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Supplementary Materials of the paper published in Open Research Europe : Connecting complex and simplified models of tipping elements: a nonlinear two-forcing emulator for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Publication : https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.19479.1

Supplementary Materials of the paper published in Open Research Europe : Connecting complex and simplified models of tipping elements: a nonlinear two-forcing emulator for the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Publication : https://doi.org/10.12688/openreseurope.19479.1

Abstract In the next 25 years an unprecedented number of new marine artificial structures, over 75,000 offshore wind turbines alone, are planned to meet global net zero targets. Structures are required to last for multiple decades in the hostile marine environment; where the largest cost across their whole lifecycle is on operations and maintenance dependent on accessibility in calm seas. However, the role of climate change on accessibility, and thus operational cost, has not been resolved. Here we provide the first study of future accessibility; evaluated from global climate model driven wave modelling, using the high emission scenario (RCP8.5). We found that climate change drives significant regional variation in accessibility, with the northern hemisphere benefiting from a 6% increase in operating windows whilst accessibility in parts of the southern hemisphere is reduced by 6-9%. These findings will help offshore developers and stakeholders incorporate adaptions to climate change as part of strategic planning practices.

Abstract In the next 25 years an unprecedented number of new marine artificial structures, over 75,000 offshore wind turbines alone, are planned to meet global net zero targets. Structures are required to last for multiple decades in the hostile marine environment; where the largest cost across their whole lifecycle is on operations and maintenance dependent on accessibility in calm seas. However, the role of climate change on accessibility, and thus operational cost, has not been resolved. Here we provide the first study of future accessibility; evaluated from global climate model driven wave modelling, using the high emission scenario (RCP8.5). We found that climate change drives significant regional variation in accessibility, with the northern hemisphere benefiting from a 6% increase in operating windows whilst accessibility in parts of the southern hemisphere is reduced by 6-9%. These findings will help offshore developers and stakeholders incorporate adaptions to climate change as part of strategic planning practices.

ABSTRACTThe analysis of the dispatchable potential of fuel‐cell hybrid electric vehicle (FCHEV) is particularly important to ensure the stable operation of the power system, but the uncertainty of vehicle owners' charging scheduling brings challenges to the analysis of the dispatchable potential of FCHEV aggregators. Therefore, this paper comprehensively considers the influence of vehicle charging scheduling uncertainty on the dispatchable potential of FCHEV aggregators, and proposes an analysis method for the dispatchable potential of FCHEV aggregators. In the context of urban transportation networks, the charging behavior of FCHEV is analyzed and modeled. From the subjective and objective perspectives, the evaluation index of the owner's charging scheduling was established. According to the relevant theories of behavioral psychology, the willingness of vehicle owners to participate in the dispatch of the power system is calculated, and the dispatchable potential of FCHEV aggregators is analyzed. Through the verification of examples, the analysis method proposed in this paper can effectively describe the uncertainty of vehicle owners' charging scheduling and ensure the validity of the evaluation results of dispatchable potential.

ABSTRACTThe analysis of the dispatchable potential of fuel‐cell hybrid electric vehicle (FCHEV) is particularly important to ensure the stable operation of the power system, but the uncertainty of vehicle owners' charging scheduling brings challenges to the analysis of the dispatchable potential of FCHEV aggregators. Therefore, this paper comprehensively considers the influence of vehicle charging scheduling uncertainty on the dispatchable potential of FCHEV aggregators, and proposes an analysis method for the dispatchable potential of FCHEV aggregators. In the context of urban transportation networks, the charging behavior of FCHEV is analyzed and modeled. From the subjective and objective perspectives, the evaluation index of the owner's charging scheduling was established. According to the relevant theories of behavioral psychology, the willingness of vehicle owners to participate in the dispatch of the power system is calculated, and the dispatchable potential of FCHEV aggregators is analyzed. Through the verification of examples, the analysis method proposed in this paper can effectively describe the uncertainty of vehicle owners' charging scheduling and ensure the validity of the evaluation results of dispatchable potential.

CONTEXT: Flanders, a densely populated region in Belgium, faces challenges in balancing agricultural production with renewable energy targets. Agrivoltaic systems combine solar energy and agricultural activity on the same field and can increase land productivity while simultaneously expanding the share of renewables. However, its potential and implications for the region is geographically complex. OBJECTIVE: This research aims to assess the suitability of Flanders' 658,000 ha agricultural land for agrivoltaic systems, using a geographical multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA), considering environmental, technical, agronomic, and cultural criteria to optimize land use for simultaneous food and energy production. METHODS: We describe a Geographic information system Multiple-criteria decision analysis (GIS-MCDA) using QGis-software. Expert stakeholder input was incorporated by applying the pairwise comparison method from the analytical hierarchical process (AHP). Criterion weights are applied to seven classifiers: irradiance, soil suitability, slope, orientation (aspect), crop type, flood risk and distance to roads/grid. Areas with particular societal, ecological, economic, and historical importance are excluded. The resulting scores are then placed in their agronomic and energy context. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: Our analysis indicates that 60.4 % of Flanders' farmland is well suited for agrivoltaic development, and that 9 % of farmland under AV would suffice to meet future energy targets in combination with rooftop PV. After our analysis, 11.5 % of total agricultural land was classified as less suitable, 28.74 % as somewhat suitable, 19.40 % as suitable and 12.22 % as very suitable. SIGNIFICANCE: Transitioning away from fossil fuels requires a multi-facetted approach. Agrivoltaic systems can contribute to this shift, opening up additional land without significantly compromising farm revenue. This study presents insights into the feasibility and geographic potential of agrivoltaic systems in densely populated regions with intensive agriculture like Flanders and can serve as a base for future discussion regarding dual land use planning decisions locally and abroad. We would like to thank all participants of the survey, as well as Marleen Gysen and Tom Schaeken (Boerenbond) for organizing the dissemination events making it possible to reach the appropriate expert audience. Special thanks also to Gabriele Torma (Aarhus University) for helping set up the survey. Also, thanks to Wim Clymans (VITO) for providing feedback on the draft manuscript and Andreas Harlander (Krinner GMBH) for the use of their photo. This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme project “HyPErFarm” [grant number 101000828]; a Flanders Innovation and Entrepreneurship (VLAIO) “TETRA” grant project “Agrivoltaics” [grant number HBC.2019.2049]; and a VLAIO LA-traject grant “Agri-PV” [grant number HBC.2022.0920]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.