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In this study, we analyze the mechanism of the future change of a occurrence frequency of Guerrilla-heavy rainfall in the Kinki region in August by focusing on the future change of lapse rate and water vapor inflow using a 5km-mesh regional climate model (RCM05). From the analysis, we show the frequency of days will increase when Showalter Stability Index (SSI), which expresses atmospheric stability, becomes lower in the Kinki region in late August although lapse rate will decrease. Lower SSI means that atmosphere is unstable. Then we show that the reason of destabilization of SSI is the increase of water vapor in lower layer. Finally, we use Self-Organizing Map (SOM), which is one cluster classification method, to reveal the main reason of the increase of water vapor in the lower layer in late August. The results show the wind field which blows from the Pacific to the Kinki region is increasing, and this explains rich water vapor flux is supplied to the Kinki region.

本研究では, 琵琶湖プロジェクトの常設熱収支観測システムで得られたデータを解析・処理し, 湖面と水田の1年分のデータセットを1時間単位で作成した。さらに, 2次物理量である熱フラックス各成分も算定し, 湖面・水田における熱収支および水収支の日変化, 季節変化について評価・検討した。次に湖面, 水田に関する陸面過程モデルを用いて数値シミュレーションを実行し, モデルパラメータの決定や感度分析を行った。観測値とモデル計算値を比較して, これらの陸面過程スキームが日変化, 季節変化とも比較的良好に再現できることを確認した。 ; In this study, data from continuous flux measurement system in the Lake Biwa Project were processed and analyzed to produce the full-year dataset for the lake and paddy field with one hour time increment.Then, heat fluxes (2nd order product) were also calculated. The diurnal and seasonal variations of energy and water budget characteristics were expressed and discussed.Also, numerical experiments by land-surface schemes for the lake surface and paddy field were carried out. Through the comparison of observed data and simulation results, these schemes were tested and validated to reproduce the diurnal and seasonal cycle relatively well. ; 本研究では,琵琶湖プロジェクトの常設熱収支観測システムで得られたデータを解析・処理し,湖面と水田の1年分のデータセットを1時間単位で作成した。さらに,2次物理量である熱フラックス各成分も算定し,湖面・水田における熱収支および水収支の日変化,季節変化について評価・検討した。次に湖面,水田に関する陸面過程モデルを用いて数値シミュレーションを実行し,モデルパラメータの決定や感度分析を行った。観測値とモデル計算値を比較して,これらの陸面過程スキームが日変化,季節変化とも比較的良好に再現できることを確認した。 ; In this study, data from continuous flux measurement system in the Lake Biwa Project were processed and analyzed to produce the full-year dataset for the lake and paddy field with one hour time increment.Then, heat fluxes (2nd order product) were also calculated. The diurnal and seasonal variations of energy and water budget characteristics were expressed and discussed.Also, numerical experiments by land-surface schemes for the lake surface and paddy field were carried out. Through the comparison of observed data and simulation results, these schemes were tested and validated to reproduce the diurnal and seasonal cycle relatively well.

