• Energy Research
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Abstract To guarantee the space heating in the heating season, conventional combined heat and power (CHP) plants operate in a heat-controlled operation mode, resulting in restricted peak-shaving ability (PSA). To improve the CHP plant’s PSA, a novel solar aided CHP (SA-CHP) system is proposed and simulated in this paper. In the new system, solar heat could be flexibly used to generate power or to supply heat according to the heating and power demands, thereby realizing the heat-power decoupling. A set of models for the SA-CHP system is developed and validated. The PSA, the standard coal consumption (SCC) and the techno-economic performances of a 330 MWe SA-CHP system are comprehensively analyzed in this paper. The results show that the SA-CHP system can significantly improve (up to double) the PSA compared with the CHP plant under the same rated heating power. The feasible operation region area of the SA-CHP system is 74.7% larger than that of the CHP plant. The annual SCC of the SA-CHP system are 17378.23 t less than that of the CHP plant. The net annual revenue of the SA-CHP system is $2.24 M. Besides, techno-economic performances of SA-CHP systems with two different heat storage systems are compared.

Abstract To understand the relationship between green building energy performance and regional commercial estates, this study analysed Australia’s Commercial Building Disclosure (CBD) program database. This database discloses the annual energy use intensity (EUI) and the corresponding energy rating (1–6 stars) of 2460 National Australian Built Environment Rating System (NABERS) certified office buildings. The study selected for analysis Australia’s six largest cities and then used panel data regression, where commercial estate factors (total stock of office buildings, vacancy rate, average gross face rent, and government incentives such as financial support) served as independent variables and the EUI was the dependent variable. The p-values of all the models are below 0.05, indicating that the results are statistically significant. Results showed the commercial real estate factors were significantly related to the EUI for buildings with a rating of 1 star and above. The correlation between EUI and commercial real estate factors became less strong with the rating level increasing. The effect of ‘green building’ branding makes the office buildings more attractive with regard to tenancy and their energy performance more reflective of the variation in the commercial real estate market. This study is a frontrunner in contextualising green building energy performance and ratings in the context of regional commercial estate, and the regression models employed in the study could be used to define regional baselines for energy ratings in future studies.

Abstract In energy demand forecasting, the objective function is often symmetric, implying that over-prediction errors and under-prediction errors have the same consequences. In practice, these two types of errors generally incur very different costs. To accommodate this, we propose a machine learning algorithm with a cost-oriented asymmetric loss function in the training procedure. Specifically, we develop a new support vector regression incorporating a linear-linear cost function and the insensitivity parameter for sufficient fitting. The electric load data from the state of New South Wales in Australia is used to show the superiority of our proposed framework. Compared with the basic support vector regression, our new asymmetric support vector regression framework for multi-step load forecasting results in a daily economic cost reduction ranging from 42.19 % to 57.39 % , depending on the actual cost ratio of the two types of errors.

Abstract Using a panel data analysis of a newly developed sample of monthly data by state for January 2005 to December 2019, we estimate a series of error correction models for US residential electricity demand postulated to move with electricity price, natural gas price, income, and weather. Our key findings are as follows. First, the short-run own-price elasticity estimate is not statistically different from zero (p-value > 0.8). Second, the long-run own- and cross-price elasticity estimates are −0.054 (p-value = 0.000) and 0.019 (p-value = 0.000) under the double-log specification, smaller in size than the long-run own- and cross-price elasticity estimates of −0.120 (p-value = 0.000) and 0.069 (p-value = 0.000) under the linear demand specification. Third, price elasticity estimates have been shrinking in size over time. Fourth, erroneously ignoring the panel data's cross-sectional dependence tends to more than double the long-run price elasticity estimates. Fifth, mismatching the timing of price information's availability and consumption decision leads to anomalous price elasticity estimates. Finally, our new empirics' key takeaway of low price-responsiveness supports continuation of energy efficiency standards and demand-side management programs.

