determine the impact of COVID‐19 on the Spanish electricity market. This article's main result is a framework that predicts the dynamic electricity market's behavior during shifting periods, that is, the COVID‐19 pandemic period. Noteworthy that the result of this article is useful in electricity market management and strategic developments.

SummaryAccording to the World Health Organization (WHO), the COVID‐19 pandemic has been the greatest challenge to humanity since World War II. Spain is one of the countries experiencing severe consequences from the COVID‐19 pandemic outbreak. In such a situation, when the population is quarantined, hospitals are crowded, and industries are shutting down; energy supply becomes a critical and “hard to predict” service. In this way, the study of the impact of COVID‐19 on the selling price of electricity in Spain is highlighted more comprehensively. Given the high level of uncertainty in global energy markets, there is a research gap that needs to be filled, that is, the creation of new decision support mechanisms that can reduce risks and ensure more significant forecasting for investments and energy management to deal with seemingly unprecedented effects experienced through the current pandemic. This study examines and develops econometric models to determine the impact of COVID‐19 on the Spanish electricity market. This article's main result is a framework that predicts the dynamic electricity market's behavior during shifting periods, that is, the COVID‐19 pandemic period. Noteworthy that the result of this article is useful in electricity market management and strategic developments.

The upsurge in higher education is considered a key determinant for enhancing green growth. Moreover, ICT development is also the main catalyst of green growth. This research explores the role of higher education and ICT on green growth for China from 1995 to 2020. The study employs auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach for short-run and long-run estimates of green growth. The effect of higher education and ICT on green growth is significantly positive in the long run and short run. The outcomes of the empirical models reveal that financial inclusion is positively associated with green growth in both long run and short run. Moreover, renewable energy consumption is found to have a positive impact on green growth. The findings thus point to the need for policies that promote human capital and ICT infrastructure as a way of accelerating green growth.

The upsurge in higher education is considered a key determinant for enhancing green growth. Moreover, ICT development is also the main catalyst of green growth. This research explores the role of higher education and ICT on green growth for China from 1995 to 2020. The study employs auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach for short-run and long-run estimates of green growth. The effect of higher education and ICT on green growth is significantly positive in the long run and short run. The outcomes of the empirical models reveal that financial inclusion is positively associated with green growth in both long run and short run. Moreover, renewable energy consumption is found to have a positive impact on green growth. The findings thus point to the need for policies that promote human capital and ICT infrastructure as a way of accelerating green growth.