京都市の深泥池には，高層湿原の浮島が存在し，動植物の希少種が豊富であるためその生物群集全体が天然記念物に指定されている。しかし，集水域の開発による涵養水減少や富栄養化の進行が保全上の問題となっている。深泥池にとっての健全な水環境を維持するためには，現在の深泥池の水・熱循環を知るとともに集水域面積や植生様式が変化した場合の水・物質収支を予測する必要がある。そこで本研究では，深泥池の富栄養化過程を伴う植生様式の変化を航空写真の画像解析によって明らかにした上で，浮島や抽水植物の植生別面積を考慮した水・熱循環の特性を現地観測によって明らかにした。その結果，浮島の存在が水温変動を緩和する効果を有していることが明らかとなった。これは，浮島が1年を通しての浮沈運動に伴って熱容量を変化させる，という性質を有することに起因すると考えられた。また，池からの蒸発散量が植生割合の変化に伴って変化することが分かった。その結果，過去と比較して現在は，池からの蒸発散量が減少している可能性があることが示された。 ; To clarify and quantify the energy and water balance of Mizoro-ga-ike Pond, observation system for collecting micrometeorological elements and related hydrological elements has been set up from the beginning of 2005. Comparing the mean daily water temperature, the range of annual fluctuation(max-min) was 18.5℃ at floating island and was 23℃ at open water. This difference shows a thermal insulation effect of floating island which can mild the temperature of the pond. In addition, so that the floating island moves ups and downs through the year, heat capacity changes at each month. It is clarified that water and the heat circulation of Mizoro-ga-ike Pond have uniqueness because of the existence of the floating island. In addition, so that the floating island moves ups and downs through the year, heat capacity changes at each month. Moreover, it has been understood that there is a possibility that the amount of the evaporation decreases. ; 京都市の深泥池には，高層湿原の浮島が存在し，動植物の希少種が豊富であるためその生物群集全体が天然記念物に指定されている。しかし，集水域の開発による涵養水減少や富栄養化の進行が保全上の問題となっている。深泥池にとっての健全な水環境を維持するためには，現在の深泥池の水・熱循環を知るとともに集水域面積や植生様式が変化した場合の水・物質収支を予測する必要がある。そこで本研究では，深泥池の富栄養化過程を伴う植生様式の変化を航空写真の画像解析によって明らかにした上で，浮島や抽水植物の植生別面積を考慮した水・熱循環の特性を現地観測によって明らかにした。その結果，浮島の存在が水温変動を緩和する効果を有していることが明らかとなった。これは，浮島が1年を通しての浮沈運動に伴って熱容量を変化させる，という性質を有することに起因すると考えられた。また，池からの蒸発散量が植生割合の変化に伴って変化することが分かった。その結果，過去と比較して現在は，池からの蒸発散量が減少している可能性があることが示された。 ; To clarify and quantify the energy and water balance of Mizoro-ga-ike Pond, observation system for collecting micrometeorological elements and related hydrological elements has been set up from the ...

This study investigated future changes of a certain atmospheric characteristic, which can cause localized heavy rainfall events during Baiu season along the Japan islands. In this study, we have utilized Self-organizing map (SOM) to classify atmospheric conditions automatically and to distinguish the specific condition objectively. We have analyzed frequency of the specific atmospheric condition under the future climate as well as the present climate, and evaluated the statistical significance of frequency changes under the future climate based on ensemble experiments output with 60km resolution GCM(MRI-AGCM3.2H). By counting the number of times for the specific atmospheric condition, it is able to estimate possible changes of localized heavy rainfall pattern in the future. Our approach shows one of example that even small scale of localized heavy rainfall can be captured by considering characterized atmospheric conditions in large scale. ; This study investigated future changes of a certain atmospheric characteristic, which can cause localized heavy rainfall events during Baiu season along the Japan islands. In this study, we have utilized Self-organizing map (SOM) to classify atmospheric conditions automatically and to distinguish the specific condition objectively. We have analyzed frequency of the specific atmospheric condition under the future climate as well as the present climate, and evaluated the statistical significance of frequency changes under the future climate based on ensemble experiments output with 60km resolution GCM(MRI-AGCM3.2H). By counting the number of times for the specific atmospheric condition, it is able to estimate possible changes of localized heavy rainfall pattern in the future. Our approach shows one of example that even small scale of localized heavy rainfall can be captured by considering characterized atmospheric conditions in large scale.

