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While scientific research supporting mitigation of further global temperature rise remains a major priority, CoP26 and CoP27 saw increased recognition of the importance of research that informs adaptation to irreversible changes in climate and the increasing threats of extreme weather events. Such work is inevitably and appropriately contextual, but efforts to generalise principles that inform local strategies for adaptation and resilience are likely crucial. Systems approaches are particularly promising in this regard. This study adopted a system dynamics framing to consider linkages between climate change and population health across four low- and middle-income country settings with a view to identifying priority inter-sectoral adaptation measures in each. On the basis of a focused literature review in each setting, we developed preliminary causal loop diagrams (CLD) addressing dynamics operating in Mozambique, Lebanon, Costa Rica, and Georgia. Participatory workshops in each setting convened technical experts from different disciplines to review and refine this causal loop analysis, and identify key drivers and leverage points for adaptation strategy. While analyses reflected the unique dynamics of each setting, common leverage points were identified across sites. These comprised: i) early warning/preparedness regarding extreme events (thus mitigating risk exposure); ii) adapted agricultural practices (to sustain food security and community livelihoods in changing environmental conditions); iii) urban planning (to strengthen the quality of housing and infrastructure and thus reduce population exposure to risks); iv) health systems resilience (to maintain access to quality healthcare for treatment of disease associated with increased risk exposure and other conditions for which access may be disrupted by extreme events); and v) social security (supporting the livelihoods of vulnerable communities and enabling their access to public services, including healthcare). System dynamics modelling methods can provide a valuable mechanism for convening actors across multiple sectors to consider the development of adaptation strategies.

Abstract This paper explores the use of fuelwood in Third World cities. The importance of fuelwood and the factors which condition its use in cities are set out and three fuelwood problems are identified: the cost to urban consumers, fuel supply security and the impact of urban fuelwood markets on rural areas. Urban fuelwood interventions are evaluated, with four categories identified: interventions in marketing, conservation, increased, wood production and fuel-switching. Of these, fuel-switching by improved supply systems and increased production from smallholders and better management of natural woodlands appear to have the greatest potential. The need for flexibility/community participation in planning is stressed.

Recent literature on the effectiveness of donor programmes points to the importance of understanding the political context within which reforms are taking place. A body of evidence is now emerging suggesting that programmes that are more flexible and iterative are often more successful in achieving their objectives than programmes that adopt a more rigid, linear approach to reform and recent experiments with projects that “think and work politically” appear to show promising results.The characteristics of the power sector makes reform intensely political in almost all countries and donor projects have sometimes failed because of an inability to navigate the local politics of reform. This paper reviews what is known about how donors have taken politics into account in designing and implementing power sector reform programmes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. It illustrates the challenges which donors have faced with reference to case studies of donor attempts to support power sector reform in Tanzania and in the Indian state of Orissa. The paper draws on documentary evidence from the major donors to the sector in each country as well as a set of qualitative interviews with experienced project supervisors. It concludes with a set of recommendations for further research designed to provide insights on how best to design and implement power sector reform programmes given the political context in which they are working.

Renewable energy has been considered as the solution to the hydra-headed problems of energy security, energy access and climate change, especially in Africa. In addition, renewable energy sources, such as the sun, wind, wave and waste abound in Africa are in need of investment. In order to provide both policy and investment guide, this study investigates the drivers of renewable energy demand in oil-producing African countries. Three panel data models – a random effect model, a fixed effects model and a dynamic panel data model – are used to estimate renewable energy demand with a comprehensive set of determinants. The estimation results indicate that the main drivers of renewable energy in oil-producing African countries are real income per capita, energy resource depletion per capita, carbon emissions per capita and energy prices. The study recommends that policies should encourage the consumption of commercial sources of renewable energy to attract the needed investments.

Africa is blessed with abundant energy sources that can promote economic growth and provide sufficient capacity to meet up with the future electricity demand. This paper evaluates the progress made in renewable energy (RE) development in Nigeria and Cameroon together with the roadmaps for future implementation. Since the early 2000, Nigeria has identified RE as an additional source to improve electrical power generation, while Cameroon is yet to have a defined policy for RE development. Presently, in both countries, RE is being developed for empowering the local economies, but the RE incorporation to the national grid is yet to be implemented at a greater scale. Since Nigeria and Cameroon have similar climatic conditions, they can benefit from each other through greater cooperation in the RE sector. For the two countries, there is high solar irradiation and excellent wind speed that can be effectively utilized for electricity generation. For all these to benefit both nations, there is a greater need for good leadership and good governance.

