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Public policy requires public support, which in turn implies a need to enable the public not just to understand policy but also to be engaged in its development. Where complex science and technology issues are involved in policy making, this takes time, so it is important to identify emerging issues of this type and prepare engagement plans. In our horizon scanning exercise, we used a modified Delphi technique. A wide group of people with interests in the science and policy interface (drawn from policy makers, policy adviser, practitioners, the private sector and academics) elicited a long list of emergent policy issues in which science and technology would feature strongly and which would also necessitate public engagement as policies are developed. This was then refined to a short list of top priorities for policy makers. Thirty issues were identified within broad areas of business and technology; energy and environment; government, politics and education; health, healthcare, population and aging; information, communication, infrastructure and transport; and public safety and national security.

AbstractThe Fram Strait is the only deep gateway between the Arctic Ocean and the Nordic Seas and thus is a key area to study past changes in ocean circulation and the marine carbon cycle. Here, we study deep ocean temperature, δ18O, carbonate chemistry (i.e., carbonate ion concentration [CO32−]), and nutrient content in the Fram Strait during the late glacial (35,000–19,000 years BP) and the Holocene based on benthic foraminiferal geochemistry and carbon cycle modeling. Our results indicate a thickening of Atlantic water penetrating into the northern Nordic Seas, forming a subsurface Atlantic intermediate water layer reaching to at least ∼2,600 m water depth during most of the late glacial period. The recirculating Atlantic layer was characterized by relatively high [CO32−] and low δ13C during the late glacial, and provides evidence for a Nordic Seas source to the glacial North Atlantic intermediate water flowing at 2,000–3,000 m water depth, most likely via the Denmark Strait. In addition, we discuss evidence for enhanced terrestrial carbon input to the Nordic Seas at ∼23.5 ka. Comparing our δ13C and qualitative [CO32−] records with results of carbon cycle box modeling suggests that the total terrestrial CO2 release during this carbon input event was low, slow, or directly to the atmosphere.

Abstract Growing urban populations, changes in rainfall patterns and ageing infrastructure represent significant challenges for urban water management (UWM). There is a critical need for research into how cities should adapt to become resilient to these impacts under uncertain futures. UWM challenges in the Ebbsfleet Garden City (UK) were investigated via a participatory process and potential sustainable solutions were explored using a System Dynamics Model (SDM). Collaborative development of the SDM by the Ebbsfleet Learning and Action Alliance developed stakeholders’ understanding of future UWM options and enabled a structured exploration of interdependencies within the current UWM system. Discussion by stakeholders resulted in a focus on potable water use and the development of the SDM to investigate how residential potable water consumption in the Ebbsfleet Garden City might be reduced through a range of interventions, e.g., socio-environmental and economic policy incentives. The SDM approach supports decision-making at a strategic, system-wide level, and facilitates exploration of the long-term consequences of alternative strategies, particularly those that are difficult to include in quantitative models. While an SDM can be developed by experts alone, building it collaboratively allows the process to benefit from local knowledge, resulting in a collective learning process and increased potential for adoption.

The allowance allocation under the European Emission trading schemes differs fundamentally from earlier cap and trade programs, like SO2 and NOx in the USA. Because of the iterative nature of negotiations of the overall budget, the allocation also has to follow an iterative process. If power generators anticipate that their current behaviour will affect future allowance allocation, then this can distort todayâ  s decisions. Furthermore, the National Allocation Plans (NAPs) contain multiple provisions dealing with existing installations, what happens to allocation when they close, and allocations to new entrants. We provide a framework to assess the economic incentives and distortions that provisions in NAPs can have on market prices, operation and investment decisions. To this end, we use both analytic models to illustrate the incentives effects and results from numerical simulation runs that estimate the magnitude of impacts from different allocation rules.

AbstractAmongst academics and practitioners working in the fields of urban planning and design, there has been an on-going discussion regarding the relationships between urban morphology and environmental sustainability. A main focus of analysis has been to investigate whether the form of cities and neighbourhoods can be related to their energy efficiency, especially regarding the energy intensity of buildings and transportation. However, to analyse the overall energy performance of urban systems, both the consumption and the generation of resources need to be assessed. In terms of urban environmental sustainability, the potential to generate renewable energy within the city boundaries is a research topic of growing interest, being solar energy one of the main resources available.This study uses neighbourhood-scale statistical models to explore the relationships between aggregated urban form descriptors and the potential to harvest solar energy within the city. Different possible scenarios of urban morphology in Greater London are analysed and variables of urban form are tested with the aim of increasing the solar energy potential of neighbourhoods. Results show that by optimising combinations of up to eight variables of urban form the solar irradiation of roofs could be increased by ca. 9%, while that of façades could increase by up to 45%. Furthermore, based on these results, a series of trade-offs needed for the optimisation of conflicting variables is unveiled. Finally, some recommendations for design strategies are offered with the aim of helping urban planners and designers improve the solar energy potential of new or existing urban areas.

