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Mesocosm experiments have become increasingly popular in climate change research as they bridge the gap between small-scale, less realistic, microcosm experiments, and large-scale, more complex, natural systems. Characteristics of aquatic mesocosm designs (e.g., mesocosm volume, study duration, and replication) vary widely, potentially affecting the magnitude and direction of effect sizes measured in experiments. In this global systematic review we aim to identify the type, direction and strength of climate warming effects on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems in mesocosm experiments. Furthermore, we will investigate the context-dependency of the observed effects on several a priori determined effect moderators (ecological and methodological). Our conclusions will provide recommendations for aquatic scientists designing mesocosm experiments, as well as guidelines for interpretation of experimental results by scientists, policy-makers and the general public. We will conduct a systematic search using multiple online databases to gather evidence from the scientific literature on the effects of warming experimentally tested in aquatic mesocosms. Data from relevant studies will be extracted and used in a random effects meta-analysis to estimate the overall effect sizes of warming experiments on species performance, biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Experimental characteristics (e.g., mesocosm size and shape, replication-level, experimental duration and design, biogeographic region, community type, crossed manipulation) will be further analysed using subgroup analyses.

Cross-ecosystem subsidies are important as their recipients often rely on them to supplementin situresource availability. Global warming has the potential to alter the quality and quantity of these subsidies, but our knowledge of these effects is currently limited. Here, we quantified the biomass and diversity of the invertebrates exchanged between freshwater streams and terrestrial grasslands in a natural warming experiment in Iceland. We sampled invertebrates emerging from the streams, those landing on the water surface, ground-dwelling invertebrates falling into the streams, and those drifting through the streams. Emerging invertebrate biomass or diversity did not change with increasing temperature, suggesting no effect of warming on aquatic subsidies to the terrestrial environment over the 1-month duration of the study. The biomass and diversity of aerial invertebrates of terrestrial origin landing on the streams increased with temperature, underpinned by increasing abundance and species richness, indicating that the greater productivity of the warmer streams may attract more foraging insects. The biomass of ground-dwelling invertebrates falling into the streams also increased with temperature, underpinned by increasing body mass and species evenness, suggesting that soil warming leads to terrestrial communities dominated by larger, more mobile organisms, and thus more in-fall to the streams. The biomass and diversity of terrestrial invertebrates in the drift decreased with temperature, however, underpinned by decreasing abundance and species richness, reflecting upstream consumption due to the higher energetic demands of aquatic consumers in warmer environments. These results highlight the potential for asynchronous responses to warming for reciprocal subsidies between aquatic and terrestrial environments and the importance of further research on warming impacts at the interface of these interdependent ecosystems.

Despite a growing literature on the climate response to solar geoengineering—proposals to cool the planet by increasing the planetary albedo—there has been little published on the impacts of solar geoengineering on natural and human systems such as agriculture, health, water resources, and ecosystems. An understanding of the impacts of different scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment will be crucial for informing decisions on whether and how to deploy it. Here we review the current state of knowledge about impacts of a solar‐geoengineered climate and identify the major research gaps. We suggest that a thorough assessment of the climate impacts of a range of scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment is needed and can be built upon existing frameworks. However, solar geoengineering poses a novel challenge for climate impacts research as the manner of deployment could be tailored to pursue different objectives making possible a wide range of climate outcomes. We present a number of ideas for approaches to extend the survey of climate impacts beyond standard scenarios of solar geoengineering deployment to address this challenge. Reducing the impacts of climate change is the fundamental motivator for emissions reductions and for considering whether and how to deploy solar geoengineering. This means that the active engagement of the climate impacts research community will be important for improving the overall understanding of the opportunities, challenges, and risks presented by solar geoengineering.

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

The effects of changes in climate predicted for 2100—reduction in recharge, increase in water demand and sea-level rise—on groundwater volume and saltwater intrusion have been quantified in the Maltese Islands, an archipelago located at the center of the Mediterranean Sea. A three-dimensional density dependent and heterogeneous model, working in transient conditions, was developed based on morphological and geological information. The hydraulic conductivity and porosity of the lithological formations were derived from previous tests and studies conducted on the islands. The complex fault system intersecting the area has also been included in the model. The results show that among the three considered factors affecting groundwater resources, the most significant is the increase in water demand, which is closely followed by the decrease in groundwater recharge. Sea-level rise plays a marginal role. The 80-year simulation period showed that these combined impacts would cause a loss of more than 16% of groundwater volume.