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The required data was provided by Energex. The study received partial funding from the Ministry of Science and Innovation, Spain (Project ID: PID2020-115454GB-C21). Partial support of this work was through the LATENTIA project PID2022-140786NB-C31 of the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (MICINNU) . This work presents a Temporal Convolution Network (TCN) model for half-hourly, three-hourly and daily-time step to predict electricity demand ( ) with associated uncertainties for sites in Southeast Queensland Australia. In addition to multi-step predictions, the TCN model is applied for probabilistic predictions of where the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties are quantified using maximum likelihood and Monte Carlo Dropout methodologies. The benchmarks of TCN model include an attention-based, bi-directional, gated recurrent unit, seq2seq, encoder–decoder, recurrent neural networks and natural gradient boosting models. The testing results show that the proposed TCN model attains the lowest relative root mean square error of 5.336-7.547% compared with significantly larger errors for all benchmark models. In respect to the 95% confidence interval using the Diebold–Mariano test statistic and key performance metrics, the proposed TCN model is better than benchmark models, capturing a lower value of total uncertainty, as well as the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The root mean square error and total uncertainty registered for all of the forecast horizons shows that the benchmark models registered relatively larger errors arising from the epistemic uncertainty in predicted electricity demand. The results obtained for TCN, measured by the quality of prediction intervals representing an interval with upper and lower bound errors, registered a greater reliability factor as this model was likely to produce prediction interval that were higher than benchmark models at all prediction intervals. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of TCN approach in electricity demand modelling, and therefore advocates its usefulness in now-casting and forecasting systems.

A new energy-consistent discretization of the viscous dissipation function in incompressible flows is proposed. It is implied by choosing a discretization of the diffusive terms and a discretization of the local kinetic energy equation and by requiring that continuous identities like the product rule are mimicked discretely. The proposed viscous dissipation function has a quadratic, strictly dissipative form, for both simplified (constant viscosity) stress tensors and general stress tensors. The proposed expression is not only useful in evaluating energy budgets in turbulent flows, but also in natural convection flows, where it appears in the internal energy equation and is responsible for viscous heating. The viscous dissipation function is such that a consistent total energy balance is obtained: the 'implied' presence as sink in the kinetic energy equation is exactly balanced by explicitly adding it as source term in the internal energy equation. Numerical experiments of Rayleigh-Bénard convection (RBC) and Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities confirm that with the proposed dissipation function, the energy exchange between kinetic and internal energy is exactly preserved. The experiments show furthermore that viscous dissipation does not affect the critical Rayleigh number at which instabilities form, but it does significantly impact the development of instabilities once they occur. Consequently, the value of the Nusselt number on the cold plate becomes larger than on the hot plate, with the difference increasing with increasing Gebhart number. Finally, 3D simulations of turbulent RBC show that energy balances are exactly satisfied even for very coarse grids; therefore, we consider that the proposed discretization forms an excellent starting point for testing sub-grid scale models.

While the operating cost of electricity grids based on thermal generation was largely driven by the cost of fuel, as renewable penetration increases, ancillary services represent an increasingly large proportion of the running costs. Electric frequency is an important magnitude in highly renewable grids, as it becomes more volatile and therefore the cost related to maintaining it within safe bounds has significantly increased. So far, costs for frequency-containment ancillary services have been socialised in most countries, but it has become relevant to rethink this regulatory arrangement. In this paper, we discuss the issue of cost allocation for these services, highlighting the need to evolve towards a causation-based regulatory framework. We argue that parties responsible for creating the need for ancillary services should bear these costs. However, this would imply an important change in electricity market policy, therefore it is necessary to understand the impact on current and future investments on generation, as well as on electricity tariffs. Here we provide a mostly qualitative analysis of this issue, defining guidelines for practical implementation and further study. Published in journal Energy Policy