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Nearly three billion people in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) rely on polluting fuels, resulting in millions of avoidable deaths annually. Polluting fuels also emit short-lived climate forcers and greenhouse gases (GHGs). Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and grid-based electricity are scalable alternatives to polluting fuels but have raised climate and health concerns. Here, we compare emissions and climate impacts of a business-as-usual household cooking fuel trajectory to four large-scale transitions to gas and/or grid electricity in 77 LMICs. We account for upstream and end-use emissions from gas and electric cooking, assuming electrical grids evolve according to the 2022 World Energy Outlook’s “Stated Policies” Scenario. We input the emissions into a reduced-complexity climate model to estimate radiative forcing and temperature changes associated with each scenario. We find full transitions to LPG and/or electricity decrease emissions from both well-mixed GHG and short-lived climate forcers, resulting in a roughly 5 millikelvin global temperature reduction by 2040. Transitions to LPG and/or electricity also reduce annual emissions of PM2.5 by over 6 Mt (99%) by 2040, which would substantially lower health risks from Household Air Pollution. Primary input data was collected from the following sources: Baseline household fuel choices - WHO household energy database (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-26036-x) End-use emissions - US EPA lifecycle assessment of household fuels (https://cfpub.epa.gov/si/si_public_record_report.cfm?dirEntryId=339679&Lab=NRMRL&simplesearch=0&showcriteria=2&sortby=pubDate&timstype=Published+Report&datebeginpublishedpresented) Upstream emissions - Argonne National Labs GREET Model (https://greet.es.anl.gov/index.php) Current and future population estimates - UNECA (http://data.un.org/Explorer.aspx?d=EDATA) Input data was processed by defining household fuel choice scenarios, estimating national household fuel consumption based on these scenarios, and applying fuel-specific emission factors to create country-specific emission pathways. These emission pathways were input into the FaIR model (https://zenodo.org/record/5513022#.Yt_jfHbMLb0) which generated additional data for each scenario including time series of pollution concentrations, radiative forcing, and temperature changes. All data is provided in CSV format. Nothing proprietary is required. 

Study PopulationThe target population of the study were women aged 18 years to 69 years from households in Mwea East sub County that have experienced climate change events. As shown in table 3.1 below, the total population of female in Mwea East sub County in this age category was estimated at 38,734 (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)Volume III, table 2.5, (2019).Sample SizeA sample size of 449 respondents was determined as adequate for statistical analysis for the study using an online sample size calculator (calculator.net, 2021). 95% confidence level and 4.6% margin of error was used to calculate the sample size of 449 respondents determining the level of accuracy of the sample from the total estimated population of 38,734 women aged 18-69 years in Mwea East sub County.Data CollectionThe administration of the questionnaire was done by the Principal Investigator (PI) along with the KIIs, which were conducted after the questionnaire had been administered. The questionnaires were administered by 11 data collection assistants who were trained by the researcher. One of the 11 data collectors was the team leader. The researcher collected data in 5 of the households to demonstrate and practice the data collection process. Data AnalysisQuantitative and qualitative data were analyzed and triangulated to validate the findings. The quantitative data was analyzed using a combination of the IBM SPSS techniques including frequencies, cross-tabulations, bivariate statistics, means, correlations and descriptive ratio statistics. Qualitative data from both respondents and key informants’ interviews were documented using filed notes and thematically analyzed. The analysis from both sets of data was then merged to present the results. Study PopulationThe target population of the study were women aged 18 years to 69 years from households in Mwea East sub County that have experienced climate change events. As shown in table 3.1 below, the total population of female in Mwea East sub County in this age category was estimated at 38,734 (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS)Volume III, table 2.5, (2019).Sample SizeA sample size of 449 respondents was determined as adequate for statistical analysis for the study using an online sample size calculator (calculator.net, 2021). 95% confidence level and 4.6% margin of error was used to calculate the sample size of 449 respondents determining the level of accuracy of the sample from the total estimated population of 38,734 women aged 18-69 years in Mwea East sub County.Data CollectionThe administration of the questionnaire was done by the Principal Investigator (PI) along with the KIIs, which were conducted after the questionnaire had been administered. The questionnaires were administered by 11 data collection assistants who were trained by the researcher. One of the 11 data collectors was the team leader. The researcher collected data in 5 of the households to demonstrate and practice the data collection process. Data AnalysisQuantitative and qualitative data were analyzed and triangulated to validate the findings. The quantitative data was analyzed using a combination of the IBM SPSS techniques including frequencies, cross-tabulations, bivariate statistics, means, correlations and descriptive ratio statistics. Qualitative data from both respondents and key informants’ interviews were documented using filed notes and thematically analyzed. The analysis from both sets of data was then merged to present the results.

