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This paper studies the welfare impacts of agricultural shocks on households with detailed heterogeneity, by taking consumption, land, and labor allocation choices into account. The underlying model is quantified with household survey data from 51 developing countries, then used to analyze the welfare consequences of the food price hikes induced by the Russian Federation's invasion of Ukraine and future climate change. Both repress income and exacerbate inequality. War-induced food inflation reduced real household incomes across developing countries by 2.90 percent on average, while changes in yields due to climate change will reduce real incomes by 11.99 percent. The welfare impacts of both shocks vary enormously across the income distribution, with already vulnerable households bearing the brunt of their costs. Poor households suffer losses that are considerably larger and much more dispersed than those predicted by models that do not feature household heterogeneity and rely exclusively on aggregate data.

Although the feasibility of introducing climate policies underpins global efforts to curb climate change, there has been limited analysis estimating the likelihood of introducing specific policies in different country contexts. Drawing on a dataset of climate policies introduced globally over the past 50 years, this paper explores patterns in climate policy adoption to quantify policy feasibility across countries. In constructing a ‘Climate Policy Space’ network based on the co-occurrence of policies across countries, the paper shows that climate policy adoption is path-dependent: countries are significantly more likely to introduce policies that are related to their prior climate policymaking experience. Exploiting this finding, the paper constructs empirically validated ‘Climate Policy Feasibility Frontiers’ which identify policies that are likely to be more feasible and could also increase the probability of the adoption of other policies. Complementing traditional cost-benefit analysis, feasibility frontiers can inform more realistic and strategic climate policy prioritization across countries.

In an era of increasingly frequent and severe interconnected shocks, particularly climate-related, it is paramount to identify the most vulnerable populations in a timely manner. Dynamic social registries play a vital role in the delivery of adaptive social protection programs in environments where household welfare can change dramatically and abruptly due to shocks. This technical paper explores the role of dynamic social registries in shock-prone contexts, including the Sahel. It outlines their operationalization through direct and indirect data collection, a combination of various intake modalities, and modular questionnaires. Additionally, the paper discusses relevant trade-offs involved in the design of dynamic social registries, such as balancing the need for high-quality data, the costs of expanding coverage, and the associated privacy risks. Key recommendations for operationalizing dynamic social registries, include: (i) establishing a permanent client interface between households and the social registry for on-demand data collection; (ii) adopting a modular structure for socioeconomic questionnaires; (iii) ensuring interoperability with other data sources and delivery systems; and (iv) promoting systematic peer-to-peer learning on social registries.

This report highlights strategic areas of opportunity for the EU and its member states to use existing funds more efficiently while implementing public policies and incentives that can drive substantial progress toward meeting the EU’s transport decarbonization goals. It focuses on three specific transport challenges that are critical for the EU: i) accelerating the transition to zero-emission road transport technologies; ii) sustainable urban and metropolitan mobility; and iii) increasing the role of rail in helping decarbonize transport. While looking into these areas, the report offers a range of policy options to reduce GHG emissions, enhance efficiency, and use market instruments to promote sustainable transport solutions. Although the report targets the EU and its 27 member states, the recommended policy actions also apply to EU accession countries due to their close economic and geographical ties to the EU and their aspiration to become future member states.

This report provides a foundational guide to regional energy integration, with a particular focus on developing and emerging economies. Many regions are about to integrate power grids and markets across national boundaries, which can offer economic benefits, enhanced power supply quality and security, and opportunities for scaling up climate change mitigation measures. The report begins with an overview of the different levels of power system integration, followed by an analysis of the primary drivers behind regional energy integration. It identifies five key building blocks essential for achieving deeper integration: interconnection infrastructure, planning and investment coordination, technical and operational coordination, commercial arrangements and market design, and institutional architecture. The report also highlights the key challenges hindering the development of these building blocks, particularly issues related to political cooperation and financing. It concludes by advocating for a collaborative, step-by-step approach, along with institutional capacity building and innovative financing mechanisms, to advance regional energy integration efforts.

Governments in low-income countries are increasingly integrating off-grid electricity provision into national electrification strategies, creating novel, decentralized markets for electricity. This paper studies a highly decentralized product that plays an important role in energy access: pay as you go (PAYGo) solar home systems. Unlike grid electrification, PAYGo solar features low upfront costs but relatively high usage costs. To what extent do high intensive margin prices limit the adoption of solar home systems In 2019, the Togolese government implemented a large subsidy that reduced usage costs by 17.8 to 41.7 percent, while upfront costs remained constant. This paper estimates that the subsidy dramatically increased adoption, with the largest effects occurring for the smallest systems (240 percent increase). The paper goes on to develop a theoretical framework that shows that the effects of such subsidies are uncertain due to the unique cost structure of decentralized solar electricity. The results highlight the importance of use prices in the electrification decisions of low-income households.

