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Featured paper: See Editorial p553

AbstractMultinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to facilitate a regionally cohesive set of marine-protected areas driven by national preferences and supported by quantitative conservation prioritization analyses, and illustrate it using the Coral Triangle Initiative. We identify areas important for achieving six objectives to address ecosystem representation, threatened fauna, connectivity and climate change. We expose trade-offs between areas that contribute substantially to several objectives and those meeting one or two objectives extremely well. Hence there are two strategies to guide countries choosing to implement regional goals nationally: multi-objective hotspots and complementary sets of single-objective priorities. This novel framework is applicable to any multilateral or global initiative seeking to apply quantitative information in decision making.

Africa has experienced unprecedented growth across a range of development indices for decades. However, this growth is often at the expense of Africa’s biodiversity and ecosystems, jeopardizing the livelihoods of millions of people depending on the goods and services provided by nature, with broader consequences for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Encouragingly, Africa can still take a more sustainable path. Here, we synthesize the key learnings from the African Ecological Futures project. We report results from a participatory scenario planning process around four collectively-owned scenarios and narratives for the evolution of Africa’s ecological resource base over the next 50 years. These scenarios provided a lens to review pressures on the natural environment, through the drivers, pressures, state, impacts, and responses (DPSIR) framework. Based on the outcomes from each of these steps, we discuss opportunities to reorient Africa’s development trajectories towards a sustainable path. These opportunities fall under the broad categories of “effective natural resource governance”, “strategic planning capabilities”, “investment safeguards and frameworks”, and “new partnership models”. Underpinning all these opportunities are “data, management information, and decision support frameworks”. This work can help inform collaborative action by a broad set of actors with an interest in ensuring a sustainable ecological future for Africa.

Omega-3 long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids (hereafter, omega-3), including eicosapentaenoic-acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic-acid (DHA), are essential nutritional compounds for humans, providing several benefits related to cardiovascular and neural health. Human intake of omega-3 occurs mostly via seafood, particularly fish. The primary source of omega-3 in aquatic systems is represented by primary producers, from which omega-3 are transferred throughout the food web. Nitrogen is an essential nutrient for primary producers and can be supplied to surface waters as nitrate upwelled from below, or as ammonium and other regenerated nitrogen forms recycled in situ. Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) are the most productive marine systems on Earth, together covering only 2% of the ocean’s surface area but supporting 25% of the global fish catch, thereby providing food for humans. In EBUS, nitrate and other nutrients are advected to the surface to support the proliferation of a phytoplankton community dominated by known omega-3 producers (i.e., diatoms). Given current climate change-related projections of ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and increased upwelling intensity, phytoplankton community composition in EBUS may change. Additionally, the global production of EPA + DHA is expected to decrease by up to 30%, rendering its supply for human consumption insufficient by 2050. Here we discuss the state of knowledge related to omega-3 transfer from phytoplankton to small pelagic fish in EBUS, including factors that can influence omega-3 production, links to nitrogen cycling, climate change implications for the omega-3 supply to humans, and suggestions for future research directions to improve our understanding of omega-3 in the ocean.

Drought threatens tropical rainforests over seasonal to decadal timescales, but the drivers of tree mortality following drought remain poorly understood. It has been suggested that reduced availability of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) critically increases mortality risk through insufficient carbon supply to metabolism ('carbon starvation'). However, little is known about how NSC stores are affected by drought, especially over the long term, and whether they are more important than hydraulic processes in determining drought-induced mortality. Using data from the world's longest-running experimental drought study in tropical rainforest (in the Brazilian Amazon), we test whether carbon starvation or deterioration of the water-conducting pathways from soil to leaf trigger tree mortality. Biomass loss from mortality in the experimentally droughted forest increased substantially after >10 years of reduced soil moisture availability. The mortality signal was dominated by the death of large trees, which were at a much greater risk of hydraulic deterioration than smaller trees. However, we find no evidence that the droughted trees suffered carbon starvation, as their NSC concentrations were similar to those of non-droughted trees, and growth rates did not decline in either living or dying trees. Our results indicate that hydraulics, rather than carbon starvation, triggers tree death from drought in tropical rainforest.

Abstract Aphid populations frequently include phenotypes that are resistant to parasitism by hymenopterous parasitoid wasps, which is often attributed to the presence of ‘protective’ facultative endosymbionts residing in aphid tissues, particularly Hamiltonella defensa. In field conditions, under parasitoid pressure, the observed coexistence of aphids with and without protective symbionts cannot be explained by their difference in fitness alone. Using the cereal aphid Rhopalosiphum padi as a model, we propose an alternative mechanism whereby parasitoids are more efficient at finding common phenotypes of aphid and experience a fitness cost when switching to the less common phenotype. We construct a model based on delay differential equations and parameterize and validate the model with values within the ranges obtained from experimental studies. We then use it to explore the possible effects on system dynamics under conditions of environmental stress, using our existing data on the effects of drought stress in crops as an example. We show the ‘switching penalty’ incurred by parasitoids leads to stable coexistence of aphids with and without H. defensa and provides a potential mechanism for maintaining phenotypic diversity among host organisms. We show that drought‐induced reduction in aphid development time has little impact. However, greater reduction in fecundity on droughted plants of symbiont‐protected aphids can cause insect population cycles when the system would be stable in the absence of drought stress. The stabilizing effect of the increased efficiency in dealing with more commonly encountered host phenotypes is applicable to a broad range of consumer–resource systems and could explain stable coexistence in competitive environments. The loss of stable coexistence when drought has different effects on the competing aphid phenotypes highlights the importance of scenario testing when considering biocontrol for pest management.