Abstract Accurate installed capacity forecasting can provide effective decision-making support for planning development strategies and establishing national electricity policies. First, considering the data limitation in quantity and accuracy, this paper proposes a multi-factor installed capacity forecasting framework combining the fuzzy time series method and support vector regression. Compared with four benchmark models, the proposed model shows advantages in installed capacity prediction. Second, the predictability dynamics of national installed capacity are explored from the perspective of country clusters. It is revealed that highly predictable countries usually obtain high forecasting accuracy with all forecasting models and are less sensitive to forecasting models. Using the k-means clustering method, this paper divides 136 sample countries into four categories according to the predictability. Third, based on the mean impact value analysis, this paper differentiates and ranks the importance of input variables on installed capacity development. The two most important factors influencing installed capacity are installed capacity development in the previous period and population. Overall, these results are of practical value to the operating decisions of electric power enterprises and the electricity plans of governments.

Abstract The commercial development of biofuels and bioproducts depends on whether renewable biomass feedstock is available while not directly competing with the production of food. Farmers are one of the most important stakeholders in the biofuel supply chain and confront a range of uncertainties while entering the bioenergy market. Their decision-making process is extremely complex and rarely purely rational. Modeling farmer behavior requires considering a wide range of individual-level factors, socio-temporal dynamics, institutional settings, and their interactions. These characteristics make agent-based modeling a suitable framework for evaluating such systems. We developed a model to simulate farmer bioenergy crop adoption behavior across a 50-county study region in Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado. The analysis considers adoption decisions for two bioenergy feedstocks, crop residues and energy crops. We examine the influence of individual and farm characteristics, market structure, social networks, and media influence on farmer adoption decisions. Our results indicate that different factors can have varied impacts on the speed of adoption for the crop residues and energy crops. Identifying levers that have the most impact on grower adoption can inform the design of interventions both from policy and private sector standpoints with important implications for the future the bioenergy industry.

An operational cost minimisation model is established for a smart energy hub (S.E. Hub) consisting of a combined heat and power (CHP) unit, a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system, and thermal and electricity storage units. The optimal operation of CHP is combined with the load management of HVAC under a time-of-use (TOU) tariff. The heat and power split ratio of CHP is dynamically determined during the operation. The scheduling of HVAC load and the charging/discharging of energy storage systems are also determined through the optimisation model. The energy management system can therefore shift the load demand and manage energy supply simultaneously. System operation requirements and environment factors including the outdoor air-temperature variation, seasonal variation, and battery degradation are considered. Comprehensive case studies are carried out to examine the effectiveness of the proposed strategy, from which insights are obtained for different energy management strategies and possible upgrade of S.E. Hub. Simulation results reveal that dynamic control of the CHP heat and power split ratio is an effective way to save the total operational cost, and a clear cost saving is shown through the proposed optimal operation strategy.

Abstract The univariate sweeping tests for fuel injection pressure, injection timing and exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) rate were conducted on a three-cylinder gasoline extended range Atkinson cycle engine (ACE). The effects of above parameters on combustion, emission and performance of ACE were studied and some useful conclusions were obtained. In general, injection pressure has little effect on combustion and engine performance except at the injection advance of 280 deg, while its effect on emission is obvious. With injection pressure rising, NOx first increases and then decreases, while CO follows a reverse trend. Compared with injection pressure, injection timing has more significant effects. As injection timing is advanced, the max combustion pressure first increases and then decreases and the peaks appear around 300deg and 320deg. The lower EGR rate reduces BSFC and NOx with little influence on other emissions. At the EGR rate of 7%, NOx decreases significantly (up to 57.5%), CO, particle number (PN) and particle density are almost unchanged, and BSFC decreases by 4 g/(kW·h) at most. As EGR rate increases to 11%, only NOx further decreases, while other emissions become worse. Thus, a lower EGR rate (e.g., 7%) combining with reasonable injection advance (300deg) is suggested to improve ACE performance.