La réalisation des objectifs de développement durable (ODD) nécessite d'équilibrer les demandes en terres entre l'agriculture (ODD 2) et la biodiversité (ODD 15).La production d'huiles végétales, et en particulier d'huile de palme, illustre ces demandes concurrentes et ces compromis.L' huile de palme représente ~40 % de la demande annuelle mondiale actuelle d'huile végétale pour l'alimentation humaine, animale et pour le carburant (210 millions de tonnes (Mt)), mais le palmier à huile planté couvre moins de 5 à 5,5 % de la superficie totale des cultures oléagineuses mondiales (environ 425 Mha), en raison des rendements relativement élevés du palmier à huile.L' expansion récente du palmier à huile dans les régions boisées de Bornéo, de Sumatra et de la péninsule malaise, où plus de 90 % de l'huile de palme mondiale est produite, a suscité de vives inquiétudes quant au rôle du palmier à huile dans la déforestation.La contribution directe de l'expansion du palmier à huile à la déforestation tropicale régionale varie considérablement, allant de 3 % en Afrique de l'Ouest à 47 % en Malaisie.Le palmier à huile est également impliqué dans le drainage et la combustion des tourbières en Asie du Sud-Est.Les impacts environnementaux négatifs documentés d'une telle expansion comprennent le déclin de la biodiversité, les émissions de gaz à effet de serre et la pollution atmosphérique.Toutefois, le palmier à huile produit généralement plus l'huile par superficie par rapport aux autres cultures oléagineuses, est souvent économiquement viable sur des sites inadaptés à la plupart des autres cultures, et génère une richesse considérable pour au moins certains acteurs. La demande mondiale d'huiles végétales devrait augmenter de 46 % d'ici 2050. Répondre à cette demande par une expansion supplémentaire du palmier à huile par rapport à d'autres cultures d'huile végétale entraînera des effets différentiels substantiels sur la biodiversité, la sécurité alimentaire, le changement climatique, la dégradation des terres et les moyens de subsistance. Notre examen souligne que, bien que des lacunes importantes subsistent dans notre compréhension de la relation entre les impacts environnementaux, socioculturels et économiques du palmier à huile, et la portée, la rigueur et l'efficacité des initiatives visant à y remédier, il y a eu peu de recherches sur les impacts et les compromis des autres cultures d'huile végétale. Une plus grande attention de la recherche doit être accordée à l'étude des impacts de la production d'huile de palme par rapport aux alternatives pour les compromis à évaluer à l'échelle mondiale. El cumplimiento de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) requiere equilibrar las demandas de tierras entre la agricultura (ODS 2) y la biodiversidad (ODS 15). La producción de aceites vegetales, y en particular el aceite de palma, ilustra estas demandas y compensaciones competitivas. El aceite de palma representa aproximadamente el 40% de la demanda anual mundial actual de aceite vegetal como alimento, pienso y combustible (210 millones de toneladas (Mt)), pero la palma aceitera plantada cubre menos del 5-5,5% del área total de cultivos oleaginosos mundiales (aprox. 425 Mha). debido a los rendimientos relativamente altos de la palma aceitera. La reciente expansión de la palma aceitera en las regiones boscosas de Borneo, Sumatra y la Península Malaya, donde se produce más del 90% del aceite de palma mundial, ha generado una preocupación sustancial sobre el papel de la palma aceitera en la deforestación. La contribución directa de la expansión de la palma aceitera a la deforestación tropical regional varía ampliamente, desde el 3% en África occidental hasta el 47% en Malasia. La palma aceitera también está implicada en el drenaje y la quema de turberas en el sudeste asiático. Los impactos ambientales negativos documentados de dicha expansión incluyen la disminución de la biodiversidad, las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero y la contaminación del aire. Sin embargo, la palma aceitera generalmente produce más. aceite por área que otros cultivos oleaginosos, a menudo es económicamente viable en sitios inadecuados para la mayoría de los otros cultivos y genera una riqueza considerable para al menos algunos actores. Se proyecta que la demanda mundial de aceites vegetales aumentará en un 46% para 2050. Satisfacer esta demanda a través de una expansión adicional de la palma aceitera frente a otros cultivos de aceite vegetal conducirá a efectos diferenciales sustanciales