• Energy Research
• Australian Research Council (ARC) close
• 11. Sustainability close
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Energy mix persistence is a defining characteristic of energy systems, for reasons including the long‐lived nature of energy infrastructure and the role of local endowments. This persistence is evident in current energy‐type use being strongly influenced by past use. Our analysis uses data for eight energy types and a large sample of countries, finding varying degrees of energy mix persistence. We also find evidence that carbon pricing appears to have played a key role in tilting energy mixes from coal towards renewable energy. Our estimates provide empirical support to policymakers seeking to implement carbon pricing to transition their energy systems in a lower‐carbon direction.

A field study was conducted on two texturally different soils to determine the influences of biosolids application on selected soil chemical properties and carbon dioxide fluxes. Two sites, located in Manildra (clay loam) and Grenfell (sandy loam), in Australia, were treated at a single level of 70 Mg ha-1 biosolids. Soil samples were analyzed for SOC fractions, including total organic carbon (TOC), labile, and non-labile carbon contents. The natural abundances of soil δ13C and δ15N were measured as isotopic tracers to fingerprint carbon derived from biosolids. An automated soil respirometer was used to measure in-situ diurnal CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, and temperature. Application of biosolids increased the surface (0-15 cm) soil TOC by > 45% at both sites, which was attributed to the direct contribution from residual carbon in the biosolids and also from the increased biomass production. At both sites application of biosolids increased the non-labile carbon fraction that is stable against microbial decomposition, which indicated the soil carbon sequestration potential of biosolids. Soils amended with biosolids showed depleted δ13C, and enriched δ15N indicating the accumulation of biosolids residual carbon in soils. The in-situ respirometer data demonstrated enhanced CO2 fluxes at the sites treated with biosolids, indicating limited carbon sequestration potential. However, addition of biosolids on both the clay loam and sandy loam soils found to be effective in building SOC than reducing it. Soil temperature and CO2 fluxes, indicating that temperature was more important for microbial degradation of carbon in biosolids than soil moisture.

AbstractRising atmospheric [CO2] and associated climate change are expected to modify primary productivity across a range of ecosystems globally. Increasing aridity is predicted to reduce grassland productivity, although rising [CO2] and associated increases in plant water use efficiency may partially offset the effect of drying on growth. Difficulties arise in predicting the direction and magnitude of future changes in ecosystem productivity, due to limited field experimentation investigating climate and CO2 interactions. We use repeat near‐surface digital photography to quantify the effects of water availability and experimentally manipulated elevated [CO2] (eCO2) on understorey live foliage cover and biomass over three growing seasons in a temperate grassy woodland in south‐eastern Australia. We hypothesised that (i) understorey herbaceous productivity is dependent upon soil water availability, and (ii) that eCO2 will increase productivity, with greatest stimulation occurring under conditions of low water availability. Soil volumetric water content (VWC) determined foliage cover and growth rates over the length of the growing season (August to March), with low VWC (<0.1 m3 m−3) reducing productivity. However, eCO2 did not increase herbaceous cover and biomass over the duration of the experiment, or mitigate the effects of low water availability on understorey growth rates and cover. Our findings suggest that projected increases in aridity in temperate woodlands are likely to lead to reduced understorey productivity, with little scope for eCO2 to offset these changes.

