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Abstract Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a potential significant mitigation strategy to combat climate change and ocean acidification. The technology is well understood but its current implementation must be scaled up nearly by a hundredfold to become an effective tool that helps meet mitigation targets. Regulations require monitoring and verification at storage sites, and reliable monitoring strategies for detection and quantification of seepage of the stored carbon need to be developed. The Cseep method was developed for reliable determination of CO2 seepage signal in seawater by estimating and filtering out natural variations in dissolved inorganic carbon (C). In this work, we analysed data from the first-ever subsea CO2 release experiment performed in the north-western North Sea by the EU STEMM−CCS project. We successfully demonstrated the ability of the Cseep method to (i) predict natural C variations around the Goldeneye site over seasonal to interannual time scales; (ii) establish a process-based baseline C concentration with minimal variability; (iii) determine CO2 seepage detection threshold (DT) to reliably differentiate released−CO2 signal from natural variability and quantify released−CO2 dissolved in the sampled seawater. DT values were around 20 % of the natural C variations indicating high sensitivity of the method. Moreover, with the availability of DT value, the identification of released−CO2 required no pre-knowledge of seepage occurrence, but we used additional available information to assess the confidence of the results. Overall, the Cseep method features high sensitivity, automation suitability, and represents a powerful future monitoring tool both for large and confined marine areas.

Abstract Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

Abstract Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key technology to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes in a feasible, substantial, and timely manner. For geological CO2 storage to be safe, reliable, and accepted by society, robust strategies for CO2 leakage detection, quantification and management are crucial. The STEMM-CCS (Strategies for Environmental Monitoring of Marine Carbon Capture and Storage) project aimed to provide techniques and understanding to enable and inform cost-effective monitoring of CCS sites in the marine environment. A controlled CO2 release experiment was carried out in the central North Sea, designed to mimic an unintended emission of CO2 from a subsurface CO2 storage site to the seafloor. A total of 675 kg of CO2 were released into the shallow sediments (∼3 m below seafloor), at flow rates between 6 and 143 kg/d. A combination of novel techniques, adapted versions of existing techniques, and well-proven standard techniques were used to detect, characterise and quantify gaseous and dissolved CO2 in the sediments and the overlying seawater. This paper provides an overview of this ambitious field experiment. We describe the preparatory work prior to the release experiment, the experimental layout and procedures, the methods tested, and summarise the main results and the lessons learnt.

The carbonate chemistry of the world’s oceans, including their pH, has been remarkably constant for hundreds of thousands of years (Pearson and Palmer, 2000), with typical surface ocean variations between ice ages and warm phases of no more than 0.2 pH units ([Sanyal et al., 1995], [Honisch and Hemming, 2005] and [Foster, 2008]). However, since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the oceans have taken up approximately 30% of the CO2 produced from fossil fuel burning, cement manufacture and land use changes (Sabine et al., 2004). While the invasion of CO2 into the ocean removes this greenhouse gas from the atmosphere and thereby dampens global warming, it forms carbonic acid in seawater and lowers ambient surface ocean pH (Broecker and Peng, 1982). Ocean acidification is the direct consequence of the excessive addition of CO2 to seawater (Broecker and Takahashi, 1977) and is therefore inherently more predictable than temperature and precipitation changes due to rising CO2 in the atmosphere. Changes are already measurable today ([Bates, 2001], [Bates et al., 2002], [Takahashi et al., 2003], [Keeling et al., 2004] and [Santana-Casiano et al., 2007]) and will become more pronounced as humankind emits more CO2 into the atmosphere, with surface ocean pH expected to decline by a further 0.3 pH units by the end of the century, corresponding to an approximately 100% increase in ocean acidity (hydrogen ion concentration [H+]), on top of the not, vert, similar0.1 pH unit decline to date ([Caldeira and Wickett, 2003], [Orr et al., 2005] and Solomon et al., 2007 In: S. Solomon et al., Editors, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2007).[Solomon et al., 2007]) (Fig. 1). Such a rapid change in ocean pH has very likely not happened since the time the dinosaurs went extinct 65 million years ago ([van der Burgh et al., 1993], [Pearson and Palmer, 2000] and [Pagani et al., 2005]). While the dissolution of carbonate sediments on the bottom of the ocean and the weathering of rocks on land coupled with mixing of surface and deeper waters will eventually restore ocean pH to its pre-industrial state, this process will take up to a million years to complete ([Archer, 2005] and [Ridgwell and Zeebe, 2005]).

Abstract We investigated the effect of an artificial CO2 vent (0.0015−0.037 mol s−1), simulating a leak from a reservoir for carbon capture and storage (CCS), on the sediment geochemistry. CO2 was injected 3 m deep into the seafloor at 120 m depth. With increasing mass flow an increasing number of vents were observed, distributed over an area of approximately 3 m. In situ profiling with microsensors for pH, T, O2 and ORP showed the geochemical effects are localized in a small area around the vents and highly variable. In measurements remote from the vent, the pH reached a value of 7.6 at a depth of 0.06 m. In a CO2 venting channel, pH reduced to below 5. Steep temperature profiles were indicative of a heat source inside the sediment. Elevated total alkalinity and Ca2+ levels showed calcite dissolution. Venting decreased sulfate reduction rates, but not aerobic respiration. A transport-reaction model confirmed that a large fraction of the injected CO2 is transported laterally into the sediment and that the reactions between CO2 and sediment generate enough heat to elevate the temperature significantly. A CO2 leak will have only local consequences for sediment biogeochemistry, and only a small fraction of the escaped CO2 will reach the sediment surface.

The health of the ocean, central to human well-being, has now reached a critical point. Most fish stocks are overexploited, climate change and increased dissolved carbon dioxide are changing ocean chemistry and disrupting species throughout food webs, and the fundamental capacity of the ocean to regulate the climate has been altered. However, key technical, organizational, and conceptual scientific barriers have prevented the identification of policy levers for sustainability and transformative action. Here, we recommend key strategies to address these challenges, including (1) stronger integration of sciences and (2) ocean-observing systems, (3) improved science-policy interfaces, (4) new partnerships supported by (5) a new ocean-climate finance system, and (6) improved ocean literacy and education to modify social norms and behaviors. Adopting these strategies could help establish ocean science as a key foundation of broader sustainability transformations.