• Energy Research
• 2021-2025close
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Efficient integration of solar energy into the electricity mix depends on a reliable anticipation of its intermittency. A promising approach to forecast the temporal variability of solar irradiance resulting from the cloud cover dynamics is based on the analysis of sequences of ground-taken sky images or satellite observations. Despite encouraging results, a recurrent limitation of existing deep learning approaches lies in the ubiquitous tendency of reacting to past observations rather than actively anticipating future events. This leads to a frequent temporal lag and limited ability to predict sudden events. To address this challenge, we introduce ECLIPSE, a spatio-temporal neural network architecture that models cloud motion from sky images to not only predict future irradiance levels and associated uncertainties, but also segmented images, which provide richer information on the local irradiance map. We show that ECLIPSE anticipates critical events and reduces temporal delay while generating visually realistic futures. The model characteristics and properties are investigated with an ablation study and a comparative study on the benefits and different ways to integrate auxiliary data into the modelling. The model predictions are also interpreted through an analysis of the principal spatio-temporal components learned during network training. Manuscript accepted for publication in Applied Energy

Abstract The urge to increase renewable energy penetration into the power supply mix has been frequently highlighted in response to climate change. South Korea was analyzed as a case study for which the government has shown motivation to increase renewable energy penetration. Herein, a hybrid renewable energy system (HRES) including solar and wind energies were selected due to their relatively stable and mature technology. In addition, Power-to-X has been incorporated to cover other renewable energy options such as hydrogen and synthetic natural gas (SNG). Therefore, an approach of forecasting the weather characteristics and demand loading over a relatively long timeframe was implemented via deep learning techniques (LSTM and GRU) and statistical approaches (Fbprophet and SARIMA), respectively. A deployment strategy incorporating HRES and Power-to-X is then proposed in correspondence to the forecasted results of the 15 regions considered in this study. An extension of this, the reliability of the designed system is further assessed based on the probability of the demand losses with the aid of Monte-Carlo simulation. With the proposed deployment strategy, a total annual cost of 9.88 × 1011 $/year and a greenhouse gas reduction of 1.24 × 106 tons/year are expected for a 35% renewable energy penetration. However, only SNG shows relatively competitive cost (at 23.20 $/m3 SNG), whereas the average costs of electricity (0.133 $/kWh) and hydrogen (7.784 $/kg H2) across the regions are yet to be competitive compared to the current market prices. Nonetheless, the priority of deployment across regions has been identified via TOPSIS.

Thin-film photovoltaics (PV) cells offer several benefits over conventional first-generation PV technologies, including lighter weight, flexibility, and lower power generation cost. Among the competing thin-film technologies, chalcogenide solar cells offer promising performance on efficiency and technological maturity level. However, in order to appraise the performance of the technology thoroughly, issues such as raw materials scarcity, toxicity, and environmental impacts need to be investigated in detail. This paper therefore, for the first time, presents a cradle to gate life cycle assessment for four different emerging chalcogenide PV cells, and compares their results with copper zinc tin sulfide (CZTS) and the commercially available CIGS to examine their effectiveness in reducing the environmental impacts associated with PV technologies. To allow for a full range of indicators, life cycle assessment methods CML 2001, IMPACT 2002+, and ILCD 2011 were used to analyse the results. The results identify environmental hotspots associated with different materials and components and demonstrate that using current efficiencies, the environmental impact of copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) for generating 1kWh electricity was lower than that of the other studied cells. However, at comparable efficiencies the antimony-based cells offered the lowest environmental impacts in all impact categories. The effect of materials used was also found to be lower than the impact of electricity consumed throughout the manufacturing process, with the absorber layer contributing the most to the majority of the impact categories examined. In terms of chemicals consumed, cadmium acetate contributed significantly to the majority of the environmental impacts. Stainless steel in the substrate/insulating layer and molybdenum in the back contact both contributed considerably to the toxicity and ozone depletion impact categories. This paper demonstrates considerable environmental benefits associated with non-toxic chalcogenide PV cells suggesting that the current environmental concerns can be addressed effectively using alternative materials and manufacturing techniques if current efficiencies are improved. Peer Reviewed