Abstract We evaluated three Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs: IGSM, MERGE, MiniCAM) by: (i) comparing their global Primary Energy year-2000 initializations and projections for 2010 and 2015 to historical data; (ii) mapping their CO2 emissions projections against observations; and (iii) examining model-output diagnostics. The IAMs underestimated historical primary energy consumption and initial/projected CO2 emissions in both reference and stabilization scenarios (particularly for combustion fuels) but overestimated usage of non-biomass renewables, causing underestimates of future CO2 emissions that, for the stabilization scenarios, are wildly optimistic. Mitigation technology breakdowns in the policy scenarios vary enormously across IAMs, suggesting that confidence in their projections might be misplaced, or that options for mitigation have greater scope than is supposed. Most increases in carbon-free technologies in the stabilization scenarios are already captured in the reference cases. Energy-conversion efficiencies in electricity generation improve over time, but, (except for gas-powered generation in IGSM), efficiencies in the policy scenarios are less than in the reference. Electrification results diverge widely: IGSM has little change over the 21st century, while MiniCAM and MERGE have major electrification increases in their policy scenarios. We suggest: 1) comprehensive model output suitable for secondary analysis should be more readily available; 2) directly comparable reference and policy-driven mitigation scenarios are essential for assessing mitigation measures; 3) model validation using historical, source-specific energy data is crucial for assessing model credibility; 4) separation of mitigation contributions into no-policy and policy-driven amounts is needed to assess the effectiveness of mitigation policies; and 5) detailed inter-model comparisons can provide important insights into model credibility.

AbstractMultinational conservation initiatives that prioritize investment across a region invariably navigate trade-offs among multiple objectives. It seems logical to focus where several objectives can be achieved efficiently, but such multi-objective hotspots may be ecologically inappropriate, or politically inequitable. Here we devise a framework to facilitate a regionally cohesive set of marine-protected areas driven by national preferences and supported by quantitative conservation prioritization analyses, and illustrate it using the Coral Triangle Initiative. We identify areas important for achieving six objectives to address ecosystem representation, threatened fauna, connectivity and climate change. We expose trade-offs between areas that contribute substantially to several objectives and those meeting one or two objectives extremely well. Hence there are two strategies to guide countries choosing to implement regional goals nationally: multi-objective hotspots and complementary sets of single-objective priorities. This novel framework is applicable to any multilateral or global initiative seeking to apply quantitative information in decision making.

Drought threatens tropical rainforests over seasonal to decadal timescales, but the drivers of tree mortality following drought remain poorly understood. It has been suggested that reduced availability of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) critically increases mortality risk through insufficient carbon supply to metabolism ('carbon starvation'). However, little is known about how NSC stores are affected by drought, especially over the long term, and whether they are more important than hydraulic processes in determining drought-induced mortality. Using data from the world's longest-running experimental drought study in tropical rainforest (in the Brazilian Amazon), we test whether carbon starvation or deterioration of the water-conducting pathways from soil to leaf trigger tree mortality. Biomass loss from mortality in the experimentally droughted forest increased substantially after >10 years of reduced soil moisture availability. The mortality signal was dominated by the death of large trees, which were at a much greater risk of hydraulic deterioration than smaller trees. However, we find no evidence that the droughted trees suffered carbon starvation, as their NSC concentrations were similar to those of non-droughted trees, and growth rates did not decline in either living or dying trees. Our results indicate that hydraulics, rather than carbon starvation, triggers tree death from drought in tropical rainforest.

Widespread tree mortality associated with drought has been observed on all forested continents and global change is expected to exacerbate vegetation vulnerability. Forest mortality has implications for future biosphere-atmosphere interactions of carbon, water and energy balance, and is poorly represented in dynamic vegetation models. Reducing uncertainty requires improved mortality projections founded on robust physiological processes. However, the proposed mechanisms of drought-induced mortality, including hydraulic failure and carbon starvation, are unresolved. A growing number of empirical studies have investigated these mechanisms, but data have not been consistently analysed across species and biomes using a standardized physiological framework. Here, we show that xylem hydraulic failure was ubiquitous across multiple tree taxa at drought-induced mortality. All species assessed had 60% or higher loss of xylem hydraulic conductivity, consistent with proposed theoretical and modelled survival thresholds. We found diverse responses in non-structural carbohydrate reserves at mortality, indicating that evidence supporting carbon starvation was not universal. Reduced non-structural carbohydrates were more common for gymnosperms than angiosperms, associated with xylem hydraulic vulnerability, and may have a role in reducing hydraulic function. Our finding that hydraulic failure at drought-induced mortality was persistent across species indicates that substantial improvement in vegetation modelling can be achieved using thresholds in hydraulic function.