10例の膀胱癌症例に対し, エタノール加ペプロマイシン灌流による膀胱癌温熱療法を施行し, うち6例に25%以上の腫瘍縮小効果が認められた.しかし腫瘍の完全消失例が認められなかったことにより, 本療法による根治性は否定的と考えられた ; Distilled water containing 40 micrograms/ml peplomycin and 2% ethanol was used as a perfusate in 8 patients with superficial bladder tumors and 2 with deep bladder tumors for 2 hours at 43 degrees C. In addition, immediately before the perfusion treatment, 5 mg of peplomycin was injected intramuscularly. Prior to treatment, the nature and extent of the tumors were determined by ultrasonography, cystoscopy and cystography. The therapeutic effect of the hyperthermic perfusion was evaluated by the same manner as used previously. Partial tumor regression was obtained in 6 of the 8 patients with superficial bladder tumors. The 2 patients with deep bladder tumors showed no tumor regression. Most of the patients had bladder discomfort such as irritation, pollakisuria and so on, during and/or after perfusion. No patient developed acute pyelonephritis.

Climate change can influence human health in various ways. The influence on infectious diseases is considered particularly important. This chapter deals with the application of an area informatics approach to study in the medical field, particularly the epidemiology of infectious diseases. In recent years, models to predict the effects of climate change on the incidence of infectious diseases in certain areas using time and space as "rulers" have been developed. This approach appears to be applicable to all infectious diseases if important factors mediating the transfer of the effects of climate change to the incidence of infectious disease and the mediation mechanism are understood.Infection is based on the relationship between the host and its parasite (pathogen). In some cases, an intermediate host(s) and/or vector(s) may also be involved in the establishment of infection. All the biological factors involved in infection are influenced individually by climate change. It is important to take the route of transmission of each infectious disease and all biological factors involved in its transmission into consideration when evaluating the effect of climate change on infectious diseases.In this paper, an overview of the importance of climate change effects on infectious diseases is followed by an explanation of representative infectious diseases transmitted through oral,respiratory and skin routes and direct contact and the possible effects of climate change on these infectious diseases. These explanations help the reader understand the important factors involved in the transfer of climate change effects. Next, the direct effect of climate change on the host is considered, with an explanation of some models used to predict change in the risk map(geographical distribution of pathogens or vectors) due to future climate change. In addition, a model we developed to predict future cholera epidemics using local climate data is introduced.Finally, the extent to which climate change studies overlap area informatics is ...

Makio dam in the Kiso River is a multipurpose dam which generates hydroelectric power and supplies water to Aichi Irrigation Project. Reservoir sedimentation increased in the Dam because of Nagano West Earthquake in 1984. It cost about 3 million yen to recover active storage capacity in 1996 by excavating deposited sediments. In the future, flow regime is going to change due to global warming which will have another impact on water resources management. In this study, we assessed multiple effects of the several reservoir sedimentation scenarios and future inflow changes calculated by GCM model and distributed hydrological model (Hydro-BEAM). Regarding hydroelectric power generation, annual total generation can be almost maintained by modifying seasonal dam operation rule. However, water supply to the Aichi Irrigation Project will be subject to severe damage mainly by the loss of active storage volume and additionally by future flow regime change. ; Makio dam in the Kiso River is a multipurpose dam which generates hydroelectric power and supplies water to Aichi Irrigation Project. Reservoir sedimentation increased in the Dam because of Nagano West Earthquake in 1984. It cost about 3 million yen to recover active storage capacity in 1996 by excavating deposited sediments. In the future, flow regime is going to change due to global warming which will have another impact on water resources management. In this study, we assessed multiple effects of the several reservoir sedimentation scenarios and future inflow changes calculated by GCM model and distributed hydrological model (Hydro-BEAM). Regarding hydroelectric power generation, annual total generation can be almost maintained by modifying seasonal dam operation rule. However, water supply to the Aichi Irrigation Project will be subject to severe damage mainly by the loss of active storage volume and additionally by future flow regime change.

河川表流水を資源として利用・開発・配分する場合，河川流域内の場所的・時間的な流出形態を量的に把握また予測することが重要であり，それが水資源の計画・管理問題への基本情報を提供する。本報では，筆者がこれまで研究対象としてきた，降水・流出系のモデル解析，熱的水文現象の観測とモデル化，河川流況をベースにした水循環システム研究について概説するとともに，今後の総合的な水資源管理に向けた展望を述べる。 ; Quantitative understanding and prediction of the spatial-temporal pattern of runoff process is important for the utilization, development, and allocation of the river water resources. It provides the basic information to water resources planning and management. In this report, author's research activities, such as modeling and analysis of rainfall-runoff system, observation and modeling of energy balance, systems approach on water cycle based on river discharge, are briefly summarized. Future perspective toward the holistic water resources management is stated in the last part.