en la biodiversidad, la seguridad alimentaria, el cambio climático, la degradación de la tierra y los medios de vida. Nuestra revisión destaca que, aunque quedan brechas sustanciales en nuestra comprensión de la relación entre los impactos ambientales, socioculturales y económicos de la palma aceitera, y el alcance, la rigurosidad y la efectividad de las iniciativas para abordarlos, ha habido poca investigación sobre los impactos y las compensaciones de otros cultivos de aceite vegetal. Se debe prestar mayor atención a la investigación para investigar los impactos de la producción de aceite de palma en comparación con las alternativas para las compensaciones que se evaluarán a escala mundial. Delivering the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) requires balancing demands on land between agriculture (SDG 2) and biodiversity (SDG 15).The production of vegetable oils, and in particular palm oil, illustrates these competing demands and trade-offs.Palm oil accounts for ~40% of the current global annual demand for vegetable oil as food, animal feed, and fuel (210 million tons (Mt)), but planted oil palm covers less than 5-5.5% of the total global oil crop area (ca.425 Mha), due to oil palm's relatively high yields.Recent oil palm expansion in forested regions of Borneo, Sumatra, and the Malay Peninsula, where >90% of global palm oil is produced, has led to substantial concern around oil palm's role in deforestation.Oil palm expansion's direct contribution to regional tropical deforestation varies widely, ranging from 3% in West Africa to 47% in Malaysia.Oil palm is also implicated in peatland draining and burning in Southeast Asia.Documented negative environmental impacts from such expansion include biodiversity declines, greenhouse gas emissions, and air pollution.However, oil palm generally produces more oil per area than other oil crops, is often economically viable in sites unsuitable for most other crops, and generates considerable wealth for at least some actors.Global demand for vegetable oils is projected to increase by 46% by 2050.Meeting this demand through additional expansion of oil palm versus other vegetable oil crops will lead to substantial differential effects on biodiversity, food security, climate change, land degradation, and livelihoods.Our review highlights that, although substantial gaps remain in our understanding of the relationship between the environmental, socio-cultural and economic impacts of oil palm, and the scope, stringency and effectiveness of initiatives to address these, there has been little research into the impacts and trade-offs of other vegetable oil crops.Greater research attention needs to be given to investigating the impacts of palm oil production compared to alternatives for the trade-offs to be assessed at a global scale. يتطلب تحقيق أهداف التنمية المستدامة (SDGs) موازنة الطلب على الأراضي بين الزراعة (SDG 2) والتنوع البيولوجي (SDG 15). يوضح إنتاج الزيوت النباتية، ولا سيما زيت النخيل، هذه المطالب والمقايضات المتنافسة. يمثل زيت النخيل حوالي40 ٪ من الطلب السنوي العالمي الحالي على الزيوت النباتية كغذاء وعلف حيواني ووقود (210 مليون طن متري)، لكن نخيل الزيت المزروع يغطي أقل من 5-5.5 ٪ من إجمالي مساحة محصول النفط العالمي (حوالي 425 مليون هكتار)، بسبب غلة نخيل الزيت المرتفعة نسبيًا. أدى التوسع الأخير في نخيل الزيت في مناطق الغابات في بورنيو وسومطرة وشبه جزيرة الملايو، حيث يتم إنتاج أكثر من 90 ٪ من زيت النخيل العالمي، إلى قلق كبير حول دور نخيل الزيت في إزالة الغابات. تختلف المساهمة المباشرة لتوسع نخيل الزيت في إزالة الغابات الاستوائية الإقليمية اختلافًا كبيرًا، حيث تتراوح من 3 ٪ في غرب إفريقيا إلى 47 ٪ في ماليزيا. كما يتورط نخيل الزيت في تصريف الأراضي الخثية وحرقها في جنوب شرق آسيا. وتشمل الآثار البيئية السلبية الموثقة من هذا التوسع انخفاض التنوع البيولوجي وانبعاثات غازات الدفيئة وتلوث الهواء. ومع ذلك، ينتج نخيل الزيت عمومًا المزيد من المتوقع أن يزداد الطلب العالمي على الزيوت النباتية بنسبة 46 ٪ بحلول عام 2050. وستؤدي تلبية هذا الطلب من خلال التوسع الإضافي في محاصيل نخيل الزيت مقابل محاصيل الزيوت النباتية الأخرى إلى آثار تفاضلية كبيرة على التنوع البيولوجي والأمن الغذائي وتغير المناخ وتدهور الأراضي وسبل العيش. وتسلط مراجعتنا الضوء على أنه على الرغم من استمرار وجود فجوات كبيرة في فهمنا للعلاقة بين الآثار البيئية والاجتماعية والثقافية والاقتصادية لنخيل الزيت، ونطاق وصرامة وفعالية المبادرات الرامية إلى معالجتها، إلا أنه لم يتم إجراء سوى القليل من الأبحاث حول تأثيرات ومقايضات محاصيل الزيوت النباتية الأخرى. ويلزم إيلاء اهتمام بحثي أكبر للتحقيق في آثار إنتاج زيت النخيل مقارنة ببدائل المقايضات التي سيتم تقييمها على نطاق عالمي.