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Assessing ambitious nature conservation strategies in a below 2 degrees warmer and food-secure world – supplementary spatial data Authors: Marcel Kok, Johan Meijer, Willem-Jan van Zeist, Jelle Hilbers, Marco Immovilli, Jan Janse, Elke Stehfest, Michel Bakkenes, Andrzej Tabeau, Aafke Schipper, Rob Alkemade Point of contact: Marcel.Kok@pbl.nl Research paper summary: Global biodiversity is projected to further decline under a wide range of future socio-economic development pathways, even in sustainability-oriented scenarios. This raises the question how biodiversity can be put on a path to recovery, the core challenge for the CBD post-2020 global biodiversity framework. We designed two contrasting, ambitious global conservation strategies, ‘Half Earth’ (HE) and ‘Sharing the Planet’ (SP), and evaluated their ability to restore terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity and to provide nature’s contributions to people (NCP), while also limiting global warming below 2 degrees and ensuring food security. We applied the integrated assessment framework IMAGE with the GLOBIO biodiversity model, using the ‘Middle of the Road’ Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP2) with its projected human population growth as baseline. We found that both conservation strategies reduce the global loss of biodiversity and NCP, but are insufficient to restore biodiversity. The HE strategy performs generally better for terrestrial biodiversity (biodiversity intactness (MSA), Area of Habitat Index, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) in currently still natural regions. The SP strategy yields more improvements for biodiversity in human-used areas, aquatic biodiversity and for regulating NCP (pest control, pollination, erosion control, water quality). However, the ‘conservation only’ scenarios show a considerable increase in food security risks and further global temperature increase, compared to the baseline. To restore biodiversity, it is necessary to combine conservation strategies with a portfolio of ‘integrated sustainability measures’ including climate change mitigation actions to change the energy and food systems, where minimizing food wastes and reducing consumption of animal products are crucial. The combination of conservation strategies and additional sustainability measures will restore biodiversity an NCP while keeping global warming below two degrees and food security risks below the baseline projection. Contents: This repository contains the supplementary spatial data describing the specific prioritization of conservation areas under the Half Earth (HE) and Sharing the Planet (SP) scenarios, and the resulting scenario land use and MSA data sets for the year 2050, including also a baseline (BL) scenario. All spatial data is in geotiff format at a 10 arcsecond resolution in WGS84 coordinate system. Detailed description of the methodology is provided in the paper listed under "related identifiers". Keywords: Nature conservation, Half Earth, Sharing the Planet, Climate Change, Food Security, Solution-oriented scenarios, Biodiversity, Nature’s Contribution to People, NCP This repository contains the supplementary spatial data describing the specific prioritization of conservation areas under the Half Earth (HE) and Sharing the Planet (SP) scenarios, and the resulting scenario land use and MSA data sets for the year 2050, including also a baseline (BL) scenario. All spatial data is in geotiff format at a 10 arcsecond resolution in WGS84 coordinate system. Detailed description of the methodology is provided in the paper listed under "related identifiers".

To reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the European Union (EU) has targets for utilizing energy from renewable sources. By 2030, a minimum of 3.5% of energy in the EU���s transport sector should come from renewable biological sources, such as crop residues. This paper analyzed EU���s ���advanced bioethanol��� potential from wheat straw and maize stover and evaluated its environmental (land, water, and carbon) footprint. We differentiated between gross and net bioethanol output, the latter by subtracting the energy inputs in production. Results suggest that the annual amount of the sustainably harvestable wheat straw and maize stover is 81.9 Megatonnes (Mt) at field moisture weight (65.3 Mt as dry weight), yielding 470 PJ as gross (404 PJ as net) advanced bioethanol output. Calculated net advanced bioethanol can replace 2.95% of EU transport sector���s energy consumption. EU���s advanced bioethanol has a land footprint of 0.28 m2 MJ���1 for wheat straw and 0.18 m2 MJ���1 for maize stover. The average water footprint of advanced bioethanol is 173 L MJ���1 for wheat straw and 113 L MJ���1 for maize stover. The average carbon footprint per unit of advanced bioethanol is 19.4 and 19.6 g CO2eq MJ���1 for wheat straw and maize stover, respectively. Using advanced bioethanol can lead to emission savings, but EU���s advanced bioethanol production potential is insufficient to achieve EU���s target of a minimum share of 3.5% of advanced biofuels in the transport sector by 2030, and the associated water and land footprints are not smaller than footprints of conventional bioethanol.

