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Abstract This study investigates the macroeconomic effects of adverse oil price shocks on a small oil-exporting economy — the Azerbaijan economy. We estimate a recursive (near) VAR model by using monthly macroeconomic data from 2006 to 2018. The results indicate the Azerbaijan economy is adversely influenced by an oil price decline. Specifically, we find that a negative oil price shock deteriorates trade balance, causes a currency depreciation, increases inflation and falls economic activity. Furthermore, our findings imply that the oil price-led devaluation shapes the inflationary and recessionary consequences of this shock.

The increasing depletion of natural resources, combined with a wider set of pressures on the environment, has, in recent years, highlighted the need for a more efficient use of energy and a development process that involves alternative energy sources. Energy efficiency has received much attention as a solution, implying both monetary and emissions savings. However, the latter may be partially offset by the income and demand effects of the former, both in more efficient sectors and in spreading to the wider economy. This is the problem of rebound effects. Taking Spain as a case study, and introducing an energy-related CGE model that develops the inclusion of renewables, this paper evaluates a combination of efficiency initiatives to deliver both reduced energy use by households and a more sustainable supply of energy. Our findings suggest that a package aimed at improving efficiency in household electricity and petroleum use, combined with a more competitive supply of energy from renewable sources, may be the only way to get reductions in all energy use, and thus benefit the economy. Specifically, we consider how this package may lead to positive economic impacts and associated rebound effects, where the latter are focused on a greener energy supply.

The Asia-Pacific region has the most rapidly growing energy demand in the world and will continue to have an increasing impact on world energy demand. Given the heterogeneity of economies in the region, any regional demand analysis has to be constructed country by country. In undertaking the demand forecasts provided in this study, scenarios were developed for high, low, and base cases that take into account variations in economic performance, prices, and fuel substitution in individual nations and in the region as a whole. China is included in the aggregate regional data provided in this article. Data from the countries of the former Soviet Union are not included in the regional totals in this article and are discussed separately in article 4.

Abstract Long distance power transmission is commonly considered as an option for reducing carbon footprint in future electricity systems. Accordingly, this article presents economic insights in a transcontinental power interconnection linking four Asian countries with Europe. Enhanced electricity trade through the interconnected countries is assessed via techno-economic modelling. For this purpose two electricity system scenarios are developed for the year 2040: (i) a Reference Scenario, where electricity system development follows the plans of the involved system operators and (ii) a so-called Trans-Asia Scenario, where additional power transmission capacities are added to strengthen the electricity trading route crossing the interconnected countries: Turkey, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Economic benefits arising from the proposed Trans-Asia Scenario are estimated as a change in social welfare in the electricity system. Modelling results show a 140 M€ increase in annual social welfare for the Trans-Asia Scenario. The subsequent cost-benefit analysis results in a net present value in the range of −221 M€ to 534 M€, at a discount rate of 4%. This implies that over a life-cycle period of 40 years, the evaluated economic benefit may compensate investments between 1598 M€ and 3251 M€ needed for the additional power transmission capacities.

Abstract Trading energy efficiency (TEE) is adopted by more and more countries to cope with global climate change. This article studies the effects of TEE by investigating an optimization model, and several interesting conclusions are obtained. Firstly, it is observed in the model that TEE stimulates energy efficiency innovation, that is, promotes the firms to increase innovation investments. Secondly, it is proved that TEE reduces the marginal emission and total emission of the firms, while outputs are promoted by TEE. Meanwhile, TEE does not reduce energy inputs. Finally, TEE under carbon tax performs better than that without carbon tax. Based on these results, to improve the energy efficiency and reduce the emission of greenhouse gases, it is suggested for the governments to adopt TEE with carbon tax.

Trends in energy intensities for 31 countries are evaluated, over the period from 1950 to 1988, using a purchasing power parity-based GDP measure and United Nations energy statistics. With non-commercial energy included, the energy intensities of low income countries are similar to those of high income countries. Energy intensities have decreased for 15 out of the 31 countries studied. The analysis indicates that there is a level of energy intensity, between 0.25 and 0.5 toe per 1000 (1980) international dollars, to which many countries are converging. Energy use per capita increases with higher incomes, but cross-country comparisons can be misleading and inappropriate due to large differences in, for example, economic structure and climate. Electricity appears to be the energy carrier of choice for advanced economies, leading to increased use of electricity relative to other energy carriers. Electricity intensities for eight industrialized countries are evaluated. In four countries, electricity intensities have decreased in recent years. This result suggests that electricity intensities may develop similarly to how energy intensities have developed as economic structure and energy end-use efficiency continue to change.

Abstract This study reviews the relevant literature on oil price impacts and then applies both asymptotic and bootstrap distribution techniques to model various oil price shocks and to subsequently evaluate their impacts on key macroeconomic variables in Liberia. First, we find that different oil shock measures yield different effects. Second, asymmetries in oil price exist and can be explained by Liberia's lack of structured financial markets and tight monetary policy controls. Third, the impact of oil shocks on all variables is limited to the short-run. Fourth, unlike most developed economies, falling oil price regimes yield no benefits to economic growth in the short-run, but rising oil prices appear to stimulate the Liberian economy. Therefore, we argue that when oil price increases in Liberia, the high costs of reallocating resources from oil-intensive sectors lead to labor intensiveness; whose contribution to Liberian GDP by far exceeds that of oil. Hence, a general insight from the study is that where substitution possibilities exist, rising oil prices lead to high labor and capital intensity and could have off-setting effects depending on the contribution of these factors to GDP. Thus, falling oil price regimes in Liberia should witness policy measures aimed at boosting the service sector.

Identifying the drivers of carbon dioxide emissions in the manufacturing industry is vital for developing effective environmental policies. This study adopts provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013 and uses nonparametric additive regression models to analyze the drivers of CO2 emissions in the industry. The results show that the nonlinear effect of economic growth on CO2 emissions supports the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Energy structure has an inverted “U-shape” effect owing to massive coal consumption in the early stages and the optimization of energy structure in the later stage. The inverted “U-shaped” impact of industrialization may be due to the priority development of heavy industry in the early stages and the optimization of industrial structure in the later stages. The impact of urbanization also exhibits an inverted “U-shaped” pattern because of mass consumption of steel and cement products in the early stages and the advancement in clean energy technologies at the later stages. However, specific energy consumption has a positive “U-shaped” impact because of the difference in the speed of technological progress at different times. Thus, the differential effects of these indicators at different times should be taken into consideration when discussing reduction of CO2 emissions in China's manufacturing industry.

Abstract Herein a novel path is analysed for its economic viability to synergize the production of biomethane and dimethyl ether from biogas. We conduct a profitability analysis based on the discounted cash flow method. The results revealed an unprofitable process with high cost/revenues ratios. Profitable scenarios would be reached by setting prohibitive DME prices (1983–5566 €/t) or very high feed-in tariffs subsidies (95.22 €/MWh in the best case scenario). From the cost reduction side, the analysis revealed the need of reducing investment costs. For this purpose, we propose a percentage of investment as incentive scheme. Although the size increase benefits cost/revenues ratio, only the 1000 m3/h biogas plant size will reach profitability if 90% of the investment is subsidized. A sensitivity analysis to check the influence of some important economical parameters is also included. Overall this study evidences the big challenge that our society faces in the way towards a circular economy.