In recent years, there have been flush flood damages caused by localized heavy rainfall, called ‘Guerrilla-heavy rainfall’ in urban areas in Japan. It has been pointed out that increasing rainfall events today can be due to global warming. Therefore, it is necessary to project the future changes of the frequency of such kind of rainfall events. In this study, we implemented some fundamental analysis in August in the Kinki Region, from the view point of both the rainfall distribution and the unstable atmospheric condition. First, we picked up guerrilla heavy rainfall events with visual judgement of rainfall distribution. Then, we analyzed the atmospheric stability of the events that was picked up, using a parameter SSI (Showalter Stability Index). As a result of T-test on the future changes, the trend of future change in the number of guerrilla-heavy rainfall events is similar to that of the number of unstable events. ; In recent years, there have been flush flood damages caused by localized heavy rainfall, called ‘Guerrilla-heavy rainfall’ in urban areas in Japan. It has been pointed out that increasing rainfall events today can be due to global warming. Therefore, it is necessary to project the future changes of the frequency of such kind of rainfall events. In this study, we implemented some fundamental analysis in August in the Kinki Region, from the view point of both the rainfall distribution and the unstable atmospheric condition. First, we picked up guerrilla heavy rainfall events with visual judgement of rainfall distribution. Then, we analyzed the atmospheric stability of the events that was picked up, using a parameter SSI (Showalter Stability Index). As a result of T-test on the future changes, the trend of future change in the number of guerrilla-heavy rainfall events is similar to that of the number of unstable events.

気候変動に伴う木曽三川流域における河川流量の将来変化を明らかにするために, 複数の将来気候予測情報を用いて分布型流出モデル(Hydro-BEAM)による流出解析を行い, 流域内の複数地点における現在流況との比較を試みた。また, 上流域のダム群による貯水池操作の影響についても考慮するため, 簡易な貯水池操作モデルを構築した。その結果, 木曽川下流域における河川流量の再現性が大幅に向上し, 将来の気候変動が河川流量に与える影響は流域内で一様ではなく, 洪水や渇水のリスクが流域内で大きく異なることが明らかになった。 ; To clarify the hydrological impact of climate change on water resources management and adaptation measures for river disaster prevention in a regional scale, a super high resolution AGCM20 and CMIP3 multi model dataset are applied to the Kiso three rivers basin as an input data for a distributed hydrological model (Hydro-BEAM) with storage reservoir. The results shows that the uncertainties of the future projection caused by a relatively coarse resolution current conventional GCMs can be decreased significantly by a simple multi-model ensemble approach applied in this study. ; 気候変動に伴う木曽三川流域における河川流量の将来変化を明らかにするために, 複数の将来気候予測情報を用いて分布型流出モデル(Hydro-BEAM)による流出解析を行い, 流域内の複数地点における現在流況との比較を試みた。また, 上流域のダム群による貯水池操作の影響についても考慮するため, 簡易な貯水池操作モデルを構築した。その結果, 木曽川下流域における河川流量の再現性が大幅に向上し, 将来の気候変動が河川流量に与える影響は流域内で一様ではなく, 洪水や渇水のリスクが流域内で大きく異なることが明らかになった。 ; To clarify the hydrological impact of climate change on water resources management and adaptation measures for river disaster prevention in a regional scale, a super high resolution AGCM20 and CMIP3 multi model dataset are applied to the Kiso three rivers basin as an input data for a distributed hydrological model (Hydro-BEAM) with storage reservoir. The results shows that the uncertainties of the future projection caused by a relatively coarse resolution current conventional GCMs can be decreased significantly by a simple multi-model ensemble approach applied in this study.