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Data and GrADS scripts needed to reproduce the figures in the article "Probabilistic forecasts of near-term climate change: verification for temperature and precipitation changes from years 1971-2000 to 2011-2020", submitted for publication in Climate Dynamics. Please see the file README for further details.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.AerChemMIP.HAMMOZ-Consortium.MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The MPI-ESM1.2-HAM climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: HAM2.3, atmos: ECHAM6.3 (spectral T63; 192 x 96 longitude/latitude; 47 levels; top level 0.01 hPa), atmosChem: sulfur chemistry (unnamed), land: JSBACH 3.20, ocean: MPIOM1.63 (bipolar GR1.5, approximately 1.5deg; 256 x 220 longitude/latitude; 40 levels; top grid cell 0-12 m), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC6, seaIce: unnamed (thermodynamic (Semtner zero-layer) dynamic (Hibler 79) sea ice model). The model was run by the ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Max Planck Institut fur Meteorologie, Germany; Forschungszentrum Julich, Germany; University of Oxford, UK; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland; Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Germany; Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) at ETH Zurich, Switzerland (HAMMOZ-Consortium) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 250 km, ocnBgchem: 250 km, seaIce: 250 km.

Project: IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Supplementary data sets for the Sixth Assessment Report - For the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC (AR6) input/source and intermediate datasets underlying the AR6 were collected and long-term archived. This project compliments CMIP6 data subset and snapshot analyzed for the WGI AR6. Summary: This data set contains detailed elements the sea level projections associated with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report. In particular, it contains relative sea level projections that exclude the background term (representing primarily land subsidence or uplift). It includes probability distributions for all the workflows described in AR6 WGI 9.6.3.2. P-boxes derived from these distributions are available in the sister entry 'IPCC-DDC_AR6_Sup_PBox'. These data may be of use for users who want to substitute their own estimates of the background term. Regional projections can also be accessed through the NASA/IPCC Sea Level Projections Tool at https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool. See https://zenodo.org/communities/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projections for additional related data sets.

This dataset contains spatial predictions of the potential environmental spaces for pingos, ice-wedge polygons and rock glaciers across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost areas. The potential environmental spaces, i.e. conditions where climate, topography and soil properties are suitable for landform presence, were predicted with statistical ensemble modelling employing geospatial data on environmental conditions at 30 arc-second resolution (~1 km). In addition to the baseline period (1950-2000), the predictions are provided for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 using climate-forcing scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). The resulting dataset consists of five spatial predictions for each landform in GeoTIFF format.The data provide new information on 1) the fine-scale spatial distribution of permafrost landforms in the Northern Hemisphere, 2) the potential future alterations in the environmental suitability for permafrost landforms due to climate change, and 3) the circumpolar distribution of various ground ice types, and can 4) facilitate efforts to inventory permafrost landforms in incompletely mapped areas.

Figure 1data_Exp 2Figure 1 data: Condition of experimental seedlings in hummocks with contrasting shrub density and tree canopy in Experiment 2: No Trees - Low Shrub biomass (NTLS), No Trees - High Shrub biomass (NTHS), Present Trees - Low Shrub biomass (PTLS) and Present Trees - High shrub biomass (PTHS) during the warmest growing season (2011) and at the end of the experiment (2013). Seedling condition was defined as: healthy (< 50% of the needles turned yellow or brown) or unhealthy (> 50% of the needles turned yellow or brown). Seedlings were 1 month old at plantation time in the July 2010.Table 1_environmental conditions_Exp 1Table 1 data: Environmental conditions and vegetation characteristics in hummocks (circular and bands) and lawns for Experiment 1. Water table depth below