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Short-term load forecasting is an essential instrument in power system planning, operation and control. Many operating decisions are based on load forecasts, such as dispatch scheduling of generating capacity, reliability analysis, and maintenance planning for the generators. Overestimation of electricity demand will cause a conservative operation, which leads to the start-up of too many units or excessive energy purchase, thereby supplying an unnecessary level of reserve. On the contrary, underestimation may result in a risky operation, with insufficient preparation of spinning reserve, causing the system to operate in a vulnerable region to the disturbance. In this paper, semi-parametric additive models are proposed to estimate the relationships between demand and the driver variables. Specifically, the inputs for these models are calendar variables, lagged actual demand observations and historical and forecast temperature traces for one or more sites in the target power system. In addition to point forecasts, prediction intervals are also estimated using a modified bootstrap method suitable for the complex seasonality seen in electricity demand data. The proposed methodology has been used to forecast the half-hourly electricity demand for up to seven days ahead for power systems in the Australian National Electricity Market. The performance of the methodology is validated via out-of-sample experiments with real data from the power system, as well as through on-site implementation by the system operator.

AbstractBioenergy projects can lead to direct and indirect land use change (LUC), which can substantially affect greenhouse gas balances with both beneficial and adverse outcomes for bioenergy's contribution to climate change mitigation. The causes behind LUC are multiple, complex, interlinked, and change over time. This makes quantification uncertain and sensitive to many factors that can develop in different directions—including land use productivity, trade patterns, prices and elasticities, and use of by‐products associated with biofuels production. Quantifications reported so far vary substantially and do not support the ranking of bioenergy options with regard to LUC and associated emissions. There are however several options for mitigating these emissions, which can be implemented despite the uncertainties. Long‐rotation forest management is associated with carbon emissions and sequestration that are not in temporal balance with each other and this leads to mitigation trade‐offs between biomass extraction for energy use and the alternative to leave the biomass in the forest. Bioenergy's contribution to climate change mitigation needs to reflect a balance between near‐term targets and the long‐term objective to hold the increase in global temperature below 2°C (Copenhagen Accord). Although emissions from LUC can be significant in some circumstances, the reality of such emissions is not sufficient reason to exclude bioenergy from the list of worthwhile technologies for climate change mitigation. Policy measures to minimize the negative impacts of LUC should be based on a holistic perspective recognizing the multiple drivers and effects of LUC.This article is categorized under: Bioenergy > Economics and Policy Bioenergy > Climate and Environment

The coupling of water-splitting catalysts to silicon photovoltaics enables direct solar-to-fuel conversion. Critical to the performance of such devices is the use of interfaces to protect silicon from the oxygen-evolving reaction (OER) and at the same time to provide Ohmic contact between the buried silicon junction and the immobilised OER catalyst. Presented herein are guidelines for constructing the Si|catalyst interface, which is a crucial building block for efficient direct solar-to-fuel conversion devices. We show that fluorinated-tin-oxide is an especially attractive interface for buried-junction devices.

Abstract With promising benefits such as traffic emission reduction, traffic congestion alleviation, and parking problem solving, Electric Vehicle (EV)-sharing systems have attracted large attentions in recent years. Different from other business modes, customers in sharing economy systems are usually price sensitive. Therefore, it is possible to shift the usage of shared EVs through a well-designed Dynamic Pricing Scheme (DPS), with the objective of maximizing the system operator's total profit. In this study, we propose a novel DPS for a large-scale EV-sharing network to address the EV unbalancing issue and satisfy the vehicle-grid-integration (VGI) service based on accurate station-level demand prediction. The proposed DPS is formulated as a complex optimization problem, which includes two Price Adjustment Level (PAL) decision variables for every origin-destination pair of stations. The two PALs are employed to affect the EV-sharing demand and travel time between each station pair, respectively. Physical and operational constraints from both EV demand and VGI service aspects are also included in the proposed model. Two case study are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Abstract The combination of biomass gasification with fuel cells, especially high temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFCs) promises sustainable and highly efficient (decentralized and modular) energy conversion systems. This review encompasses the components of biomass integrated gasification–SOFC technology including biomass characteristics, the thermochemical conversion in gasifiers and the factors affecting the gasification process, the cleaning technologies for raw producer gas and its conditioning and finally the integration of gasifier with SOFCs. The influence of impurities present in biomass producer gas such as particulates, tar, H 2 S, HCl and alkali compounds based on recent experimental studies and their tolerance limits towards SOFCs are presented. Even though analysis based on the probable tolerance limits of impurities towards SOFCs and a comprehensive overview of the cleaning technologies for producer gas impurities indicate that producer gas cleaning at various temperatures using current technologies to meet SOFC requirements is possible, more experimental studies are still needed to acquire the detailed information on the tolerance limits of impurities for SOFCs. The recent theoretical modeling and experimental studies of biomass integrated gasification–SOFC systems are also presented.

