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The development of advanced computational models for improving the accuracy of streamflow forecasting could save time and cost for sustainable water resource management. In this study, a locally weighted learning (LWL) algorithm is combined with the Additive Regression (AR), Bagging (BG), Dagging (DG), Random Subspace (RS), and Rotation Forest (RF) ensemble techniques for the streamflow forecasting in the Jhelum Catchment, Pakistan. To build the models, we grouped the initial parameters into four different scenarios (M1–M4) of input data with a five-fold cross-validation (I–V) approach. To evaluate the accuracy of the developed ensemble models, previous lagged values of streamflow were used as inputs whereas the cross-validation technique and periodicity input were used to examine prediction accuracy on the basis of root correlation coefficient (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), relative absolute error (RAE), and root relative squared error (RRSE). The results showed that the incorporation of periodicity (i.e., MN) as an additional input variable considerably improved both the training performance and predictive performance of the models. A comparison between the results obtained from the input combinations III and IV revealed a significant performance improvement. The cross-validation revealed that the dataset M3 provided more accurate results compared to the other datasets. While all the ensemble models successfully outperformed the standalone LWL model, the ensemble LWL-AR model was identified as the best model. Our study demonstrated that the ensemble modeling approach is a robust and promising alternative to the single forecasting of streamflow that should be further investigated with different datasets from other regions around the world.

AbstractEuropean climate is associated with variability and changes in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. In this study, we aim to investigate potential future change in circulation over Europe by using the EURO-CORDEX regional climate projections at 0.11° grid mesh. In particular, we analyze future change in 500-hPa geopotential height (Gph), 500-hPa wind speed and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) addressing different warming levels of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. Simple scaling with the global mean temperature change is applied to the regional climate projections for monthly mean 500-hPa Gph and 500-hPa wind speed. Results from the ensemble mean of individual models show a robust increase in 500-hPa Gph and MSLP in winter over Mediterranean and Central Europe, indicating an intensification of anticyclonic circulation. This circulation change emerges robustly in most simulations within the coming decade. There are also enhanced westerlies which transport warm and moist air to the Mediterranean and Central Europe in winter and spring. It is also clear that, models showing different responses to circulation depend very much on the global climate model ensemble member in which they are nested. For all seasons, particularly autumn, the ensemble mean is much more correlated with the end of the century than most of the individual models. In general, the emergence of a scaled pattern appears rather quickly.

Accurate monitoring of the spatiotemporal dynamics of snow and ice is essential for under-standing and predicting the impacts of climate change on Arctic ecosystems and their feedback on global climate. Traditional optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) remote sensing still have limitations in the long-time series observation of polar regions. Although several studies have demonstrated the potential of moonlight remote sensing for mapping polar snow/ice covers, systematic evaluation on applying moonlight remote sensing to monitoring spatiotemporal dynamics of polar snow/ice covers, especially during polar night periods is highly demanded. Here we present a systematic assessment in Svalbard, Norway and using data taken from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) Day/Night Band (DNB) sensor to monitor the spatiotemporal dynamics of snow/ice covers during dark Arctic winters when no solar illumination available for months. We successfully revealed the spatiotemporal dynamics of snow/ice covers from 2012 to 2022 during polar night/winter periods, using the VIIRS/DNB time series data and the object-oriented Random Forests (RF) algorithm, achieving the average accuracy and kappa coefficient of 96.27% and 0.93, respectively. Our findings indicate that the polar snow/ice covers show seasonal and inter-seasonal dynamics, thus requiring more frequent observations. Our results confirm and realize the potential of moonlight remote sensing for continuous monitoring of snow/ice in the Arctic region and together with other types of remote sensing data, moonlight remote sensing will be a very useful tool for polar studies and climate change.

Turbulence and pressure fluctuations are key elements in the bed protection design of hydraulic structures. However, their roles in a hydraulic jump are not yet fully understood, and the nature of their relationships are not conclusive. In order to better understand the relationships between pressure fluctuations and flow characteristics of a hydraulic jump downstream of a weir, detailed measurements of flow kinematics using the nonintrusive techniques of particle image velocimetry and bubble image velocimetry and pressure using voltage-type pressure gauges were carried out in this study. The physical modeling of the hydraulic jump was carried out using the simultaneous measurements of pressure and turbulent flow properties. The distributions of flow properties, such as water level and velocity, were assessed in each case. Based on the measurements, the correlations between the pressure fluctuations and the variables were investigated by coupling the statistical values of the variables at the same points. The analysis results show that the water level and turbulence intensity are the main factors influencing the pressure fluctuations in the hydraulic jump. Using these factors, an empirical formula and dimensionless numbers are proposed to show that the pressure fluctuations depend on the bubble flow behavior.

A statement in this recently published paper makes a point that is largely at odds with the main point of the paper that is cited. Stating that higher air temperatures lead to greater evapotranspiration is an oversimplification; the true story is more complex. Although this is by no means central to the conclusions of the paper being commented on, we have demonstrated the danger in taking too literally the idea that air temperature determines potential evapotranspiration.

Finding a numerical method to model solute transport in porous media with high heterogeneity is crucial, especially when chemical reactions are involved. The phase space formulation termed the multi-advective water mixing approach (MAWMA) was proposed to address this issue. The water parcel method (WP) may be obtained by discretizing MAWMA in space, time, and velocity. WP needs two transition matrices of velocity to reproduce advection (Markovian in space) and mixing (Markovian in time), separately. The matrices express the transition probability of water instead of individual solute concentration. This entails a change in concept, since the entire transport phenomenon is defined by the water phase. Concentration is reduced to a chemical attribute. The water transition matrix is obtained and is demonstrated to be constant in time. Moreover, the WP method is compared with the classic random walk method (RW) in a high heterogeneous domain. Results show that the WP adequately reproduces advection and dispersion, but overestimates mixing because mixing is a sub-velocity phase process. The WP method must, therefore, be extended to take into account incomplete mixing within velocity classes.