Description: This meta-data on development and management of community managed small-scale irrigation schemes in Ethiopia is presented in a spreadsheet as a table after reviewing 83 published articles. The dataset contains research focus, data collection and analysis method, spatial scale, irrigation typology, irrigation water sources, source of energy for water conveyance from the source, main research results, scheme management systems, identified problems and provided solutions from each research article when available. The spatial scale was categorized as national, regional, district, basin, watershed or scheme, based on the spatial coverage of the research done. The irrigation typology was categorized as large-scale, medium-scale and small-scale based on the Ethiopian classification. Surface water sources such as river, lake, reservoir and flash flood and ground water sources of wells and springs or a combination of more than one source were mentioned as the water sources for irrigation schemes. The sources of energy for water abstraction were categorized as gravity, pump or a combination of both. Year of irrigation scheme commencement, available irrigation scheme infrastructure, number of beneficiaries (households), and stakeholders in scheme management were also extracted when available in the literature. Spatial coverage: Data was collected from community managed small-scale irrigation schemes located in different parts of Ethiopia. Location of some irrigation schemes (in UTM) is indicated in the dataset spreadsheet.

AbstractAutotrophs play an essential role in the cycling of carbon and nutrients, yet disease‐ecosystem relationships are often overlooked in these dynamics. Importantly, the availability of elemental nutrients like nitrogen and phosphorus impacts infectious disease in autotrophs, and disease can induce reciprocal effects on ecosystem nutrient dynamics. Relationships linking infectious disease with ecosystem nutrient dynamics are bidirectional, though the interdependence of these processes has received little attention. We introduce disease‐mediated nutrient dynamics (DND) as a framework to describe the multiple, concurrent pathways linking elemental cycles with infectious disease. We illustrate the impact of disease–ecosystem feedback loops on both disease and ecosystem nutrient dynamics using a simple mathematical model, combining approaches from classical ecological (logistic and Droop growth) and epidemiological (susceptible and infected compartments) theory. Our model incorporates the effects of nutrient availability on the growth rates of susceptible and infected autotroph hosts and tracks the return of nutrients to the environment following host death. While focused on autotroph hosts here, the DND framework is generalizable to higher trophic levels. Our results illustrate the surprisingly complex dynamics of host populations, infection patterns, and ecosystem nutrient cycling that can arise from even a relatively simple feedback between disease and nutrients. Feedback loops in disease‐mediated nutrient dynamics arise via effects of infection and nutrient supply on host stoichiometry and population size. Our model illustrates how host growth rate, defense, and tissue chemistry can impact the dynamics of disease–ecosystem relationships. We use the model to motivate a review of empirical examples from autotroph–pathogen systems in aquatic and terrestrial environments, demonstrating the key role of nutrient–disease and disease–nutrient relationships in real systems. By assessing existing evidence and uncovering data gaps and apparent mismatches between model predictions and the dynamics of empirical systems, we highlight priorities for future research intended to narrow the persistent disciplinary gap between disease and ecosystem ecology. Future empirical and theoretical work explicitly examining the dynamic linkages between disease and ecosystem ecology will inform fundamental understanding for each discipline and will better position the field of ecology to predict the dynamics of disease and elemental cycles in the context of global change.

Le changement d'utilisation des terres/de couverture est la principale cause de dégradation des écosystèmes terrestres. Cependant, ses impacts seront exacerbés en raison du changement climatique et de la croissance démographique, entraînant une expansion agricole en raison de la demande accrue de denrées alimentaires et de la baisse des rendements agricoles dans certaines zones tropicales. Les stratégies internationales visant à atténuer les impacts du changement climatique et du changement du couvert terrestre sont difficiles dans les régions en développement. Cette étude vise à évaluer des alternatives pour minimiser les impacts de ces menaces dans le cadre de trajectoires socio-économiques, dans l'une des régions les plus biologiquement riches du Guatemala et du Mexique. Cette étude est située dans le bassin versant d'Usumacinta, une région transfrontalière qui partage une histoire commune, avec des propriétés biophysiques et des contraintes économiques similaires qui ont conduit à d'importants changements dans l'utilisation/la couverture des terres. Pour comprendre les impacts sur la déforestation et les émissions de carbone des différentes pratiques de gestion des terres, nous avons développé trois scénarios (1) : le statu quo (BAU), (2) un