This dataset contains terrestrial fluxes of nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and ecosystem respiration (carbon dioxide (CO2)) calculated from static chamber measurements in riparian buffers of oil palm plantations on mineral soil, in Riau, Sumatra, Indonesia. Measurements were made monthly, from January 2019 until September 2021, with a break from April 2019 to October 2019 to allow for felling and replanting, and another break from January 2021 to June 2021 due to Covid-19 restrictions. To help to reduce the environmental impact of oil palm plantations, riparian buffers are now required by regulations in many Southeast Asian countries. The experiments were conducted to investigate the impact of greenhouse gas emissions from the riparian buffers. Research was funded through NERC grant NE/R000131/1 Sustainable Use of Natural Resources to Improve Human Health and Support Economic Development (SUNRISE) Greenhouse gas concentrations were measured using static chambers, enclosed for 45 minutes. Multiple regressions (including linear and hierarchical multiple regression) were fitted to calculate the best fit flux, using the RCflux R package, written by Dr Peter Levy (UKCEH).

Achieving reductions in global anthropogenic emissions necessary to mitigate the worst effects of climate change will require significant reductions in energy demand. However, there are concerns that energy demand reductions involving lifestyle and behavioural changes might negatively impact peoples’ wellbeing. The work in this thesis studies the impacts of how people spend their time – commonly known as time-use – to try to understand whether this is the true, or whether energy demand could be reduced while improving wellbeing. Using the UK as a case study, this issue is examined by determining the energy use and wellbeing attributes of different activities and lifestyles, by modelling the impacts of shifts in time-use between activities, and by comparing the importance of three specific changes that might impact future energy use and wellbeing. Firstly, based upon existing literature it is identified that there is a need to better understand the combined energy and wellbeing impacts of different activities and lifestyles. Combining UK time-use and energy consumption data, the energy intensity, enjoyment and sociability of time is studied. Comparing these metrics for different activities suggests that since the most enjoyable (and in some cases sociable) activities are generally the least energy-intensive, acceptable (or popular) lifestyle changes might exist that reduce national energy use and improve wellbeing. However, studying changes between 2000 and 2015 shows that while the population’s time became less energy-intensive, there was little change in average enjoyment and a reduction in sociability. Segmenting the population by age reveals that an ageing population could present a challenge since energy use broadly increases with age-group while social contact reduces. However, comparing occupations highlights opportunities for specific actions that could improve wellbeing and reduce energy use, while regional differences suggest that wellbeing might be improved without increasing energy use. Having determined the energy intensity and wellbeing associated with different uses of time, the impacts of possible time-use changes are then studied. Acknowledging the difficulty in trying to predict how people might choose to re-allocate time in different situations, a sensitivity-based approach is used to study the impacts of a wide range of possible shifts in time between activities. The approach is then applied to explore the impacts of extreme lifestyle changes associated with COVID-19 lockdown measures in the UK and validated against real-world observations during the pandemic. While activity changes associated with lockdown measures reduce energy use, there are varying implications for peoples’ wellbeing, with the youngest appearing to be most negatively impacted but those able to work from home potentially benefiting. Although lockdown measures prevented some of the most enjoyable and sociable activities from happening, alternative activity changes could be supported in future that reduce energy use while improving wellbeing. Finally, time is used as a basis to compare the importance of different types of changes and help to prioritise actions. This is demonstrated by studying the combined impacts of three example changes – greater home working, changes in commuting transport modes and car intensity – on office workers’ energy use and wellbeing. The results show that working from home could have a greater impact upon office workers’ average energy use and enjoyment than changes to commuting modes, but that the social contact provided by the office could be difficult to replace. The study also demonstrates different ways that energy savings might be achieved through home working, shifts in commuting modes and changes to vehicle intensity. This approach could be used more widely to compare a broader range of changes, understand their interactions and different ways to achieve outcomes, and help to identify those changes that are most important to reduce energy use and improve wellbeing. The work presented in this thesis shows that time-use can be used as a basis to examine energy demand and wellbeing together. Using time-use to link these issues enables trade-offs or co-benefits due to different uses of time to be determined and allows rebound effects to be considered. The results suggest that reducing energy use can be achieved at the same time as improving wellbeing. The hope is that the approaches and findings presented in this thesis can provide a basis for wider discussion and a platform for future work to support climate change mitigation strategies that are positive for both the environment and society.