The Renewable Energy (RE) sector has grown significantly in response to the global climate crisis, yet women's participation remains disproportionately low, with many confined to lower-paid, non-technical roles. This persistent gender disparity could limit the sector's potential unless diversity is actively promoted. Traditional studies on women's employment in RE often overlook critical spatial factors, such as access to public transportation, safety, and neighborhood walkability, which are vital for understanding women's job access. To address these gaps, a Geospatial Women's Employment Analytical Framework (GeoWEAF) was developed, identifying 15 key spatial factors across three dimensions: Contextual, Accessibility, and Place-Characterization. These dimensions are crucial for evaluating whether an environment supports women's access to employment in the RE sector. The GeoWEAF was piloted in Saint Lucia to assess its practical application and effectiveness. It was designed as a decision-making tool for policymakers, offering data-driven insights that enable evidence-based decisions accounting for geographic disparities. By integrating spatial indicators into the evaluation of women's employment opportunities, the GeoWEAF provides a comprehensive understanding of the spatial dynamics shaping women's employment prospects, thereby facilitating targeted interventions to promote gender equity in the workforce.

The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are a core diagnostic that integrates climate change and development. They help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation and resilience, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action. The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are a core diagnostic that integrates climate change and development. They help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation and resilience, while delivering on broader development goals. CCDRs build on data and rigorous research and identify main pathways to reduce GHG emissions and climate vulnerabilities, including the costs and challenges as well as benefits and opportunities from doing so. The reports suggest concrete, priority actions to support the low-carbon, resilient transition. As public documents, CCDRs aim to inform governments, citizens, the private sector and development partners and enable engagements with the development and climate agenda. CCDRs feed into other core Bank Group diagnostics, country engagements and operations, and help attract funding and direct financing for high-impact climate action. Togo has achieved significant development gains over the last decade, but progress is still held back by slow structural transformation and a large urban-rural divide. Togo was able to achieve relatively rapid and stable growth over the last 10 years, averaging about 5.2 percent (2.8 percent in per capita terms), which was supported by economic reforms as well as rising public and private investment rates. However, limited headway was achieved in terms of structural transformation (i.e., the process of shifting jobs towards higher productivity activities and sectors), thus holding back opportunities for faster, more inclusive, and more sustainable growth. While the expansion of port activities in Lomé and the development of agro-business value chains, manufacturing and logistics services have helped the country’s economic development in recent years, limited gains in agriculture productivity, slow progress with human capital accumulation, and remaining barriers to private investment have prevented faster development. As a result, the national poverty rate has been on downward trends over the last decade, reaching 43.8 percent in 2021, but with significant and widening gaps between the capital Lomé and rural communities, particularly in the North where factors of fragility and insecurity have escalated in recent years. These factors have contributed to inward migration pressures in other areas of the country. A climate-conscious development strategy requires building on synergies and complementarities between sectoral policies in order to simultaneously boost productivity, job creation and the resilience of vulnerable populations. For instance, scaling up climate-smart and nature-based solutions in agriculture supports productivity, food security, and carbon sequestration, providing a strong foundation for sustainable rural livelihoods that limits rural-to-urban migration pressures. This complements efforts to ensure sustainable urban and coastal development while mitigating risks from coastal erosion and flooding. Ensuring universal access to clean and reliable energy is also critical to power agriculture, to attract new manufacturing and higher value-added services in urban centers, and to support digital solutions for a low-carbon economy. Similarly, a more resilient and greener transport sector can help lower emissions while strengthening local, regional and global value chains, and help develop secondary cities that reduce the urban pressures under the Grand Lome area. Efforts to enhance human capital, especially among the youth, are also critical to support more and better paying jobs by matching skills with the demand of emerging sectors and technologies, including those needed for Togo’s green transition. A higher level of human capital is in turn conducive to social progress, stronger social cohesion and resilience, and reduced fertility rate, all enablers of structural transformation. Finally, robust climate governance and improved access to climate-related financing can help mobilize critical investments across these sectors while fostering transparency and accountability for impactful delivery. If implemented correctly, priority reforms and investments could help turn threats