surface is an average for the four growing seasons (2010-2013)Table 2_ photosynthesis data_Exp 1Table 2 photosynthesis data: Photosynthesis rates for experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) versus adjacent lawns for Experiment 1.Table 2_seedling responses_Exp 1Table 2 data: Responses of experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) versus adjacent lawns for Experiment 1 after 4 growing seasons. ST: Seeds inserted on top of moss; SB: Seeds inserted below moss; Small seedling (1 month old at plantation time); Large seedling (2 months old at plantation time). Emergence = % of planted seeds emerged after 1 year. Condition = % healthy seedlings. Stem growth corresponds to vertical stem growth for germinating (ST and SB) seedlings and new stem growth for older (small and large) seedlings.Table 3_regression seedling-environment_Exp 1Table 3 data for generalized linear models assessing the responses of experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) and adjacent lawns for Experiment 1 during the whole experimental period (2010-2013). ST: Seedlings from seeds inserted on top of moss; SB: Seedlings from seeds inserted below moss; Small seedling (1 month old at plantation time); Large seedling (2 months old at plantation time). Condition = % healthy seedlings. Growth = stem growth.Table 4_Environmental data_Exp 2Table 4: Environmental conditions in hummocks with contrasting shrub density and tree canopy in Experiment 2: No Trees - Low Shrub biomass (NTLS), No Trees - High Shrub biomass (NTHS), Present Trees - Low Shrub biomass (PTLS) and Present Trees - High shrub biomass (PTHS).Table 4 and Table S5a_seedling performance_Exp 2Table 4: Seedling performance in hummocks with contrasting shrub density and tree canopy in Experiment 2: No Trees - Low Shrub biomass (NTLS), No Trees - High Shrub biomass (NTHS), Present Trees - Low Shrub biomass (PTLS) and Present Trees - High shrub biomass (PTHS). Seedling emergence, condition and survival from seeds inserted below the moss (SB), and from small planted seedlings.Table S3_cox regression (survival analysis)_Exp 1Table S3: Data for Cox survival analysis for experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) versus adjacent lawns during 2010-2013. ST: Seedlings from seeds inserted on top of moss; SB: Seedlings from seeds inserted below moss; Small seedling (1 month old, 10 cm tall at plantation time); Large seedling (2 months old, 30 cm tall at plantation time).Table S4_ regression seedling-environment 2011_Exp 1Table S4: Data for generalized linear models assessing the responses of experimental pine seedlings in hummocks (circular and bands) and adjacent lawns for Experiment 1 in 2011. Small seedling (1 month old, 10 cm tall at plantation time); Large seedling (2 months old, 30 cm tall at plantation time). Condition = % healthy seedlings. Growth = stem growth. Boreal ecosystems are warming roughly twice as fast as the global average, resulting in woody expansion that could further speed up the climate warming. Boreal peatbogs are waterlogged systems that store more than 30% of the global soil carbon. Facilitative effects of shrubs and trees on the establishment of new individuals could increase tree cover with profound consequences for the structure and functioning of boreal peatbogs, carbon sequestration and climate. We conducted two field experiments in boreal peatbogs to assess the mechanisms that explain tree seedling recruitment and to estimate the strength of positive feedbacks between shrubs and trees. We planted seeds and seedlings of Pinus sylvestris in microsites with contrasting water-tables and woody cover and manipulated both shrub canopy and root competition. We monitored seedling emergence, growth and survival for up to four growing seasons and assessed how seedling responses related to abiotic and biotic conditions. We found that tree recruitment is more successful in drier topographical microsites with deeper water-tables. On these hummocks, shrubs have both positive and negative effects on tree seedling establishment. Shrub cover improved tree seedling condition, growth and survival during the warmest growing season. In turn, higher tree basal area correlates positively with soil nutrient availability, shrub biomass and abundance of tree juveniles. Synthesis. Our results suggest that shrubs facilitate tree colonization of peatbogs which further increases shrub growth. These facilitative effects seem to be stronger under warmer conditions suggesting that a higher frequency of warmer and dry summers may lead to stronger positive interactions between shrubs and trees that could eventually facilitate a shift from moss to tree-dominated systems.