This thesis shows how the Process Analysis Method (PAM) can be applied to assess technologies used to mitigate arsenic from drinking water in rural India, using a set of sustainability indicators. Stakeholder perspectives, gathered from a fieldwork survey of 933 households in West Bengal in 2012, played a significant role in this assessment. This research found that the ‘Most Important’ issues as specified by the technology users are cost, trust, distance from their home to the clean water source (an indicator of convenience), and understanding the health effects of arsenic. It was also found that none of the ten technologies evaluated are economically viable, as many do not charge user-fees, which creates reliance upon donations to meet recurring costs. Utilisation of a technology is strongly related to sociocultural capital, but in many cases, features that contribute to sociocultural value, like regular testing of the treated water, are not included in the financial budget. It is suggested that increased awareness might change attitudes to arsenic-rich waste and its disposal protocols. This waste is often currently discarded in an uncontrolled manner in the local environment, giving rise to the possibility of point-source recontamination. All technologies proved to have difficulties in dealing with waste, except the Tipot and Dug wells which produce no waste. Of the methods considered, the BESU technology scored highest, but still only with 47-62% of the maximum scores achievable within each domain. This explains the widespread failure of mitigation projects across the region. The indicators and metrics show where improvements can be made. A model scheme based on these findings is outlined which could be applied with the objective of increasing utilisation and improving sustainability. It can be concluded that a product stewardship approach should be taken in regard to design, implementation and operation of the technologies, including the creation of a regulated toxic waste collection and disposal industry.

AbstractWith the global economy not yet 10% circular, businesses are key stakeholders in designing new forms of resource use, especially large multinationals. However, compared with the wealth of studies on ‘born sustainable’ start‐ups, there is minimal case study or interview based research into how incumbent companies are approaching this transition. Focusing on plastics, we ask: how does one incumbent multinational company approach the circular economy transition? This paper presents a case study of the incumbent multinational chemical company Dow, a leading plastics manufacturer. Varied external stressors and drivers for the circular economy act upon a company (which also has its own imperatives), resulting in tentative steps towards circular economy. To date, these steps have tweaked the existing system rather than radically altering the business model. For companies, like for the entire global economy, this transition has only just begun. This paper identifies key drivers, enablers and barriers of the circular economy, none of which are fixed or immutable. Knowing which levers for change are available and effective could help policy makers to shift gear to enable quicker progress towards circularity. Overall, broad based support and engagement is needed to progress the circular economy, hence all stakeholders have roles to play in demanding and enacting circular practices. Funder: Philanthropic donation to the University of Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership from Unilever Funder: Prince of Wales Fellowship in Pathways to a Circular Economy

Due to increasing demographic pressures and widespread mismanagement, Pakistan is experiencing a severe water crisis. The mismanagement of Pakistan’s resources is linked to its legacy of colonialism. Failures to reign in the stranglehold of the rural elite or invest in transformative policies is leading to a downward spiral of poverty linked to environmental degradation (European Commission 2007). However, Pakistan is rarely included in studies of IWRM, this is in spite of knowledge gaps on the potential for a more tailored forms of IWRM in countries containing semi-feudal setups and colonial based systems of water management. The research question for this study therefore focuses on aspects of IWRM that can be tailored to Pakistan’s country context using the agricultural provinces of Punjab and Sindh as case studies. Due to the emphasis on shifting away from universal approaches, a significant portion of the study analyses the type and causes of water problems and existing legislation and institutions for water management in Pakistan. Field research is utilised to further contribute to identified gaps in IWRM literature. This field research is in the form of key informant interviews with government officials, an institutional assessment of Farmers Organisations and Water User Associations, and focus group discussions with farming communities. The study finds major flaws in Pakistan’s water agreements, funding systems, and institutional framework leading to operational problems. It finds that institutions created under participatory irrigation policies have made political alliances in order to function exacerbating biases in water allocations. The study concludes that for IWRM to be effective, it must be accompanied by land redistribution to weaken the political power of landlords, legislative changes to improve the transparency of voting, improved regulations, strengthened enforcement, and greater clarity in water agreements. Donor expectations on the role of women in irrigation management must also be more realistic if they are to be represented. The study finds that due to the severity of current problems, if changes are not implemented, Pakistan will confront increasing political instability in the coming years. Centre of Development Studies Treasury funds (fees only)