Abstract Background Estimates indicate that household air pollution caused by solid fuel burning accounted for about 1.03 million premature mortalities in China in 2016. In the country’s rural areas, more than half the population still relies on biomass fuels and coals for cooking and heating. Understanding the health impact of indoor air pollution and socioeconomic indicators is essential for the country to improve its developmental targets. We aimed to describe demographic and socioeconomic characteristics associated with solid fuel users in a rural area in China. We also estimated the risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in association with solid fuel use and described the relationship between solid fuel use, socioeconomic status and mortality. We also measured the risk of long-term use, and the effect of ameliorative action, on mortality caused by cardiovascular disease and other causes. Methods We used the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) site in Pengzhou, Sichuan, China. We followed a cohort of 55 687 people over 2004–13. We calculated the mean and standard deviation among subgroups classified by fuel use types: gas, coal, wood and electricity (central heating additionally for heating). We tested the mediation effect using the stepwise method and Sobel test. We used Cox proportional models to estimate the risk of incidences of cardiovascular disease and mortality with survival days as the time scale, adjusted for age, gender, socioeconomic status, physical measurements, lifestyle, stove ventilation and fuel type used for other purposes. The survival days were defined as the follow-up days from the baseline survey till the date of death or 31 December 2013 if right-censored. We also calculated the absolute mortality rate difference (ARD) between the exposure group and the reference group. Results The study population had an average age of 51.0, and 61.9% of the individuals were female; 64.8% participants (n = 35 543) cooked regularly and 25.4% participants (n = 13 921) needed winter heating. With clean fuel users as the reference group, participant households that used solid fuel for cooking or heating both had a higher risk of all-cause mortality: hazard ratio (HR) for: cooking, 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02, 1.26]; heating, 1.34 (95% CI 1.16, 1.54). Solid fuel used for winter heating was associated with a higher risk of mortality caused by cerebrovascular disease: HR 1.64 (95% CI 1.12, 2.40); stroke: HR 1.70 (95% CI 1.13, 2.56); and cardiovascular disease: HR 1.49 (95% CI 1.10, 2.02). Low income and poor education level had a significant correlation with solid fuel used for cooking: odds ratio (OR) for income: 2.27 (95% CI 2.14, 2.41); education: 2.34 (95% CI 2.18, 2.53); and for heating: income: 2.69 (95% CI 2.46, 2.97); education: 2.05 (95% CI 1.88, 2.26), which may be potential mediators bridging the effects of socioeconomic status factors on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. Solid fuel used for cooking and heating accounted for 42.4% and 81.1% of the effect of poor education and 55.2% and 76.0% of the effect of low income on all-cause mortality, respectively. The risk of all-cause mortality could be ameliorated by stopping regularly cooking and heating using solid fuel or switching from solid fuel to clean fuels: HR for cooking: 0.90 (95% CI 0.84, 0.96); heating: 0.76 (95% CI 0.64, 0.92). Conclusions Our study reinforces the evidence of an association between solid fuel use and risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality. We also assessed the effect of socioeconomic status as the potential mediator on mortality. As solid fuel use was a major contributor in the effect of socioeconomic status on cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality, policies to improve access to clean fuels could reduce morbidity and mortality related to poor education and low income.

Amidst climatic and economic volatility, agricultural development and climate adaptation policies have increasingly turned to weather microinsurance to manage uncertainties, particularly in dryland pastoral and agricultural settings. While the political embrace of insurance has been cause for concern amongst those who fear insurance will undermine embedded coping mechanisms and moral economies, economists have puzzled over low insurance adoption rates amongst target populations. This article argues for an approach that scrutinizes insurance in relation to dynamic social practices and norms for responding to uncertainty. We employ this approach to investigate pastoralists’ encounters with index-based livestock insurance in Northern Kenya and Southern Ethiopia. Drawing on interview, ethnographic, and survey data, we demonstrate how insurance is understood within larger moral economies and collective imaginaries for living with and managing uncertainty in the drylands. Relational understandings shape pastoralists’ participation in risk-sharing arrangements, collective and individual decisions about livestock insurance purchase, and eventual uses of insurance payouts. Payouts also support a broad array of social reproductive purposes and investments in social and political life. As we conclude, these findings upset the binary between formal and informal insurance, revealing how “formal” index insurance must be negotiated with embedded social affiliations, rights, obligations, and understandings of uncertainty.