Energy Climate dataset consistent with ENTSO-E Pan-European Climatic Database (PECD 2021.3) in CSV and netCDF format TL;DR: this is a nationally aggregated hourly dataset for the capacity factors per unit installed capacity for storage hydropower plants and run-of-river hydropower plants in the European region. All the data is provided for 30 climatic years (1981-2010). Method Description The hydro inflow data is based on historical river runoff reanalysis data simulated by the E-HYPE model. E-HYPE is a pan-European model developed by The Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), which describes hydrological processes including flow paths at the subbasin level. E-hype only provides the time series of daily river runoff entering the inlet of each European subbasin over 1981-2010. To match the operational resolution of the dispatch model, we linearly downscale these time series to hourly. By summing up runoff associated with the inlet subbasins of each country, we also obtain the country-level river runoff. The hydro inflow time series per country is defined as the normalized energy inflows (per unit installed capacity of hydropower) embodied in the country-level river runoff. A dispatch model can be used to decides whether the energy inflows are actually used for electricity generation, stored, or spilled (in case the storage reservoir is already full). Data coverage This dataset considers two types of hydropower plants, namely storage hydropower plant (STO) and run-of-river hydropower plant (ROR). Not all countries have both types of hydropower plants installed (see table). The countries and their acronyms for both technologies included in this dataset are: Country Run-of-River Storage Austria AT_ROR AT_STO Belgium BE_ROR BE_STO Bulgaria BG_ROR BG_STO Switzerland CH_ROR CH_STO Cyprus CZ_ROR CZ_STO Germany DE_ROR DE_STO Denmark DK_ROR Estonia EE_ROR Greece EL_ROR EL_STO Spain ES_ROR ES_STO Finland FI_ROR FI_STO France FR_ROR FR_STO Great Britain GB_ROR GB_STO Croatia HR_ROR HR_STO Hungary HU_ROR HU_STO Ireland IE_ROR IE_STO Italy IT_ROR IT_STO Luxembourg LU_ROR Latvia LV_ROR the Netherlands NL_ROR Norway NO_ROR NO_STO Poland PL_ROR PL_STO Portugal PT_ROR PT_STO Romania RO_ROR RO_STO Sweden SE_ROR SE_STO Slovenia SI_ROR SI_STO Slovakia SK_ROR SK_STO Data structure description The files is provided in CSV (.csv) format with a comma (,) as separator and double-quote mark (") as text indicator. The first row stores the column labels. The columns contain the following: first column (or A) contains the row number Label: unlabeled Contents: interger range [1,262968] second column (or B) contains the valid-time Label: T1h Contents represent time with text as [DD/MM/YYYY HH:MM]) column 3-52 (or C-AY) each contain the capacity factor for each valid combination of a country and hydropower plant type Label: XX_YYY the two letter country code (XX) and the hydropower plant type (YYY) acronym for storage hydropower plant (STO) and run-of-river hydropower plant (ROR) Contents represent the capacity factor as a floating value in the range [0,1], the decimal separator is a point (.). DISCLAIMER: the content of this dataset has been created with the greatest possible care. However, we invite to use the original data for critical applications and studies. The raw hydro data was generated as part of 'Evaluating sediment Delivery Impacts on Reservoirs in changing climaTe and society across scales and sectors (DIRT-X)', this project and therefor, Jing hu, received funding from the European Research Area Network (ERA-NET) under grant number 438.19.902. Laurens P. Stoop received funding from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) under Grant No. 647.003.005.

Project: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets - These data have been generated as part of the internationally-coordinated Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6; see also GMD Special Issue: http://www.geosci-model-dev.net/special_issue590.html). The simulation data provides a basis for climate research designed to answer fundamental science questions and serves as resource for authors of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR6). CMIP6 is a project coordinated by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) as part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). Phase 6 builds on previous phases executed under the leadership of the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and relies on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and the Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) along with numerous related activities for implementation. The original data is hosted and partially replicated on a federated collection of data nodes, and most of the data relied on by the IPCC is being archived for long-term preservation at the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (IPCC DDC) hosted by the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ). The project includes simulations from about 120 global climate models and around 45 institutions and organizations worldwide. Summary: These data include the subset used by IPCC AR6 WGI authors of the datasets originally published in ESGF for 'CMIP6.CMIP.HAMMOZ-Consortium.MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM.historical' with the full Data Reference Syntax following the template 'mip_era.activity_id.institution_id.source_id.experiment_id.member_id.table_id.variable_id.grid_label.version'. The MPI-ESM1.2-HAM climate model, released in 2017, includes the following components: aerosol: HAM2.3, atmos: ECHAM6.3 (spectral T63; 192 x 96 longitude/latitude; 47 levels; top level 0.01 hPa), atmosChem: sulfur chemistry (unnamed), land: JSBACH 3.20, ocean: MPIOM1.63 (bipolar GR1.5, approximately 1.5deg; 256 x 220 longitude/latitude; 40 levels; top grid cell 0-12 m), ocnBgchem: HAMOCC6, seaIce: unnamed (thermodynamic (Semtner zero-layer) dynamic (Hibler 79) sea ice model). The model was run by the ETH Zurich, Switzerland; Max Planck Institut fur Meteorologie, Germany; Forschungszentrum Julich, Germany; University of Oxford, UK; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland; Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Germany; Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM) at ETH Zurich, Switzerland (HAMMOZ-Consortium) in native nominal resolutions: aerosol: 250 km, atmos: 250 km, atmosChem: 250 km, land: 250 km, ocean: 250 km, ocnBgchem: 250 km, seaIce: 250 km.