from climate change into opportunities for faster development. Le Togo a accompli des progrès considérables sur le plan du développement au cours de la dernière décennie, mais il est toujours freiné par la lenteur de la transformation structurelle et un grand fossé entre les zones urbaines et rurales. Le Togo a pu réaliser une croissance relativement rapide et stable au cours des dix dernières années, qui s’est établie en moyenne à environ 5,2 % (2,8 % par habitant), soutenue par des réformes économiques et une hausse des taux d’investissement public et privé. Cependant, les progrès ont été limités en termes de transformation structurelle (c’est-à-dire le processus de réorientation des emplois vers des activités et des secteurs plus productifs), ce qui a empêché les possibilités d’une croissance plus rapide, plus inclusive et plus durable. Si l’expansion des activités portuaires à Lomé et le développement des chaînes de valeur agro-industrielles, des services manufacturiers et logistiques ont contribué au développement économique du pays ces dernières années, les progrès limités en matière de productivité agricole, la lenteur de l’accumulation de capital humain et les obstacles persistants à l’investissement privé ont empêché un développement plus rapide. En conséquence, le taux de pauvreté national a suivi une tendance baissière au cours de la dernière décennie, atteignant 43,8 % en 2021, mais avec des écarts importants et croissants entre la capitale Lomé et les communautés rurales, en particulier dans le nord où les facteurs de fragilité et d’insécurité se sont intensifiés ces dernières années. Ces facteurs ont contribué aux pressions migratoires vers d’autres régions du pays. Une stratégie de développement soucieuse du climat nécessite de miser sur les synergies et les complémentarités entre les politiques sectorielles afin de stimuler simultanément la productivité, la création d’emplois et la résilience des populations vulnérables. Par exemple, la mise à l’échelle de solutions agricoles intelligentes face au climat et fondées sur la nature favorise la productivité, la sécurité alimentaire et la séquestration du carbone, fournissant ainsi une base solide pour des moyens de subsistance ruraux durables qui limitent les pressions de l’exode rural. Ces efforts viennent compléter les efforts déployés pour assurer un développement urbain et côtier durable tout en atténuant les risques d’érosion et d’inondation côtières. Garantir l’accès universel à une énergie propre et fiable est également essentiel pour alimenter l’agriculture, attirer de nouveaux produits manufacturés et des services à plus forte valeur ajoutée dans les centres urbains, et soutenir les solutions numériques pour une économie à faible émission de carbone. De même, un secteur des transports plus résilient et plus vert peut contribuer à réduire les émissions tout en renforçant les chaînes de valeur locales, régionales et mondiales, et à développer des villes secondaires qui réduisent les pressions urbaines sous la région du Grand Lomé. Les efforts visant à renforcer le capital humain, en particulier chez les jeunes, sont également essentiels pour promouvoir des emplois plus nombreux et mieux rémunérés en faisant correspondre les compétences à la demande des secteurs et des technologies émergents, y compris ceux nécessaires à la transition verte du Togo. Un niveau plus élevé de capital humain est à son tour propice au progrès social, au renforcement de la cohésion sociale et de la résilience, et à la réduction du taux de fécondité, autant de facteurs favorisant la transformation structurelle. Enfin, une gouvernance climatique solide et un meilleur accès aux financements liés au climat peuvent aider à mobiliser des investissements essentiels dans ces secteurs tout en favorisant la transparence et la responsabilisation pour des résultats efficaces. S’ils sont mis en œuvre correctement, les réformes et les investissements prioritaires pourraient aider à transformer les menaces du changement climatique en opportunités pour un développement plus rapide.

Climate change is increasingly evident across Southern and Eastern Africa, bringing higher temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, more extreme weather, and sometimes catastrophic events. These impacts are expected to intensify in the coming decades, making it crucial to build climate resilience. Governments in the region recognize the threats and, in partnership with the World Bank, have taken steps to reduce climate risks and help their citizens adapt. Yet, without a clear understanding of how social vulnerability interacts with climate risks, these efforts may fail to protect those who are least able to cope with climate shocks. Indeed, some climate investments could leave vulnerable groups worse off. This report draws on a wealth of new analysis for eight countries, Botswana, Burundi, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, and South Africa, conducted by the Social Sustainability and Inclusion team to provide that crucial perspective for Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs). It highlights how social vulnerability puts some people in harm’s way or prevents them from finding safety; limits their access to resources for adaptation; and constrains their agency and their voice. Poverty is a key factor, but so is social exclusion. The goal of the report is to show how understanding social vulnerability can help policymakers to prioritize climate investments, design projects and programs to be more inclusive, and create tailored initiatives that make households and communities stronger and more resilient overall. These insights can help World Bank teams and other development partners as they engage with countries in the region to support green, resilient, and inclusive development.