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Abstract Numerous countries have set up strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in response to oil disruptions since 1970. While numerous studies model such programs, we found few that evaluate SPRs' historical performance. Thus, we evaluate the U.S. SPR's performance by comparing actual real costs with estimated real benefits. From 1976 to 2014, the real U.S. SPR cost was about $219 billion real (2014$) dollars, whereas the real benefit was only $122 billion. Sensitivity testing suggests such negative net benefits are qualitatively robust. However, if world oil demand is extremely inelastic to oil price or GDP is elastic enough to oil price shocks, the estimated U.S. SPR net benefit is positive. Sensitivity testing around total real costs and benefits range from $380 billion to $80 billion. Limited testing of IEA coordinated drawdowns suggests that total U.S. benefits jump from $122 billion to more than $400 billion putting the SPR strongly in the black. Limited testing of private sector inventory changes was more disappointing and tentatively suggests private activities may at times have offset some of the government drawdowns. With 20-20 hindsight, initial experimentation found that better management could have significantly enhanced the value of the U.S. SPR, especially for the 1990-91 disruption.

This paper analyses the impact of postponing global mitigation action on abatement costs and energy systems changes in China and India. It compares energy-system changes and mitigation costs from a global and two national energy-system models under two global emission pathways with medium likelihood of meeting the 2 °C target: a least-cost pathway and a pathway that postpones ambitious mitigation action, starting from the Copenhagen Accord pledges. Both pathways have similar 2010–2050 cumulative greenhouse gas emissions. The analysis shows that postponing mitigation action increases the lock-in in less energy efficient technologies and results in much higher cumulative mitigation costs. The models agree that carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear energy are important mitigation technologies, while the shares of biofuels and other renewables vary largely over the models. Differences between India and China with respect to the timing of emission reductions and the choice of mitigation measures relate to differences in projections of rapid economic change, capital stock turnover and technological development. Furthermore, depending on the way it is implemented, climate policy could increase indoor air pollution, but it is likely to provide synergies for energy security. These relations should be taken into account when designing national climate policies.

This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced (second and third generation) biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) efforts in reducing these costs and in supporting the deployment of biofuels in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. Fifteen leading experts from different EU member states provide insights on the future potential of advanced biofuel technologies both in terms of costs and diffusion. This information results in a number of policy recommendations with respect to public RD&D strategies and is an important contribution to the integrated assessment modelling community.

Abstract In modern developed economies, one of the primary objectives is to manage the transition from polluting to cleaner technologies as efficiently as possible. By now, in the current empirical literature, one can identify technological spillovers from environmental innovations as a major driver of this process. Specific energy policy aspects connected with industry behaviour have yet to be explored. The aim of this paper is to investigate energy efficiency via environmental innovation and the resulting degree of resilience and adaptation of both developed and developing countries. The work applies the non-parametric DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis) framework and Tobit analysis. For this scope, it is built a panel dataset made of some 5000 observations based on energy policy and sustainable development variables for 136 OECD and non-OECD countries. The results show that knowledge spillovers from environmental innovations reduce inefficiency and therefore strengthen the resilience of economies that decide and manage to invest adequately in the transition to more sustainable technologies. Besides, OECD countries improve their energy efficiency scores over time, whilst non-OECD countries do not. This implies that sustainable technologies transition is made more efficient by environmental innovation but the process is fostered by disposing of a resilient economic system – hence, vulnerability can affect the transition. These hypotheses lead to important economic, social and environmental implications for energy policy modelling.

Abstract Energy consumption of the iron and steel industry is examined in seven countries (Brazil, China, France, Germany, Japan, Poland and the United States) for the period 1980–1991. Using a decomposition analysis based on physical indicators for process type and product mix, we decompose intra-sectoral structural changes and efficiency improvements. Specific energy consumption decreased in all countries except Poland. Efficiency improvement played a key role in Brazil, China, Germany and the US, while structural changes were the main driver for energy savings in France and Japan. We also compare the use of various economic indicators to physical indicators and find that they do not track physical developments well in Poland or the developing countries we studied. In the industrialized countries, value added based energy intensity indicators generally reflect the specific energy consumption better than other economic indicators, although large differences occur in individual years. We found a smaller correlation between other economic indicators (gross output and value of shipments) and specific energy consumption. We conclude that use of physical energy intensity indicators improves comparability between countries, provides greater information for policy-makers regarding intra-sectoral structural changes, and provides detailed explanations for observed changes in energy intensity.

Abstract The development of the regional economy in China is unbalanced. Interregional "carbon leakage" and "carbon transfer" have a significant impact on the realization of carbon emission mitigation targets and the allocation of responsibility. Using China's interregional input-output tables and the corresponding carbon emission data for 2007 and 2010, this paper proposes an interregional Ghosh input-output model and estimates the amount of interprovincial carbon emission transfer from the supply-side perspective. We find that the main direction of supply-side carbon emission transfer is from resource-intensive provinces in the central and western regions to developed provinces in the eastern coastal regions. Further analysis shows that the transfer is mainly concentrated in the production and distribution of electricity and heat, nonmetallic mineral products, and basic metals, whose carbon emissions account for approximately 70% of all sectors’ carbon emissions. The differences between the supply side and the demand side of China's provinces are mainly reflected in the transfer out of carbon emissions.

Abstract In this paper we analyze the economic impact of a decision to produce ethanol in Mexico, comparing the effect of a subsidy to initiate ethanol production with that of alternative public policies. Public support of biofuels has been a public policy goal since 2008, and the promotion of ethanol remains an active part of the government agenda. The evidence used to encourage or alter the policy is (by necessity) chiefly based on international experience. In this study we use a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) to estimate the impact of ethanol production on the Mexican economy. Using cost data from Brazil we introduce ethanol into a Mexican social accounting matrix, and insert a latent sector into the model to analyze ethanol promotion. Our results show that subsidies to ethanol would increase agriculture production but at the expense of aggregate welfare. By contrast, alternative "clean energy" policies appear to advance economic growth to a greater extent.

Abstract States, regions, and municipalities have a growing importance in innovating policies to promote renewable sources of energy. This article examines the contribution of three state governments in developing and deploying wind and solar energy technologies in Brazil. The Brazilian electricity sector represents an interesting case of a middle-income country that is distinguished by strong federal involvement in energy governance and a reliance on hydroelectric power, followed by natural gas and coal. Using interviews conducted with policymakers and energy professionals, we find that regional energy transitions emerge as part of a process where state-level actors frame renewable energy choices primarily in terms of economic development opportunities and improving energy security. The engagement of regional institutions and organizations with energy priorities further influences the development of renewable technologies. The main policy implication is that state governments can have a strong role in the learning and niche formation of renewable alternatives that have been given less priority at the national level. This paper concludes that future policies should investigate how to scale up state renewable energy programs and initiatives.