Environmental dataBioclimatic data and environmental data for all 56 European peatland site (geo referenced by longitude [long], latitude [lat] and altitude [ALT]. MAT = Mean annual temperature (°C), TS = Seasonality in temperature, MAP = Mean annual precipitation (mm), PS = Seasonality in precipitation, tot_sox = Total sulphur deposition SOx (mg m-2 yr-1), tot_noy = Total oxidized nitrogen deposition (mg m-2 yr-1), tot_nhx = Total reduced nitrogen deposition (mg m-2), PT warm = Lang’s moisture index. The four bioclimatic variables (MAT, TS, MAP, PS) were extracted from the WorldClim database (Hijmans, R. J., Cameron, S. E., Parra, J. L., Jones, P. G. & Jarvis, A. Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 1965–1978 (2005)), and averaged over the 2000-2009 period. Atmospheric deposition data were produced using the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme)-based IDEM (Integrated Deposition Model) model (Pieterse, G., Bleeker, A., Vermeulen, A. T., Wu, Y. & Erisman, J. W. High resolution modelling of atmosphere‐canopy exchange of acidifying and eutrophying components and carbon dioxide for European forests. Tellus B 59, 412–424 (2007)) and consisted of grid cell averages of total reduced (NHx) and oxidised (NOy) nitrogen and sulphur (SOx) deposition. The moisture index (PTwarm) was calculated as the ratio between mean precipitation and mean temperature in the warmest quarter (Thornwaite, C. W. & Holzman, B. Measurement of evaporation from land and water surfaces. USDA Technical Bulletin 817, 1–143 (1942))Data 1_environmental data.txtplant community dataAbundance data (% cover) for all vascular plant and bryophyte species from five randomly chosen hummocks and lawns (0.25 m2 quadrats; ten in total) across 56 European Sphagnum-dominated peatlands were collected in two consecutive summers (2010 and 2011). Vascular plants and Sphagnum mosses were identified to the species level. Non-Sphagnum bryophytes were identified to the family level. Lichens were recorded as one group.Data 2_plant community data.txttraits vascular plantsPlant functional traits used to calculate functional indices for the vascular plant communities. Traits were extracted from LEDA (Kleyer, M. et al. The LEDA Traitbase: a database of life‐history traits of the Northwest European flora. J. Ecol. 96, 1266–1274 (2008)). Only trait data available for all species our data-set were extracted.ncomms_Data 3_traits vascular plants.txttraits SphagnumTrait values (means) for Sphagnum spp. C = tissue carbon content (mg g-1), N = tissue nitrogen content (mg g-1), P = tissue phosphorus content (mg g-1), Productivity ( St.w = stem width (mm), l.h.c. = length hyaline cells (µm), w.h.c. = width hyaline cells (µm), l.s.l. = length stem leaves (mm), w.s.l. = width stem leaves. These measured traits were complemented with traits extracted from the literature. These latter traits included plant length (Hill, M. O., Preston, C. D., Bosanquet, S. & Roy, D. B. BRYOATT: attributes of British and Irish mosses, liverworts and hornworts. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Huntingdon, UK (2007)), spore diameter and capsule diameter (Sundberg, S., Hansson, J. & Rydin, H. Colonization of Sphagnum on land uplift islands in the Baltic Sea: time, area, distance and life history. Journal of Biogeography 33, 1479–1491 (2006)), productivity (Gunnarsson, U. Global patterns of Sphagnum productivity. J. Bryol. 27, 269–279 (2005))ncomms_Data 4_traits Sphagnum.txt In peatland ecosystems, plant communities mediate a globally significant carbon store. The effects of global environmental change on plant assemblages are expected to be a factor in determining how ecosystem functions such as carbon uptake will respond. Using vegetation data from 56 Sphagnum-dominated peat bogs across Europe, we show that in these ecosystems plant species aggregate into two major clusters that are each defined by shared response to environmental conditions. Across environmental gradients, we find significant taxonomic turnover in both clusters. However, functional identity and functional redundancy of the community as a whole remain unchanged. This strongly suggests that in peat bogs, species turnover across environmental gradients is restricted to functionally similar species. Our results demonstrate that plant taxonomic and functional turnover are decoupled, which may allow these peat bogs to maintain ecosystem functioning when subject to future environmental change.