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We used environmental niche modelling along with the best available species occurrence data and environmental parameters to model habitat suitability for key cold-water coral and commercially important deep-sea fish species under present-day (1951-2000) environmental conditions and to forecast changes under severe, high emissions future (2081-2100) climate projections (RCP8.5 scenario) for the North Atlantic Ocean (from 18°N to 76°N and 36°E to 98°W). The VME indicator taxa included Lophelia pertusa , Madrepora oculata, Desmophyllum dianthus, Acanela arbuscula, Acanthogorgia armata, and Paragorgia arborea. The six deep-sea fish species selected were: Coryphaenoides rupestris, Gadus morhua, blackbelly Helicolenus dactylopterus, Hippoglossoides platessoides, Reinhardtius hippoglossoides, and Sebastes mentella. We used an ensemble modelling approach employing three widely-used modelling methods: the Maxent maximum entropy model, Generalized Additive Models, and Random Forest. This dataset contains: 1) Predicted habitat suitability index under present-day (1951-2000) and future (2081-2100; RCP8.5) environmental conditions for twelve deep-sea species in the North Atlantic Ocean, using an ensemble modelling approach. 2) Climate-induced changes in the suitable habitat of twelve deep-sea species in the North Atlantic Ocean, as determined by binary maps built with an ensemble modelling approach and the 10-percentile training presence logistic (10th percentile) threshold. 3) Forecasted present-day suitable habitat loss (value=-1), gain (value=1), and acting as climate refugia (value=2) areas under future (2081-2100; RCP8.5) environmental conditions for twelve deep-sea species in the North Atlantic Ocean. Areas were identified from binary maps built with an ensemble modelling approach and two thresholds: 10-percentile training presence logistic threshold (10th percentile) and maximum sensitivity and specificity (MSS). Refugia areas are those areas predicted as suitable both under present-day and future conditions. All predictions were projected with the Albers equal-area conical projection centred in the middle of the study area. The grid cell resolution is of 3x3 km.

This study investigated the effects of long-term-enhanced UV-B, and combined UV-B with elevated CO2 on dwarf shrub berry characteristics in a sub-arctic heath community. Germination of Vaccinium myrtillus was enhanced in seeds produced at elevated UV-B, but seed numbers and berry size were unaffected. Elevated UV-B and CO2 stimulated the abundance of V. myrtillus berries, whilst UV-B alone stimulated the berry abundance of V. vitis-idaea and Empetrum hermaphroditum. Enhanced UV-B reduced concentrations of several polyphenolics in V. myrtillus berries, whilst elevated CO2 increased quercetin glycosides in V. myrtillus, and syringetin glycosides and anthocyanins in E. hermaphroditum berries. UV-B x CO2 interactions were found for total anthocyanins, delphinidin-3-hexoside and peonidin-3-pentosidein in V. myrtillus berries but not E. hermaphroditum. Results suggest positive impacts of UV-B on the germination of V. myrtillus and species-specific impacts of UV-B x elevated CO2 on berry abundance and quality. The findings have relevance and implications for human and animal consumers plus seed dispersal and seedling establishment.

Lake Baikal has been experiencing limnological changes from recent atmospheric warming since the 1950s, with rising lake water temperatures, reduced ice cover duration and reduced lake surface-water mixing due to stronger thermal stratification. This study uses lake sediment cores to reconstruct recent changes (c. past 20 years) in Lake Baikal's pelagic diatom communities relative to previous 20th century diatom assemblage records collected in 1993 and 1994 at the same locations in the lake. Recent changes documented within the core-top diatom records agree with predictions of diatom responses to warming at Lake Baikal. Sediments in the south basin of the lake exhibit clear temporal changes, with the most rapid occurring in the 1990's with shifts towards higher abundances of the cosmopolitan Synedra acus and a decline in endemic species, mainly Cyclotella minuta and Stephanodiscus meyerii and to a lesser extent Aulacoseira baicalensis and Aulacoseira skvortzowii. The north basin, in contrast, shows no evidence of recent diatom response to lake warming despite marked declines in north basin ice cover in recent decades. This study also shows no diatom-inferred evidence of eutrophication from deep water sediments. However, due to the localised impacts seen in areas of Lake Baikal's shoreline from nutrient pollution derived from inadequate sewage treatment, urgent action is vital to prevent anthropogenic pollution extending into the open waters.