Abstract This paper investigates the performance of a variable ratio gearbox (VRG) used in a small fixed-speed wind turbine with active blades. The major components of the VRG-enabled drivetrain are an automatic-manual gearbox and squirrel cage induction generator that connects directly to the grid. The simplicity of this system may be appealing for applications when cost and reliability are of concern. It is an alternative to variable speed systems, which necessitate a modified generator and power conditioning equipment. During partial load operation the VRG provides a discrete set of rotor speeds. This allows the controller to track the wind speed and to achieve a greater efficiency. This study suggests three VRG ratios are sufficient to improve performance when used with active blades. A case study is presented where the performance is simulated using three different wind data sets. The study suggests that the VRG can improve production between 7 and 8.5% in low wind areas. The design procedure also illustrates a technique for finding the lowest and highest gear ratios needed for VRG design. These ratios allow the system to achieve the lowest cut-in and rated speeds. The approach also has useful implications for the design of a continuously variable transmission.

With the integration of a high penetration of wind power into distribution system, the ability to cope with the voltage fluctuation issue arising from the intensified uncertainty should be improved. Energy storage system (ESS) with effective control strategies keeps a key role in smoothing the voltage fluctuation caused by the uncertainty of wind turbine generators (WTGs). Considering the constraints of state of charge (SOC), charge-discharge efficiency and continuous operation of ESS, this paper proposes a novel approach to determine the minimum capacity of ESS to satisfy the voltage fluctuation limit based on unbalanced three-phase interval power flow. An unbalanced forward-backward sweep interval power flow considering the constraints of ESS and the voltage fluctuation limit is proposed. The interval model of uncertain WTG output is established on basis of wind speed fluctuation curve. The interval model of the practical ESS output is obtained on basis of the present SOC, nominal capacity and comprehensive efficiency. The output voltages of power flow can directly demonstrate the voltage fluctuation rate due to their interval forms. Therefore, a feedback mechanism is established between the output voltage fluctuation rate and the input ESS practical power, which is used to determine the minimum capacity of ESS to satisfy the fluctuation limit. A modified IEEE 33-bus system with high penetration of WTGs is implemented to test the proposed method. Results demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

The Sulphurdale Geothermal Field is located in Beaver County Utah, within the boundaries of the Cove Fort--Sulphurdale Known Geothermal Resource Area (KGRA). During the past year, three wells drilled in Section 7, T-26-S, R-6-W, have produced dry steam from a fractured volcanic formation located at a depth of about 1100 feet. Two of these three wells are currently prepared to supply steam to a power plant, and one well has been plugged and abandoned. ThermaSource, Inc. was retained by Mother Earth Industries, the operator of the field, to conduct well tests and render an opinion as to the nature of the geothermal reserves and assess the commercial potential of these reserves. Because of the limited area that has been explored to date, there can be no assurance that the reserves estimate will prove accurate. Project economics are based on parameters believed to be accurate, but there is no assurance that such cash flow projections will be realized.

Dynamic loading of transformers is the term used when the loading capacity is calculated using an appropriate thermal model while taking into account the load magnitude, load shape, thermal limits and external cooling conditions. For transformer dynamic loading, the aim is to estimate the transformer's maximum dynamic loading capacity without violating the hottest-spot temperature (HST) and top-oil temperature (TOT) thermal limits. These two temperatures are proxy measures of insulation temperature, which can be used to estimate the loss of service life. The accuracy of the TOT and HST predictions is dependent on many things, central to which is the accuracy of the thermal model. This paper introduces metrics that can be used to differentiate between reliable and unreliable transformer thermal models. The two models discussed in this paper for HST and TOT are the non-linear IEEE model and the model developed by the authors using linear regression methods.