scénario de réduction des émissions visant à réduire la déforestation et la dégradation (REDD+) et (3) zéro déforestation à partir de 2030 sur la base des engagements internationaux. Nos résultats suggèrent que d'ici 2050, la couverture terrestre naturelle pourrait réduire de 22,3 et 12,2% son étendue dans les scénarios BAU et REDD +, respectivement par rapport à 2012. Cependant, le scénario zéro déforestation montre que d'ici 2050, il serait possible d'éviter de perdre 22,4 % du bassin versant boisé (1,7 million d'hectares) et d'en récupérer 5,9 % (0,4 million d'hectares). En termes de séquestration du carbone, les projets REDD + peuvent réduire les pertes de carbone dans la végétation naturelle, mais une politique de zéro déforestation peut doubler la séquestration du carbone produite par les projets REDD + uniquement. Cette étude montre que pour réduire les pressions sur les écosystèmes, en particulier dans les régions fortement marginalisées avec des migrations importantes, il est nécessaire de mettre en œuvre des politiques transfrontalières de gestion des terres qui intègrent également des stratégies de réduction de la pauvreté. El cambio en el uso/cobertura de la tierra es la principal causa de la degradación de los ecosistemas terrestres. Sin embargo, sus impactos se exacerbarán debido al cambio climático y al crecimiento de la población, impulsando la expansión agrícola debido a una mayor demanda de alimentos y menores rendimientos agrícolas en algunas áreas tropicales. Las estrategias internacionales destinadas a mitigar los impactos del cambio climático y el cambio en la cobertura del uso de la tierra son un desafío en las regiones en desarrollo. Este estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar alternativas para minimizar los impactos de estas amenazas bajo trayectorias socioeconómicas, en una de las regiones biológicamente más ricas de Guatemala y México. Este estudio se encuentra en la cuenca de Usumacinta, una región transfronteriza que comparte una historia común, con propiedades biofísicas y limitaciones económicas similares que han llevado a grandes cambios en el uso/cobertura de la tierra. Para comprender los impactos en la deforestación y las emisiones de carbono de las diferentes prácticas de gestión de la tierra, desarrollamos tres escenarios (1): negocios como siempre (BAU), (2) un escenario de reducción de emisiones destinado a reducir la deforestación y la degradación (REDD+) y (3) cero deforestación a partir de 2030 en función de los compromisos internacionales. Nuestros resultados sugieren que para 2050, la cobertura natural de la tierra podría reducir el 22.3 y el 12.2% de su extensión bajo los escenarios BAU y REDD +, respectivamente, en comparación con 2012. Sin embargo, el escenario de deforestación cero muestra que para 2050, sería posible evitar la pérdida del 22,4% de la cuenca forestal (1,7 millones de ha) y recuperar el 5,9% (0,4 millones de hectáreas) de la misma. En términos de secuestro de carbono, los proyectos REDD + pueden reducir las pérdidas de carbono en la vegetación natural, pero una política de deforestación cero puede duplicar el secuestro de carbono producido solo por los proyectos REDD +. Este estudio muestra que para reducir las presiones sobre los ecosistemas, particularmente en regiones altamente marginadas con una migración significativa, es necesario implementar políticas transfronterizas de gestión de la tierra que también integren estrategias de alivio de la pobreza. Land-use/cover change is the major cause of terrestrial ecosystem degradation. However, its impacts will be exacerbated due to climate change and population growth, driving agricultural expansion because of higher demand of food and lower agricultural yields in some tropical areas. International strategies aimed to mitigate impacts of climate change and land use-cover change are challenging in developing regions. This study aims to evaluate alternatives to minimize the impacts of these threats under socioeconomic trajectories, in one of the biologically richest regions in Guatemala and Mexico. This study is located at the Usumacinta watershed, a transboundary region that shares a common history, with similar biophysical properties and economic constraints which have led to large land use/cover changes. To understand the impacts on deforestation and carbon emissions of different land-management practices, we developed three scenarios (1): business as usual (BAU), (2) a reducing emissions scenario aimed to reduce deforestation and degradation (REDD+), and (3) zero-deforestation from 2030 onwards based on the international commitments. Our results suggest that by 2050, natural land cover might reduce 22.3 and 12.2% of its extent under the BAU and REDD + scenarios, respectively in comparison with 2012. However, the zero-deforestation scenario shows that by 2050, it would be possible to avoid losing 22.4% of the forested watershed (1.7 million ha) and recover 5.9% (0.4 million hectares) of it. In terms of carbon sequestration, REDD + projects can reduce the carbon losses in natural vegetation, but a zero-deforestation policy can double the carbon sequestration produced by REDD + projects only. This study shows that to reduce the pressures on ecosystems, particularly in regions highly marginalized with significant migration, it is necessary to implement transboundary land-management