A policy mechanism known as REDD+ (‘Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, and enhancing forest carbon stocks and conservation’) is designed to contribute to climate change mitigation efforts and simultaneously support developing countries’ national development agendas. This is effected by providing REDD+ host countries with financial incentives to produce measurable reductions in carbon emissions beyond what would have occurred without REDD+. Indonesia is a key target of the REDD+ mechanism for several reasons, eg: (i) its forests support 10% of the world's remaining tropical rain forests and represent the fourth largest forest carbon stock globally, (ii) 80% of its GHG emissions result from deforestation and forest degradation, and (iii) it has the potential to reduce up to 120 million tons of CO2 per year. Consequently, to date Indonesia has received donor’s commitments of nearly US$2 billion for REDD+ development. Given this profile, Indonesia’s success in implementing REDD+ can contribute significantly to the efficacy of REDD+ globally. However, achieving this potential is undermined by a set of long-standing problems inherent within Indonesia’s forest institutions, including issues of corruption, coordination, uncertainty in the forests’ legal system, capacity to manage forests at multiple levels of government, and the use of forest concessions to consolidate political power. This thesis asks the primary research question: “How do REDD+ institutions effect governance reform within Indonesia’s existing national and sub-national forest institutions?” 'Institutionalism', in particular the concept of 'institutional interplay' is the main conceptual framework deployed and grounded in the context of the vertical interplay between the internationally-formulated REDD+ mechanism and Indonesia's forest institutions. Guided by the themes that emerged from the data collected, this research explored and expanded certain analytical approaches within the perspectives of institutionalism and governance, namely ‘historical institutionalism’, ‘clientelism’, 'critical juncture', ‘policy networks’ and ‘social learning’. This thesis adopted the ‘four paper route’ and employed mixed methods of data collection (ie interview, shadowing, and policy document review). It found that during the process of institutional interplay as REDD+ institutions deployed the principles of good governance, advanced a robust system of measurement, reporting and verification of reductions in carbon emission, attracted large funding, and involved a broad range and multi-scale of actors, the REDD+ mechanism produced 'collateral benefits'. The tangible form of these benefits was the production of new policy instruments, eg the 'national REDD+ strategy' (paper 2), 'one map initiative' (paper 3), and ‘village agreement’ (paper 4) through which a significant body of evidence showed the capability of REDD+ to effect governance reform within and beyond Indonesia's forestry sector. Paper 1, revealed how policy actors perceived REDD+ and as such provides the basis of these three papers. The positive results of institutional interplay that occurred were determined not only by the characteristic of REDD+ institutions themselves but also by the existence of domestic reformists and the national reform agenda.

The EU has a consolidated climate and energy regulation: it played a pioneering role by adopting a wide range of climate change policies and establishing the first regional Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS). These policies, however, raise several concerns regarding both their environmental effectiveness and their potentially negative effect on the economy, especially in terms of growth and competitiveness. The paper reviews the European experience in order to understand if these concerns are supported by quantitative evidence. It thus focuses on key economic indicators, such as costs, competitiveness and carbon leakage as assessed by quantitative ex-ante and ex-post analyses. A dedicated section, extends the investigation to the potential extra-EU spillover of the EU mitigation policy with a particular attention to developing countries. The objective of the paper is to highlight both the limits and the opportunities of the EU regulatory framework in order to offer policy insights to emerging and developing countries that are on the way to implement climate change measures. Overall, the European experience shows that the worries about the costs and competitiveness losses induced by climate regulation are usually overestimated, especially in the long term. In addition, a tightening climate policy regime in the EU might in fact negatively impact developing countries via deteriorated trade relations. Nonetheless it tends to facilitate a resource relocation that if well governed could be beneficial to those countries where the poor are mainly involved in rural activities.

Despite noticeable improvements in recent socio-economic performance in Africa, variations exist across countries and performance is constrained by plethora of factors that inhibit the attainment of Africa’s optimum production potential. Changing climate and environmental factors have contributed to increased transactions costs, lower productivity of factors of production, increased bottlenecks in the production process and investment challenges, especially for small and medium scale farmers in varying degrees across the continent. This paper reviews the impact of climate change on farming activities in Africa. Four countries across the continent are studied, viz. Burkina Faso, Egypt, Kenya and South Africa. We examine how long-term profitability of 4,000 farms vary with local climate, such as temperature and precipitation. To better ascertain the impact of climate variables, the marginal impacts of unit changes in temperatures and precipitation on crop farming activities are studied. Using selected climate scenarios, predictions are made on the extent to which projected climate changes will affect net revenues by the year 2050 and 2100. The findings suggest that climate affects agricultural returns in the four countries. The results further show that there is a non-linear relationship between temperature and crop revenue on the one hand and between precipitation and crop revenue on the other. Overall, the temperature elasticity suggests that global warming is harmful for agriculture across all the countries. These have profound implications for the policy requirements to address the productive capacity and resilience of the agricultural sector. Effort will be required to enhance adaptation at farm, regional and national levels. Policy adjustments will in addition require increased liberalization of the financial system and an implementation of agriculture civil service reforms for better performance of the extension service. This may have further implications for state budgeting and agriculture sector expenditures which will without doubt require new shifts.