• Energy Research
• National Science Foundation close
• IN close
• BE close
• CN close

AbstractThe current extinction and climate change crises pressure us to predict population dynamics with ever‐greater accuracy. Although predictions rest on the well‐advanced theory of age‐structured populations, two key issues remain poorly explored. Specifically, how the age‐dependency in demographic rates and the year‐to‐year interactions between survival and fecundity affect stochastic population growth rates. We use inference, simulations and mathematical derivations to explore how environmental perturbations determine population growth rates for populations with different age‐specific demographic rates and when ages are reduced to stages. We find that stage‐ vs. age‐based models can produce markedly divergent stochastic population growth rates. The differences are most pronounced when there are survival‐fecundity‐trade‐offs, which reduce the variance in the population growth rate. Finally, the expected value and variance of the stochastic growth rates of populations with different age‐specific demographic rates can diverge to the extent that, while some populations may thrive, others will inevitably go extinct.

The long-term application of road salts has led to a rise in surface water chloride (Cl-) concentrations. While models have been used to assess the potential future impacts of continued deicing practices, prior approaches have not incorporated changes in climate that are projected to impact hydrogeology in the 21st century. We use an INtegrated CAtchment (INCA) model to simulate Cl- concentrations in the Tioughnioga River watershed. The model was run over a baseline period (1961-1990) and climate simulations from a range of GCMs run over three 30-year intervals (2010-2039; 2040-2069; 2070-2099). Model projections suggest that Cl- concentrations in the two river branches will continue to rise for several decades, before beginning to decline around 2040-2069, with all GCM scenarios indicating reductions in snowfall and associated salt applications over the 21st century. The delay in stream response is most likely attributed to climate change and continued contribution of Cl- from aquifers. By 2100, surface water Cl- concentrations will decrease to below 1960s values. Catchments dominated by urban lands will experience a decrease in average surface water Cl-, although moderate compared to more rural catchments.

Abstract Background Gap models are individual-based models for forests. They simulate dynamic multispecies assemblages over multiple tree-generations and predict forest responses to altered environmental conditions. Their development emphases designation of the significant biological and ecological processes at appropriate time/space scales. Conceptually, they are with consistent with A.G. Tansley’s original definition of “the ecosystem”. Results An example microscale application inspects feedbacks among terrestrial vegetation change, air-quality changes from the vegetation’s release of volatile organic compounds (VOC), and climate change effects on ecosystem production of VOC’s. Gap models can allocate canopy photosynthate to the individual trees whose leaves form the vertical leaf-area profiles. VOC release depends strongly on leaf physiology by species of these trees. Leaf-level VOC emissions increase with climate-warming. Species composition change lowers the abundance of VOC-emitting taxa. In interactions among ecosystem functions and biosphere/atmosphere exchanges, community composition responses can outweigh physiological responses. This contradicts previous studies that emphasize the warming-induced impacts on leaf function. As a mesoscale example, the changes in climate (warming) on forests including pest-insect dynamics demonstrates changes on the both the tree and the insect populations. This is but one of many cases that involve using a gap model to simulate changes in spatial units typical of sampling plots and scaling these to landscape and regional levels. As this is the typical application scale for gap models, other examples are identified. The insect/climate-change can be scaled to regional consequences by simulating survey plots across a continental or subcontinental zone. Forest inventories at these scales are often conducted using independent survey plots distributed across a region. Model construction that mimics this sample design avoids the difficulties in modelling spatial interactions, but we also discuss simulation at these scales with contagion effects. Conclusions At the global-scale, successful simulations to date have used functional types of plants, rather than tree species. In a final application, the fine-scale predictions of a gap model are compared with data from micrometeorological eddy-covariance towers and then scaled-up to produce maps of global patterns of evapotranspiration, net primary production, gross primary production and respiration. New active-remote-sensing instruments provide opportunities to test these global predictions.

Soil organisms are a crucial part of the terrestrial biosphere. Despite their importance for ecosystem functioning, few quantitative, spatially explicit models of the active belowground community currently exist. In particular, nematodes are the most abundant animals on Earth, filling all trophic levels in the soil food web. Here we use 6,759 georeferenced samples to generate a mechanistic understanding of the patterns of the global abundance of nematodes in the soil and the composition of their functional groups. The resulting maps show that 4.4 ± 0.64 × 1020 nematodes (with a total biomass of approximately 0.3 gigatonnes) inhabit surface soils across the world, with higher abundances in sub-Arctic regions (38% of total) than in temperate (24%) or tropical (21%) regions. Regional variations in these global trends also provide insights into local patterns of soil fertility and functioning. These high-resolution models provide the first steps towards representing soil ecological processes in global biogeochemical models and will enable the prediction of elemental cycling under current and future climate scenarios.

ABSTRACTPotassium (K) is the second most abundant nutrient element in plants after nitrogen (N), and has been shown to limit aboveground production in some contexts. However, the role of N and phosphorus (P) availability in mediating K limitation in terrestrial production remains poorly understood; and it is unknown whether K also limits belowground carbon (C) stocks, which contain at least three times more C than those aboveground stocks. By synthesizing 779 global paired observations (528, 125, and 126 for aboveground productivity, root biomass, and soil organic C [SOC], respectively), we found that K addition significantly increased aboveground production and SOC by 8% and 5%, respectively, but did not significantly affect root biomass (+9%). Moreover, enhanced N and/or P availability (through N and P addition) did not further amplify the positive effect of K on aboveground productivity. In other words, K had a positive effect on aboveground productivity only when N and/or P were limiting, indicating that K could somehow substitute for N or P when they were limiting. Climate variables mostly explained the variations in K effects; specifically, stronger positive responses of aboveground productivity and SOC to K were found in regions with high mean annual temperature and wetness. Our results suggest that K addition enhances C sequestration by increasing both aboveground productivity and SOC, contributing to climate mitigation, but the positive effects of K on terrestrial C stocks are not further amplified when N and P limitations are alleviated.

With high capacity at low cost, Li- and Mn-rich (LMR) layered oxides are a promising class of cathodes for next-generation Li-ion batteries. However, substantial voltage decay during cycling, due to the unstable Li2MnO3 honeycomb structure, is still an obstacle to their practical deployment. Here we report a Co-free LMR Li-ion battery cathode with negligible voltage decay. The material has a composite structure consisting of layered LiTMO2 and various stacked Li2MnO3 components, where transition metal (TM) ions that reside in the Li layers of Li2MnO3 form caps to strengthen the stability of the honeycomb structure. This capped-honeycomb structure is persistent after high-voltage cycling and prevents TM migration and oxygen loss as shown by experimental and computational results. This work demonstrates that the long-standing voltage decay problem in LMRs can be effectively mitigated by internally pinning the honeycomb structure, which opens an avenue to developing next-generation high-energy cathode materials.