policies that also integrate poverty alleviation strategies. استخدام الأراضي/تغيير الغطاء هو السبب الرئيسي لتدهور النظام الإيكولوجي الأرضي. ومع ذلك، ستتفاقم آثاره بسبب تغير المناخ والنمو السكاني، مما يؤدي إلى التوسع الزراعي بسبب ارتفاع الطلب على الغذاء وانخفاض الغلة الزراعية في بعض المناطق الاستوائية. تشكل الاستراتيجيات الدولية الرامية إلى التخفيف من آثار تغير المناخ وتغير استخدام الأراضي تحدياً في المناطق النامية. تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تقييم البدائل لتقليل آثار هذه التهديدات في إطار المسارات الاجتماعية والاقتصادية، في واحدة من أغنى المناطق بيولوجيًا في غواتيمالا والمكسيك. تقع هذه الدراسة في مستجمع مياه أوسوماسينتا، وهي منطقة عابرة للحدود تشترك في تاريخ مشترك، مع خصائص فيزيائية حيوية مماثلة وقيود اقتصادية أدت إلى تغييرات كبيرة في استخدام الأراضي/تغطيتها. لفهم تأثيرات ممارسات إدارة الأراضي المختلفة على إزالة الغابات وانبعاثات الكربون، وضعنا ثلاثة سيناريوهات (1): العمل كالمعتاد (BAU)، (2) سيناريو خفض الانبعاثات الذي يهدف إلى الحد من إزالة الغابات وتدهورها (REDD+)، و (3) إزالة الغابات الصفرية اعتبارًا من عام 2030 فصاعدًا بناءً على الالتزامات الدولية. تشير نتائجنا إلى أنه بحلول عام 2050، قد يقلل الغطاء الأرضي الطبيعي بنسبة 22.3 و 12.2 ٪ من مداه في إطار سيناريو العمل الاعتيادي وسيناريو خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية، على التوالي مقارنة بعام 2012. ومع ذلك، يُظهر سيناريو إزالة الغابات الصفرية أنه بحلول عام 2050، سيكون من الممكن تجنب فقدان 22.4 ٪ من مستجمعات المياه الحرجية (1.7 مليون هكتار) واستعادة 5.9 ٪ (0.4 مليون هكتار) منها. من حيث عزل الكربون، يمكن لمشاريع خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية أن تقلل من خسائر الكربون في الغطاء النباتي الطبيعي، ولكن سياسة إزالة الغابات الصفرية يمكن أن تضاعف عزل الكربون الناتج عن مشاريع خفض الانبعاثات الناجمة عن إزالة الغابات وتدهورها في البلدان النامية فقط. تُظهر هذه الدراسة أنه للحد من الضغوط على النظم الإيكولوجية، لا سيما في المناطق المهمشة للغاية مع الهجرة الكبيرة، من الضروري تنفيذ سياسات إدارة الأراضي العابرة للحدود التي تدمج أيضًا استراتيجيات التخفيف من حدة الفقر.

What present-day foragers do for their living and what they eat have long been privileged areas for exploring human behavior, global health, and human evolution. While many studies have focused on hunting and meat acquisition, less attention has been given to gathering and plant foods. Despite evidence of variation in both nutritional quality and energetic costs of gathering different plants, the overall effort spent on gathering in relation to other subsistence tasks is still under explored. In the current context of economic, climate, and social changes, many forager societies also rely on other subsistence strategies, including agriculture and wage labor. In this study, we aim to explore the place of gathering in the livelihood of a mixed economy society, the Baka forager-horticulturalists of southeastern Cameroon, by comparing the involvement and the costs of activities related to food acquisition. From a pool of 153 adult participants (97 women and 56 men), we collected 246 daily records using a GPS (Global Positioning System) tracker combined with heart rate monitor and time allocation recalls. We compared the duration, distance traveled, and the intensity of work, measured by calculating the metabolic equivalent of task (MET), of subsistence activities related to food acquisition. Results from this work show that gathering activities, performed by both women and men, are energetically costly, with higher MET values than hunting and fishing activities. Furthermore, the MET values vary depending on the targeted plant foods. We discuss these insights in the overall framework of subsistence patterns, merging them with the socio-cultural and environmental factors that might explain Baka livelihood and subsistence strategy.

The number and sizes of informal settlements are expected to increase drastically in the future, and dramatically so in Sub-Saharan Africa, where migration from rural to urban areas is increasing, and poverty and food insecurity threaten livelihoods. Data sources explaining livelihood factors in informal settlements are scarce, and often highly disputed. In this study, Kibera is investigated, one of the largest informal settlements in Africa. The main aim is to analyze differences in livelihood factors across the villages in Kibera, and to explain some of the existing discrepancies in food security levels among its population. In particular, livelihood factors such as tribe, welfare and trust can explain some of the variation in food security across 12 of the 13 villages located in Kibera. The analyses inform of significant differences across the villages when it comes to, among others, income, food insecurity, ownership of land in rural areas, tribal background and trust levels in strangers and community leads. To reach the millions of people living in informal settlements now, and increasingly so in the future, it is advised that research and implementation go hand in hand, with enhanced understanding of the complexities within rural–urban food systems to ensure solutions that are affordable and accessible to low-income groups. On this pathway to fight poverty and hunger in the future, today’s policies and programs must take such complexities into account to positively contribute to strengthening the resiliency and sustainability of rural–urban food systems by ensuring an increase in welfare levels with zero climate impact.